GDP Turn Around at highest rate since 1981

[jillian]

Wow...where's chicken little now?

Romer: Most Positive News to Date on the Economy

Today's GDP report is the most positive news to date on the economy. The data show that the total output of the U.S. economy increased strongly in the fourth quarter of 2009. Real GDP (that is, GDP adjusted for inflation) increased at an annual rate of 5.7 percent. The change from the first quarter of 2009, when GDP fell at an annual rate of 6.4 percent, is truly extraordinary; indeed, the three-quarter swing in growth rates was the largest since 1981.

Romer: Most Positive News to Date on theEconomy - Real Clear Politics – TIME.com

 

[Paulie]

jill you're ok that most of that has been government spending?

It's not exactly indicative of real recovery if the private sector isn't contributing much to the GDP.

This isn't partisan, this is just reality. Let me see a GDP increase that involves more private sector contribution, and I don't care what party is in power when it happens.

 

[jillian]

well, according to the article:

This broad-based rise in GDP was surely fueled in part by the tax cuts and investment spending in the Recovery Act and other rescue actions, but some appears to be the result of private sector demand returning.

so it isn't clear that "most" of it comes from government spending. At least that's how I'm reading it. And anyone whose opinion I trust on economic issues (read: not randians and austrians) says that that's what government NEEDS to do in times of recession. If you ask me, they didn't go far enough or big enough.

 

[Modbert]

This is great news, especially since the private sector is spending some too.

I doubt it will be accepted by those who feel the sky is falling already, but it just makes them look more silly.

If you were to listen some people here, you'd figure the DOW is at it's lowest ever. When in reality, it's been steadily rising since Obama took office.

 

[jillian]

This is great news, especially since the private sector is spending some too.

I doubt it will be accepted by those who feel the sky is falling already, but it just makes them look more silly.

If you were to listen some people here, you'd figure the DOW is at it's lowest ever. When in reality, it's been steadily rising since Obama took office.

yeah, but those people have an agenda, either political or financial in seeing things fall apart.

I figure there's a long way to go, but certainly better than a year ago. And anyone who's really honest would say the same.

 

[Modbert]

yeah, but those people have an agenda, either political or financial in seeing things fall apart.

I figure there's a long way to go, but certainly better than a year ago. And anyone who's really honest would say the same.

Of course they do.

I would say so. My state has one of the worst unemployment rates in the country because of the last year but it is doing better now. It's news like this which will hopefully see more good news soon.

R.I. house sales up, prices rise for 1st time in three years | Rhode Island news | projo.com | The Providence Journal

November saw a dramatic increase in the number of houses sold in Rhode Island — up 61.1 percent compared with November 2008, according to statistics compiled by the Rhode Island Association of Realtors.

U.S. home sales rose 7.4 percent in November, according to the National Association of Realtors, while in neighboring Massachusetts, the single-family sales spike mirrored that of Rhode Island, at about 60 percent.

In Rhode Island, the increase in sales volume was accompanied by a slight increase in the median house price, up 1.2 percent, to $205,000 from $202,500 in November 2008.

It was the first time since July of 2006 that the median house price in Rhode Island was up in a year-to-year comparison.

For single-family houses, the number of short sales and foreclosures declined to 23 percent of sales, down from 36.9 percent in November 2008.

We’re still in a recession, but we’re in a typical recession, not a free-fall, like we were in a year ago,” he said.

“I wouldn’t say that happy days are here again,” Lardaro added. “It isn’t going straight up. The question is, where do we go from here.”

 

[jillian]

See, that's the thing... the last piece of the puzzle is consumer confidence. And that is what the doom and gloom folk have been working on... trying to kill any semblance of confidence in the economy.

If you ask half of the country, you would think things weren't improving. Yet that's so dishonest.

NY is having pretty bad problems employment-wise, but I think a lot of that is financial sector.

 

[Modbert]

See, that's the thing... the last piece of the puzzle is consumer confidence. And that is what the doom and gloom folk have been working on... trying to kill any semblance of confidence in the economy.

If you ask half of the country, you would think things weren't improving. Yet that's so dishonest.

NY is having pretty bad problems employment-wise, but I think a lot of that is financial sector.

And those same people know for a fact that employment is always the last thing to recover from a recession historically. So it's even more dishonesty.

 

[jillian]

exactly.

see, i know paulie genuinely believes in the more hands-off way of doing things. and i'd like to see what he has to say in response to my answer to his question.

but most of these others... just want to poison the well.

 

[Modbert]

exactly.

see, i know paulie genuinely believes in the more hands-off way of doing things. and i'd like to see what he has to say in response to my answer to his question.

but most of these others... just want to poison the well.

Agreed.

Which is a shame because we've allowed politics to take it this far as a nation.

 

[Queen]

The people that are hoping for Obama to fail aren't happy about this.

But the real American patriotic people who love our country are very happy that we have an intelligent man as President who was able to turn things around and get our country out of the ditch.

 

[Paulie]

exactly.

see, i know paulie genuinely believes in the more hands-off way of doing things. and i'd like to see what he has to say in response to my answer to his question.

but most of these others... just want to poison the well.

There wasn't much left to say. You don't agree with anything that an austrian says, so there was really no point in continuing on.

All I will say I guess, is that the austrians were warning all of us that the bubble was about to burst, while the Keynesians were laughing at the austrians. And now, the Keynesians are STILL saying they had no idea it was going to happen.

That troubles me when you consider it's still Keynesians who are making policy. They fucked up BAD.

 

[Toro]

well, according to the article:

This broad-based rise in GDP was surely fueled in part by the tax cuts and investment spending in the Recovery Act and other rescue actions, but some appears to be the result of private sector demand returning.

so it isn't clear that "most" of it comes from government spending. At least that's how I'm reading it. And anyone whose opinion I trust on economic issues (read: not randians and austrians) says that that's what government NEEDS to do in times of recession. If you ask me, they didn't go far enough or big enough.

Yeah, the government is doing what they are supposed to be doing. And most of what the government is doing right now is in the automatic stabilizers built into law. Bush's last budget had a $1 trillion deficit, most of which had nothing to do with Bush's increased spending and tax cuts.

Also, much of the rebound has been in inventory rebuild. What this means is that businesses cut too much earlier in the year, i.e. GDP should not have been as negative as it was. However, unless there is sustainable demand, the forth quarter's GDP print is likely to be the highest for some time.

The good news is that consumer demand growth was 2% in the forth quarter. That means consumer demand is growing. The bad news is that is not enough to start creating the millions of jobs we need for a significant rebound. Growth is likely to be low and unemployment likely to be high for some time as we work through the excesses built up over the past 15 years.

 

[Neubarth]

well, according to the article:

This broad-based rise in GDP was surely fueled in part by the tax cuts and investment spending in the Recovery Act and other rescue actions, but some appears to be the result of private sector demand returning.

so it isn't clear that "most" of it comes from government spending. At least that's how I'm reading it. And anyone whose opinion I trust on economic issues (read: not randians and austrians) says that that's what government NEEDS to do in times of recession. If you ask me, they didn't go far enough or big enough.

Yeah, the government is doing what they are supposed to be doing. And most of what the government is doing right now is in the automatic stabilizers built into law. Bush's last budget had a $1 trillion deficit, most of which had nothing to do with Bush's increased spending and tax cuts.

Also, much of the rebound has been in inventory rebuild. What this means is that businesses cut too much earlier in the year, i.e. GDP should not have been as negative as it was. However, unless there is sustainable demand, the forth quarter's GDP print is likely to be the highest for some time.

The good news is that consumer demand growth was 2% in the forth quarter. That means consumer demand is growing. The bad news is that is not enough to start creating the millions of jobs we need for a significant rebound. Growth is likely to be low and unemployment likely to be high for some time as we work through the excesses built up over the past 15 years.

That is nothing but bullshit, Toro. Nobody in his right mind believes all of those lies put out by the Obama administration. Lies are lies are lies. No validity there..

The fact remains that there are minor fluctuations in the numbers. Industrial production is on the bottom and bumps up and down by half a percentage point each and every month. As you should know, a fifty percent fall is not the same as a fifty percent rise in the stock market or in sales or in production. Same for a one percent fall as opposed to a one percent rise. If it goes down one percent and then up one percent, you are lower than when you started. Claims that those minor fluctuation are a revival are about as believable as murderers in prison getting religion. It is usually totally phony.

 

[The Rabbi]

Only economic morons like Jillian and Dogfish believe we are out of a recession. In point of fact banks are still failing. Sales are not rising. And people are still getting laid off in droves.
Now the Dow is falling again. I suspect poor expectations are to blame.
We will see what happens with Greece. And California. And a few other things. This could easily get much much worse. And unlikely to get better.

 

[Neubarth]

Only economic morons like Jillian and Dogfish believe we are out of a recession. In point of fact banks are still failing. Sales are not rising. And people are still getting laid off in droves.
Now the Dow is falling again. I suspect poor expectations are to blame.
We will see what happens with Greece. And California. And a few other things. This could easily get much much worse. And unlikely to get better.

To put it in simple English, it is all going to Hell on a sleigh-ride.

 

[Dr Grump]

That is nothing but bullshit, Toro. Nobody in his right mind believes all of those lies put out by the Obama administration. Lies are lies are lies. No validity there..

The fact remains that there are minor fluctuations in the numbers. Industrial production is on the bottom and bumps up and down by half a percentage point each and every month. As you should know, a fifty percent fall is not the same as a fifty percent rise in the stock market or in sales or in production. Same for a one percent fall as opposed to a one percent rise. If it goes down one percent and then up one percent, you are lower than when you started. Claims that those minor fluctuation are a revival are about as believable as murderers in prison getting religion. It is usually totally phony.

You wouldn't have a clue what you are talking about....

 

[pinqy]

well, according to the article:



so it isn't clear that "most" of it comes from government spending. At least that's how I'm reading it. And anyone whose opinion I trust on economic issues (read: not randians and austrians) says that that's what government NEEDS to do in times of recession. If you ask me, they didn't go far enough or big enough.

Yeah, the government is doing what they are supposed to be doing. And most of what the government is doing right now is in the automatic stabilizers built into law. Bush's last budget had a $1 trillion deficit, most of which had nothing to do with Bush's increased spending and tax cuts.

Also, much of the rebound has been in inventory rebuild. What this means is that businesses cut too much earlier in the year, i.e. GDP should not have been as negative as it was. However, unless there is sustainable demand, the forth quarter's GDP print is likely to be the highest for some time.

The good news is that consumer demand growth was 2% in the forth quarter. That means consumer demand is growing. The bad news is that is not enough to start creating the millions of jobs we need for a significant rebound. Growth is likely to be low and unemployment likely to be high for some time as we work through the excesses built up over the past 15 years.

That is nothing but bullshit, Toro. Nobody in his right mind believes all of those lies put out by the Obama administration. Lies are lies are lies. No validity there..

The fact remains that there are minor fluctuations in the numbers. Industrial production is on the bottom and bumps up and down by half a percentage point each and every month. As you should know, a fifty percent fall is not the same as a fifty percent rise in the stock market or in sales or in production. Same for a one percent fall as opposed to a one percent rise. If it goes down one percent and then up one percent, you are lower than when you started. Claims that those minor fluctuation are a revival are about as believable as murderers in prison getting religion. It is usually totally phony.

Interesting manipulation of the industrial production index. The Fed still uses 2002 as the base year. December IP then is at 100.3. Now that's still down from the previous year, and improvement is slow, but it's not as drastic as resetting the base year to immediately before the recession started would indicate. The only reason I can think of for doing that is to intentionally distort the index to make things look worse.

Of course, I'd be happy to hear any alternate explanation for the change.

 

[jillian]

That is nothing but bullshit, Toro. Nobody in his right mind believes all of those lies put out by the Obama administration. Lies are lies are lies. No validity there..

The fact remains that there are minor fluctuations in the numbers. Industrial production is on the bottom and bumps up and down by half a percentage point each and every month. As you should know, a fifty percent fall is not the same as a fifty percent rise in the stock market or in sales or in production. Same for a one percent fall as opposed to a one percent rise. If it goes down one percent and then up one percent, you are lower than when you started. Claims that those minor fluctuation are a revival are about as believable as murderers in prison getting religion. It is usually totally phony.

You wouldn't have a clue what you are talking about....

S'ok. Neither does he.

 

[editec]

As always, it is important not to read too much into a single report, positive or negative. There will surely be bumps in the road ahead, and we will need to continue to take responsible actions to ensure that the recovery is as smooth and robust as possible. Nonetheless, today's report is a welcome piece of encouraging news.

A single swallow does not a summer make, Jill.

For most people the depression ends when they find a decent job that gives them a LIVING WAGE.

Still, any encouraging macroeconomic news is good to read.

Housing sales were up last quarter here in Maine.

The price of homes fell about 6%, however.

The employment picture is still pretty bleak, even for Maine, which tends to always have a bleak employment picture.

I don't think we're seeing a recovery, but the fact that we don't seem to be in free fall is hopeful.