GDP cheating

[katsung47]

841. GDP cheating (6/29/2014)

How the government cheat you on GDP of 1st quarter of 2014.

1. Apr 30, 2014. They said it increased 0.1%.
2. May 29, 2014. They said it decreased 1.0%.
3. Jun 25, 2014. They said it decreased 2.9%.

U.S. First Quarter Gross Domestic Product (Text)

By Chris Middleton Apr 30, 2014

Following is the text of the Gross Domestic Product report from the Commerce Department:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the first quarter (that is, from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent.

U.S. First Quarter Gross Domestic Product (Text) - Bloomberg

------------------------------

GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT: FIRST QUARTER 2014 (SECOND ESTIMATE)
MAY 29, 2014
Lisa Mataloni: (202) 606-5304 (GDP) [email protected]

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 1.0 percent in the first quarter according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/2014/pdf/gdp1q14_2nd.pdf

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U.S. economy collapses in first quarter, but growing again

By Lucia Mutikani 6/25/2014
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -

The Commerce Department said on Wednesday gross domestic product fell at a 2.9 percent annual rate, the sharpest decline in five years, instead of the 1.0 percent pace it had reported last month.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/u-economy-contracts-2-9-123534819.html

 

[SteadyMercury]

I realize it is futile to attempt logic with one of the most mentally ill people on the internet, but I have to ask = if they were really interested in cheating (as in misrepresenting the number for gain) why would they bother to correct it later? Why not just leave it a fake number? If I'm going to cheat at someone it wouldn't be worth my time if I came clean too.

 

[JimmieD]

841. GDP cheating (6/29/2014)

How the government cheat you on GDP of 1st quarter of 2014.

1. Apr 30, 2014. They said it increased 0.1%.
2. May 29, 2014. They said it decreased 1.0%.
3. Jun 25, 2014. They said it decreased 2.9%.

I'm sorry, how is this cheating? Everyone should know that all statistics are revised and then revised again. Have you read, from the BEA themselves, how they do their data collection and dissemination?

http://www.bea.gov/scb/pdf/2011/07 July/0711_revisions.pdf

http://www.bea.gov/scb/pdf/2014/05 May/0514_gdp_and_the_economy.pdf#page=6

If you don't know this, then it seems to be your problem, not cheating on the part of someone else who spells out for you how they do their data collection and dissemination.

 

[jwoodie]

I realize it is futile to attempt logic with one of the most mentally ill people on the internet, but I have to ask = if they were really interested in cheating (as in misrepresenting the number for gain) why would they bother to correct it later? Why not just leave it a fake number? If I'm going to cheat at someone it wouldn't be worth my time if I came clean too.

In politics, it's all about today's news. Subsequently "revising" the GDP downward makes the next quarter look better. Comprende?

 

[SteadyMercury]

In politics, it's all about today's news. Subsequently "revising" the GDP downward makes the next quarter look better. Comprende?

That makes no sense. Not only does everyone know what a healthy quarter is regardless of previous, the total for the year would reflect the final revised numbers. I can assure you if Q2 ends up being 0.1% it'll look like shit regardless of Q1, and if it is 3.5% it'll look great regardless.

Furthermore the revisions go both directions, which pretty well sinks this particular conspiracy theory. From last year:

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/08/30/b...-quarter-gdp-revised-sharply-higher.html?_r=0

Gross domestic product, a broad measure of goods and services produced across the economy, grew in the second quarter at an annualized rate of 2.5 percent in April through June of this year, the Commerce Department reported on Thursday. The government initially estimated G.D.P. at 1.7 percent.

Now are we going to pile even more convoluted logic on to explain that?

 

[katsung47]

I realize it is futile to attempt logic with one of the most mentally ill people on the internet, but I have to ask = if they were really interested in cheating (as in misrepresenting the number for gain) why would they bother to correct it later? Why not just leave it a fake number? If I'm going to cheat at someone it wouldn't be worth my time if I came clean too.

842. GDP cheating to assure a prosperous stock market (7/6/2014)

Although the GDP of the first quarter of 2014 is the sharpest decline in five years, another index of economy goes in contrary way. The Dow Jones index reaches its history high(over 17,000) on July 3, 2014. Since April – despite the poor economy that GDP suffered a big loss – the stock market remains in high level. Obviously, the ruler of this country is planning a rising stock market trap. They don’t want the bad news of fallen GDP to interrupt their plan. Then we saw this dramatic GDP cheating opera. They deliberately put the original report of first quarter GDP having 0.1% increase. That’s the minimum unit to separate two thorough different worlds – positive and negative. With this small 0.1%, people thought the US economy was still increasing, though at the cliff of recession. With other cheating method and propaganda, they keep Americans in a dream that US economy is going to prosperous. Here is how Dow Jones index kept rushing to its recent peak – watch the timing (from April to June) while actually economy is in recession.

Dow Highest Closing Record

The Dow historical closing high is 16,947.08 set June 20, 2014. Normally, investors say "sell in May," but that's why you can't time the market. The Dow is on a winning streak, after falling to 15,372.80 on February 3. Here's this year's streak:

•16,945.92 on June 10
•16,943.10 on June 9
•16,924.28 on June 6
•16,836.11 on June 5
•16,743.63 on June 2
• 16,717.17 on May 30
•16,715.44 on May 13
•16,695.47 on May 12
•16,583.34 on May 9
•16,580.84 on April 30

Be noticed that April 30 was the day they gave original report of the first quarter GDP. Could you see from this chart how they build this upward ladder to lure innocent people in to join this “rush to pick up the peak fruit” movement?

 

[SteadyMercury]

Nope, people aren't buying and selling stock in April-June based on Q1 GDP, they are buying/selling based on what they anticipate will happen going forward.

 

[jwoodie]

841. GDP cheating (6/29/2014)

How the government cheat you on GDP of 1st quarter of 2014.

1. Apr 30, 2014. They said it increased 0.1%.
2. May 29, 2014. They said it decreased 1.0%.
3. Jun 25, 2014. They said it decreased 2.9%.

HERE IS THE SPIN:

12/31/13 GDP = 100 (Good news)
FIRST QUARTER 2014
04/30/14: GDP = 100.1 (Not too bad)
05/29/14: GDP = 99 (Rounding error)
06/25/14: GDP = 97.1 (Just wait til next quarter)
SECOND QUARTER 2014
07/30/14: GDP = 100 (Wow are we doing great!)
08/30/14: GDP = 99 (Still better than last quarter)
09/30/14: GDP = 98 (Economy continues to rise)
THIRD QUARTER 2014
10/30/14: GDP = 102 (Obama policies working!)*
11/30/14: GDP = 100 (Who cares - election over)
12/30/14: GDP = 98 (Blame it on GOP election gains)

*Due to Federal spending spike (like in 2012).

See how this works? (I know these are annualized percentages, but I used them for illustrative purposes.)

P.S. Anyone heard of Benghazi?

 

[JimmieD]

Although the GDP of the first quarter of 2014 is the sharpest decline in five years, another index of economy goes in contrary way. The Dow Jones index reaches its history high(over 17,000) on July 3, 2014.

The stock market does not necessarily co-move with GDP. GDP data is time late - and is revised twice after it's initial release. Nobody buying stocks (well, except you maybe) buys based on such time late data. You buy a stock based on expected future earnings. One way of thinking is that if the economy is doing poorly now, then it will do better in the future, so you buys stocks now in anticipation of future earnings.

It seems that you're the one who is just unaware of how GDP works or how to price or value a stock. Rather than ask a few critical questions and become informed, you opt for this:

Since April – despite the poor economy that GDP suffered a big loss – the stock market remains in high level. Obviously, the ruler of this country is planning a rising stock market trap. They don’t want the bad news of fallen GDP to interrupt their plan. Then we saw this dramatic GDP cheating opera. They deliberately put the original report of first quarter GDP having 0.1% increase.

Pure conspiratorial nonsense. Do you have evidence that the 1Q GDP was purposefully and deceitfully wrong? No. Have you read read about how the BEA does their data collection and dissemination? No. And the funnies part is that you're uninformed because you choose to be. Most people who follow economics or dabble in stocks already know this information.

(Most also prefer the S&P 500 over the Dow too due to how the indices are weighted and the number of constituents in the indices)

Be noticed that April 30 was the day they gave original report of the first quarter GDP. Could you see from this chart how they build this upward ladder to lure innocent people in to join this “rush to pick up the peak fruit” movement?

I think I get it. Did you lose money? It doesn't sound like innocence though; it sounds like willful ignorance.

 

[jwoodie]

Listing your degree(s) as a way of bolstering your argument is bad form and pathetic.

 

[JimmieD]

In politics, it's all about today's news. Subsequently "revising" the GDP downward makes the next quarter look better.

That's not actually how it works though. Are you aware of how the BEA collects and disseminates their statistics? Revising statistics is not a conspiracy or political ploy. Their methods are pretty well known.

If you have actual evidence though to support your claim, please feel free to share.

 

[JimmieD]

How the government cheat you on GDP of 1st quarter of 2014.

1. Apr 30, 2014. They said it increased 0.1%.
2. May 29, 2014. They said it decreased 1.0%.
3. Jun 25, 2014. They said it decreased 2.9%.

The reason they revise their numbers is because the earliest numbers are statistical estimates based on incomplete data. As the data is collected, revisions are made that better reflect ground truth. This isn't political behavior - it's statistical estimation. Nothing more.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the "second" estimate issued last month. In the second estimate, real GDP was estimated to have decreased 1.0 percent. With the third estimate for the first quarter, the increase in personal consumption expenditures (PCE) was smaller than previously estimated, and the decline in exports was larger than previously estimated (for more information, see "Revisions" on page 3).

News Release: Gross Domestic Product

​

 

[katsung47]

843. Psychological trick (7/10/2014)

All the three claimed figures of the first quarter GDP were meticulously selected to make it a smooth cheating.

1. They said it increased 0.1%. A minimum number of 0.1 to make it a positive increase.
2. They said it decreased 1.0%. 1 is the smallest integer, next to 1 is 0. So they hint it’s a smallest decrease.
3. They said it decreased 2.9%. People know the merchants used to price the merchandise at 99 cents. It’s a psychological gimmick. They used the same trick to avoid an upper numerical grade.

They split the decrease number in three gradual decreasing number, buffered the impact on people psychologically. With other cheating method, they successfully push the stock market to history high while US economy is in recession.
They invent another method to calculate the unemployment and say It is only 6.1% right now. They told you so while actually one third of Americans are unemployed.

People in government lie to us because they can

When faced with the highest levels of unemployment in American History why does the government trumpet a falling unemployment rate?

By Dr. Robert Owens

(INTELLIHUB) –
The Corporations Once Known as the Mainstream Media regales us with oxymoronic statements such as, “Despite the unemployment rate plummeting, more than 92 million Americans remain out of the labor force.” The Great Recession grinds on in the lives of everyday working people while our leaders talk about a recovery that only benefits them and their cronies.

People in government lie to us because they can - Intellihub.com