George Friedman on Egypt

[ekrem]

Egypt
Egypt is, in essence, the Nile River Delta — the country’s entire culture and population is limited to a narrow valley surrounded by a mass of desert. Even at the height of Egypt’s power during the Pharaonic Age, it only very rarely projected power beyond its core in the Nile region. Content to live on the Nile, Egypt never felt the pressure of other impinging cultures — until those others developed technologies that allowed them to overcome the desert barriers that made the Egyptians feel so safe. This explains why for nearly 2,500 years Egypt remained under the control of various dominions — Persian, Greek, Roman, Arab, and Turkic — and why, even since the 1952 founding of the Egyptian republic at the hands of pan-Arab nationalists under the leadership of Gamal Abdel-Nasser, Cairo has been unable to achieve its goal of being the leader of the Arab world.

Like Israel and Saudi Arabia, modern Egypt also has heavily relied on alignment with great powers. During the days of the monarchy, Cairo was closely tied with the British. Under the Nasserite regime, Egypt spent 20 years in alignment with the Soviet Union. In the 1970s, the Egyptians joined the Western camp and made peace with Israel, which has enabled Cairo to further its regional ambitions as the main mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Since then, Egypt has been the main ally through which Washington has managed Arab-Israeli affairs.

But the 9/11 attacks forced the United States to move beyond Egypt and work with other regional players as well, a process that will only accelerate under the Obama administration. Between Washington’s willingness to pursue relations with Iran and a potential rehabilitation of Syria, Egypt’s favored position is fast deteriorating. As it is, Cairo has to live with the fact that Saudi Arabia is the real leader of the Arab world (due to its oil resources). Ironically, the one thing that could raise Egypt’s profile in the eyes of the United States is potential instability at home amid the eventual leadership transition away from 80-year-old President Hosni Mubarak. The United States would have an interest in making sure that Islamist forces did not take advantage of the transition.

Free Article for Non-Members | STRATFOR

Egypt, for example, is directly hostile to Hamas, a religious movement amid a sea of essentially secular Arab states. Hamas’ roots are in Egypt’s largest Islamist movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, which the Egyptian state has historically considered its main domestic threat. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s regime has moved aggressively against Egyptian Islamists and sees Hamas’ ideology as a threat, as it could spread back to Egypt. For this and other reasons, Egypt has maintained its own blockade of Gaza. Egypt is much closer to Fatah, whose ideology derives from Egyptian secularism, and for this reason, Hamas deeply distrusts Cairo.
(...)
The most important change for Israel would not be unity among the Palestinians, but a shift in Egyptian policy back toward the position it held prior to Camp David. Egypt is the center of gravity of the Arab world, the largest country and formerly the driving force behind Arab unity. It was the power Israel feared above all others. But Egypt under Mubarak has shifted its stance versus the Palestinians, and far more important, allowed Egypt’s military capability to atrophy.

Should Mubarak’s successor choose to align with these forces and move to rebuild Egypt’s military capability, however, Israel would face a very different regional equation.

The Limits of Public Opinion: Arabs, Israelis and the Strategic Balance | STRATFOR

The single most important neighbor Israel has is Egypt. When energized, it is the center of gravity of the Arab world. Under former President Gamal Abdul Nasser, Egypt drove Arab hostility to Israel. Once Anwar Sadat reversed Nasser’s strategy on Israel, the Jewish state was basically secure. Other Arab nations could not threaten it unless Egypt was part of the equation. And for nearly 30 years, Egypt has not been part of the equation. But if Egypt were to reverse its position, Israel would, over time, find itself much less comfortable. Though Saudi Arabia has recently overshadowed Egypt’s role in the Arab world, the Egyptians can always opt back into a strong leadership position and use their strength to threaten Israel. This becomes especially important as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s health fails and questions are raised about whether his successors will be able to maintain control of the country while the Muslim Brotherhood spearheads a campaign to demand political reform.

As we have said, Gaza is part of the Mediterranean coastal system. Egypt controlled Gaza until 1967 and retained influence there afterward, but not in the West Bank. Hamas also was influenced by Egypt, but not by Mubarak’s government. Hamas was an outgrowth of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, which the Mubarak regime has done a fairly good job of containing, primarily through force.
(...)
Hamas’ long-term strategy — indeed, the only hope of the Palestinians who not prepared to accept a compromise with Israel — is for Egypt to change its tune toward Israel, which could very well involve energizing Islamist forces in Egypt and bringing about the fall of the Mubarak regime. That is the key to any solution for Hamas.

The Geopolitics of the Palestinians | STRATFOR

Hamas is a religious movement, with roots in Egypt and support from Saudi Arabia. Unlike Fatah, Hamas says it is unwilling to recognize the existence of Israel as a legitimate state, and it appears to be quite serious about this. While there seem to be some elements in Hamas that could consider a shift, this is not the consensus view. Iran also provides support, but the Sunni-Shiite split is real and Iran is mostly fishing in troubled waters. Hamas will take help where it can get it, but Hamas is, to a significant degree, funded by the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, so getting too close to Iran would create political problems for Hamas’ leadership. In addition, though Cairo has to deal with Hamas because of the Egypt-Gaza border, Cairo is at best deeply suspicions of the group. Egypt sees Hamas as deriving from the same bedrock of forces that gave birth to the Muslim Brotherhood and those who killed Anwar Sadat, forces which pose the greatest future challenge to Egyptian stability. As a result, Egypt continues to be Israel’s silent partner in the blockade of Gaza.

Israeli-Palestinian Peace Talks, Again | STRATFOR

 

[ekrem]

Decade Forecast: 2010-2020
Middle East

By 2020, Egypt will be changing from the type of country it has been since the 1970s — for the past generation it has lacked the capacity to influence developments beyond its borders.
Like Turkey, Egypt is caught between secularism and Islam, and that tension could continue paralyzing it.
However, as Turkey rises, Ankara will need a large source of cheap labor and markets for exports.
The result will be a “coattails” effect for Egypt.
With this synergetic fortification we expect not only an end to Egyptian quiescence, but increased friction between Egypt and all other regional players.
In particular, Israel will be searching for the means to maintain its balance between the powerful Turkey and the re-emerging Egypt.
This will shape all of its foreign — and domestic — policies.

Free Article for Non-Members | STRATFOR

 

[ekrem]

 

[georgephillip]

Juan Cole includes the following post on Informed Comment 1/29/11:

"Nobelist in chemistry, Dr. Ahmed Zewail of the California Institute of Technology, is an Egyptian-American who has sometimes been mentioned as a candidate for president of Egypt. He has served as a science envoy to the Arab world of President Obama.

"In an interview on Aljazeera Arabic, Zewail called for fundamental change in Egypt, not just cosmetic alterations. He gave as the causes for the current uprising:

"1. Power games among the elite, competition over the succession to President Hosni Mubarak, lack of transparency and phony elections.

"2. The economic situation: the masses of the poor have been left behind, the situation of the middle class has actually gone backward, while a small elite at the top benefits from what economic progress there is– because of a marriage of power and capital.

"3. Corruption and constant demands for bribes by officials.

"4. Education: The deterioration of the education system, which is central to every Egyptian household’s hopes of progress, to a state that does not in any way reflect Egypt’s standing in the world."

Class war comes to Cairo too, it seems.

What would happen if Americans demanding Wall Street prosecutions took to the streets in the same numbers as Egyptians?

Change and Hope?

 

[Intense]

Juan Cole includes the following post on Informed Comment 1/29/11:

"Nobelist in chemistry, Dr. Ahmed Zewail of the California Institute of Technology, is an Egyptian-American who has sometimes been mentioned as a candidate for president of Egypt. He has served as a science envoy to the Arab world of President Obama.

"In an interview on Aljazeera Arabic, Zewail called for fundamental change in Egypt, not just cosmetic alterations. He gave as the causes for the current uprising:

"1. Power games among the elite, competition over the succession to President Hosni Mubarak, lack of transparency and phony elections.

"2. The economic situation: the masses of the poor have been left behind, the situation of the middle class has actually gone backward, while a small elite at the top benefits from what economic progress there is– because of a marriage of power and capital.

"3. Corruption and constant demands for bribes by officials.

"4. Education: The deterioration of the education system, which is central to every Egyptian household’s hopes of progress, to a state that does not in any way reflect Egypt’s standing in the world."

Class war comes to Cairo too, it seems.

What would happen if Americans demanding Wall Street prosecutions took to the streets in the same numbers as Egyptians?

Change and Hope?

What kind of Bullshit are you trying to solicit Dip Shit. You want to know how burning Rioting and looting end up? Let me buy you a one way ticket to Cairo or Tehran, you stupid Fuck. Have a nice day. Maybe you can find a better pastime than inciting Chaos you Stupid piece of Shit. You are in the Minority here, out numbered 100 to 1 at best, Moron.

 

[Truthmatters]

Do you remember the American people once protested in the streets the oppressive powers of a dictator?

 

[Trajan]

Egypt
Egypt is, in essence, the Nile River Delta — the country’s entire culture and population is limited to a narrow valley surrounded by a mass of desert. Even at the height of Egypt’s power during the Pharaonic Age, it only very rarely projected power beyond its core in the Nile region. Content to live on the Nile, Egypt never felt the pressure of other impinging cultures — until those others developed technologies that allowed them to overcome the desert barriers that made the Egyptians feel so safe. This explains why for nearly 2,500 years Egypt remained under the control of various dominions — Persian, Greek, Roman, Arab, and Turkic — and why, even since the 1952 founding of the Egyptian republic at the hands of pan-Arab nationalists under the leadership of Gamal Abdel-Nasser, Cairo has been unable to achieve its goal of being the leader of the Arab world.

Like Israel and Saudi Arabia, modern Egypt also has heavily relied on alignment with great powers. During the days of the monarchy, Cairo was closely tied with the British. Under the Nasserite regime, Egypt spent 20 years in alignment with the Soviet Union. In the 1970s, the Egyptians joined the Western camp and made peace with Israel, which has enabled Cairo to further its regional ambitions as the main mediator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Since then, Egypt has been the main ally through which Washington has managed Arab-Israeli affairs.

But the 9/11 attacks forced the United States to move beyond Egypt and work with other regional players as well, a process that will only accelerate under the Obama administration. Between Washington’s willingness to pursue relations with Iran and a potential rehabilitation of Syria, Egypt’s favored position is fast deteriorating. As it is, Cairo has to live with the fact that Saudi Arabia is the real leader of the Arab world (due to its oil resources). Ironically, the one thing that could raise Egypt’s profile in the eyes of the United States is potential instability at home amid the eventual leadership transition away from 80-year-old President Hosni Mubarak. The United States would have an interest in making sure that Islamist forces did not take advantage of the transition.

Free Article for Non-Members | STRATFOR

Egypt, for example, is directly hostile to Hamas, a religious movement amid a sea of essentially secular Arab states. Hamas’ roots are in Egypt’s largest Islamist movement, the Muslim Brotherhood, which the Egyptian state has historically considered its main domestic threat. Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s regime has moved aggressively against Egyptian Islamists and sees Hamas’ ideology as a threat, as it could spread back to Egypt. For this and other reasons, Egypt has maintained its own blockade of Gaza. Egypt is much closer to Fatah, whose ideology derives from Egyptian secularism, and for this reason, Hamas deeply distrusts Cairo.
(...)
The most important change for Israel would not be unity among the Palestinians, but a shift in Egyptian policy back toward the position it held prior to Camp David. Egypt is the center of gravity of the Arab world, the largest country and formerly the driving force behind Arab unity. It was the power Israel feared above all others. But Egypt under Mubarak has shifted its stance versus the Palestinians, and far more important, allowed Egypt’s military capability to atrophy.

Should Mubarak’s successor choose to align with these forces and move to rebuild Egypt’s military capability, however, Israel would face a very different regional equation.

The Limits of Public Opinion: Arabs, Israelis and the Strategic Balance | STRATFOR

The single most important neighbor Israel has is Egypt. When energized, it is the center of gravity of the Arab world. Under former President Gamal Abdul Nasser, Egypt drove Arab hostility to Israel. Once Anwar Sadat reversed Nasser’s strategy on Israel, the Jewish state was basically secure. Other Arab nations could not threaten it unless Egypt was part of the equation. And for nearly 30 years, Egypt has not been part of the equation. But if Egypt were to reverse its position, Israel would, over time, find itself much less comfortable. Though Saudi Arabia has recently overshadowed Egypt’s role in the Arab world, the Egyptians can always opt back into a strong leadership position and use their strength to threaten Israel. This becomes especially important as Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s health fails and questions are raised about whether his successors will be able to maintain control of the country while the Muslim Brotherhood spearheads a campaign to demand political reform.

As we have said, Gaza is part of the Mediterranean coastal system. Egypt controlled Gaza until 1967 and retained influence there afterward, but not in the West Bank. Hamas also was influenced by Egypt, but not by Mubarak’s government. Hamas was an outgrowth of the Egyptian Muslim Brotherhood, which the Mubarak regime has done a fairly good job of containing, primarily through force.
(...)
Hamas’ long-term strategy — indeed, the only hope of the Palestinians who not prepared to accept a compromise with Israel — is for Egypt to change its tune toward Israel, which could very well involve energizing Islamist forces in Egypt and bringing about the fall of the Mubarak regime. That is the key to any solution for Hamas.

The Geopolitics of the Palestinians | STRATFOR

Hamas is a religious movement, with roots in Egypt and support from Saudi Arabia. Unlike Fatah, Hamas says it is unwilling to recognize the existence of Israel as a legitimate state, and it appears to be quite serious about this. While there seem to be some elements in Hamas that could consider a shift, this is not the consensus view. Iran also provides support, but the Sunni-Shiite split is real and Iran is mostly fishing in troubled waters. Hamas will take help where it can get it, but Hamas is, to a significant degree, funded by the Arab states of the Persian Gulf, so getting too close to Iran would create political problems for Hamas’ leadership. In addition, though Cairo has to deal with Hamas because of the Egypt-Gaza border, Cairo is at best deeply suspicions of the group. Egypt sees Hamas as deriving from the same bedrock of forces that gave birth to the Muslim Brotherhood and those who killed Anwar Sadat, forces which pose the greatest future challenge to Egyptian stability. As a result, Egypt continues to be Israel’s silent partner in the blockade of Gaza.

Israeli-Palestinian Peace Talks, Again | STRATFOR

yea .nothing really earth shaking here, many have said as much over the last few days.

Power shifts over time and when it does lots of folks run around like its never happened before, or is some super catalclysmic event. Mubarak is old, hes reached that 30 year tenure that speaks to a new generation in the making, camp david is almost ancient history now.


its only that we are in the moment that makes this any different than history as it rolls on...


A new political map in the ME is shaking out......maybe we have advanced to 1934.

My one live in interesting times.....

 

[Truthmatters]

It is very earth shaking.

I jsut think it will be for the better in the end.

I believe in democracy.

These people have seen their power in reality now.

They will not stand for any dictator now.

Any Islamic takeover will have to face the rath of these people who now know they CAN push a dictator out.

 

[georgephillip]

Juan Cole includes the following post on Informed Comment 1/29/11:

"Nobelist in chemistry, Dr. Ahmed Zewail of the California Institute of Technology, is an Egyptian-American who has sometimes been mentioned as a candidate for president of Egypt. He has served as a science envoy to the Arab world of President Obama.

"In an interview on Aljazeera Arabic, Zewail called for fundamental change in Egypt, not just cosmetic alterations. He gave as the causes for the current uprising:

"1. Power games among the elite, competition over the succession to President Hosni Mubarak, lack of transparency and phony elections.

"2. The economic situation: the masses of the poor have been left behind, the situation of the middle class has actually gone backward, while a small elite at the top benefits from what economic progress there is– because of a marriage of power and capital.

"3. Corruption and constant demands for bribes by officials.

"4. Education: The deterioration of the education system, which is central to every Egyptian household’s hopes of progress, to a state that does not in any way reflect Egypt’s standing in the world."

Class war comes to Cairo too, it seems.

What would happen if Americans demanding Wall Street prosecutions took to the streets in the same numbers as Egyptians?

Change and Hope?

What kind of Bullshit are you trying to solicit Dip Shit. You want to know how burning Rioting and looting end up? Let me buy you a one way ticket to Cairo or Tehran, you stupid Fuck. Have a nice day. Maybe you can find a better pastime than inciting Chaos you Stupid piece of Shit. You are in the Minority here, out numbered 100 to 1 at best, Moron.

How much more Wall Street are you prepared to swallow, Bitch?

"Why has the Egyptian state lost its legitimacy?

"Max Weber distinguished between power and authority. Power flows from the barrel of a gun, and the Egyptian state still has plenty of those.

"But Weber defines authority as the likelihood that a command will be obeyed.

"Leaders who have authority do not have to shoot people. The Mubarak regime has had to shoot over 100 people in the past few days, and wound more.

"Literally hundreds of thousands of people have ignored Mubarak’s command that they observe night time curfews.

"He has lost his authority."

So have you.

Informed Comment

 

[Trajan]

Juan Cole includes the following post on Informed Comment 1/29/11:

"Nobelist in chemistry, Dr. Ahmed Zewail of the California Institute of Technology, is an Egyptian-American who has sometimes been mentioned as a candidate for president of Egypt. He has served as a science envoy to the Arab world of President Obama.

"In an interview on Aljazeera Arabic, Zewail called for fundamental change in Egypt, not just cosmetic alterations. He gave as the causes for the current uprising:

"1. Power games among the elite, competition over the succession to President Hosni Mubarak, lack of transparency and phony elections.

"2. The economic situation: the masses of the poor have been left behind, the situation of the middle class has actually gone backward, while a small elite at the top benefits from what economic progress there is– because of a marriage of power and capital.

"3. Corruption and constant demands for bribes by officials.

"4. Education: The deterioration of the education system, which is central to every Egyptian household’s hopes of progress, to a state that does not in any way reflect Egypt’s standing in the world."

Class war comes to Cairo too, it seems.

What would happen if Americans demanding Wall Street prosecutions took to the streets in the same numbers as Egyptians?

Change and Hope?

What kind of Bullshit are you trying to solicit Dip Shit. You want to know how burning Rioting and looting end up? Let me buy you a one way ticket to Cairo or Tehran, you stupid Fuck. Have a nice day. Maybe you can find a better pastime than inciting Chaos you Stupid piece of Shit. You are in the Minority here, out numbered 100 to 1 at best, Moron.

How much more Wall Street are you prepared to swallow, Bitch?

"Why has the Egyptian state lost its legitimacy?

"Max Weber distinguished between power and authority. Power flows from the barrel of a gun, and the Egyptian state still has plenty of those.

"But Weber defines authority as the likelihood that a command will be obeyed.

"Leaders who have authority do not have to shoot people. The Mubarak regime has had to shoot over 100 people in the past few days, and wound more.

"Literally hundreds of thousands of people have ignored Mubarak’s command that they observe night time curfews.

"He has lost his authority."

So have you.

Informed Comment

Cole....for god sakes....

 

[ekrem]

It is very earth shaking.

I jsut think it will be for the better in the end.

I believe in democracy.

These people have seen their power in reality now.

They will not stand for any dictator now.

Any Islamic takeover will have to face the rath of these people who now know they CAN push a dictator out.

In true democracies, parties compete for the grace of the electors.
If Egyptians favor Muslim parties, they will bring them to power.
There is no ferocity in this, but simply a democratic process.
Let's imagine, Mubarak regime really falls and Egypt makes the shift into a democracy.
Probably this would result in crafting a new constitution and reforming the judiciary to democratic standards, as both were modeled to secure the power-base of the regime.
There is no doubt, that Egypt would become a place where Islam is more visible, up to the ruling class.
Important is to lay good institutional foundations where power can not be abused, the current system in Egypt is suitable to be exploited again and marginalize everyone else.

 

[LibocalypseNow]

The hard-line Islamists will take advantage of this upheaval. They're already doing this in Tunisia. People are making a very big mistake in believing this Egyptian upheaval is all about Freedom & Democracy. It may have started out that way but in the end the hard-line Islamists will rule.

 

[ekrem]

No friends left.

The fall of the Mubarak government, father and son, will have far reaching security consequences for Israel. It will immediately damage Israel's quiet cooperation with the Egyptians on this front and it may lead to a thaw between Egypt and the Hamas government in Gaza.

It could damage the status of the international peacekeeping force in Sinai and lead to a refusal by Egypt to allow movement of Israeli military submarines and ships in the Suez Canal, employed in the last two years as a deterrent against Iran and to combat weapons smuggling from Sudan to Gaza.

In the long run, if a radical government achieves power, rather than a variation of the current one, there is likely to be a real freeze in the already cold peace with Israel.

From the army's point of view, this will require reorganization. It has been more than 20 years since the army has had to prepare to deal with a real threat from Egypt.

Over the last decades, peace with Egypt has enabled a gradual cutback in the deployment of forces, a reduction in the age of those exempt from reserve duty, and a sweeping diversion of resources toward social and economic goals.

The army is trained for clashes with Hezbollah and Hamas, at the most in combination with Syria. No one has seriously planned for a scenario in which Egyptian divisions enter Sinai, for example.

Cairo tremors will be felt here - Haaretz Daily Newspaper | Israel News

 

[Trajan]

The army is trained for clashes with Hezbollah and Hamas, at the most in combination with Syria. No one has seriously planned for a scenario in which Egyptian divisions enter Sinai, for example.

theres a lesson there for us too....we can revamp but when the world doesn't play according to our rules...then what?

in any event the Egyptian military has atrophied too, I doubt they could field a third of what they did say in 73 in quality or quantity.

 

[ekrem]

No looting.
Business is already predicting for a new administration to come.

Turkish investors, who employ around 80,000 Egyptian workers in their factories, are closely following the recent political and social turmoil.

“There is an anxiety, but we believe that these events are temporary. Despite everything, production continues,” Turkish daily Hürriyet reported Turkish investors as saying Friday.

Both production and factory construction continue in the Polaris International industrial zone located in Egypt’s 6th of October City, according to Tunç Özkan, a partner of the industrial zone, Hürriyet reported Sunday.

“I came to Egypt on Thursday. Protests have grown but factory construction is ongoing,” Özkan said. “The new administration to come to power will first try to increase the production and employment rate. To this end, the investments should continue.”
(...)
“A change is certainly needed in Egypt. But I believe that Turkish investments will not be negatively affected. There is a great respect and sympathy toward Turkey in this country,” Hürriyet quoted Çetin as saying Friday. “Production continues without a halt.”

Turkish machines keep on humming in Egypt - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review

 

[ekrem]

Obama called Erdogan, Hillary Clinton will come to Turkey.

With continuing unrest in Egypt, United States President Barack Obama called Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan early Sunday to discuss ways of working together to prevent the entire Middle East from falling into deep instability.

Turkey, US agree to act together in Egyptian upheaval - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review

 

[Trajan]

No looting.
Business is already predicting for a new administration to come.

Turkish investors, who employ around 80,000 Egyptian workers in their factories, are closely following the recent political and social turmoil.

“There is an anxiety, but we believe that these events are temporary. Despite everything, production continues,” Turkish daily Hürriyet reported Turkish investors as saying Friday.

Both production and factory construction continue in the Polaris International industrial zone located in Egypt’s 6th of October City, according to Tunç Özkan, a partner of the industrial zone, Hürriyet reported Sunday.

“I came to Egypt on Thursday. Protests have grown but factory construction is ongoing,” Özkan said. “The new administration to come to power will first try to increase the production and employment rate. To this end, the investments should continue.”
(...)
“A change is certainly needed in Egypt. But I believe that Turkish investments will not be negatively affected. There is a great respect and sympathy toward Turkey in this country,” Hürriyet quoted Çetin as saying Friday. “Production continues without a halt.”

Turkish machines keep on humming in Egypt - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review

A change is certainly needed in Egypt. But I believe that Turkish investments will not be negatively affected. There is a great respect and sympathy toward Turkey in this country,” Hürriyet quoted Çetin as saying Friday. “Production continues without a halt.”

wow. sounds kind of capitalist corp. feather bedding to me...

 

[georgephillip]

What kind of Bullshit are you trying to solicit Dip Shit. You want to know how burning Rioting and looting end up? Let me buy you a one way ticket to Cairo or Tehran, you stupid Fuck. Have a nice day. Maybe you can find a better pastime than inciting Chaos you Stupid piece of Shit. You are in the Minority here, out numbered 100 to 1 at best, Moron.

How much more Wall Street are you prepared to swallow, Bitch?

"Why has the Egyptian state lost its legitimacy?

"Max Weber distinguished between power and authority. Power flows from the barrel of a gun, and the Egyptian state still has plenty of those.

"But Weber defines authority as the likelihood that a command will be obeyed.

"Leaders who have authority do not have to shoot people. The Mubarak regime has had to shoot over 100 people in the past few days, and wound more.

"Literally hundreds of thousands of people have ignored Mubarak’s command that they observe night time curfews.

"He has lost his authority."

So have you.

Informed Comment

Cole....for god sakes....

Agree or Not?

"From 1970, Anwar El Sadat took Egyptian in a new direction, opening up the economy and openly siding with the new multi-millionaire contracting class. It in turn was eager for European and American investment.

"Tired of the fruitless Arab-Israeli wars, the Egyptian public was largely supportive of Sadat’s 1978 peace deal with Israel, which ended the cycle of wars with that country and opened the way for the building up of the Egyptian tourist industy and Western investment in it, as well as American and European aid.

"Egypt was moving to the Right.

"But whereas Abdel Nasser’s socialist policies had led to a doubling of the average real wage in Egypt 1960-1970, from 1970 to 2000 there was no real development in the country.

"Part of the problem was demographic. If the population grows 3 percent a year and the economy grows 3 percent a year, the per capita increase is zero.

"Since about 1850, Egypt and most other Middle Eastern countries have been having a (mysterious) population boom.

"The ever-increasing population also increasingly crowded into the cities, which typically offer high wages than rural work does, even in the marginal economy (e.g. selling matches). Nearly half the country now lives in cities, and even many villages have become ‘suburbs’ of vast metropolises."

Is there something you know about Egypt that Juan Cole doesn't?

Informed Comment

 

[LibocalypseNow]

Not sure if worth noting but Egypt's Unemployment Rate is the same as the U.S. Just something to ponder i guess.

 

[ekrem]

No friends left.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/31/world/middleeast/31israel.html

Israel Nervously Gauges a Conflicted Partner

The street revolt in Egypt has thrown the Israeli government and military into turmoil, with top officials closeted in round-the-clock strategy sessions aimed at rethinking their most significant regional relationship.
(...)
Eli Shaked, a former Israeli ambassador to Cairo wrote in Yediot Aharonot newspaper, “The only people in Egypt who are committed to peace are the people in Mubarak’s inner circle and if the next president is not one of them, we are going to be in trouble.”
(...)
Mr. Netanyahu could be left without an ally in the region. Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey has expressed fury at Israel and refused to see Mr. Netanyahu because of the Gaza war two years ago and in particular after Israeli commandos killed nine Turks aboard a flotilla trying to break Israel’s blockade of Gaza last May. King Abdullah II of Jordan, while honoring his country’s peaceful relations with Israel, has been critical of Mr. Netanyahu and declined to meet with him as well.

For the military here, a serious change in Egypt means a strategic shift in planning. Giora Eiland, a former national security advisor and senior fellow at the Institute for National Security Studies at Tel Aviv University, said even if Egypt did not cancel its peace treaty with Israel tomorrow or in five years, the new reality would mean “you can’t exclude the possibility of a war with Egypt. During the last 30 years, when we had any military confrontation, whether in the first or second Lebanon wars, the intifadas, in all those events we could be confident that Egypt would not try to intervene militarily.”

Dan Schueftan, director of the National Security Studies Center at the University of Haifa, said thanks to its treaty with Egypt, Israel had reduced its defense expenditure from 23 percent of its gross national product in the 1970s to 9 percent today and made serious cuts in its army.