Geopolitical trends

[ekrem]

As a background-info:
This Russian blogger has made an analysis of European (+Russia+Turkey) geopolitics after the year 2020.
No academic stuff, but he is referenced and interviewed in Russian blogosphere.
You can read that piece on his own website.
SSR #10: Europe, The Black Continent | Sublime Oblivion

Basically he says, that Russia, France and Germany will be dominating powers on continent, with Germany still powerfull but loosing influence due to significant population decrease.
Whether I agree or disagree with his analysis is not the point here, but he predicts a De-Europeanization on the continent with old rivalries between European powers to once again emerge and the Mediteranean powers of Spain and Italy to sink into weak neutral status (mainly the debt burden).

Later in his article, he gives some statistical datas on some areas like (economy, military) in the classification range from 1 to 5.
With + and - representing the trends for the next decades.

Black colour = expansionist

Motivation on my side is not to discuss his article, but transform his approach to the "Near-/Middle Eastern" theatre.
That's what this thread is about.

 

[JW Frogen]

Turkey may very well be a real power again if it does not hamper itself too much more with all that Islam nonsense and returns to the ghost of Ataturk.

 

[ekrem]

Turkey may very well be a real power again if it does not hamper itself too much more with all that Islam nonsense and returns to the ghost of Ataturk.

On Balkans, the Dayton agreement seems to collapse. Bosnia-Hercegovina is heading towards seperation of Serb and Bosniak entities. It's a failed state with the Bosnian Serbs centered on Belgrad, with that capital itself fixed on Moscow.
In contrast to rest Europe, maybe with exception of Spain+Italy, religion still plays big role in Balkans.
Christian population of Balkans is Orthodox, so they look either to Patriarchate in Istanbul (realistically, a blind alley) or to Moscow Patriarch.

The destiny of the Muslim entities of Balkans are tied to the EU-Turkey issue.
Like Turkish FM says:
"We have more Bosnians in Turkey than in Bosnia itself, more Albanians than in Albania"
Davutoglu: Inside Turkey's New Foreign Policy - Newsweek

Struggle in future will be providing undisputed security to Muslim Balkans, which will result in permanent presence of Turkish Army there.
Albanian President, Berisha, signed already a bill to station Turkish troops in Albania on June 2.
Turkey to send naval squadron to Albania - Foreign - The Sofia Echo
In Bosnia and Kosovo we have military presence through international umbrellas, with the difference that NATO will one day redeploy from there, Turkish Army will stay.

But this thread, given it is being written on subject of Middle-East and most importantly written in the year 2010, it is not yet all about Turkey.
There are still countries in Middle East to deal with, all of them having their own interests and designs for the future. So this thread is meant for covering all serious, self-sustaining nations in Middle-East, like Mr. Karlin did in his analysis for North-Europe.

I know it very well, that there are elements here, who would deport Turks to the Chinese Wall, kick them out of NATO, punish them etc. like stated in other threads.
Those elements are still living the dream of 20th January 2001, the inaugration day of George W. Bush, supposed to navigate the US plane into another "American Century"-only.
Today (2010) we are smarter:
[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5X_7Xt2ga-s]YouTube - TOP TEN Crosswind and Scary Aircraft Landings[/ame]

USA still is sole Super-Power, but that status will end with the USA being the most powerfull of 2-4 Superpowers. Let's face the facts.

In context of Middle-East:
No nation there will ever advance into real "global power" status on its own and decoupled from the destiny of the other countries of the region.
Saudi-Arabia had that chance decades ago if it acted wisely, but it failed:
Wealth but weak country.

 

[ekrem]

It was the French and Brits, superseded by USA.
After USA no alien will continue that tradition.
Regionalization of regional events.
Same can be said for other parts of this world.
It is good for justice, when regional countries decide the fate of their regions on their own. This may not be to your likeing, but that is where we are heading towards to.

In general, the Muslim countries were under-represented in the events of 20th century. If you are fragmented, weak and therefore injustice is imposed on you, there exists no global environment for your heritage and your identity to be respected and valued.
They will bring sanctions and war into your region to maximize their interests.

 

[ekrem]

As was made public, 3 Arab countries and Turkey will establish a free-trade zone.
Cabinets of all 4 countries will meet 4 times a year, Head of States one time a year.
- Jordan
- Lebanon
- Syria
- Turkey
As EU vision fades, 'MEU vision' emerges among Turkey, neighbors - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review

Turkey can be expected to seek similar political and economic mechanisms in other regions, such as the Balkans, in the future.
Free Article for Non-Members | STRATFOR

 

[ekrem]

On October 3rd 2009 was established the "Turkic Council", which compromises of several sub-units.
The initiators were Kazakhstan and Azerbaycan:

Turkey is no longer the driving force behind Turkic cooperation; Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan have taken over part of this role. In fact, the AKP’s policy of paying less attention to the relations with the Turkic world has inadvertently given an impetus to the development of inter-Turkic relations. The AKP’s lack of attention to the Turkic world helped the Turkic countries realize that Turkey’s cooperation proposals were not based on hegemonic intentions.

Finally, the rise of Turkic nationalism that can be observed throughout the region has encouraged the Turkic countries to establish institutions such as the Turkish Council. The cooperation agreements that have been signed between the Turkic states are destined to eventually have far-reaching cultural, economic and political repercussions.

The relations between Turkey and the rest of the Turkic world have entered a new era with the establishment of the Assembly of Turkic-speaking parliamentarians and of the Turkic Council.

Central Asia-Caucasus Institute and Silk Road Studies Program

The Turkic Council consists of these states:
- Azerbaycan
- Kazakhstan
- Kyrgizistan
- Turkey

It is a fresh initiative, so other Turkic nations might join in future (Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan).

Presidents will meet Twice a year in Istanbul.
Foreign ministers will meet several times in year.
Parliament delegations will meet 1 time a year in Baku, Azerbaycan.
State Bureaucrats commitee will meet 1 time a year.
Wise Man commission, consisting of improtant figures from Turkic world, will meet 1 time a year.
Turkic Academy for language and culture related issue established in Astana, Kazakhstan
Integration of TÜRKSOY into Turkic Council.

Existing Members of TÜRKSOY (= Turkic Unesco):
http://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Türksoy

 

[ekrem]

As was made public, 3 Arab countries and Turkey will establish a free-trade zone.
Cabinets of all 4 countries will meet 4 times a year, Head of States one time a year.
- Jordan
- Lebanon
- Syria
- Turkey
As EU vision fades, 'MEU vision' emerges among Turkey, neighbors - Hurriyet Daily News and Economic Review

Turkey can be expected to seek similar political and economic mechanisms in other regions, such as the Balkans, in the future.
Free Article for Non-Members | STRATFOR

OECD estimates Turkey will grow by 6.8% in 2010
OECD estimates Turkey will grow by 6.8% in 2010

Others are also invited to join the multi-national free-trade zone as was stated by Turkish PM.
In the next years, those countries will be a de-facto extension of Turkish economy like North-Iraq already is.
Money knows no borders and money/business interests is to be protected if threatened by destabilizers (Israel).

Countries and interest groups maximizing their interests by a fragmented region, do not like such integration off course, hence the narrative of a radicalized Turkey.
That narrative is just the poor-man's description against a country that defrgments the region, and therefore is a challenge for the "divide et impera" thingy.

 

[CMike]

Turkey has become a state sponsor of terrorism and should be considered an outlaw state, just like Iran and Syria.

 

[Epsilon Delta]

That original post was excellent reading material, Ekram! Thanks a lot. I could definitely see the evolution of such a scenario occurring in the fossil-starved world of tomorrow, though I would not foresee the degeneration to be so great and so fast as to engender open war in Europe. Let's be clear, if push REALLY comes to shove it's not totally unimaginable, but a sort of imperial military "duel" between France and Germany will be unlikely for the simple reason that, even with nuclear deterrence gone, anything of the sort would bury Europe forever. That's the whole point of the European project, which I think this guy and many if not most other analysts are too quick to write off. Just this year we saw the German and other European leaderships approve over a trillion dollar rescue package despite huge opposition from the public; the Spanish parliament and the Greek government imposed harsh austerity measures to counteract the confidence crisis and close the deficit despite the fact that it will cost them many allies and the enormous public outcry. I'm not saying these measures may be effective or that they make good economic sense, but from a purely political standpoint it is undeniable that the European elite is still committed to holding the Union together at huge political and economic cost. This latest crisis will pale in comparison to the demographic-energy crises of the future, but it is nevertheless important to keep in mind that there is certainly space for cooperation and clear will to do so transnationally in Europe.

Nevertheless, this kind of doom-and-gloom scenario theorizing in the OP is extremely helpful precisely in order to understand the kind of future Europe and the world should work NOW to avoid.

 

[ekrem]

That original post was excellent reading material, Ekram! Thanks a lot. I could definitely see the evolution of such a scenario occurring in the fossil-starved world of tomorrow, though I would not foresee the degeneration to be so great and so fast as to engender open war in Europe. Let's be clear, if push REALLY comes to shove it's not totally unimaginable, but a sort of imperial military "duel" between France and Germany will be unlikely for the simple reason that, even with nuclear deterrence gone, anything of the sort would bury Europe forever. That's the whole point of the European project, which I think this guy and many if not most other analysts are too quick to write off. Just this year we saw the German and other European leaderships approve over a trillion dollar rescue package despite huge opposition from the public; the Spanish parliament and the Greek government imposed harsh austerity measures to counteract the confidence crisis and close the deficit despite the fact that it will cost them many allies and the enormous public outcry. I'm not saying these measures may be effective or that they make good economic sense, but from a purely political standpoint it is undeniable that the European elite is still committed to holding the Union together at huge political and economic cost. This latest crisis will pale in comparison to the demographic-energy crises of the future, but it is nevertheless important to keep in mind that there is certainly space for cooperation and clear will to do so transnationally in Europe.

Nevertheless, this kind of doom-and-gloom scenario theorizing in the OP is extremely helpful precisely in order to understand the kind of future Europe and the world should work NOW to avoid.

Before I moved permanently to Turkey, I was born and lived in Germany.
It was in the Federal State of Baden-Württemberg, the most South-Western State in Germany.
I lived exactly between the cities of Karlsruhe and Stuttgart, the city was called Pforzheim.
The lengthiest distance from 2 of the 3 cities is 70 KM (43 Miles). Within these 43 Miles companies like Mercedes-Benz, Porsche, Bosch and several others were historcially founded. In a globalized world you cant say anymore that they have their "headquarters" in this region, as they produce in whole world.
The slogan of the Federal State is: "We can everything except speaking High German dialect".

It is also one of the most Christian conservative states in Germany, yet, people are nice and if you do not do any harm to them, they wont to you. Police is omnipresent, not because there was much crime, but showing presence.
In Germany there is something they call "Federal State finance equalization". Rich Federal States transfer money to Federal States which have budget deficits.
A similiar system we have in Turkey.

Since the equalization payments were introduced in Germany, Baden-Württemberg never received any money from others, but alway payed out:
Länderfinanzausgleich ? Wikipedia

What I want to say is, that there are some regions in Germany that are very productive, cutting-edge in innovation and competitive on global scale. Baden-Württemberg is not the only region. As long as those regions remain in German Federal System, the German government even with sinking population trend will always have a role to play, but the German people of today are more pacifist leaning. Afghanistan issue is very controversive in Germany, and something like the Bush-Government "let's go to war"-adventure will not happen with German population. Independent from which government (conservative / social) rules in Germany, about 50-60 % of population votes for socials, leftist and greens in every election. The rest votes for Christian conservatives and Market Liberalists.
The German Christian Conservatives are also not American-type, plane they are a mixture of secular and conservative values.
There is no thing like "We have to defend Christian values in the world" type of adventure population, Germany's support for Israel is also very controverse. Government supports Israel because of Adolf-Pharao, but German population swaps over to the feeling of having "payed" and "apologized" enough to be held guilty in present days, the youngest generation leading the way.

According to polls (3% error margin), 49% of Germans say Israekl is agressive. 59% say Israel does not respect human rights, 13 % say Israel has no existence right, and 70% of young Germans think, there is no special historical bondage (Adolf Hitler) to be respected between todays German government and Israel.
Umfrage: Jeder zweite Deutsche hält Israel für aggressiv - Nahost - FOCUS Online

Like Shimon Peres talking with German media about shifting generations in German-Israeli relations, he complains and is anxious that they younger generation of Germans see Israel more a threat then Iran:
Im Gespräch mit Israels Präsident Peres: „Mit Fanatikern sind Kompromisse nicht möglich“ - Hintergründe - Politik - FAZ.NET

Before the Afghanistan participation of German Army, the Bundeswehr was a pacifist army. In German constitution it says, the Bundeswehr is not allowed to engage in offensive war.
The Afhanistan particpation under ISAF was sold as humanitarian engagement and alliance-commitments.
Only in first quarter of 2010, when increasingly German soldiers died in Afghanistan the politicans talked of war to legitimize shifting heavy war gear to Afghanistan.
There were some sideline effects like court-rulings of which jurisprudence and authority is to be applied for wrongdoings of German soldiers under war-engagement on foreign territory.

Somehow the Germany, unlike the Japanese, have made the shift from pacifist and guilty Army-Status into normal status. Still, many do not agree and most Germans (62%) want their troops immediately return home.
Konflikte: Umfrage: 62 Prozent für Afghanistan-Abzug - dpa-Ticker - Politik - Handelsblatt.com

As I still travel to Germany due to work very often in a month, I would say there is resignation that there is no other option besides supporting the troops. People want their troops return but not demoralize them.

Only 21% of Germans say, that if they could turn back time to 2001, they would again support sending "Humanitarian Mission (Bundeswehr)" to Afghanistan:

 

[midcan5]

Such cheery optimism! Some of the pieces at the link were interesting even when the unknown outcomes leaned a bit too far towards a repeat of bad history. The key to a peaceful future involves lots of things but a collapse to a jungle requires less. Witness only the attack on Iraq caused by fear and bad information. I think though the jury is always out on the future, can we learn to live within the limits billions of people create on resources, and yet provide the economic and social situation that mitigates the negative powers of fear, jingoism, and extremist religious and political views. It will require values, morals and an education steeped in reality not fantasy, too often missing in the world.


[ame=http://www.amazon.com/History-Civilizations-Fernand-Braudel/dp/0140124896/ref=ntt_at_ep_dpt_3]Amazon.com: A History of Civilizations (9780140124897): Fernand…[/ame]


"The great source of both the misery and disorders of human life, seems to arise from over-rating the difference between one permanent situation and another. Avarice over-rates the difference between poverty and riches: ambition, that between a private and a public station: vain-glory, that between obscurity and extensive reputation. The person under the influence of any of those extravagant passions, is not only miserable in his actual situation, but is often disposed to disturb the peace of society, in order to arrive at that which he so foolishly admires. The slightest observation, however, might satisfy him, that, in all the ordinary situations of human life, a well-disposed mind may be equally calm, equally cheerful, and equally contented. Some of those situations may, no doubt, deserve to be preferred to others: but none of them can deserve to be pursued with that passionate ardour which drives us to violate the rules either of prudence or of justice; or to corrupt the future tranquility of our minds, either by shame from the remembrance of our own folly, or by remorse from the horror of our own injustice." Adam Smith

 

[ekrem]

On 16th June was ceremony for JADI (Jeddah- Amman- Damascus- Istanbul) Link in Istanbul.
Jadi Link will connect
- Jordan
- Saudi-Arabia
- Syria
- Turkey
by a 200 Gbps terrestrial optic-fibre network in length of 2530 km.


Statement from Turk Telekom says, that terrestrial network will shorten, speed and strengthen data exchage not only within the region but also through the region, as currently data exchange from Europe to Asia goes through under-water cables.
Güncel Detay | Ana Sayfa | Türk Telekom

 

[ekrem]

On 16th June was ceremony for JADI (Jeddah- Amman- Damascus- Istanbul) Link in Istanbul.
Jadi Link will connect
- Jordan
- Saudi-Arabia
- Syria
- Turkey
by a 200 Gbps terrestrial optic-fibre network in length of 2530 km.


Statement from Turk Telekom says, that terrestrial network will shorten, speed and strengthen data exchage not only within the region but also through the region, as currently data exchange from Europe to Asia goes through under-water cables.
Güncel Detay | Ana Sayfa | Türk Telekom

Turkey to rejuvenate historic Hejaz Railway linking Istanbul to Saudi Arabia - 17 June 2010
ANIMA News : Turkey to rejuvenate historic Hejaz Railway linking Istanbul to Saudi Arabia


The nearly 1,400 kilometres long railroad between Damascus, Syria, and the Holy City og Madinah was laid to facilitate travel of pilgrims to Saudi Arabia.
The planned destination was Makkah, for which work was begun but 
never completed.
The railway was initiated by the Ottoman authorities, and built under German administration, but largely with local labour.
The line, which passed through desolate regions, was a victim of attacks. It was operational only for a short period, between 1908 and 1916. Since then it has only been used between Damascus and Amman.
Plan to Link Makkah with Ankara
through Rail Line Gets a Fresh Boost

 

[ekrem]

Pakistan-Turkey to start $20 b project on Islamabad-Istanbul rail link
Pak-Turk to start $20 b project on Islamabad-Istanbul rail link

Railway is about 6.500 KM long.
Off course it will economically involve and benefit also Iran.

Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr Zardari, proposes to name the railway link "Gul Train" in honour of Turkish President Abdullah Gül.

PR No. 344
Government of Pakistan
Press Information Department (Government of Pakistan)

 

[ekrem]

Pakistan-Turkey to start $20 b project on Islamabad-Istanbul rail link
Pak-Turk to start $20 b project on Islamabad-Istanbul rail link

Railway is about 6.500 KM long.
Off course it will economically involve and benefit also Iran.

Prime Minister of Pakistan, Mr Zardari, proposes to name the railway link "Gul Train" in honour of Turkish President Abdullah Gül.

PR No. 344
Government of Pakistan
Press Information Department (Government of Pakistan)

With Pakistan being member of D-8 Organization (8 most populous Muslim Nations), member of OIC and Sunnite Nuclear power it is logical sense that such projects to integrate and boost economic efforts between Pakistan and Turkey are undertaken.

Turkey will also give Pakistan its MILGEM warship design.
Turkey?s M?LGEM to build military ships for Pakistan

There operate 20 Turkish Colleges and Schools in Pakistan, with medical sub-divisions and ambulances, that grant free-of-cost service to the population of the towns
PAKTURK I.C.E.F

Turkey to upgrade Pakistani F-16s
http://www.f-16.net/news_article3004.html

T-129 Attack Helicopter is also in the interest of Pakistan
ATAK team outlines progress of Turkey's T129 project, after first flight success

Turkey to provide Pakistan with Cobra Attack Helicopter spare parts free of cost
Daily Times - Leading News Resource of Pakistan

Pakistani UAV's
Some analysts believe that Pakistan is manufacturing the latest UAVs with the help of Turkey and China. The new Uqaab UAV is believed to have been developed with the help of Turkey.
Asia Times Online :: South Asia news, business and economy from India and Pakistan

Video of Turkish General Staff honoured in Presidency of Pakistan by Pakistani president:
APP Video Preveiw

Highest Award of Pakistan
13 foreigners received so far
Nishan-e-Pakistan - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[Epsilon Delta]

So how do you figure Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan fit into all of this Turko-Pakistani alliance, ekram?

 

[ekrem]

So how do you figure Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan fit into all of this Turko-Pakistani alliance, ekram?

It is no alliance.
The Muslims of the Indian sub-continent were the only Muslim peoples to support and recognize Caliphate in Istanbul in its ending days.
Whilst Ottomans fought wars with Christians and Arab Muslims in its ending days, Muslims from the Indian sub-continent collected money in mosques to be sent to Turkey to treat the Turkish wounded in its wars against traitors and heretics to those days' religious standards :
http://prr.hec.gov.pk/Chapters/598-0.pdf

Turkey considerably helped Pakistan when the devastating earthquake hit Pakistan in 2005.
Pakistan Daily | Long live Pakistan Turkish brotherhood
A friend indeed

There is respect and gratitude from Turkey to the people of Pakistan, whose population proved to be true friends of Turkey in difficult times.
Unfortunately, in the 20th century Turkey very very weak and could not really help Pakistan in serious terms besides silly peanuts-$ and good words.
Luckily this is changing, and Turkey will be there for Pakistan in 21st century when they need help.

Turkey has donated 90 million $ to set-up agricultural DNA database in Pakistan in April 2010:
(Video)
APP Video Preveiw

 

[GHook93]

Yep and Indian still has probably the serve Islamic Facist threats in the world. Funny after India graciously gave up two new Islamic states in 1948 (coincidence? I think not) West and East Pakistan, you would think the Muslims would be grateful. Nope they demand more and more. If they get Kashmir today, it would be another providence tomorrow. Soon they will request a totally separate country for the 110 million Indian Muslims!

So how do you figure Iran, Iraq, and Afghanistan fit into all of this Turko-Pakistani alliance, ekram?

It is no alliance.
The Muslims of the Indian sub-continent were the only Muslim peoples to support and recognize Caliphate in Istanbul in its ending days.
Whilst Ottomans fought wars with Christians and Arab Muslims in its ending days, Muslims from the Indian sub-continent collected money in mosques to be sent to Turkey to treat the Turkish wounded in its wars against traitors and heretics to those days' religious standards :
http://prr.hec.gov.pk/Chapters/598-0.pdf

Turkey considerably helped Pakistan when the devastating earthquake hit Pakistan in 2005.
Pakistan Daily | Long live Pakistan Turkish brotherhood
A friend indeed

There is respect and gratitude from Turkey to the people of Pakistan, whose population proved to be true friends of Turkey in difficult times.
Unfortunately, in the 20th century Turkey very very weak and could not really help Pakistan in serious terms besides silly peanuts-$ and good words.
Luckily this is changing, and Turkey will be there for Pakistan in 21st century when they need help.

Turkey has donated 90 million $ to set-up agricultural DNA database in Pakistan in April 2010:
(Video)
APP Video Preveiw