Gallup did matchups between Obama and the major contenders. Wall Street and Overseas Fat Cats Feast On Federal Reserve Cabbage - HUMAN EVENTS It shows Romney leading him by 2 Point, Perry tied, Bachmann trailing by 4 and Ron Paul. (Yes, crazier than batshit Ron Paul) by 2 points. So on the basis of this, there is not any great advantage of nominating someone who is "moderate" or "Sensible"... Any of these people could potentially beat Obama. All are within the "margin of error". Romney probably has a slight advantage due to name recongition, but that's about it.