Fourth world diseases

Finding viruses and new medicines in the jungle...
:cool:
Hunting for the deadliest prey in the jungle: viruses
Thursday 30 August 2012 - We are on the brink of a new pandemic age, warns the Indiana Jones of pathogens. And what he finds in the wilderness could destroy our cities, he tells Mark Piesing.
For many, the dimly remembered panics over the bird-flu, swine-flu and Sars pandemics may now seem like a case of the authorities crying wolf, or even a conspiracy to boost the profits of Big Pharma. But to "virus hunter" Professor Nathan Wolfe, these viruses, which had all crossed over from wild animals, were merely the first gusts of a viral storm blowing out of the jungle and heading straight towards us. Last year, Professor Wolfe's work led to the creation of an embryonic early-warning network of "viral listening posts" across Africa and Asia. The network earned his not-for-profit Global Viral Forecasting Initiative (now renamed Global Viral) the label of the "CIA of the viral world" and its founder a place in Time magazine's top 100 most influential people of 2011.

His for-profit Global Viral Forecasting Inc has been renamed Metabiota. This year, his latest book, The Viral Storm: The Dawn of a New Pandemic Age, which was pubished last October, has been longlisted for the Royal Society's Winton Prize, won previously by the likes of Jared Diamond (author of Guns, Germs and Steel) and Stephen Hawking. "Up to now, we have been bullet dodging, but right now lurking in the jungle are viruses that, if they crossed over, have the capability to kill hundreds of millions of us," Professor Wolfe says. "And in a world where for the first time in history we can travel from the heart of the jungle to downtown London in little more than 24 hours there is an ever-increasing risk our luck is going to run out. "After all, despite all the efforts of the public health authorities, swine flu still infected 10 per cent of the world's population, and if it had been a little more deadly it could have easily killed millions."

However, for Professor Wolfe there is also hope as, along with "the wonderful precedent of earlier efforts of the campaign to eliminate smallpox", we now have "a whole load of tools that mean for the first time we can do something to prevent one of these hugely costly pandemics". Ultimately, he can imagine the possibility of a single global viral control room. Imagine Dr Strangelove's war room, but with the enemy being swarming viruses. Professor Wolfe was first made aware of the danger posed by the viral reservoirs carried around by wild animals – particularly in the jungle hotspots of Africa and Asia – as a field researcher in Cameroon and Uganda, where he witnessed the devastation wrought by Aids.

His own research on the many variations of the HIV virus in the villages he was monitoring showed just how big the viral reservoir was. He believes that, while humans and this viral reservoir have always been connected "through the catching and butchering of wild game", the further we have moved away from our origins as hunter-gatherers the more vulnerable we have become to viruses that we would once as a species have had immunity to. So the "accelerating interconnectivity of the modern world" has helped to create the potential for a viral storm because any virus that crosses over and which would have burnt out in a small population (victims either dying or developing immunity) "now has, in a world of six billion people, the potential to spread and spread, as people are the fuel of viruses".

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Hantavirus in Yosemite Nat'l Park...
:eek:
Yosemite hantavirus cases rise to six
Aug. 31,`12 (UPI) -- The number of people sickened by a rare hantavirus at Yosemite National Park has risen to six, including two fatalities, health officials say.
Officials of the California Department of Health announced the figures Thursday and confirmed a Pennsylvania man died from the disease, the Los Angeles Times reported.

A California man died earlier this month. The other four people were all from California. Park rangers have closed 91 cabins at the Curry Village camp site to which officials have traced the pathogen.

Park officials have sent letters or e-mail to about 2,900 people who stayed in the tent cabins June 10 to Aug. 24, alerting them to symptoms of the disease. Hantavirus is spread through droppings, saliva or urine of infected deer mice. Its flu-like symptoms take one to six weeks to show up.

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Yosemite warns tourists after virus kills two
31 Aug.`12 - US health authorities are warning tourists who visited California's famous Yosemite National Park recently to beware of a rare virus spread in mouse droppings, after two people died.
A second fatality was confirmed at the weekend from "hantavirus pulmonary syndrome" (HPS), while two more people who visited the spectacular California park in June are being closely monitored. The National Park Service wants to contact visitors who stayed in "Signature Tent Cabins" at Curry Village, an accommodation center in the vast park's Yosemite Valley tourist hub, since mid-June.

"These individuals are being informed of the recent cases and are being advised to seek immediate medical attention if they exhibit any symptoms of hantavirus," said an NPS statement. Hantavirus is a rare but serious disease and early medical attention is "critical" to limit its effect. It begins with fever and aches, but can progress rapidly to a life-threatening illness, said the NPS. HPS is caused by a virus that individuals get through contact with the urine, droppings or saliva of infected rodents, primarily deer mice.

Since the disease was first identified in 1993 there have been some 60 cases in California and 587 cases nationwide in the United States, around a third of which have been fatal. "The health of our visitors is our paramount concern and we are making every effort to notify and inform our visitors of any potential illness," said Don Neubacher, Yosemite National Park Superintendent. "Because people often don't get sick from hantavirus until one to six weeks after exposure, we are encouraging anyone who stayed in Curry Village since June to be aware of the symptoms of hantavirus and seek medical attention at the first sign of illness".

http://news.yahoo.com/yosemite-warns-tourists-virus-kills-two-211022770.html
 
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Granny catches mice in dem live traps - den drowns `em inna bucket o' water...
:badgrin:
Up to 10,000 Yosemite visitors at risk of mouse-borne virus
31 Aug.`12 – Up to 10,000 people who were guests in certain lodging cabins at Yosemite National Park might have been exposed to a deadly mouse-borne virus, park officials confirmed Friday as rangers handled a slew of calls from frightened visitors.
Park concessionaire Delaware North Co. sent letters and emails this week to nearly 3,000 people who reserved the insulated "Signature" cabins between June and August, warning them that they might have been exposed. The cabins hold up to four people, and park spokesman Scott Gediman said Friday that means up to 7,000 more visitors might have been exposed to the virus that so far has killed two people and sickened four others. Meanwhile, more than 1,000 calls a day are coming into Yosemite's new hantavirus hotline as visitors frightened about the growing outbreak of hantavirus pulmonary syndrome call seeking answers. "We're reaching out and they are reaching out to us, and we are trying in every way shape and form to be transparent and forthright," he said. "We want to tell people this is what we know. The most important thing is the safety of park visitors and employees."

On Thursday, the California Department of Public Health confirmed that a total of six people have contracted the disease at Yosemite, up from four suspected cases earlier in the week. Alerts sent to state and county public health agencies, as well as local doctors and hospitals, have turned up other suspected cases that have not yet been confirmed, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention."Additional suspected cases are being investigated from multiple health jurisdictions," the CDC said in an advisory issued to health care providers. The illness that begins as flu-like symptoms can take six weeks to incubate before rapid acute respiratory and organ failure. There is no cure, and anyone exhibiting the symptoms must be hospitalized. More than 36% of people who contract the rare illness will die from it.

All of the victims confirmed so far stayed in the high-end, insulated "Signature" tent cabins in the park's historic Curry Village section between mid-June and early July. Park officials worked quickly to disinfect all 400 of the Curry Village cabins when the outbreak first was detected earlier this month. When the outbreak was narrowed to the 91 double-walled insulated cabins, the California Department of Public Health ordered them shut down Tuesday. Park officials said the double-walled design of those particular cabins made it easy for mice to nest between the walls. The disease is carried in the feces, urine and saliva of deer mice and other rodents and carried on airborne aerosol particles and dust.

As the busy Labor Day weekend launches and word about the outbreak spread, some guests were canceling lodging reservations at the park. But Gediman says others on waiting lists for hard-to-get accommodations are snapping them up. The hantavirus outbreak occurred despite park officials' efforts to step up protections. A 2010 report from the state health department warned park officials that rodent inspection efforts should be increased after a visitor to the Tuolumne Meadows area of the park fell ill. The report revealed 18% of mice trapped for testing at various locations around the park were positive for hantavirus. "Inspections for rodent infestations and appropriate exclusion efforts, particularly for buildings where people sleep, should be enhanced," it said.

The park's new hantavirus policy, enacted April 25, was designed to provide a safe place, "free from recognized hazards that may cause serious physical harm or death." The 91 insulated, high-end canvas cabins in the century-old Curry Village are new to the park. They were constructed in 2009 to replace some that had been closed or damaged after parts of Curry Village, which sits below the 3,000-foot Glacier Point promontory, were determined to be in a rock-fall hazard zone. Upon taking them apart for cleaning, park employees found evidence of mouse nests in the insulation. The deer mice most prone to carrying the virus can squeeze through holes just one-quarter-inch in diameter. They are distinguished from solid-colored house mice by their white bellies and gray and brown bodies. In 2011, half of the 24 U.S. hantavirus cases ended in death. But since 1993, when the virus first was identified, the average death rate is 36%, according to the CDC.

Up to 10,000 Yosemite visitors at risk of mouse-borne virus
 
Granny says it one o' dem end time plagues - we all gonna die...
:eek:
Yosemite open despite virus that killed two
Mon, Sep 3, 2012 - The deadly virus raising fears at California's Yosemite National Park does not spread easily, and, despite two recent deaths, does not warrant closing the park, a spokeswoman said Monday.
So far, at least six cases have been confirmed of the hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS), a rare but serious illness that kills one in three victims and cannot be treated. "The hantavirus is contracted by breathing a particle from mice feces and mice urine," and is spread by the deer mouse, a rodent that lives in the Sierra Nevada mountain range, park spokeswoman Kari Cobb explained. "As long as individuals are staying in an area with good ventilation," and keeping watch for signs of mice in the area, "they should be fine," she told AFP. "You cannot contract the hantavirus if you're just walking around the park," she emphasized, adding that visitors need not wear a mask to avoid contagion. Cobbs said that while some canceled their reservations for the long holiday weekend ending with Labor Day on Monday, the gaps had been filled and overall the park was about as busy as usual. She did not give specific figures, but during an average weekend, Yosemite hosts around 7,500 tourists.

On Friday, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) warned that about 10,000 visitors could have been exposed to the deadly virus while staying at the park's scenic "Signature Tent Cabins." But park officials estimated just 3,000 people stayed in the lodgings between June 10 and August 24, when they could have run the risk of developing the disease within the next six weeks. They have all, including the international visitors, been notified of the risk of exposure, Cobbs said. The cabins, located in the popular lodging area of Curry Village in Yosemite Valley, the park's tourist center, were shut down last week. "The disease often progresses rapidly to respiratory distress, requiring supplemental oxygen and/or intubation, non-cardiogenic pulmonary edema and shock," the CDC said when it alerted the outbreak. "There is no specific treatment available, but early recognition and administration of supportive care greatly increase the chance of survival."

The French health ministry said Sunday that 53 French tourist families who stayed in the tents were being examined for signs of the illness. And Britain's Health Protection Agency said that about 100 British travelers may have been exposed, adding that it is working on getting in touch with them. A 2008 study by California's Public Health Department found that the virus can be found in about one in five of the deer mice in the state's forest service facilities.

A California microbiologist who befriended one of the people killed by the virus said that even if the transmission risk is low, the park should have warned visitors in advance. "If you can't get rid of the rodent problem completely and you can't get rid of the virus completely, the safety net includes educating visitors so if they do become ill, they can get to a hospital sooner," the scientist told a local ABC television affiliate. "That still doesn't guarantee that they'll live, but chances of survival are better if you get to a hospital sooner." Visitors now receive information leaflets upon entering Yosemite. Last week, California health officials said that a resident of the state and another person from Pennsylvania had died, while four others were sick, but recovering. Since the disease was identified in 1993, there have been 60 cases in California and 587 nationwide.

Yosemite open despite virus that killed two - Yahoo! News
 
Another death at Yosemirte...
:eek:
3rd hantavirus death linked to Yosemite outbreak
September 6, 2012 - A West Virginian is the third person to die so far from a rodent-borne illness linked to some tent cabins at Yosemite National Park that has now stricken eight people in all, health officials said Thursday.
Five people are ill from the outbreak reported last week by park officials, who said up to 10,000 guests could have been exposed to hantavirus pulmonary syndrome from sleeping in the cabins since June 10. More infections could be reported. Alerts from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention sent to public health agencies, doctors and hospitals have turned up other suspected cases that have not yet been confirmed. This week the European CDC and the World Health Organization issued global alerts for travelers to any country to avoid exposure to rodents.

Dr. Rahul Gupta, director of the Kanawha-Charleston Health Department, declined to release details of the West Virginia victim at a news conference. Gupta said the victim had visited the park since June but declined to be more specific, citing the family's wish to grieve in private. The other deaths occurred in California and Pennsylvania. Those that were sickened also were from California and the National Park Service said Wednesday they were either improving or recovering.

Seven of the cases involved guests at the insulated "Signature" cabins in the park's historic Curry Village section. The California Department of Public Health said the other case involved someone who stayed in several High Sierra Camps in a different area of Yosemite in July. Yosemite officials said the cabins have been closed and the park is reaching out to overnight guests who have stayed in the cabins. Gupta declined to elaborate on whether anyone was traveling with the Kanawha County victim, although he said his department knew of no other cases of hantavirus. "The time has lapsed in a way that it should not be a concern," Gupta said.

Health officials say the disease isn't spread from person to person. There is no cure for the virus, which can affect people of any age. The disease is carried in the feces, urine and saliva of deer mice and other rodents and carried on airborne particles and dust. People can be infected by inhaling the virus or by handling infected rodents. Infected people usually have flu-like symptoms including fever, shortness of breath, chills and muscle and body aches. The illness can take six weeks to incubate before rapid acute respiratory and organ failure. Anyone exhibiting the symptoms must be hospitalized. More than 36 percent of people who contract the rare illness will die from it.

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Anybody been campin' at Yosemite?
:confused:
Yosemite park hantavirus alert to 230,000 campers
13 September 2012 - Park officials have closed the cabins at Curry Village, linked to most of the cases
Yosemite park rangers have expanded a health advisory about a killer virus to nearly a quarter of a million people who have stayed there since June. The mouse-borne hantavirus is now known to have infected nine people - three of whom have died. There is no known cure. Officials at the California park insist their letters to more than 230,000 people are purely precautionary. Deer mice, which spread the infection, have increased in number and now the rodents are being trapped and killed.

Yosemite initially sent a warning last month to 1,700 campers who stayed at a specific campsite, before gradually expanding that figure as infections emerged elsewhere. Most of the cases involved guests at the Signature cabins in Curry Village, but one case involved someone who had stayed at multiple High Sierra camps in wilderness areas. A ninth person is now recovering after being stricken with the disease following a visit to Yosemite in early July, said National Park Service spokesman John Quinley on Thursday. It can take six weeks for the emergence of early symptoms such as aches and fever, or in half the cases headaches and sickness. It then moves into the lungs.

One third of cases are fatal, but identifying it early through blood tests increases a person's chance of survival. The hantavirus is carried in rodent faeces, urine and saliva. When it dries out and mixes with dust, it can be inhaled by humans, especially in small spaces. The first death was reported in August. One of those who died was a 37-year-old man from the San Francisco Bay area. The park saw two other cases of the hantavirus in a more remote area during 2000 and 2010, but this year's were the first known deaths.

BBC News - Yosemite park hantavirus alert to 230,000 campers
 
Granny says is one o' dem Biblical plagues like it says inna Old Testament in Zech. 14...
:eusa_eh:
New SARS-like virus detected in Middle East
Sep 24,`12 -- Global health officials are closely following a new respiratory virus related to SARS that is believed to have killed at least one person in Saudi Arabia and left another person in critical condition in Britain.
The germ is a coronavirus, from a family of viruses that cause the common cold as well as SARS, the severe acute respiratory syndrome that killed some 800 people, mostly in Asia, in a 2003 epidemic. In the latest case, British officials alerted the World Health Organization on Saturday of the new virus in a man who transferred from Qatar to be treated in London. He had recently traveled to Saudi Arabia and is now being treated in an intensive care unit after suffering kidney failure.

Health officials don't know yet whether the virus could spread as rapidly as SARS did or if it might kill as many people. "It's still (in the) very early days," said Gregory Hartl, a WHO spokesman. "At the moment, we have two sporadic cases and there are still a lot of holes to be filled in."

Hartl said it was unclear how the virus spreads. Coronaviruses are typically spread in the air but Hartl said scientists were considering the possibility that the patients were infected directly by animals. He said there was no evidence yet of any human-to-human transmission. "All possible avenues of infection are being explored right now," he said. So far there is no connection between the cases except for a history of travel in Saudi Arabia. SARS was first spread to humans from civet cats in China. Hartl said no other countries have so far reported any similar cases to WHO.

Other experts said it was unclear how dangerous the virus is. "We don't know if this is going to turn into another SARS or if it will disappear into nothing," said Michael Osterholm, a flu expert at the University of Minnesota. He said it was crucial to determine the ratio of severe to mild cases. SARS hit more than 30 countries worldwide after spreading from Hong Kong. Osterholm said it was worrying that at least one person with the disease had died. "You don't die from the common cold," he said. "This gives us reason to think it might be more like SARS," which killed about 10 percent of the people it infected.

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Sars-coronavirus kills two in Saudi Arabia...
:eusa_eh:
Second coronavirus death reported
23 November 2012 - The source of the virus is uncertain
A second person has died from a new respiratory illness similar to the Sars virus, according to the World Health Organization. The WHO said three fresh cases had also been reported bringing the total to six. All are linked to either Saudi Arabia or Qatar. However, one man has been transferred to the UK for treatment. Doctors say the virus does not appear to readily spread from person to person. Both reported deaths were in Saudi Arabia.

Coronaviruses are a group of viruses ranging from the common cold to the Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) virus. They infect a wide range of animals. In 2002 an outbreak of the Sars coronavirus killed about 800 people after it spread from Hong Kong to more than 30 countries around the world.

The WHO is still trying to work our where the infection came from. Studies show that the virus it is closely related to one found in some species of bats. It said in a statement: "Until more information is available, it is prudent to consider that the virus is likely more widely distributed than just the two countries which have identified cases."

BBC News - Second coronavirus death reported
 
Granny says it's one o' dem endtime plagues inna Bible...
:eusa_eh:
Fifth coronavirus death reported
30 November 2012 - A fifth person has died from a new respiratory illness similar to the Sars virus, according to the World Health Organization.
The WHO said the two latest deaths were in Jordan. The disease had previously been detected only in Saudi Arabia and Qatar, although one patient was transferred to the UK for treatment. It brings the total number of cases of the infection to nine. There may also be evidence of human to human spread of the virus. It causes pneumonia and sometimes kidney failure.

There was a series of severe cases of pneumonia in Jordan earlier in the year. However, the novel coronavirus had not been discovered at the time so did not appear in routine tests. Two of the deaths in April have now been confirmed as being part of the outbreak.

Sars-like

Coronaviruses are a group of viruses ranging from the common cold to the Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) virus. They infect a wide range of animals. In 2002 an outbreak of Sars killed about 800 people after the virus spread to more than 30 countries around the world. The WHO is still trying to work out where the infection came from. Studies show that the virus is closely related to one found in some species of bats.

How readily the virus spreads will be important for assessing how great a threat it poses. The WHO said that, unlike Sars, the new coronavirus, "does not appear to transmit easily between people". However, it warns that two clusters in Saudi Arabia and Jordan, "raise the possibility of limited human-to-human transmission" or they could have been exposed to the same source of the infection.

BBC News - Fifth coronavirus death reported

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Virus reported in Middle East, DOH issues warning
Sun, Nov 25, 2012 - Four new cases of acute respiratory infection by the “novel” coronavirus have been reported in the Middle East, as Taiwan’s Centers for Disease Control (CDC) of the Department of Health issued a warning to the public over the virus yesterday.
The new cases were reported to the WHO, which released the information on Friday. Three cases were reported in Saudi Arabia, where one patient has already died, while the fourth new case was in Qatar. According to the WHO, the new virus shares some of the symptoms of SARS, which also belongs to the coronavirus family. When SARS emerged in China in 2002, it killed about one-tenth of the 8,000 people it infected worldwide.

Scientists have not yet determined how contagious the new type of virus is, or how it spreads. CDC Officials said that the Saudi Arabia cases occurred in families living in close quarters, indicating that this new coronavirus likely infects humans via person-to-person transmission.

The CDC said measures are being implemented to enhance virus detection at Taiwan’s port-of-entry checkpoints, while urging those who plan to travel to Saudi Arabia or Qatar to take extra precautions regarding personal hygiene and to wash their hands frequently.

The CDC also urged citizens heading to these countries to avoid crowded places and stay away from enclosed spaces without adequate air circulation. If travelers who have recently returned from Saudi Arabia or Qatar experience signs of illness or respiratory disease, the CDC said they should immediately seek medical treatment.

Virus reported in Middle East, DOH issues warning - Taipei Times
 
Granny says its inna Bible in Revelation we all gonna die from the plagues...
:eek:
UK sees 10th case of mysterious, SARS-linked virus
Feb 11,`13 -- British officials have found the world's 10th known case of a new coronavirus, a mysterious disease related to SARS and first identified last year.
The patient, a U.K. resident who had been in the Middle East and Pakistan, is in the intensive care unit of a Manchester hospital, according to a statement Monday from Britain's Health Protection Agency. Coronaviruses are a family of viruses that are behind ailments including the common cold and SARS. SARS killed about 800 people in a global epidemic in 2003.

In past cases, patients with the new coronavirus had symptoms including acute breathing problems and kidney failure. There is no proof the virus spreads easily between humans, but experts suspect humans can catch it from animals such as bats or camels.

All the previous cases have had links to the Middle East, but last year, the World Health Organization said the virus was probably more widespread. It recommended countries test anyone with unexplained pneumonia for the virus.

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Second UK case of 'Sars-like' coronavirus identified
11 February 2013 - Scientists have sequenced the infection's full genome
A second case of a new respiratory illness similar to the deadly Sars virus has been identified in the UK. The patient, who is receiving intensive care treatment in a Manchester hospital, had recently travelled to the Middle East and Pakistan. Doctors insist the risk of the new coronavirus spreading to the general UK population is "extremely low" and the situation is being closely monitored. The total number of confirmed cases globally now stands at 10. The death toll is five - three patients treated in Saudi Arabia and two treated in Jordan.

Coronaviruses are a large family of viruses ranging from the common cold to the Sars (severe acute respiratory syndrome) virus, spread through droplets of body fluids produced by sneezing and coughing. In 2002 an outbreak of Sars killed about 800 people after the virus spread to more than 30 countries around the world. The new coronavirus was first identified in September 2012 in a patient in Saudi Arabia who has since died. Soon after, officials identified another case - this time in the UK. The 49-year-old man in question had been transferred to St Thomas' hospital in London by air ambulance from Qatar. Five months on, a second UK case has been found.

Prof John Watson, head of the respiratory diseases department at the Health Protection Agency (HPA), said: "The HPA is providing advice to healthcare workers to ensure the patient under investigation is being treated appropriately and that healthcare staff who are looking after the patient are protected. Contacts of the case are also being followed up to check on their health." No travel restrictions are in place. But Prof Watson said people who developed severe respiratory symptoms, such as shortness of breath, within 10 days of returning from the Arabian Peninsula and surrounding regions should seek medical advice and mention the countries they have visited.

BBC News - Second UK case of 'Sars-like' coronavirus identified
 
Granny keeps tellin' people to get away; she don't want `em givin' it to her...
:eusa_eh:
Coronavirus: Signs the new Sars-like virus can spread between people
13 February 2013 - Health officials in the UK believe they have the strongest evidence yet that a new respiratory illness similar to the deadly Sars virus can spread from person to person.
Cases of the infection may come from contact with animals. However, if the virus can spread between people it poses a much more serious threat. One man in the UK is thought to have caught the infection from his father. However, officials say the threat to the whole population remains very low. There have been 11 confirmed cases of the infection around the world. It causes pneumonia and sometimes kidney failure - five patients have died. This is the third case identified in the UK. The first was a patient flown in from Qatar for treatment. The second was linked to travel to the Middle East and Pakistan. The virus is then thought to have spread from the second patient to his son. There have been suggestions of person to person transmission in earlier cases in the Middle East, but this was not confirmed.

Susceptible

The third UK case is being treated in intensive care at the Queen Elizabeth Hospital in Birmingham. The patient is known to have an underlying health condition which left them with a weakened immune system. This may have made them susceptible to the infection. There have been no signs of the virus spreading to staff at the hospital.

Prof John Watson, head of the respiratory diseases department at the Health Protection Agency (HPA), said: "Confirmed novel coronavirus infection in a person without travel history to the Middle East suggests that person-to-person transmission has occurred, and that it occurred in the UK. "Although this case provides strong evidence for person to person transmission, the risk of infection in most circumstances is still considered to be very low." The exact source of the new virus and how it spreads is still unknown. The leading theory is that it comes from animals, the new Sars-like virus does appear to be closely related to bats. However, if the infection needs to jump from an animal to a person with each infection the threat would be much lower.

The World Health Organization reported cases from within the same family in Saudi Arabia in November 2012. It was impossible to tell whether each patient caught the infection separately - or if it had spread between them. A WHO spokesperson said: "We know that in some of those cases there was close physical contact between family members caring for one another, so we can't rule out human-to-human transmission." The two cases in the UK, with only one case linked to foreign travel, provide the strongest evidence that the infection can spread between people. The Health Protection Agency (HPA) said it was "overwhelmingly likely" human-to-human transmission had occurred. However, if the virus could readily and easily spread between people then far more cases than the 11 detected so far would have been detected.

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