Florida Primary: Who You Got?

[paulitician]

USMB/Florida Polls are now open. Vote for who you support or who you think will win. Either way is fine. Thanks.

 

[DiamondDave]

On who we support or who will win?? I'm assuming who will win is the basis of your poll

I think Romney squeaks it out over Newt in this one... with Paul a distant 3rd on his way to thankfully dropping out... and Santorum barely visible

 

[DiamondDave]

You know you're a nutter when you think Paul is going to win the FLA primary...

 

[uscitizen]

Jon Stewart.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

It's looking like Romney is going to win. The big question is what is the margin. If Romney wins over Newt by a margin larger than what Santorum got, then the game is up.

The only hope that there was of stopping Romney is for either Newt or Santorum to drop out and consolidate, though the longer this goes on the less likely that Santorum's nomination would move his crowd behind Newt. If we're at the point that Romney has a bigger base of support than the two combined, then Romney wins the nomination. Romney has a huge $$$$ advantage, and it's hard to peel votes off his base.

Paul will stay in. Even if he drops out, it wouldn't help anyone. Paul's supporters aren't going to line up behind Newt or Romney. Most will go third party if he drops right now. The longer Paul stays in, the more of Paul's base you get to keep in the GOP fold.

 

[paulitician]

Romney by a hair. But it's early.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Romney by a hair. But it's early.

The RCP average is Romney by about 15 points, which means that even if Santorum and Gingrich teamed up, they'd at best tie Romney. If that bears out, the game is up. The next few states coming up are all Romney friendly, which means he'll have a monstrous amount of momentum to back up the $$$$ he already has.

 

[Big Black Dog]

As much as I would like to see Newt win, I'm pretty sure that Romney will win in Florida. Maybe I will be surprised but I don't think so.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

As much as I would like to see Newt win, I'm pretty sure that Romney will win in Florida. Maybe I will be surprised but I don't think so.

I've thought a couple of times that Newt had the nomination sewn up, only to see him lose it again and again. It's looking like its just not to be this time for him.

He'll likely lose Florida and a LOT of momentum. If he can line up some serious cash donors he may be able to hold out to Super Tuesday and snake a win out from underneath Romney from there, but it's looking like a longer and longer shot.

 

[paulitician]

Romney pulling ahead. Plenty of time though.

 

[Lovebears65]

Since I have Jacksonville news I will say Romney will win this one.. Just going by what they are saying on the news and the people they interviewed

 

[GuyPinestra]

I think it's a foregone conclusion that Romney will win Florida.
I think after tonight Sanitorium will drop out.
I think Paul will get his 10% or so, without spending a dime there.
I think Gingrich will get a big boost come Super Tuesday, and Paul will come on in the caucus states.
I PRAY this goes to a brokered convention.

 

[Avatar4321]

I think Romney will win Florida. I hope Santorum does better than expected. I dont expect anyone to drop out due to Florida.

Anyone currently in is in till the end.

 

[Avatar4321]

I think it's a foregone conclusion that Romney will win Florida.
I think after tonight Sanitorium will drop out.
I think Paul will get his 10% or so, without spending a dime there.
I think Gingrich will get a big boost come Super Tuesday, and Paul will come on in the caucus states.
I PRAY this goes to a brokered convention.

Has Newt had success getting on the ballots for Super Tuesday?

 

[Avatar4321]

Romney pulling ahead. Plenty of time though.

Sure is. Anything can change on a dime. Especially with the insanity coming from this administration.

 

[Chris]

Romney bought 12,000 television ads to Newt's 210.

Welcome to the world of Citizens United.

 

[paulitician]

Looks like Romney's pulling away now.

 

[Chris]

So far, independent expenditure committees have spent more than $38 million on the Republican candidates, which is three times more than the 2008 candidates spent themselves over the entire 2008 primary season. Advertising by the actual candidates is down by 40 percent this cycle, but thanks to an astronomical 1,600 percent increase in spending by outside groups there are more campaign-oriented spots on TV and radio than there were four years ago. When you see or hear a campaign ad this year, the odds are nearly 50-50 that it's the handiwork of a super PAC. A telling example: The pro-Romney Restore Our Future super PAC fueled his pre-primary surge in Florida with a bombardment of 12,768 television commercials in the state, compared to just 210 by Gingrich.

How deep-pocketed super PACS became 'shadow campaigns' - The Week

 

[paulitician]

So far, independent expenditure committees have spent more than $38 million on the Republican candidates, which is three times more than the 2008 candidates spent themselves over the entire 2008 primary season. Advertising by the actual candidates is down by 40 percent this cycle, but thanks to an astronomical 1,600 percent increase in spending by outside groups there are more campaign-oriented spots on TV and radio than there were four years ago. When you see or hear a campaign ad this year, the odds are nearly 50-50 that it's the handiwork of a super PAC. A telling example: The pro-Romney Restore Our Future super PAC fueled his pre-primary surge in Florida with a bombardment of 12,768 television commercials in the state, compared to just 210 by Gingrich.

How deep-pocketed super PACS became 'shadow campaigns' - The Week

I take it you didn't vote for Romney. Who did you vote for?

 

[Amelia]

Romney bought 12,000 television ads to Newt's 210.

Welcome to the world of Citizens United.

Wish Citizens United had already been ruled on before 2008. Then the media couldn't have controlled what Americans learned about Obama.