GDP Turn Around at highest rate since 1981

[Neubarth]

Still, any encouraging macroeconomic news is good to read.

Housing sales were up last quarter here in Maine.

The price of homes fell about 6%, however.

The employment picture is still pretty bleak, even for Maine, which tends to always have a bleak employment picture.

I don't think we're seeing a recovery, but the fact that we don't seem to be in free fall is hopeful.

Existing house sales mean nothing as very little was added to the economy. New house sales are additive to the economy as people are working to build them. New house sales have plunged. Existing house sales have not plunged, and in many parts of the country have stayed fairly steady during this Depression.

GDP, as we know has been a totally "bought" index with Taxpayer money. It has no validity. Take that increase in Federal money out, and GDP actually fell over six percent.

 

[editec]

Still, any encouraging macroeconomic news is good to read.

Housing sales were up last quarter here in Maine.

The price of homes fell about 6%, however.

The employment picture is still pretty bleak, even for Maine, which tends to always have a bleak employment picture.

I don't think we're seeing a recovery, but the fact that we don't seem to be in free fall is hopeful.

Existing house sales mean nothing as very little was added to the economy. New house sales are additive to the economy as people are working to build them. New house sales have plunged. Existing house sales have not plunged, and in many parts of the country have stayed fairly steady during this Depression.

GDP, as we know has been a totally "bought" index with Taxpayer money. It has no validity. Take that increase in Federal money out, and GDP actually fell over six percent.

Sales of existing sales helps the economy, too.

First of all, most people selling are realizing capital gains.

The borrower is usually inventing new money when they take out that loan, so that also helps liquify our cash strapped economy.

Throw into the mix the people who make money when a home is sold, the relators, lawyers, surveryors and so forth.

While it is true that new homes generate more money, at this stage of the game, any economic activity is good economic activity.

 

[Neubarth]

Yeah, the government is doing what they are supposed to be doing. And most of what the government is doing right now is in the automatic stabilizers built into law. Bush's last budget had a $1 trillion deficit, most of which had nothing to do with Bush's increased spending and tax cuts.

Also, much of the rebound has been in inventory rebuild. What this means is that businesses cut too much earlier in the year, i.e. GDP should not have been as negative as it was. However, unless there is sustainable demand, the forth quarter's GDP print is likely to be the highest for some time.

The good news is that consumer demand growth was 2% in the forth quarter. That means consumer demand is growing. The bad news is that is not enough to start creating the millions of jobs we need for a significant rebound. Growth is likely to be low and unemployment likely to be high for some time as we work through the excesses built up over the past 15 years.

That is nothing but bullshit, Toro. Nobody in his right mind believes all of those lies put out by the Obama administration. Lies are lies are lies. No validity there..

The fact remains that there are minor fluctuations in the numbers. Industrial production is on the bottom and bumps up and down by half a percentage point each and every month. As you should know, a fifty percent fall is not the same as a fifty percent rise in the stock market or in sales or in production. Same for a one percent fall as opposed to a one percent rise. If it goes down one percent and then up one percent, you are lower than when you started. Claims that those minor fluctuation are a revival are about as believable as murderers in prison getting religion. It is usually totally phony.

Interesting manipulation of the industrial production index. The Fed still uses 2002 as the base year. December IP then is at 100.3. Now that's still down from the previous year, and improvement is slow, but it's not as drastic as resetting the base year to immediately before the recession started would indicate. The only reason I can think of for doing that is to intentionally distort the index to make things look worse.

Of course, I'd be happy to hear any alternate explanation for the change.

Commie, Pinko, more of your double talk and insane badinage. It does not matter what index year you use the fall is still the fall. Industrial Production is still way down from where it was two years ago or three years ago or four years ago. All the chart does is show that it is down. All you want to do is confuse people with all of the lies that Obama likes to make up. Just like his claim that Unemployment Insurance claims are plunging and prove that we are in a recovery. Lies upon lies and even more lies.

 

[The Rabbi]

Still, any encouraging macroeconomic news is good to read.

Housing sales were up last quarter here in Maine.

The price of homes fell about 6%, however.

The employment picture is still pretty bleak, even for Maine, which tends to always have a bleak employment picture.

I don't think we're seeing a recovery, but the fact that we don't seem to be in free fall is hopeful.

Existing house sales mean nothing as very little was added to the economy. New house sales are additive to the economy as people are working to build them. New house sales have plunged. Existing house sales have not plunged, and in many parts of the country have stayed fairly steady during this Depression.

GDP, as we know has been a totally "bought" index with Taxpayer money. It has no validity. Take that increase in Federal money out, and GDP actually fell over six percent.

That was true int he previous report but not this last one. According to this last one business investment was responsible for most of the increase.
But by business investment they mean restocking inventories that had been severely depleted.
It is little different from the "cash for clunkers." All the demand that went away in the past has gotten shoved into this last quarter. Without sales it cannot continue. And no one is seeing increased end user sales.

 

[jillian]

A single swallow does not a summer make, Jill.

For most people the depression ends when they find a decent job that gives them a LIVING WAGE.

Still, any encouraging macroeconomic news is good to read.

Housing sales were up last quarter here in Maine.

The price of homes fell about 6%, however.

The employment picture is still pretty bleak, even for Maine, which tends to always have a bleak employment picture.

I don't think we're seeing a recovery, but the fact that we don't seem to be in free fall is hopeful.

I agree re the jobs. But jobs are always the last thing to recover when there is a recession. The greater confidence in the economy, the more risks people will take in all areas, including hiring. The problem is there really seems to be a concerted effort to keep people from becoming more confident. I'm not saying that people should walk around blowing sunshine, as it were, and saying "all's well". But the loons (and you know who I'm talking about) who are running around saying we're in a depression (which is an out and out lie) and that things aren't improving (also a lie) should be ashamed of themselves.

Is it a bad thing that home prices fell? Well, I guess if you overpaid for yours and need to sell it. Otherwise, it shouldn't matter to the seller cause they'll just stay and eventually prices will turn around. And for buyers, the drop in prices is a good thing. But the way I see it, there are a few reasons for the drop in price.. a) a lot of people are out of work; b) the market is glutted with foreclosures; and c) banks aren't lending yet. (which is disgusting given that we saved their sorry butts and they're giving themselves bonuses for almost destroying the world economy).

 

[The Rabbi]

A single swallow does not a summer make, Jill.

For most people the depression ends when they find a decent job that gives them a LIVING WAGE.

Still, any encouraging macroeconomic news is good to read.

Housing sales were up last quarter here in Maine.

The price of homes fell about 6%, however.

The employment picture is still pretty bleak, even for Maine, which tends to always have a bleak employment picture.

I don't think we're seeing a recovery, but the fact that we don't seem to be in free fall is hopeful.

I agree re the jobs. But jobs are always the last thing to recover when there is a recession. The greater confidence in the economy, the more risks people will take in all areas, including hiring. The problem is there really seems to be a concerted effort to keep people from becoming more confident. I'm not saying that people should walk around blowing sunshine, as it were, and saying "all's well". But the loons (and you know who I'm talking about) who are running around saying we're in a depression (which is an out and out lie) and that things aren't improving (also a lie) should be ashamed of themselves.

Is it a bad thing that home prices fell? Well, I guess if you overpaid for yours and need to sell it. Otherwise, it shouldn't matter to the seller cause they'll just stay and eventually prices will turn around. And for buyers, the drop in prices is a good thing. But the way I see it, there are a few reasons for the drop in price.. a) a lot of people are out of work; b) the market is glutted with foreclosures; and c) banks aren't lending yet. (which is disgusting given that we saved their sorry butts and they're giving themselves bonuses for almost destroying the world economy).

Wow. Every post you impress me more and more with how ignorant and ill informed you are. Your knowledge barely scratches the surface beyond any headline. In depth examination seems beyond you. No wonder you worship at the Phallus of BO.

In real life this recession is far from over. Improvements in corporate profits have come from cost cutting, not increases in the top line. That can only go so far.
Sellers sell for a reason, whether it is a job transfer, beiing out of work and needing to sell, or some other reason. Everyone knows this is a bad market. So blithely suggesting they can just wait is nothing more than "head up your ass" thinking.
Banks aren't lending because they got stuck with bad loans last time around. So now the cry is "credit quality". Which do you want? There are only so many qualified buyers in the market. To reach beyond that number (which is of course smaller than it was 2 years ago) is to reach down into sub prime territory. To maintain quality is to limit borrowing. What's your choice?
There is a tremendous lack of confidence out there. Ifyou worked doing something productive instead of sweeping out law offices you would know this. Companies cannot estimate what their costs will be for taxes or hiring or anything else because this president comes up with a confiscatory scheme every week. This week the banks. Next week insurance companies. Next month utilities. And after that anyone who breathes at work.
In such an environment everyone will wait and see. This wait and see will continue until Nov when the GOP sweeps back in and effectively blocks Obama's agenda. Then it will be Bill Clinton's second term all over again.

 

[Paulie]

First of all, most people selling are realizing capital gains.

MOST?

I don't know about that. With as much as home values have declined, I think it's a more fair assessment that most have LOST money. There's a plethora of people out there who are just happy enough to get out of their mortgage any way they can.

Look at all the short sales out there.

 

[Neubarth]

You can warn them about what is really happening with the economy, and they just adjust their blinders so they can not see the light.