GALLUP: Romney Up 51%-46%...

[Numeros]

I just found this and I find it interesting:

For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not
far off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, preelection polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of
7.52 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.37 percentage points away
from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote.

The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls (as reported on pollster.com).

1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

Another citation of the invalid Fordham list!

As I told someone else here just a few posts back, that Initial Report from Fordham is long-outdated. It was compiled the day after the election, before all ballots had been tallied. It was based on an ESTIMATE of a 6.15 point Obama win. That early estimate was wrong; Obama won by 7.28 per the FEC. A number of sources incorrectly cite this outdated, incorrect list instead of Fordham's subsequent final analysis, which found that eight pollsters were more accurate than Rasmussen.

Being new here, I'm not allowed to post direct links, but the final Fordham analysis is titled "Preelection Poll Accuracy in the 2008 General Elections." Look it up.

Obama won by 7.28 points, 52.93% to 45.65%.
Rasmussen underestimated Obama by projecting a 6-point win, 52% to 46%.
Both CNN and Ipsos were more accurate with their 7-point projections, 53% to 46%.

 

[Plasmaball]

since you seem inept in clicking on a link, here ya go -
IBD/TIPP POLL - Investors.com
Sample Size: 930 likely voters (identified from 1074 registered voters with party affiliation of 38% Dem, 31% GOP, 32% Ind.)

William O'Neil - Executive Profile

and?

There are none so blind as those who will not see...

and you know those dems all said they where voting obama?

 

[Cowman]

awesome! You didnt bring much to the table anyways....

ain't no reason to bring anything. it's only you....

because you dont have anything to bring, i know we covered this already.

I agree... just another retard folded into the flock.

 

[mex]

awesome! You didnt bring much to the table anyways....

ain't no reason to bring anything. it's only you....

because you dont have anything to bring, i know we covered this already.

another great comeback. whatever you say, sport.

 

[mex]

ain't no reason to bring anything. it's only you....

because you dont have anything to bring, i know we covered this already.

I agree... just another retard folded into the flock.

another predictable demonstration of liberal compassion.

lose the debate, start with the name-calling.

it's a shame that's all you got.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

because you dont have anything to bring, i know we covered this already.

I agree... just another retard folded into the flock.

another predictable demonstration of liberal compassion.

lose the debate, start with the name-calling.

it's a shame that's all you got.

They support obama enough said.

 

[mex]

I agree... just another retard folded into the flock.

another predictable demonstration of liberal compassion.

lose the debate, start with the name-calling.

it's a shame that's all you got.

They support obama enough said.

It's pathetic. "You're a retard". "nuh-uh." "yuh-huh."

gonna be fun reading their posts when the truth comes out about Benghazi. These next few weeks are going to be interesting to see The Annointed One as he twists, turns,and flatulates trying to wiggle himself out of this one.

 

[bigrebnc1775]

another predictable demonstration of liberal compassion.

lose the debate, start with the name-calling.

it's a shame that's all you got.

They support obama enough said.

It's pathetic. "You're a retard". "nuh-uh." "yuh-huh."

gonna be fun reading their posts when the truth comes out about Benghazi. These next few weeks are going to be interesting to see The Annointed One as he twists, turns,and flatulates trying to wiggle himself out of this one.

nope not going to happen because of idiots like those two and others the media will not press their golden child on this, OH they'll glean over the subject but will not ask the tough questions.

 

[mex]

They support obama enough said.

It's pathetic. "You're a retard". "nuh-uh." "yuh-huh."

gonna be fun reading their posts when the truth comes out about Benghazi. These next few weeks are going to be interesting to see The Annointed One as he twists, turns,and flatulates trying to wiggle himself out of this one.

nope not going to happen because of idiots like those two and others the media will not press their golden child on this, OH they'll glean over the subject but will not ask the tough questions.

Yep. I'm sure we'll find out it's all just a big misunderstanding. 7 hours wasn't NEARLY enough time to organize assistance for those brave defenders. Panetta was right... you don't send people into harms way until you have a congressional hearing to determine if it's necessary. Maybe even take a poll...

 

[CaféAuLait]

I just found this and I find it interesting:

For all the derision directed toward pre-election polling, the final poll estimates were not
far off from the actual nationwide voteshares for the two candidates. On average, preelection polls from 23 public polling organizations projected a Democratic advantage of
7.52 percentage points on Election Day, which is only about 1.37 percentage points away
from the current estimate of a 6.15-point Obama margin in the national popular vote.

The following list ranks the 23 organizations by the accuracy of their final, national preelection polls (as reported on pollster.com).

1. Rasmussen (11/1-3)**
1. Pew (10/29-11/1)**
2. YouGov/Polimetrix (10/18-11/1)
3. Harris Interactive (10/20-27)
4. GWU (Lake/Tarrance) (11/2-3)*
5. Diageo/Hotline (10/31-11/2)*
5. ARG (10/25-27)*
6. CNN (10/30-11/1)
6. Ipsos/McClatchy (10/30-11/1)
7. DailyKos.com (D)/Research 2000 (11/1-3)
8. AP/Yahoo/KN (10/17-27)
9. Democracy Corps (D) (10/30-11/2)
10. FOX (11/1-2)
11. Economist/YouGov (10/25-27)
12. IBD/TIPP (11/1-3)
13. NBC/WSJ (11/1-2)
14. ABC/Post (10/30-11/2)
15. Marist College (11/3)
16. CBS (10/31-11/2)
17. Gallup (10/31-11/2)
18. Reuters/ C-SPAN/ Zogby (10/31-11/3)
19. CBS/Times (10/25-29)
20. Newsweek (10/22-23)

Another citation of the invalid Fordham list!

As I told someone else here just a few posts back, that Initial Report from Fordham is long-outdated. It was compiled the day after the election, before all ballots had been tallied. It was based on an ESTIMATE of a 6.15 point Obama win. That early estimate was wrong; Obama won by 7.28 per the FEC. A number of sources incorrectly cite this outdated, incorrect list instead of Fordham's subsequent final analysis, which found that eight pollsters were more accurate than Rasmussen.

Being new here, I'm not allowed to post direct links, but the final Fordham analysis is titled "Preelection Poll Accuracy in the 2008 General Elections." Look it up.

Obama won by 7.28 points, 52.93% to 45.65%.
Rasmussen underestimated Obama by projecting a 6-point win, 52% to 46%.
Both CNN and Ipsos were more accurate with their 7-point projections, 53% to 46%.

Oh good grief. Calm down. This thread is about Gallup and that is why I posted it. It shows them 17th out of 23.

The second set of data shows Democracy Corps with the closest call and Fox as the second closest to call the race. If you wish to get that close in your opinion of the above information, then 538/Nate Silver was far BELOW Fox pollsters for accuracy.

http://www.fordham.edu/images/acade...campaign_/2008 poll accuracy panagopoulos.pdf

 

[tinydancer]

oh this meme again.....Shut up trash.

It's called methodology. If one over samples one can skew a poll. It's not a meme.

What's with the name calling? It's so school yard. It's so liberal.

yeah its been a talking point of you tards for over a few weeks now trashy.
Its a way for you people to excuse if Romrom looses. The victim card.

Have you completely lost it?

The polls are getting tight as predicted. They have to in the last weeks.

 

[Plasmaball]

It's called methodology. If one over samples one can skew a poll. It's not a meme.

What's with the name calling? It's so school yard. It's so liberal.

yeah its been a talking point of you tards for over a few weeks now trashy.
Its a way for you people to excuse if Romrom looses. The victim card.

Have you completely lost it?

The polls are getting tight as predicted. They have to in the last weeks.

not at all.....

 

[freedombecki]

Well, several Polls are now showing Romney hitting the crucial 50% mark, or surpassing it. That's a very good sign for him.

According to today’s Gallup tracking poll, Mitt Romney’s lead over incumbent President Barack Obama has stretched to a five point margin. Romney is now up among likely voters 51% to 46%. Yesterday, the tracking poll had Romney up by only three points, 50% to 47%.

The lead is broadening.

That’s no doubt due to President Obama’s insistence on going small with his campaign. From Big Bird to binders to bayonets to ads suggesting that voting for Obama is like losing your virginity, this campaign has minimized the issues the American people face. And it’s paying the price for it.

The trends are clearly against Barack Obama. It has been three weeks – the October 9, 2012, tracking poll – since Barack Obama was even tied with Romney. And after the final presidential debate, which liberals widely believed Barack Obama won, the polls have not shifted an inch overall.

Gallup: Romney Up 51%-46%

When the news is that Obama used his middle finger in describing his badmouthing of Romney at New Hampshire, I don't think that is going to go down well with retired people who are shocked by such disgusting callous hatred as that.

 

[Plasmaball]

Well, several Polls are now showing Romney hitting the crucial 50% mark, or surpassing it. That's a very good sign for him.

According to today’s Gallup tracking poll, Mitt Romney’s lead over incumbent President Barack Obama has stretched to a five point margin. Romney is now up among likely voters 51% to 46%. Yesterday, the tracking poll had Romney up by only three points, 50% to 47%.

The lead is broadening.

That’s no doubt due to President Obama’s insistence on going small with his campaign. From Big Bird to binders to bayonets to ads suggesting that voting for Obama is like losing your virginity, this campaign has minimized the issues the American people face. And it’s paying the price for it.

The trends are clearly against Barack Obama. It has been three weeks – the October 9, 2012, tracking poll – since Barack Obama was even tied with Romney. And after the final presidential debate, which liberals widely believed Barack Obama won, the polls have not shifted an inch overall.

Gallup: Romney Up 51%-46%

When the news is that Obama used his middle finger in describing his badmouthing of Romney at New Hampshire, I don't think that is going to go down well with retired people who are shocked by such disgusting callous hatred as that.

he didnt do that..

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Romney and Gallup will both be losers this November:

Oct. 26: State Poll Averages Usually Call Election Right

The FiveThirtyEight forecast model has found the past several days of battleground state polling to be reasonably strong for Barack Obama, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing as a result. The intuition behind this ought to be very simple: Mr. Obama is maintaining leads in the polls in Ohio and other states that are sufficient for him to win 270 electoral votes.

Friday featured a large volume of swing state polling, including three polls of Ohio, each of which showed Mr. Obama ahead by margins ranging from two to four percentage points.

Between Ohio and the other battleground states, Mr. Obama held leads in 11 polls on Friday, against four leads for Mitt Romney’s and two ties.

[O]ur state-by-state forecasts are extremely similar to those issued by our competitors. For example, we had Mr. Obama projected to win Ohio by 2.4 percentage points as of Friday. That compares to a 2.3 percentage-point lead for Mr. Obama in the Real Clear Politics average of Ohio polls, a 2.9-point advantage for him in the Huffington Post Pollster model, and a 2.7-point edge for him according to Talking Points Memo’s Poll Tracker.

t is misinformed to refer to Ohio as a toss-up. Mr. Obama is the favorite there, and because of Ohio’s central position in the Electoral College, he is therefore the overall favorite in the election.

Oct. 26: State Poll Averages Usually Call Election Right - NYTimes.com

 

[Plasmaball]

ain't no reason to bring anything. it's only you....

because you dont have anything to bring, i know we covered this already.

another great comeback. whatever you say, sport.

i figured you would agree, you seem the type who gt told a lot he wouldnt amount to much.

 

[mex]

because you dont have anything to bring, i know we covered this already.

another great comeback. whatever you say, sport.

i figured you would agree, you seem the type who gt told a lot he wouldnt amount to much.

I can tell from this post you've reached wit's end.

wasn't that long of a trip, was it.

 

[Plasmaball]

another great comeback. whatever you say, sport.

i figured you would agree, you seem the type who gt told a lot he wouldnt amount to much.

I can tell from this post you've reached wit's end.

wasn't that long of a trip, was it.

boring......

 

[mex]

only because you're such a boor.

 

[Plasmaball]

only because you're such a boor.

Wow original...its like you stole that from me.........zzzzzzzzzz