As a background-info: This Russian blogger has made an analysis of European (+Russia+Turkey) geopolitics after the year 2020. No academic stuff, but he is referenced and interviewed in Russian blogosphere. You can read that piece on his own website. SSR #10: Europe, The Black Continent | Sublime Oblivion Basically he says, that Russia, France and Germany will be dominating powers on continent, with Germany still powerfull but loosing influence due to significant population decrease. Whether I agree or disagree with his analysis is not the point here, but he predicts a De-Europeanization on the continent with old rivalries between European powers to once again emerge and the Mediteranean powers of Spain and Italy to sink into weak neutral status (mainly the debt burden). Later in his article, he gives some statistical datas on some areas like (economy, military) in the classification range from 1 to 5. With + and - representing the trends for the next decades. Black colour = expansionist Motivation on my side is not to discuss his article, but transform his approach to the "Near-/Middle Eastern" theatre. That's what this thread is about.