Gingrich Dropping in Polls. Ron Paul Poised For Possible Upset In Iowa??

it's the only place in the country paul is in double digits, i think.

if he wins iowa, that's better for romney.

but nationally he doesn't get above about 9%

Don't forget NH. Real Clear Politics average has him 3rd at 18.7% in NH.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/ep...ire_republican_presidential_primary-1581.html

Do you wonder why he's polling over twice as high in Iowa & NH than he is nationally? It's because right now, Iowa and NH are all that matter. Ron Paul isn't campaining to the country, he's campaigning to the relevant states one by one.
 
There has been some major movement in the Republican Presidential race in Iowa over the last week, with what was a 9 point lead for Newt Gingrich now all the way down to a single point. Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for [Ron] Paul with Mitt Romney at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%.

Gingrich has dropped 5 points in the last week and he's also seen a significant decline in his favorability numbers. Last week he was at +31 (62/31) and he's now dropped 19 points to +12 (52/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%.

And this is key: "Paul's supporters are considerably more committed to him than Gingrich's are. 77% of current Paul voters say they're definitely going to vote for him, compared to only 54% for Gingrich."

Ron Paul: Poised For An Upset In Iowa?

Please-dont-feed-the-trolls.jpg
 
he's an idiot whose idea of "foreign policy" is naive and ignorant; he knows less than zero about the constitution
Do you believe we should have a strong military presence overseas?

I feel we do....just to stabilize key regions in the world. I know it sounds strange, but if we weren't there, I believe we could see a lot more economies crash and cause a ripple effect throughout the world. We can't go back to a 1800's mentality....the wheel has been invented and we can't go back.
Thanks for this realistic view of the world, the way it is, not just the way we'd like it to be. We're there, people have hope. We leave, hope goes away. There's a price to pay for freedom in the world, but a higher price when there isn't any freedom. And you're right, we can't go back.
 
There has been some major movement in the Republican Presidential race in Iowa over the last week, with what was a 9 point lead for Newt Gingrich now all the way down to a single point. Gingrich is at 22% to 21% for [Ron] Paul with Mitt Romney at 16%, Michele Bachmann at 11%, Rick Perry at 9%, Rick Santorum at 8%, Jon Huntsman at 5%, and Gary Johnson at 1%.

Gingrich has dropped 5 points in the last week and he's also seen a significant decline in his favorability numbers. Last week he was at +31 (62/31) and he's now dropped 19 points to +12 (52/40). The attacks on him appear to be taking a heavy toll- his support with Tea Party voters has declined from 35% to 24%.

And this is key: "Paul's supporters are considerably more committed to him than Gingrich's are. 77% of current Paul voters say they're definitely going to vote for him, compared to only 54% for Gingrich."

Ron Paul: Poised For An Upset In Iowa?

It's one poll so not too much should be read into it. If you start seeing three or four polls like this, it gets interesting.

This whole race has been the conservative base wanting to find somebody - anybody - other than Romney. So they vault whomever is the flavour of the month to the top of the polls until their brutal flaws get exposed. The spotlight has now been turned on Newt. Newt has more baggage than anyone else in the race. Will this matter? I think Newt has more staying power than the other pretenders. But if Newt falls back down, it will be zero surprise.
 
it's the only place in the country paul is in double digits, i think.

if he wins iowa, that's better for romney.

but nationally he doesn't get above about 9%

Don't forget NH. Real Clear Politics average has him 3rd at 18.7% in NH.
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary

Do you wonder why he's polling over twice as high in Iowa & NH than he is nationally? It's because right now, Iowa and NH are all that matter. Ron Paul isn't campaining to the country, he's campaigning to the relevant states one by one.

Over the next couple of weeks the best strategy he can employ is switch over his focus all the way to New Hampshire. He has to get AT LEAST second place in New Hampshire to legitimize a win in Iowa. New Hampshire gets more media attention if he can work his way up in the polls in New Hampshire before the Iowa caucus and keep his organization in Iowa strong it will help him win Iowa and will help him win or at least finish strong in New Hampshire.
 

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