Gallup is Off Kilter!

[toomuchtime_]

Gallup is very likely not accurate, being all the other pollsters get very different results. It's not going to be all the other pollsters who are wrong. That's statistics, not sour grapes. It's the same reason why I pointed out that the Zogby poll showing Obama +6 in Florida was almost certainly wrong.

Gallup is likely very accurate, as are the other major polling organizations, given their assumptions about what constitutes a likely voter. There are three kinds of voters, committed voters, leaners and undecideds. Among committed voters, by most of the analyses I've seen, Romney supporters are more enthusiastic than Obama supporters, so it is likely Romney will have an edge in this vote. The big question is will those who lean toward a candidate but are not committed take the trouble to vote and how many undecideds will remain undecided and stay home. Defining a likely voter is to an extent estimating the voter's level of enthusiasm for the candidate.

that is fair point. not sure gallup is right but romney does have edge. it turn out and thing worries me is gop really hate obama and want rid of him. worried dems won,t get turn out on same level this time and that will hurt obama chances

Right, the enthusiasm gap favors Romney and despite claims about Obama's ground game, in 2008 at this time McCain had run out of money and was closing campaign operations in several states while Obama was outspending him by a ratio of five to one, so that the airwaves in battleground states were flooded with Obama ads and devoid of any McCain ads. This year, of course, Romney is now spending as much or more on advertising than Obama in the battleground states.

 

[Cheddarmelon]

Simply apply Occams Razor.

Decide it one poll is off, or the rest of them are.

if you are unable to conlude from that the more likely choice, you're engaging in self deception.

 

[alan1]

Gallup is very likely not accurate, being all the other pollsters get very different results. It's not going to be all the other pollsters who are wrong. That's statistics, not sour grapes. It's the same reason why I pointed out that the Zogby poll showing Obama +6 in Florida was almost certainly wrong.

Just remember, Gallup has a history of being the most accurate poll at predicting Presidential elections.

 

[decker]

Gallup is very likely not accurate, being all the other pollsters get very different results. It's not going to be all the other pollsters who are wrong. That's statistics, not sour grapes. It's the same reason why I pointed out that the Zogby poll showing Obama +6 in Florida was almost certainly wrong.

Just remember, Gallup has a history of being the most accurate poll at predicting Presidential elections.

which is what i fear. if their right, it landslde for romney

 

[Cheddarmelon]

Gallup is very likely not accurate, being all the other pollsters get very different results. It's not going to be all the other pollsters who are wrong. That's statistics, not sour grapes. It's the same reason why I pointed out that the Zogby poll showing Obama +6 in Florida was almost certainly wrong.

Just remember, Gallup has a history of being the most accurate poll at predicting Presidential elections.

which is what i fear. if their right, it landslde for romney

You're starting to sound like a Republican. relax.

 

[alan1]

Gallup is very likely not accurate, being all the other pollsters get very different results. It's not going to be all the other pollsters who are wrong. That's statistics, not sour grapes. It's the same reason why I pointed out that the Zogby poll showing Obama +6 in Florida was almost certainly wrong.

Just remember, Gallup has a history of being the most accurate poll at predicting Presidential elections.

which is what i fear. if their right, it landslde for romney

I'm pretty sure it won't be a landslide no matter which way it goes.

 

[freedombecki]

Gallup is very likely not accurate, being all the other pollsters get very different results. It's not going to be all the other pollsters who are wrong. That's statistics, not sour grapes. It's the same reason why I pointed out that the Zogby poll showing Obama +6 in Florida was almost certainly wrong.

Gallup has never shown favoritism to conservatives before or ever.

They have, however, been one of the most consistently correct pollsters in predicting presidential outcomes since 1935, except for 1 year--1948 when Truman beat Dewey, they missed it somehow.

You better not pout!

 

[decker]

Just remember, Gallup has a history of being the most accurate poll at predicting Presidential elections.

which is what i fear. if their right, it landslde for romney

You're starting to sound like a Republican. relax.

i am not a gop. i want obama to win . of course battle is on but i still just worry about national polls. even more when on nbc meet the press, chuck todd said white house be worried if polls are same in two weeks time, two days before election

dems need to get base out big time.

 

[decker]

Just remember, Gallup has a history of being the most accurate poll at predicting Presidential elections.

which is what i fear. if their right, it landslde for romney

I'm pretty sure it won't be a landslide no matter which way it goes.

well maybe your right but fear romney still has edge and mo,

president and his team need to double effects in swing states to stay in this game like never before

 

[decker]

Gallup is very likely not accurate, being all the other pollsters get very different results. It's not going to be all the other pollsters who are wrong. That's statistics, not sour grapes. It's the same reason why I pointed out that the Zogby poll showing Obama +6 in Florida was almost certainly wrong.

Gallup has never shown favoritism to conservatives before or ever.

They have, however, been one of the most consistently correct pollsters in predicting presidential outcomes since 1935, except for 1 year--1948 when Truman beat Dewey, they missed it somehow.

You better not pout!

so you must be confident that is all over then going by gallup if their right

 

[copsnrobbers]

well in the end if his polling proves true then no doubt great new for gop and well anyway panic stations for me.

Not sure what that means, decker, but for America it means an end into the foray of Marxism as principal in Washington and not the founder's Bill of Rights as well as their election to put power into the people's hands through their local states and counties, and not the Fed. Recent pushes in Washington have been for total government takeover and zero state's rights. This is incongruent with America's proud inheritance of freedom.

The charming thing about being a boomer for me was now that the era is gone, it was kinda nice growing up in post WWII times when people's attitudes were unified as each other's best allies, learned from our returning fighting men who had respect for each other by being saved by another American who jumped into the line of fire to save his buds from decimation by enemy bullets and mortars.

People today don't have that sense of oneness any longer, except for a brief couple of weeks after 9/11 until Hillary Clinton held up an asinine sign saying "Bush Gnu." That was the lie that set off more hatred in the nation than an atomic bomb, and we are no longer one people sympathetic in tragedy with one another. Hillary traded in national unity for a pile of crap, and her friends didn't call her on the carpet for it, they celebrated and exulted in the lie.

i respect your view and strong feeings . I understand it your country deep down. I don,t agree with your views on clinton but i understand where your coming from.

Look gop are ahead and if romney win then i wish him all the best and hope america come together after all this

American people have always disagreed here and there but we were never divided.
We are now.. This Fuck has to be defeated or its going to get much worse.

 

[alan1]

which is what i fear. if their right, it landslde for romney

I'm pretty sure it won't be a landslide no matter which way it goes.

well maybe your right but fear romney still has edge and mo,

president and his team need to double effects in swing states to stay in this game like never before

A month ago, most polls called my state a swing state but now, almost all polls call it for Mr Romney with a narrow margin (it's still a "swing state" in some polls).
My state went to Mr Obama in 2008. I suppose that is why they consider it a "swing state" even though it will most definitely be on Mr Romney's side come election day.

 

[decker]

Not sure what that means, decker, but for America it means an end into the foray of Marxism as principal in Washington and not the founder's Bill of Rights as well as their election to put power into the people's hands through their local states and counties, and not the Fed. Recent pushes in Washington have been for total government takeover and zero state's rights. This is incongruent with America's proud inheritance of freedom.

The charming thing about being a boomer for me was now that the era is gone, it was kinda nice growing up in post WWII times when people's attitudes were unified as each other's best allies, learned from our returning fighting men who had respect for each other by being saved by another American who jumped into the line of fire to save his buds from decimation by enemy bullets and mortars.

People today don't have that sense of oneness any longer, except for a brief couple of weeks after 9/11 until Hillary Clinton held up an asinine sign saying "Bush Gnu." That was the lie that set off more hatred in the nation than an atomic bomb, and we are no longer one people sympathetic in tragedy with one another. Hillary traded in national unity for a pile of crap, and her friends didn't call her on the carpet for it, they celebrated and exulted in the lie.

i respect your view and strong feeings . I understand it your country deep down. I don,t agree with your views on clinton but i understand where your coming from.

Look gop are ahead and if romney win then i wish him all the best and hope america come together after all this

American people have always disagreed here and there but we were never divided.
We are now.. This Fuck has to be defeated or its going to get much worse.

well not sure he a fuck but that your view. Look i said to most gop supporters, if you win 16 days time then well done and enjoy the victory.

 

[decker]

I'm pretty sure it won't be a landslide no matter which way it goes.

well maybe your right but fear romney still has edge and mo,

president and his team need to double effects in swing states to stay in this game like never before

A month ago, most polls called my state a swing state but now, almost all polls call it for Mr Romney with a narrow margin (it's still a "swing state" in some polls).
My state went to Mr Obama in 2008. I suppose that is why they consider it a "swing state" even though it will most definitely be on Mr Romney's side come election day.

well true and romney got edge in swing states. look it going your guy way and can understand you very high confidence.

but look obama behind but when your the underdog you just keep going and working harder then ever to turn around. still 16 days left so won,t give up the cause yet