Gallup: Obama +2

[DiveCon]

But that model isn't necessarily appropriate here. We're talking about a very high participation race. Likely voters is just based on whether people voted in the last election. That doesn't account for newly registered voters or young people who look like they're going to be coming out in droves for Obama.

just pointing to where it is
nothing more

 

[The Paperboy]

But that model isn't necessarily appropriate here. We're talking about a very high participation race. Likely voters is just based on whether people voted in the last election. That doesn't account for newly registered voters or young people who look like they're going to be coming out in droves for Obama.

It'll be very interesting to sort out in the week after the election whether the polls were right or wrong, whether the young actually made a difference and what the real story is on first time voters.

One thing is for certain: We don't yet.

 

[The Paperboy]

But the economy IS dominating the headlines. And McCain's been found lacking on the subject. In case you haven't noticed, it's why McCain (and, by extension, the cheerleaders here) have been trying to change the subject to ACORN, to Ayers, to Michelle Obama, to Obama's half brother in Africa ... to anything that will stop kicking the bejesus out of McCain. The problem for you is the economy sucks and it sucks because it's the end result of failed economic policies you guys have been trying to push since Reagan.l

Do you want a terrorist attack? I know McCain's handlers would be breathing a sigh of relief.

No wants a terrorist attack and I'm sure Obama was really, really, really sad when the stock market tanked.

 

[jillian]

No wants a terrorist attack and I'm sure Obama was really, really, really sad when the stock market tanked.

Nobody wants the stock market to tank either. But circumstances are what they are. Personally, I think we will end up with a much better government for it.

Of course, I still remember all the orange alerts and red alerts every time Kerry went up in the polls.

 

[The Paperboy]

I think we will end up with a much better government for it.

Not sure I get the connection...

 

[jillian]

Not sure I get the connection...

Because people will put their country above whatever discomfort they may feel with the idea of a black president if their pocketbooks are in trouble.

In other words, "it's the economy, stupid". (not meaning you're stupid. lol...) And it could, hopefully, get us away from a continuation of the policies of the most failed administation in my lifetime.

 

[DiveCon]

Because people will put their country above whatever discomfort they may feel with the idea of a black president if their pocketbooks are in trouble.

In other words, "it's the economy, stupid". (not meaning you're stupid. lol...) And it could, hopefully, get us away from a continuation of the policies of the most failed administation in my lifetime.

you arent old enough to remember Carter?

 

[elvis]

just did a quick look over the RCP data, and Obama's up 78-19 in electoral votes for states where the gap is within 5 pts, his electoral lead is much greater than his popular lead

In '92, Clinton got 370 EVs with just a 5.5 point plurality over HW Bush, Obama is coming close doing the same

Perot had a lot to do with that.

 

[Larkinn]

But that would take him actually reading the whole article.

It's weird that Gallup has 3 or 4 different polls. Seems to me they don't know which model to go with.

They don't. They just put all the info out there and let people decide what they want.

Republicans and Drudge, of course, cherry pick the one that is most favorable to them

Here is an aggregate of them all. Doesn't match as well as just the Gallup, but giving all the information is a bitch, eh?