Future sea level rise from the ice sheets

Discussion in 'Environment' started by Trakar, Jan 17, 2013.

  1. Trakar
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    Trakar VIP Member

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    An expert judgement assessment of future sea level rise from the ice sheets
    J. L. Bamber1
    W. P. Aspinall2

    Abstract

    A major gap in predictive capability concerning the future evolution of the ice sheets was identified in the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. As a consequence, it has been suggested that the AR4 estimates of future sea-level rise from this source may have been underestimated. Various approaches for addressing this problem have been tried, including semi-empirical models and conceptual studies. Here, we report a formalized pooling of expert views on uncertainties in future ice-sheet contributions using a structured elicitation approach. We find that the median estimate of such contributions is 29 cm—substantially larger than in the AR4—while the upper 95th percentile value is 84 cm, implying a conceivable risk of a sea-level rise of greater than a metre by 2100. On the critical question of whether recent ice-sheet behaviour is due to variability in the ice sheet–climate system or reflects a long-term trend, expert opinion is shown to be both very uncertain and undecided.

    (the paper has just been released, if anyone is interested I will see if I can find an open-source link for it, or at least provide a few more details in excerpt form from the pay-walled journal paper.)
     
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  2. waltky
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    waltky Wise ol' monkey Supporting Member

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    Granny got Uncle Ferd an' possum puttin' pontoons onna side o' the trailer...
    :redface:
    Global Warming Report: By End of Century, Sea Will Rise 0.66 Feet--Or 6.6 Feet
    March 6, 2013 – An Obama administration-commissioned report predicts that because of climate change the global sea level will rise somewhere between 0.66 feet and 6.6 feet by the year 2100, citing a "lack of knowledge" as the reason for such a wide range of levels.
     
  3. Old Rocks
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    The climate modelers have been bitten bad in the area of prediction. In 2000, these 'alarmists' were predicting an ice free Artice Ocean for 2100. Right now, it looks as if we will see that before 2020, possibly even in the next two years. "The Storms of our Grandchildren" seem to have arrived a bit early. We are poking a rather large beast with a stick, and have little idea of what the results will be.
     
  4. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    Ipcc=joke
     
  5. waltky
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    waltky Wise ol' monkey Supporting Member

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    Caribbean showin' signs of sea level rise...
    :eek:
    Encroaching sea already a threat in Caribbean
    May 7,`13 -- The old coastal road in this fishing village at the eastern edge of Grenada sits under a couple of feet of murky saltwater, which regularly surges past a hastily-erected breakwater of truck tires and bundles of driftwood intended to hold back the Atlantic Ocean.

     
  6. whitehall
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    whitehall Gold Member

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    While the freaking a-hole scientists, who need those federal grants to keep them in their Lexus cars, are "formalizing, conceptualizing and estimizing, the rest of us are enjoying their geological good fortune in being born in a declining ice age. It's the sun stupid.
     
  7. Katzndogz
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    Katzndogz Diamond Member

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    Fill a glass half full of water. Drop in a few ice cubes. Carefully mark the water level. Wait for the ice cubes to melt. Check the water level.

    Hint. It will be the same with melted ice cubes as it was with frozen ice cubes.

    In other news, solar activity has caused the polar ice caps on Mars to all but disappear and in a few years they may disappear.
     
  8. Old Rocks
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    My, my, here is another dumb fuck that believes that the Greenland and Antarctic continents don't exist. There are thousands of feet of ice sitting above sea level on those continents, and it will raise the level of the sea as it melts.
     
  9. SSDD
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    And you believe that the ice sheets are melting in the face of overwhelming data to the contrary...simply because models that have been proven deficient for decades say that they are going to melt..

    Greenland Meltdown Driven by Collapse of Glaciers at Ocean Outlets [Slide Show]: Scientific American


    Greenland warming of 1920?1930 and 1995?2005 - Chylek - 2006 - Geophysical Research Letters - Wiley Online Library


    Interannual variability of Greenland ice losses from satellite gravimetry - Chen - 2011 - Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth (1978?2012) - Wiley Online Library


    Greenland ice cores reveal warm climate of the past


    CP - Abstract - On the origin of multidecadal to centennial Greenland temperature anomalies over the past 800 yr


    https://events.icecube.wisc.edu/contributionDisplay.py?contribId=19&sessionId=7&confId=34


    ScienceDirect.com - Quaternary Science Reviews - Late Holocene expansion of Istorvet ice cap, Liverpool Land, east Greenland


    Ice core shows Antarctic Peninsula warming is nothing unusual ? The Register


    Sea ice trends in the Antarctic and their relationship to surface air temperature during 1979?2009 - Springer


    TC - Abstract - A synthesis of the Antarctic surface mass balance during the last 800 yr

    And it could go on and on and on peer reviewed paper after peer reviewed paper demonstrating beyond any doubt that your fears simply do not reflect reality.
     

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