Gallup: Romney Leading Among Early Voters

[Trajan]

It must be a conspiracy....as is this;

Chuck Todd
✔
@chucktodd
It's official, both Obama campaign and Xroads are on the air in PA. Spending figures coming soon.
30 Oct 12 ReplyRetweetFavorite


The admin or their minions are buying air time in the greater Detroit market too........

wonder why......

 

[auditor0007]

Different narrative than what we've been hearing.

There are a number of explanations as to what Gallup is reporting. The first is that they are spot on and everyone else is wrong. The second is that they are way off and everyone else is right. It will be very interesting to see what they are reporting a couple days before the election.

One interesting thing I see from their polling on early voters is that in the West 55% of voters plan to vote before election day, while in the Midwest only 23% plan on voting before election day. In the South, 40% say they plan to vote before election day. In the East only 9% are planning on voting early, but not many states in the East offer easy early voting. Most of those states require an excuse and then you must vote absentee. The difference though, between the West and South versus the Midwest doesn't make sense.

It might be they are undersampling minorities..particularly hispanics.

Who, very well, might tip this election.

There has been quite a bit of talk about possible undersampling of Hispanics. We will find out next Tuesday.

 

[Charles_Main]

And the rout is on?

**GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters

The real shock is that most of those early voters are in the Western and Southern states, the majority of which are Republican strongholds.

But the fact is the people most likely to vote Early are the Poor. Which even in the Red states tend to be the more Blue People.

 

[freedombecki]

Gallup is no longer a acceptable poll to the left come on you know that.

Yup, ras is 'right wing', Gallup doesn't appear to be towing the admin. line so, I wonder what excuse will be now?

Finding the right moving van ?

 

[Jonny]

That's great News.. But will "Sandy" affect theelection results?

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

Democrats Hold Early-Voting Advantage Over Republicans

In Iowa, more than 470,000 people had cast ballots through Oct. 27, according to the Iowa secretary of state’s office. If as many people vote this year as did in 2008, that would represent 30 percent of the total vote. Registered Democrats have cast 44.6 percent of the ballots so far, compared with 32 percent by Republicans and 23.3 percent by independents.
Polls Versus Voting

“The main thing is not to look at the polling but to look at the voting,” David Axelrod, a senior campaign strategist for President Barack Obama, said yesterday on CNN’s “State of the Union” program. “We are mounting up a very, very large lead in Iowa based on where those early votes are coming from.”

Democrats Hold Early-Voting Advantage Over Republicans - Businessweek

 

[Trajan]

And the rout is on?

**GALLUP SHOCK** Romney Up 52-45% Among Early Voters

The real shock is that most of those early voters are in the Western and Southern states, the majority of which are Republican strongholds.

But the fact is the people most likely to vote Early are the Poor. Which even in the Red states tend to be the more Blue People.

thats the " Po' " to you sir or "da Po' "....

 

[mamooth]

Florida GOP is in a panic because the Democrats are slaughering them in early voting.

https://twitter.com/EvanAxelbank/status/263497034353483776/photo/1

"The early and absentee turnout is starting to look more troubling. As of yesterday, Republicans made up only 22% of early voters and 30% of returned absentee votes."

And the average all the recent polls shows Obama edging ahead in Florida.

Talking Points Memo

 

[George Costanza]

This just in! Abercrombe has Obama at 56, Romney at 44. Slater has it slightly less at 54-46, Obama.

 

[Trajan]

Democrats Hold Early-Voting Advantage Over Republicans

In Iowa, more than 470,000 people had cast ballots through Oct. 27, according to the Iowa secretary of state’s office. If as many people vote this year as did in 2008, that would represent 30 percent of the total vote. Registered Democrats have cast 44.6 percent of the ballots so far, compared with 32 percent by Republicans and 23.3 percent by independents.
Polls Versus Voting

“The main thing is not to look at the polling but to look at the voting,” David Axelrod, a senior campaign strategist for President Barack Obama, said yesterday on CNN’s “State of the Union” program. “We are mounting up a very, very large lead in Iowa based on where those early votes are coming from.”

Democrats Hold Early-Voting Advantage Over Republicans - Businessweek

Just as the presidential race is deadlocked in the campaign’s final days, the candidates are also running about even when it comes to the ground game. Voters nationally, as well those in the closely contested battleground states, report being contacted at about the same rates by each of the campaigns. And with a fifth of likely voters reporting already having cast their ballots, neither Barack Obama nor Mitt Romney has a clear advantage among early voters. This is in sharp contrast to early voting at this point four years ago, which favored Obama by a wide margin.

In Deadlocked Race, Neither Side Has Ground Game Advantage | Pew Research Center for the People and the Press

 

[Trajan]

Released: October 29, 2012
Presidential Race Dead Even; Romney Maintains Turnout Edge
Obama 47%-Romney 47%


Presidential Race Dead Even; Romney Maintains Turnout Edge | Pew Research Center for the People and the Press

 

[NYcarbineer]

Different narrative than what we've been hearing.

Romney Leads Among Early Voters, Similar to His Likely Voter Lead

Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

In U.S., 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots

That's because most of the Middle Atlantic/New England states, all those blues,

don't HAVE early voting.

 

[Conservative]

This is directly from the Gallup article:

2012 Early Voters Are Older, Concentrated in the West

Early voting this election year is most prevalent in the West, followed by the South and the Midwest, but is relatively light in the East.

So...

...early voting occurs disproportionately in areas where Romney is stronger, less so in areas where Obama will dominate,

and OMG Romney has a lead among those voters!!!!!!!!

That's a huge turn around from 2008. Gee, I wonder why???

 

[jillian]

Different narrative than what we've been hearing.

Romney Leads Among Early Voters, Similar to His Likely Voter Lead

Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

In U.S., 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots

That's b/c it seems. Like Gallup isn't on the same planet as any other pollsters.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Different narrative than what we've been hearing.

Romney Leads Among Early Voters, Similar to His Likely Voter Lead

Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

In U.S., 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots

That's because most of the Middle Atlantic/New England states, all those blues,

don't HAVE early voting.

Perhaps, but being that we elect the president state by state, that doesn't really matter. Those "blue" states are going to be blue. Whether they end up only a little blue or dark blue on Election Day won't alter the outcome. Your point would be more valid if we elected by national popular vote.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Different narrative than what we've been hearing.

Romney Leads Among Early Voters, Similar to His Likely Voter Lead

Thus far, early voters do not seem to be swaying the election toward either candidate.

Romney currently leads Obama 52% to 45% among voters who say they have already cast their ballots. However, that is comparable to Romney's 51% to 46% lead among all likely voters in Gallup's Oct. 22-28 tracking polling. At the same time, the race is tied at 49% among those who have not yet voted but still intend to vote early, suggesting these voters could cause the race to tighten. However, Romney leads 51% to 45% among the much larger group of voters who plan to vote on Election Day, Nov. 6.

In U.S., 15% of Registered Voters Have Already Cast Ballots

That's b/c it seems. Like Gallup isn't on the same planet as any other pollsters.

That may be. The post election analysis of all these polls is going to be very interesting reading. I'm curious to find out why it is we are seeing results so all over the place from various pollsters.