FOX News Stepped in it Again; They Give Jones a 10 point Lead Over Moore in AL

[JimBowie1958]

It is simple to see why as well; they over sampled Dimocrats, quite a bit.

Credibility of Fox News On the Line with Poll That Shows Jones Up by 10 - Breitbart

Fox News put its credibility on the line when it released a new poll on Monday that shows liberal Democrat Doug Jones leads conservative Republican Roy Moore by 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent, in tomorrow’s special election for the U.S. Senate in Alabama.
The contrast between the results reported by Fox News and every other recent major poll could not be sharper.

Earlier on Monday, an Emerson Poll was released that shows Moore up by nine points, 53 percent to 44 percent.

The five other most recent polls featured in the Real Clear Politics Average of Polls all show Moore in the lead.


The Fox News Poll released on Monday “was under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R),” and included a respondent sample of likely voters that included 44 percent Republicans, 42 percent Democrats, and 14 percent independents (Republican +2) (see political identification after question 7 here), which significantly oversamples Democrats.

One way to understand the actual voting behavior of Alabamians is to look at the results of the 2016 election in the state. President Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by a margin of 28 points, 63 percent to 35 percent.​

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Aha, the old "they oversampled democrats" line.

My favorite.

There's nothing better than people exposing their complete misunderstanding of how polling works.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Aha, the old "they oversampled democrats" line.

My favorite.

There's nothing better than people exposing their complete misunderstanding of how polling works.

Well why dont you libsplain it to me then, doc?

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Political polling is not weighted by party.

It would render the data meaningless if it was.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Political polling is not weighted by party.

It would render the data meaningless if it was.

So the demographic sampling in your opinion should ignore normalizing by voter turn out in the last election?

why?

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Aha, the old "they oversampled democrats" line.

My favorite.

There's nothing better than people exposing their complete misunderstanding of how polling works.

Well why dont you libsplain it to me then, doc?

Ok.

For polling to be accurate, it has to reflect the population of the whole. Which means the polling sample has to be selected randomly.

That number that you see - that's what those randomly selected people self-identify as.

Party identification has nothing to do with party registration (people lie) - and tend to reflect how the public is feeling about one party or another.

Because of that, samples can't be stratified by party - it would render the data meaningless. Which means if Democrats were "oversampled", it was pure random chance - and with the size of the sample, that would be incredibly unlikely.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Political polling is not weighted by party.

It would render the data meaningless if it was.

So the demographic sampling in your opinion should ignore normalizing by voter turn out in the last election?

why?

Because the poll isn't measuring whether people are going to go out and vote, it's measuring what their opinion is.

You're trying to force an entirely different metric in.

This isn't "my opinion". This is how it works.

 

[Pogo]

It is simple to see why as well; they over sampled Dimocrats, quite a bit.

Credibility of Fox News On the Line with Poll That Shows Jones Up by 10 - Breitbart

Fox News put its credibility on the line when it released a new poll on Monday that shows liberal Democrat Doug Jones leads conservative Republican Roy Moore by 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent, in tomorrow’s special election for the U.S. Senate in Alabama.
The contrast between the results reported by Fox News and every other recent major poll could not be sharper.

Earlier on Monday, an Emerson Poll was released that shows Moore up by nine points, 53 percent to 44 percent.

The five other most recent polls featured in the Real Clear Politics Average of Polls all show Moore in the lead.


The Fox News Poll released on Monday “was under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R),” and included a respondent sample of likely voters that included 44 percent Republicans, 42 percent Democrats, and 14 percent independents (Republican +2) (see political identification after question 7 here), which significantly oversamples Democrats.

One way to understand the actual voting behavior of Alabamians is to look at the results of the 2016 election in the state. President Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by a margin of 28 points, 63 percent to 35 percent.​

Did you just call Fox Noise's credibility into question ------ by citing Dimbart?

USMB is like a baseball game. The longer you keep watching the more likely you'll see something new.

 

[JimBowie1958]

Because of that, samples can't be stratified by party - it would render the data meaningless. Which means if Democrats were "oversampled", it was pure random chance - and with the size of the sample, that would be incredibly unlikely.

and yet all the major polling companies do use voter registration as part of their demographic sample normalization. There were huge debates about what the sample should reflect, etc.

And also the FOX poll is 19 points off from other polls.

So someone is effing up and it sounds like FOX to me.

Not everyone else is out of step but Johnny.

 

[theDoctorisIn]

Because of that, samples can't be stratified by party - it would render the data meaningless. Which means if Democrats were "oversampled", it was pure random chance - and with the size of the sample, that would be incredibly unlikely.

and yet all the major polling companies do use voter registration as part of their demographic sample normalization. There were huge debates about what the sample should reflect, etc.

This is not true. I don't know why you guys all keep repeating this. It's not true.

And also the FOX poll is 19 points off from other polls.

So someone is effing up and it sounds like FOX to me.

Not everyone else is out of step but Johnny.

Don't get me wrong, the FOX poll is an outlier. There's no question about it.

But it's not because they "oversampled democrats".

If you start to talk about "oversampling democrats" to any statistician, they'll laugh in your face.

 

[blackhawk]

The polling on this race has been all over the place in any event the only poll that really matters will be the one at the voting booth tomorrow.

 

[Pogo]

It is simple to see why as well; they over sampled Dimocrats, quite a bit.

Credibility of Fox News On the Line with Poll That Shows Jones Up by 10 - Breitbart

Fox News put its credibility on the line when it released a new poll on Monday that shows liberal Democrat Doug Jones leads conservative Republican Roy Moore by 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent, in tomorrow’s special election for the U.S. Senate in Alabama.
The contrast between the results reported by Fox News and every other recent major poll could not be sharper.

Earlier on Monday, an Emerson Poll was released that shows Moore up by nine points, 53 percent to 44 percent.

The five other most recent polls featured in the Real Clear Politics Average of Polls all show Moore in the lead.


The Fox News Poll released on Monday “was under the joint direction of Anderson Robbins Research (D) and Shaw & Company Research (R),” and included a respondent sample of likely voters that included 44 percent Republicans, 42 percent Democrats, and 14 percent independents (Republican +2) (see political identification after question 7 here), which significantly oversamples Democrats.

One way to understand the actual voting behavior of Alabamians is to look at the results of the 2016 election in the state. President Trump defeated Hillary Clinton by a margin of 28 points, 63 percent to 35 percent.​

^^^

​

Eloquent.