F35 - superfighter or lame duck?

[Vrenn]

If the Russians (as some of thr

End results; US losses in Conus of about 85%, Russian losses at almost 95%. We go back to the 1800s while you go back to the stone age. Our factories are scattered across the nation while yours are in primary large clumps of population.

You forgot about China, India or even EU. All-out war between the USA and Russia will make them happy heirs of the whole world.

There will be NO Nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. It's doomsday scenario. And if you are trying to scare the sheep of the Party of the Rumpers, us old Military People know better. You fear it more than we do. If you don't, you should.

Sure, there will be nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. Especially if Administration don't believe it, too. It's how the detterence works.
And no, it's not doomsday scenario. First of all - a counter force strike. When more than 80% of the defenders nuclear forces are destroyed - postattack blackmail. Then - negotiations, or protracted war, or total annihilation of the unlucky defender. Yes, it will be a catastrophe, but, definitely not a doomsday.

I've seen the programmed results of the first strike from both sides and then the second attack (there is no 3rd attack possible). Both sides use the Triad where you have zero chance of taking all sides of the Triad out during the initial attack. And what good does it do attacking sites already launched? But you have no choice since the failure rate will leave some missiles in the silos that couldn't initially be fired but can be repaired very quickly. So that requires both sides to have reserve ICMBs. Sometimes by design sometimes by faults.

The damage won't be from just the blast areas. The Fallout will make you wished you were in the blast area. But think of this, the after affects cures the Global Warming since instead of the gradual temp increase, you get a very fast temp decrease. In the United States, it renders the Grain Belt to what the Canadian Farm Lands are today. But the southern regions get more rain and cooler temps and in a couple of years become the new Grain Belt. Mexico actually benefits from it. But Brazil and Argentina gets murdered by it.

But Russia doesn't have a northern Grain Belt. It has a southern grain belt, a small one and it loses the high production there while China gets one hell of a boost.

AS for Factories, China doesn't get that affected but their population will die from the crap in the air. So they will have to take measures for that. But the factory may be taken out just by not having enough resources and people to keep it open. The US will lose probably around 25% of our Factories but the rest will be left unharmed since our factories and industries are spread. Russia has their industries, like their population centers, clustered so they will lost closer to 85% of their Factories and Manufacturing ability and have almost a 95% civilian loss rate versus the US loss rate of less than 85%.

You think it's cold in Siberian now?

Only an insane Sillyvillian believes anyone can win a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US. The Entire world loses. Of course, it helps if you are already in the Stone Age, but move over, you are going to get a lot of visitors.

First of all, there is no choice between war and peace (from the Russian point of view) in your scenario. There is the choice between "uncontrolled escalation" (leading to a regional war and then to all-out nuclear war, may be at the moment choosen by the Americans), and "preemptive strike" (at the moment choosen by the Russians).
There are three main goals of any government in a war:
1) protect its citizens;
2) punish the enemy;
3) to win the war and the further peace.

Most important, of course, is the first goal. Therefore, the first strike must be counterforce one. And there are rather reliable ways to kill near 80% of the nuclear arsenal by the first sudden strike.
Also, there are ways to intercept warheads, cruise missiles and planes with bombs.
Then, there are ways to decrease consequences of the nuclear exchange. For example, Russia has Ukraine and the whole Europe to take food from.
Nobody cares about the world. Actually, there is no any working climate models, both "Global warming" and "Nuclear winter" are nothing but poor pseudoscientic speculations. Anyway, winner will have resources of the whole world to deal with any problems, and loser will be dead.
Fallouts may be a problem but not catastrophic. Both Russia and the USA have more than enough lands to evacuate people.

How many factories will survive in Russia and the USA depends on their ability to prevent "free raids" by strategic (and medium) bombers with nuclear CMs and bombs. And for this ability (returning to discussion about F-35) sides need big amount of relatively cheap fighters and interceptors with long range air-to-air missiles. China will sell to Russians J-16 (or, may be, J-20) with PL-21, and may be, will help them to restore production of Su-35, MiG-31, Su-57 with a number of different types of AAMs, and what will sell the EU to the USA? Eurofighters with "MBDA Meteor"?

in Russia-US direct nuclear war both will be losers, China will be a winner.
Thus the only realistic scenario is a war in 3d countries, most probably in Europe.
Ukraine, Eastern Europe as battleground with nuckear stikes against Western Europe, except France and UK.

I don't believe the US is eager to be nuked so no obligations to its NATO allies will be fulfilled.

Just invade a NATO country and find out. Putin is much more cautious on that one.

As I said, forces of NATO:Russia are 4,5-6-9 (I met different estimates) : 1

Obviously Russia is not going to invade NATO, it would be insane. Such fearmongering is nothing but Western propaganda to justify own agression.

everything is opposite, the US is building bases on Russian borders and it is NATO which is going to invade Russia if or when, as Washington hopes, Western sanctions lead to destabilisation of domestic situation in Russia or if/when US puppets like Georgia or Ukraine succeed in dragging Russia into a regional war.

in this case, if NATO prevails in the field with conventional weapons - Russia may use nukes first against Western forces, then against US bases in Eastern Europe, then against NATO European cities, and only the last phase is direct nuclear exchange with the US, if nothing of previous measures stops you.

And it's the policy of the US, if Russia or any other country uses even one Nuke, let the Nukes start flying. It ends up being the first and last option. And both sides know it. NO NUKES will be used by either side. Yah, I know, the 1980s plan by the Soviets were to nuke select targets in Europe but that plan is no longer sane. Ignite one Nuke on ANY Nato country and the big one happens.

Just read Russian military doctrine, the part about definitions.

Военная доктрина Российской Федерации

Новости, стенограммы, фото и видеозаписи, документы, подписанные Президентом России, информация о деятельности Администрации

www.kremlin.ru

---------------------
f) local war – a war between two or more states, pursuing limited military and political goals, in which military operations are conducted within the borders of the opposing states and which mainly affects the interests of only these states (territorial, economic, political and other);
g) regional war – a war involving two or more States of the same region, waged by national or coalition armed forces using both conventional and nuclear weapons, on the territory of the region with its adjacent waters and in the air (space) space above it, during which the parties will pursue important military and political goals;
h) large-scale war – a war between coalitions of states or the largest states of the world community, in which the parties will pursue radical military and political goals. A large-scale war can be the result of an escalation of an armed conflict, a local or regional war involving a significant number of States from different regions of the world. It will require the mobilization of all available material resources and spiritual forces of the participating States;
---------------------------------
The very definition of the term "Regional war" means limited usage of the nuclear weapon.

No it doesn't. By your definition of "Regional War" you would use Nukes against Ukraine when the start to kick your butts out of their country. And I give the Russian Military Leaders more credit than that.

By the Russian definition, Russia is not a side of the "Ukrainian Civil War" at all. But even when Russia will join this conflict, and, say, retake Kiev, it will be a "local war". It will be a "regional war" if other European (but not American) countries join this conflict, and then, Russia, highly likely, will use nukes.

Are you trying to make us all askeered of the teddy bear? Like I said, we don't have to fight Ukraines battles. They know how to fight. But we are obligated to get first line equipment into their hands along with training to do the fighting. And there are only two birds we won't send them and that will be the F-22 and F-35. But nothing stops us from sending in the latest F-18/16 and F-15EX which are more than a match for anything in quantity that Russia has to offer.

Keep that in mind, Ivan.

And if we do send in advisors and trainer make damn sure you don't harm a hair on their heads. You may not like the response.

lol, you Americans are too greedy to send anything to Ukraine which costs more than a hundred bucks

I don't want to get you scared, it is just my concern speaks in me that when you get your ass kicked you may start behaving even more inadequate than you do now
Nuclear war is a real possibility, Russia invests in nuclear weapons not to allow our defeat, one must think with his ass not to understand it and after discussions here I tend to think there is no such understanding in America.

I foresee your future screams when we take Kiev as a result of Ukrainian military adventures which the US encourages. Ukraine is moving heavy weapons to Donbass, without US direct approval or order they would not dare to start a war with Russia.

newsflash, Ivan. Ukraine doesn't need the USes permission to kick your sorry butts out of Ukraine. Sorry, but your buddy Rump ain't in office anymore. You'll have to groom another one and that takes years and decades.

 

[Siberian]

If the Russians (as some of thr

End results; US losses in Conus of about 85%, Russian losses at almost 95%. We go back to the 1800s while you go back to the stone age. Our factories are scattered across the nation while yours are in primary large clumps of population.

You forgot about China, India or even EU. All-out war between the USA and Russia will make them happy heirs of the whole world.

There will be NO Nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. It's doomsday scenario. And if you are trying to scare the sheep of the Party of the Rumpers, us old Military People know better. You fear it more than we do. If you don't, you should.

Sure, there will be nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. Especially if Administration don't believe it, too. It's how the detterence works.
And no, it's not doomsday scenario. First of all - a counter force strike. When more than 80% of the defenders nuclear forces are destroyed - postattack blackmail. Then - negotiations, or protracted war, or total annihilation of the unlucky defender. Yes, it will be a catastrophe, but, definitely not a doomsday.

I've seen the programmed results of the first strike from both sides and then the second attack (there is no 3rd attack possible). Both sides use the Triad where you have zero chance of taking all sides of the Triad out during the initial attack. And what good does it do attacking sites already launched? But you have no choice since the failure rate will leave some missiles in the silos that couldn't initially be fired but can be repaired very quickly. So that requires both sides to have reserve ICMBs. Sometimes by design sometimes by faults.

The damage won't be from just the blast areas. The Fallout will make you wished you were in the blast area. But think of this, the after affects cures the Global Warming since instead of the gradual temp increase, you get a very fast temp decrease. In the United States, it renders the Grain Belt to what the Canadian Farm Lands are today. But the southern regions get more rain and cooler temps and in a couple of years become the new Grain Belt. Mexico actually benefits from it. But Brazil and Argentina gets murdered by it.

But Russia doesn't have a northern Grain Belt. It has a southern grain belt, a small one and it loses the high production there while China gets one hell of a boost.

AS for Factories, China doesn't get that affected but their population will die from the crap in the air. So they will have to take measures for that. But the factory may be taken out just by not having enough resources and people to keep it open. The US will lose probably around 25% of our Factories but the rest will be left unharmed since our factories and industries are spread. Russia has their industries, like their population centers, clustered so they will lost closer to 85% of their Factories and Manufacturing ability and have almost a 95% civilian loss rate versus the US loss rate of less than 85%.

You think it's cold in Siberian now?

Only an insane Sillyvillian believes anyone can win a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US. The Entire world loses. Of course, it helps if you are already in the Stone Age, but move over, you are going to get a lot of visitors.

First of all, there is no choice between war and peace (from the Russian point of view) in your scenario. There is the choice between "uncontrolled escalation" (leading to a regional war and then to all-out nuclear war, may be at the moment choosen by the Americans), and "preemptive strike" (at the moment choosen by the Russians).
There are three main goals of any government in a war:
1) protect its citizens;
2) punish the enemy;
3) to win the war and the further peace.

Most important, of course, is the first goal. Therefore, the first strike must be counterforce one. And there are rather reliable ways to kill near 80% of the nuclear arsenal by the first sudden strike.
Also, there are ways to intercept warheads, cruise missiles and planes with bombs.
Then, there are ways to decrease consequences of the nuclear exchange. For example, Russia has Ukraine and the whole Europe to take food from.
Nobody cares about the world. Actually, there is no any working climate models, both "Global warming" and "Nuclear winter" are nothing but poor pseudoscientic speculations. Anyway, winner will have resources of the whole world to deal with any problems, and loser will be dead.
Fallouts may be a problem but not catastrophic. Both Russia and the USA have more than enough lands to evacuate people.

How many factories will survive in Russia and the USA depends on their ability to prevent "free raids" by strategic (and medium) bombers with nuclear CMs and bombs. And for this ability (returning to discussion about F-35) sides need big amount of relatively cheap fighters and interceptors with long range air-to-air missiles. China will sell to Russians J-16 (or, may be, J-20) with PL-21, and may be, will help them to restore production of Su-35, MiG-31, Su-57 with a number of different types of AAMs, and what will sell the EU to the USA? Eurofighters with "MBDA Meteor"?

in Russia-US direct nuclear war both will be losers, China will be a winner.
Thus the only realistic scenario is a war in 3d countries, most probably in Europe.
Ukraine, Eastern Europe as battleground with nuckear stikes against Western Europe, except France and UK.

I don't believe the US is eager to be nuked so no obligations to its NATO allies will be fulfilled.

Just invade a NATO country and find out. Putin is much more cautious on that one.

As I said, forces of NATO:Russia are 4,5-6-9 (I met different estimates) : 1

Obviously Russia is not going to invade NATO, it would be insane. Such fearmongering is nothing but Western propaganda to justify own agression.

everything is opposite, the US is building bases on Russian borders and it is NATO which is going to invade Russia if or when, as Washington hopes, Western sanctions lead to destabilisation of domestic situation in Russia or if/when US puppets like Georgia or Ukraine succeed in dragging Russia into a regional war.

in this case, if NATO prevails in the field with conventional weapons - Russia may use nukes first against Western forces, then against US bases in Eastern Europe, then against NATO European cities, and only the last phase is direct nuclear exchange with the US, if nothing of previous measures stops you.

And it's the policy of the US, if Russia or any other country uses even one Nuke, let the Nukes start flying. It ends up being the first and last option. And both sides know it. NO NUKES will be used by either side. Yah, I know, the 1980s plan by the Soviets were to nuke select targets in Europe but that plan is no longer sane. Ignite one Nuke on ANY Nato country and the big one happens.

Just read Russian military doctrine, the part about definitions.

Военная доктрина Российской Федерации

Новости, стенограммы, фото и видеозаписи, документы, подписанные Президентом России, информация о деятельности Администрации

www.kremlin.ru

---------------------
f) local war – a war between two or more states, pursuing limited military and political goals, in which military operations are conducted within the borders of the opposing states and which mainly affects the interests of only these states (territorial, economic, political and other);
g) regional war – a war involving two or more States of the same region, waged by national or coalition armed forces using both conventional and nuclear weapons, on the territory of the region with its adjacent waters and in the air (space) space above it, during which the parties will pursue important military and political goals;
h) large-scale war – a war between coalitions of states or the largest states of the world community, in which the parties will pursue radical military and political goals. A large-scale war can be the result of an escalation of an armed conflict, a local or regional war involving a significant number of States from different regions of the world. It will require the mobilization of all available material resources and spiritual forces of the participating States;
---------------------------------
The very definition of the term "Regional war" means limited usage of the nuclear weapon.

No it doesn't. By your definition of "Regional War" you would use Nukes against Ukraine when the start to kick your butts out of their country. And I give the Russian Military Leaders more credit than that.

By the Russian definition, Russia is not a side of the "Ukrainian Civil War" at all. But even when Russia will join this conflict, and, say, retake Kiev, it will be a "local war". It will be a "regional war" if other European (but not American) countries join this conflict, and then, Russia, highly likely, will use nukes.

Are you trying to make us all askeered of the teddy bear? Like I said, we don't have to fight Ukraines battles. They know how to fight. But we are obligated to get first line equipment into their hands along with training to do the fighting. And there are only two birds we won't send them and that will be the F-22 and F-35. But nothing stops us from sending in the latest F-18/16 and F-15EX which are more than a match for anything in quantity that Russia has to offer.

Keep that in mind, Ivan.

And if we do send in advisors and trainer make damn sure you don't harm a hair on their heads. You may not like the response.

lol, you Americans are too greedy to send anything to Ukraine which costs more than a hundred bucks

I don't want to get you scared, it is just my concern speaks in me that when you get your ass kicked you may start behaving even more inadequate than you do now
Nuclear war is a real possibility, Russia invests in nuclear weapons not to allow our defeat, one must think with his ass not to understand it and after discussions here I tend to think there is no such understanding in America.

I foresee your future screams when we take Kiev as a result of Ukrainian military adventures which the US encourages. Ukraine is moving heavy weapons to Donbass, without US direct approval or order they would not dare to start a war with Russia.

newsflash, Ivan. Ukraine doesn't need the USes permission to kick your sorry butts out of Ukraine. Sorry, but your buddy Rump ain't in office anymore. You'll have to groom another one and that takes years and decades.

No, sleepy Joe is absolutely fine
he can do more for collapse of the US than Brezhnev did for collapse of USSR
as aproverb says - every country has that leader which it deserves

You have 5-10 years till collapse of the US....



as for Ukraine, if left without 7/24 Russian governance if fails in everything. It's a failed state, and will disintegrate into becoming a Russian province...

 

[Dayton3]

The U.S. will destroy Russia eventually. Destroying most of their conventional military, eliminating their nuclear arsenal and seizing half their territory, permanently.

The U.S. becomes the largest nation on Earth thereafter.

It's the only way the world will know peace.

 

[Vrenn]

If the Russians (as some of thr

End results; US losses in Conus of about 85%, Russian losses at almost 95%. We go back to the 1800s while you go back to the stone age. Our factories are scattered across the nation while yours are in primary large clumps of population.

You forgot about China, India or even EU. All-out war between the USA and Russia will make them happy heirs of the whole world.

There will be NO Nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. It's doomsday scenario. And if you are trying to scare the sheep of the Party of the Rumpers, us old Military People know better. You fear it more than we do. If you don't, you should.

Sure, there will be nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. Especially if Administration don't believe it, too. It's how the detterence works.
And no, it's not doomsday scenario. First of all - a counter force strike. When more than 80% of the defenders nuclear forces are destroyed - postattack blackmail. Then - negotiations, or protracted war, or total annihilation of the unlucky defender. Yes, it will be a catastrophe, but, definitely not a doomsday.

I've seen the programmed results of the first strike from both sides and then the second attack (there is no 3rd attack possible). Both sides use the Triad where you have zero chance of taking all sides of the Triad out during the initial attack. And what good does it do attacking sites already launched? But you have no choice since the failure rate will leave some missiles in the silos that couldn't initially be fired but can be repaired very quickly. So that requires both sides to have reserve ICMBs. Sometimes by design sometimes by faults.

The damage won't be from just the blast areas. The Fallout will make you wished you were in the blast area. But think of this, the after affects cures the Global Warming since instead of the gradual temp increase, you get a very fast temp decrease. In the United States, it renders the Grain Belt to what the Canadian Farm Lands are today. But the southern regions get more rain and cooler temps and in a couple of years become the new Grain Belt. Mexico actually benefits from it. But Brazil and Argentina gets murdered by it.

But Russia doesn't have a northern Grain Belt. It has a southern grain belt, a small one and it loses the high production there while China gets one hell of a boost.

AS for Factories, China doesn't get that affected but their population will die from the crap in the air. So they will have to take measures for that. But the factory may be taken out just by not having enough resources and people to keep it open. The US will lose probably around 25% of our Factories but the rest will be left unharmed since our factories and industries are spread. Russia has their industries, like their population centers, clustered so they will lost closer to 85% of their Factories and Manufacturing ability and have almost a 95% civilian loss rate versus the US loss rate of less than 85%.

You think it's cold in Siberian now?

Only an insane Sillyvillian believes anyone can win a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US. The Entire world loses. Of course, it helps if you are already in the Stone Age, but move over, you are going to get a lot of visitors.

First of all, there is no choice between war and peace (from the Russian point of view) in your scenario. There is the choice between "uncontrolled escalation" (leading to a regional war and then to all-out nuclear war, may be at the moment choosen by the Americans), and "preemptive strike" (at the moment choosen by the Russians).
There are three main goals of any government in a war:
1) protect its citizens;
2) punish the enemy;
3) to win the war and the further peace.

Most important, of course, is the first goal. Therefore, the first strike must be counterforce one. And there are rather reliable ways to kill near 80% of the nuclear arsenal by the first sudden strike.
Also, there are ways to intercept warheads, cruise missiles and planes with bombs.
Then, there are ways to decrease consequences of the nuclear exchange. For example, Russia has Ukraine and the whole Europe to take food from.
Nobody cares about the world. Actually, there is no any working climate models, both "Global warming" and "Nuclear winter" are nothing but poor pseudoscientic speculations. Anyway, winner will have resources of the whole world to deal with any problems, and loser will be dead.
Fallouts may be a problem but not catastrophic. Both Russia and the USA have more than enough lands to evacuate people.

How many factories will survive in Russia and the USA depends on their ability to prevent "free raids" by strategic (and medium) bombers with nuclear CMs and bombs. And for this ability (returning to discussion about F-35) sides need big amount of relatively cheap fighters and interceptors with long range air-to-air missiles. China will sell to Russians J-16 (or, may be, J-20) with PL-21, and may be, will help them to restore production of Su-35, MiG-31, Su-57 with a number of different types of AAMs, and what will sell the EU to the USA? Eurofighters with "MBDA Meteor"?

in Russia-US direct nuclear war both will be losers, China will be a winner.
Thus the only realistic scenario is a war in 3d countries, most probably in Europe.
Ukraine, Eastern Europe as battleground with nuckear stikes against Western Europe, except France and UK.

I don't believe the US is eager to be nuked so no obligations to its NATO allies will be fulfilled.

Just invade a NATO country and find out. Putin is much more cautious on that one.

As I said, forces of NATO:Russia are 4,5-6-9 (I met different estimates) : 1

Obviously Russia is not going to invade NATO, it would be insane. Such fearmongering is nothing but Western propaganda to justify own agression.

everything is opposite, the US is building bases on Russian borders and it is NATO which is going to invade Russia if or when, as Washington hopes, Western sanctions lead to destabilisation of domestic situation in Russia or if/when US puppets like Georgia or Ukraine succeed in dragging Russia into a regional war.

in this case, if NATO prevails in the field with conventional weapons - Russia may use nukes first against Western forces, then against US bases in Eastern Europe, then against NATO European cities, and only the last phase is direct nuclear exchange with the US, if nothing of previous measures stops you.

And it's the policy of the US, if Russia or any other country uses even one Nuke, let the Nukes start flying. It ends up being the first and last option. And both sides know it. NO NUKES will be used by either side. Yah, I know, the 1980s plan by the Soviets were to nuke select targets in Europe but that plan is no longer sane. Ignite one Nuke on ANY Nato country and the big one happens.

Just read Russian military doctrine, the part about definitions.

Военная доктрина Российской Федерации

Новости, стенограммы, фото и видеозаписи, документы, подписанные Президентом России, информация о деятельности Администрации

www.kremlin.ru

---------------------
f) local war – a war between two or more states, pursuing limited military and political goals, in which military operations are conducted within the borders of the opposing states and which mainly affects the interests of only these states (territorial, economic, political and other);
g) regional war – a war involving two or more States of the same region, waged by national or coalition armed forces using both conventional and nuclear weapons, on the territory of the region with its adjacent waters and in the air (space) space above it, during which the parties will pursue important military and political goals;
h) large-scale war – a war between coalitions of states or the largest states of the world community, in which the parties will pursue radical military and political goals. A large-scale war can be the result of an escalation of an armed conflict, a local or regional war involving a significant number of States from different regions of the world. It will require the mobilization of all available material resources and spiritual forces of the participating States;
---------------------------------
The very definition of the term "Regional war" means limited usage of the nuclear weapon.

No it doesn't. By your definition of "Regional War" you would use Nukes against Ukraine when the start to kick your butts out of their country. And I give the Russian Military Leaders more credit than that.

By the Russian definition, Russia is not a side of the "Ukrainian Civil War" at all. But even when Russia will join this conflict, and, say, retake Kiev, it will be a "local war". It will be a "regional war" if other European (but not American) countries join this conflict, and then, Russia, highly likely, will use nukes.

Are you trying to make us all askeered of the teddy bear? Like I said, we don't have to fight Ukraines battles. They know how to fight. But we are obligated to get first line equipment into their hands along with training to do the fighting. And there are only two birds we won't send them and that will be the F-22 and F-35. But nothing stops us from sending in the latest F-18/16 and F-15EX which are more than a match for anything in quantity that Russia has to offer.

Keep that in mind, Ivan.

And if we do send in advisors and trainer make damn sure you don't harm a hair on their heads. You may not like the response.

lol, you Americans are too greedy to send anything to Ukraine which costs more than a hundred bucks

I don't want to get you scared, it is just my concern speaks in me that when you get your ass kicked you may start behaving even more inadequate than you do now
Nuclear war is a real possibility, Russia invests in nuclear weapons not to allow our defeat, one must think with his ass not to understand it and after discussions here I tend to think there is no such understanding in America.

I foresee your future screams when we take Kiev as a result of Ukrainian military adventures which the US encourages. Ukraine is moving heavy weapons to Donbass, without US direct approval or order they would not dare to start a war with Russia.

newsflash, Ivan. Ukraine doesn't need the USes permission to kick your sorry butts out of Ukraine. Sorry, but your buddy Rump ain't in office anymore. You'll have to groom another one and that takes years and decades.

No, sleepy Joe is absolutely fine
he can do more for collapse of the US than Brezhnev did for collapse of USSR
as aproverb says - every country has that leader which it deserves

You have 5-10 years till collapse of the US....



as for Ukraine, if left without 7/24 Russian governance if fails in everything. It's a failed state, and will disintegrate into becoming a Russian province...

And what does that have to do with the F-35? If you see F-35s over Ukraine, the game is on. Maybe Poland may bring theirs when they get them. The Balkan Nations can't afford for the Ukraine to fall to Russia. And it's pretty well known that some of the EU fighters will stack up against everything you Russians can throw at them. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the EU were to equip Ukraine with some of them. But if Poland does a defense agreement with Ukraine, they are next in procuring the F-35A along with the Aim120D and Aim9X. And Ukraine has at least one AWACs equal to the Russians. There are also NATO AWACs patroling the Ukrainian border as well. Sorry, no sneaky, sneaky attacks in the air. Remember, Russia only has 50 SU-35s in the inventory. Do if they wish to field a decent force, about 30 SU-35s are going to be usable. The bulk are going to be SU-30/33/27, Mig29s.

if Poland get's involved, it may include a few F-35As. And the US has a ton of F-15C/16Cs in storage that they would sell on the cheap. The US is taking many of the F-16Cs our of service that are perfectly good birds with the newest upgrades just short of the V. With the F-15EX coming online, there are going to be a bunch of F-15Cs and Es that could be had for a song and a dance for Ukraine. Ukraine has already stated they are switching to Western Fighters as quickly as they can.

Unfortunately, Ukraine has a dismal Military Air since 2014. But they have battle hardened and experienced pilots. What they lack are fighters. And that can be corrected in a matter of a year by the EU and the Balkan Nations and US Surplus.

 

[Silver Cat]

If the Russians (as some of thr

End results; US losses in Conus of about 85%, Russian losses at almost 95%. We go back to the 1800s while you go back to the stone age. Our factories are scattered across the nation while yours are in primary large clumps of population.

You forgot about China, India or even EU. All-out war between the USA and Russia will make them happy heirs of the whole world.

There will be NO Nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. It's doomsday scenario. And if you are trying to scare the sheep of the Party of the Rumpers, us old Military People know better. You fear it more than we do. If you don't, you should.

Sure, there will be nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. Especially if Administration don't believe it, too. It's how the detterence works.
And no, it's not doomsday scenario. First of all - a counter force strike. When more than 80% of the defenders nuclear forces are destroyed - postattack blackmail. Then - negotiations, or protracted war, or total annihilation of the unlucky defender. Yes, it will be a catastrophe, but, definitely not a doomsday.

I've seen the programmed results of the first strike from both sides and then the second attack (there is no 3rd attack possible). Both sides use the Triad where you have zero chance of taking all sides of the Triad out during the initial attack. And what good does it do attacking sites already launched? But you have no choice since the failure rate will leave some missiles in the silos that couldn't initially be fired but can be repaired very quickly. So that requires both sides to have reserve ICMBs. Sometimes by design sometimes by faults.

The damage won't be from just the blast areas. The Fallout will make you wished you were in the blast area. But think of this, the after affects cures the Global Warming since instead of the gradual temp increase, you get a very fast temp decrease. In the United States, it renders the Grain Belt to what the Canadian Farm Lands are today. But the southern regions get more rain and cooler temps and in a couple of years become the new Grain Belt. Mexico actually benefits from it. But Brazil and Argentina gets murdered by it.

But Russia doesn't have a northern Grain Belt. It has a southern grain belt, a small one and it loses the high production there while China gets one hell of a boost.

AS for Factories, China doesn't get that affected but their population will die from the crap in the air. So they will have to take measures for that. But the factory may be taken out just by not having enough resources and people to keep it open. The US will lose probably around 25% of our Factories but the rest will be left unharmed since our factories and industries are spread. Russia has their industries, like their population centers, clustered so they will lost closer to 85% of their Factories and Manufacturing ability and have almost a 95% civilian loss rate versus the US loss rate of less than 85%.

You think it's cold in Siberian now?

Only an insane Sillyvillian believes anyone can win a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US. The Entire world loses. Of course, it helps if you are already in the Stone Age, but move over, you are going to get a lot of visitors.

First of all, there is no choice between war and peace (from the Russian point of view) in your scenario. There is the choice between "uncontrolled escalation" (leading to a regional war and then to all-out nuclear war, may be at the moment choosen by the Americans), and "preemptive strike" (at the moment choosen by the Russians).
There are three main goals of any government in a war:
1) protect its citizens;
2) punish the enemy;
3) to win the war and the further peace.

Most important, of course, is the first goal. Therefore, the first strike must be counterforce one. And there are rather reliable ways to kill near 80% of the nuclear arsenal by the first sudden strike.
Also, there are ways to intercept warheads, cruise missiles and planes with bombs.
Then, there are ways to decrease consequences of the nuclear exchange. For example, Russia has Ukraine and the whole Europe to take food from.
Nobody cares about the world. Actually, there is no any working climate models, both "Global warming" and "Nuclear winter" are nothing but poor pseudoscientic speculations. Anyway, winner will have resources of the whole world to deal with any problems, and loser will be dead.
Fallouts may be a problem but not catastrophic. Both Russia and the USA have more than enough lands to evacuate people.

How many factories will survive in Russia and the USA depends on their ability to prevent "free raids" by strategic (and medium) bombers with nuclear CMs and bombs. And for this ability (returning to discussion about F-35) sides need big amount of relatively cheap fighters and interceptors with long range air-to-air missiles. China will sell to Russians J-16 (or, may be, J-20) with PL-21, and may be, will help them to restore production of Su-35, MiG-31, Su-57 with a number of different types of AAMs, and what will sell the EU to the USA? Eurofighters with "MBDA Meteor"?

in Russia-US direct nuclear war both will be losers, China will be a winner.
Thus the only realistic scenario is a war in 3d countries, most probably in Europe.
Ukraine, Eastern Europe as battleground with nuckear stikes against Western Europe, except France and UK.

I don't believe the US is eager to be nuked so no obligations to its NATO allies will be fulfilled.

Just invade a NATO country and find out. Putin is much more cautious on that one.

As I said, forces of NATO:Russia are 4,5-6-9 (I met different estimates) : 1

Obviously Russia is not going to invade NATO, it would be insane. Such fearmongering is nothing but Western propaganda to justify own agression.

everything is opposite, the US is building bases on Russian borders and it is NATO which is going to invade Russia if or when, as Washington hopes, Western sanctions lead to destabilisation of domestic situation in Russia or if/when US puppets like Georgia or Ukraine succeed in dragging Russia into a regional war.

in this case, if NATO prevails in the field with conventional weapons - Russia may use nukes first against Western forces, then against US bases in Eastern Europe, then against NATO European cities, and only the last phase is direct nuclear exchange with the US, if nothing of previous measures stops you.

And it's the policy of the US, if Russia or any other country uses even one Nuke, let the Nukes start flying. It ends up being the first and last option. And both sides know it. NO NUKES will be used by either side. Yah, I know, the 1980s plan by the Soviets were to nuke select targets in Europe but that plan is no longer sane. Ignite one Nuke on ANY Nato country and the big one happens.

Just read Russian military doctrine, the part about definitions.

Военная доктрина Российской Федерации

Новости, стенограммы, фото и видеозаписи, документы, подписанные Президентом России, информация о деятельности Администрации

www.kremlin.ru

---------------------
f) local war – a war between two or more states, pursuing limited military and political goals, in which military operations are conducted within the borders of the opposing states and which mainly affects the interests of only these states (territorial, economic, political and other);
g) regional war – a war involving two or more States of the same region, waged by national or coalition armed forces using both conventional and nuclear weapons, on the territory of the region with its adjacent waters and in the air (space) space above it, during which the parties will pursue important military and political goals;
h) large-scale war – a war between coalitions of states or the largest states of the world community, in which the parties will pursue radical military and political goals. A large-scale war can be the result of an escalation of an armed conflict, a local or regional war involving a significant number of States from different regions of the world. It will require the mobilization of all available material resources and spiritual forces of the participating States;
---------------------------------
The very definition of the term "Regional war" means limited usage of the nuclear weapon.

No it doesn't. By your definition of "Regional War" you would use Nukes against Ukraine when the start to kick your butts out of their country. And I give the Russian Military Leaders more credit than that.

By the Russian definition, Russia is not a side of the "Ukrainian Civil War" at all. But even when Russia will join this conflict, and, say, retake Kiev, it will be a "local war". It will be a "regional war" if other European (but not American) countries join this conflict, and then, Russia, highly likely, will use nukes.

Are you trying to make us all askeered of the teddy bear? Like I said, we don't have to fight Ukraines battles. They know how to fight. But we are obligated to get first line equipment into their hands along with training to do the fighting. And there are only two birds we won't send them and that will be the F-22 and F-35. But nothing stops us from sending in the latest F-18/16 and F-15EX which are more than a match for anything in quantity that Russia has to offer.

Keep that in mind, Ivan.

And if we do send in advisors and trainer make damn sure you don't harm a hair on their heads. You may not like the response.

lol, you Americans are too greedy to send anything to Ukraine which costs more than a hundred bucks

I don't want to get you scared, it is just my concern speaks in me that when you get your ass kicked you may start behaving even more inadequate than you do now
Nuclear war is a real possibility, Russia invests in nuclear weapons not to allow our defeat, one must think with his ass not to understand it and after discussions here I tend to think there is no such understanding in America.

I foresee your future screams when we take Kiev as a result of Ukrainian military adventures which the US encourages. Ukraine is moving heavy weapons to Donbass, without US direct approval or order they would not dare to start a war with Russia.

newsflash, Ivan. Ukraine doesn't need the USes permission to kick your sorry butts out of Ukraine. Sorry, but your buddy Rump ain't in office anymore. You'll have to groom another one and that takes years and decades.

No, sleepy Joe is absolutely fine
he can do more for collapse of the US than Brezhnev did for collapse of USSR
as aproverb says - every country has that leader which it deserves

You have 5-10 years till collapse of the US....



as for Ukraine, if left without 7/24 Russian governance if fails in everything. It's a failed state, and will disintegrate into becoming a Russian province...

And what does that have to do with the F-35? If you see F-35s over Ukraine, the game is on. Maybe Poland may bring theirs when they get them. The Balkan Nations can't afford for the Ukraine to fall to Russia. And it's pretty well known that some of the EU fighters will stack up against everything you Russians can throw at them. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the EU were to equip Ukraine with some of them. But if Poland does a defense agreement with Ukraine, they are next in procuring the F-35A along with the Aim120D and Aim9X. And Ukraine has at least one AWACs equal to the Russians. There are also NATO AWACs patroling the Ukrainian border as well. Sorry, no sneaky, sneaky attacks in the air. Remember, Russia only has 50 SU-35s in the inventory. Do if they wish to field a decent force, about 30 SU-35s are going to be usable. The bulk are going to be SU-30/33/27, Mig29s.

if Poland get's involved, it may include a few F-35As. And the US has a ton of F-15C/16Cs in storage that they would sell on the cheap. The US is taking many of the F-16Cs our of service that are perfectly good birds with the newest upgrades just short of the V. With the F-15EX coming online, there are going to be a bunch of F-15Cs and Es that could be had for a song and a dance for Ukraine. Ukraine has already stated they are switching to Western Fighters as quickly as they can.

Unfortunately, Ukraine has a dismal Military Air since 2014. But they have battle hardened and experienced pilots. What they lack are fighters. And that can be corrected in a matter of a year by the EU and the Balkan Nations and US Surplus.

If Poland get involved, it will take only 5 days to finish it's existence, according their own command stuff exercises.

"The war is lost in 5 days": the exercises of the Polish army "Winter-20" ended in complete failure

The Zima-20 command-staff exercises were held in Poland, but their results were extremely sad for the Polish military. Combat simulation even included new weapons systems ordered by Poland but not yet delivered, such as Patriot air defense systems, HIMARS MLRS and F-35 fighters, writes the Polish

en.topcor.ru

"The war is lost in 5 days": the exercises of the Polish army "Winter-20" ended in complete failure
February 2 2021

The Zima-20 command-staff exercise was held in Poland, but its results were extremely sad for the Polish military. The simulation of military operations even included new weapons systems ordered by Poland, but not yet delivered, such as Patriot air defense systems, MLRS HIMARS and F-35 fighters, writes the Polish portal Onet, citing a number of media outlets in their country.

According to the Polish Internet edition Interia, several thousand officers took part in the exercise. During the simulation, literally everything was taken into account. Even a reformed system of military command and control was used. But the exercises ended not only in complete failure, but in a gigantic disaster. The Polish Armed Forces were defeated in a very short time and ceased to exist.

The war is lost in 5 days

- stated in Interia.

The portal clarified that the fierce defense on the eastern front led to the defeat of military units and huge losses among the military personnel. On the fifth day the enemy reached the Vistula line, but Poland no longer had an army to defend it.

The battles for Warsaw were still going on, but the ports were already either blocked or captured by the enemy. The aviation and navy no longer existed as a branch of the armed forces. The ground forces lost 60-80 percent of their personnel. The exercise caused real confusion in the ranks of the military.

In turn, the Polish tabloid Super Express provided additional information, referring to its informants. Initially, the Polish Armed Forces planned to hold the defense for 22 days before the arrival of reinforcements in the form of forces of NATO allies. However, on the fourth day Warsaw was surrounded, and the enemy was advancing westward. Everything went completely wrong as planned by the Polish military leaders. Moreover, the commanders of some units were shocked by the assigned tasks and refused to complete them.

The head of state Andrzej Duda and the head of the military department Mariusz Blaszak were familiarized with the results of the exercises. At the same time, the office of the President of Poland and the Ministry of National Defense refused to comment on the above information, citing secrecy, the Polish media summed up.

 

[Dayton3]

If the Russians (as some of thr

End results; US losses in Conus of about 85%, Russian losses at almost 95%. We go back to the 1800s while you go back to the stone age. Our factories are scattered across the nation while yours are in primary large clumps of population.

You forgot about China, India or even EU. All-out war between the USA and Russia will make them happy heirs of the whole world.

There will be NO Nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. It's doomsday scenario. And if you are trying to scare the sheep of the Party of the Rumpers, us old Military People know better. You fear it more than we do. If you don't, you should.

Sure, there will be nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. Especially if Administration don't believe it, too. It's how the detterence works.
And no, it's not doomsday scenario. First of all - a counter force strike. When more than 80% of the defenders nuclear forces are destroyed - postattack blackmail. Then - negotiations, or protracted war, or total annihilation of the unlucky defender. Yes, it will be a catastrophe, but, definitely not a doomsday.

I've seen the programmed results of the first strike from both sides and then the second attack (there is no 3rd attack possible). Both sides use the Triad where you have zero chance of taking all sides of the Triad out during the initial attack. And what good does it do attacking sites already launched? But you have no choice since the failure rate will leave some missiles in the silos that couldn't initially be fired but can be repaired very quickly. So that requires both sides to have reserve ICMBs. Sometimes by design sometimes by faults.

The damage won't be from just the blast areas. The Fallout will make you wished you were in the blast area. But think of this, the after affects cures the Global Warming since instead of the gradual temp increase, you get a very fast temp decrease. In the United States, it renders the Grain Belt to what the Canadian Farm Lands are today. But the southern regions get more rain and cooler temps and in a couple of years become the new Grain Belt. Mexico actually benefits from it. But Brazil and Argentina gets murdered by it.

But Russia doesn't have a northern Grain Belt. It has a southern grain belt, a small one and it loses the high production there while China gets one hell of a boost.

AS for Factories, China doesn't get that affected but their population will die from the crap in the air. So they will have to take measures for that. But the factory may be taken out just by not having enough resources and people to keep it open. The US will lose probably around 25% of our Factories but the rest will be left unharmed since our factories and industries are spread. Russia has their industries, like their population centers, clustered so they will lost closer to 85% of their Factories and Manufacturing ability and have almost a 95% civilian loss rate versus the US loss rate of less than 85%.

You think it's cold in Siberian now?

Only an insane Sillyvillian believes anyone can win a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US. The Entire world loses. Of course, it helps if you are already in the Stone Age, but move over, you are going to get a lot of visitors.

First of all, there is no choice between war and peace (from the Russian point of view) in your scenario. There is the choice between "uncontrolled escalation" (leading to a regional war and then to all-out nuclear war, may be at the moment choosen by the Americans), and "preemptive strike" (at the moment choosen by the Russians).
There are three main goals of any government in a war:
1) protect its citizens;
2) punish the enemy;
3) to win the war and the further peace.

Most important, of course, is the first goal. Therefore, the first strike must be counterforce one. And there are rather reliable ways to kill near 80% of the nuclear arsenal by the first sudden strike.
Also, there are ways to intercept warheads, cruise missiles and planes with bombs.
Then, there are ways to decrease consequences of the nuclear exchange. For example, Russia has Ukraine and the whole Europe to take food from.
Nobody cares about the world. Actually, there is no any working climate models, both "Global warming" and "Nuclear winter" are nothing but poor pseudoscientic speculations. Anyway, winner will have resources of the whole world to deal with any problems, and loser will be dead.
Fallouts may be a problem but not catastrophic. Both Russia and the USA have more than enough lands to evacuate people.

How many factories will survive in Russia and the USA depends on their ability to prevent "free raids" by strategic (and medium) bombers with nuclear CMs and bombs. And for this ability (returning to discussion about F-35) sides need big amount of relatively cheap fighters and interceptors with long range air-to-air missiles. China will sell to Russians J-16 (or, may be, J-20) with PL-21, and may be, will help them to restore production of Su-35, MiG-31, Su-57 with a number of different types of AAMs, and what will sell the EU to the USA? Eurofighters with "MBDA Meteor"?

in Russia-US direct nuclear war both will be losers, China will be a winner.
Thus the only realistic scenario is a war in 3d countries, most probably in Europe.
Ukraine, Eastern Europe as battleground with nuckear stikes against Western Europe, except France and UK.

I don't believe the US is eager to be nuked so no obligations to its NATO allies will be fulfilled.

Just invade a NATO country and find out. Putin is much more cautious on that one.

As I said, forces of NATO:Russia are 4,5-6-9 (I met different estimates) : 1

Obviously Russia is not going to invade NATO, it would be insane. Such fearmongering is nothing but Western propaganda to justify own agression.

everything is opposite, the US is building bases on Russian borders and it is NATO which is going to invade Russia if or when, as Washington hopes, Western sanctions lead to destabilisation of domestic situation in Russia or if/when US puppets like Georgia or Ukraine succeed in dragging Russia into a regional war.

in this case, if NATO prevails in the field with conventional weapons - Russia may use nukes first against Western forces, then against US bases in Eastern Europe, then against NATO European cities, and only the last phase is direct nuclear exchange with the US, if nothing of previous measures stops you.

And it's the policy of the US, if Russia or any other country uses even one Nuke, let the Nukes start flying. It ends up being the first and last option. And both sides know it. NO NUKES will be used by either side. Yah, I know, the 1980s plan by the Soviets were to nuke select targets in Europe but that plan is no longer sane. Ignite one Nuke on ANY Nato country and the big one happens.

Just read Russian military doctrine, the part about definitions.

Военная доктрина Российской Федерации

Новости, стенограммы, фото и видеозаписи, документы, подписанные Президентом России, информация о деятельности Администрации

www.kremlin.ru

---------------------
f) local war – a war between two or more states, pursuing limited military and political goals, in which military operations are conducted within the borders of the opposing states and which mainly affects the interests of only these states (territorial, economic, political and other);
g) regional war – a war involving two or more States of the same region, waged by national or coalition armed forces using both conventional and nuclear weapons, on the territory of the region with its adjacent waters and in the air (space) space above it, during which the parties will pursue important military and political goals;
h) large-scale war – a war between coalitions of states or the largest states of the world community, in which the parties will pursue radical military and political goals. A large-scale war can be the result of an escalation of an armed conflict, a local or regional war involving a significant number of States from different regions of the world. It will require the mobilization of all available material resources and spiritual forces of the participating States;
---------------------------------
The very definition of the term "Regional war" means limited usage of the nuclear weapon.

No it doesn't. By your definition of "Regional War" you would use Nukes against Ukraine when the start to kick your butts out of their country. And I give the Russian Military Leaders more credit than that.

By the Russian definition, Russia is not a side of the "Ukrainian Civil War" at all. But even when Russia will join this conflict, and, say, retake Kiev, it will be a "local war". It will be a "regional war" if other European (but not American) countries join this conflict, and then, Russia, highly likely, will use nukes.

Are you trying to make us all askeered of the teddy bear? Like I said, we don't have to fight Ukraines battles. They know how to fight. But we are obligated to get first line equipment into their hands along with training to do the fighting. And there are only two birds we won't send them and that will be the F-22 and F-35. But nothing stops us from sending in the latest F-18/16 and F-15EX which are more than a match for anything in quantity that Russia has to offer.

Keep that in mind, Ivan.

And if we do send in advisors and trainer make damn sure you don't harm a hair on their heads. You may not like the response.

lol, you Americans are too greedy to send anything to Ukraine which costs more than a hundred bucks

I don't want to get you scared, it is just my concern speaks in me that when you get your ass kicked you may start behaving even more inadequate than you do now
Nuclear war is a real possibility, Russia invests in nuclear weapons not to allow our defeat, one must think with his ass not to understand it and after discussions here I tend to think there is no such understanding in America.

I foresee your future screams when we take Kiev as a result of Ukrainian military adventures which the US encourages. Ukraine is moving heavy weapons to Donbass, without US direct approval or order they would not dare to start a war with Russia.

newsflash, Ivan. Ukraine doesn't need the USes permission to kick your sorry butts out of Ukraine. Sorry, but your buddy Rump ain't in office anymore. You'll have to groom another one and that takes years and decades.

No, sleepy Joe is absolutely fine
he can do more for collapse of the US than Brezhnev did for collapse of USSR
as aproverb says - every country has that leader which it deserves

You have 5-10 years till collapse of the US....



as for Ukraine, if left without 7/24 Russian governance if fails in everything. It's a failed state, and will disintegrate into becoming a Russian province...

And what does that have to do with the F-35? If you see F-35s over Ukraine, the game is on. Maybe Poland may bring theirs when they get them. The Balkan Nations can't afford for the Ukraine to fall to Russia. And it's pretty well known that some of the EU fighters will stack up against everything you Russians can throw at them. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the EU were to equip Ukraine with some of them. But if Poland does a defense agreement with Ukraine, they are next in procuring the F-35A along with the Aim120D and Aim9X. And Ukraine has at least one AWACs equal to the Russians. There are also NATO AWACs patroling the Ukrainian border as well. Sorry, no sneaky, sneaky attacks in the air. Remember, Russia only has 50 SU-35s in the inventory. Do if they wish to field a decent force, about 30 SU-35s are going to be usable. The bulk are going to be SU-30/33/27, Mig29s.

if Poland get's involved, it may include a few F-35As. And the US has a ton of F-15C/16Cs in storage that they would sell on the cheap. The US is taking many of the F-16Cs our of service that are perfectly good birds with the newest upgrades just short of the V. With the F-15EX coming online, there are going to be a bunch of F-15Cs and Es that could be had for a song and a dance for Ukraine. Ukraine has already stated they are switching to Western Fighters as quickly as they can.

Unfortunately, Ukraine has a dismal Military Air since 2014. But they have battle hardened and experienced pilots. What they lack are fighters. And that can be corrected in a matter of a year by the EU and the Balkan Nations and US Surplus.

If Poland get involved, it will take only 5 days to finish it's existence, according their own command stuff exercises.

"The war is lost in 5 days": the exercises of the Polish army "Winter-20" ended in complete failure

The Zima-20 command-staff exercises were held in Poland, but their results were extremely sad for the Polish military. Combat simulation even included new weapons systems ordered by Poland but not yet delivered, such as Patriot air defense systems, HIMARS MLRS and F-35 fighters, writes the Polish

en.topcor.ru

"The war is lost in 5 days": the exercises of the Polish army "Winter-20" ended in complete failure
February 2 2021

The Zima-20 command-staff exercise was held in Poland, but its results were extremely sad for the Polish military. The simulation of military operations even included new weapons systems ordered by Poland, but not yet delivered, such as Patriot air defense systems, MLRS HIMARS and F-35 fighters, writes the Polish portal Onet, citing a number of media outlets in their country.

According to the Polish Internet edition Interia, several thousand officers took part in the exercise. During the simulation, literally everything was taken into account. Even a reformed system of military command and control was used. But the exercises ended not only in complete failure, but in a gigantic disaster. The Polish Armed Forces were defeated in a very short time and ceased to exist.

The war is lost in 5 days

- stated in Interia.

The portal clarified that the fierce defense on the eastern front led to the defeat of military units and huge losses among the military personnel. On the fifth day the enemy reached the Vistula line, but Poland no longer had an army to defend it.

The battles for Warsaw were still going on, but the ports were already either blocked or captured by the enemy. The aviation and navy no longer existed as a branch of the armed forces. The ground forces lost 60-80 percent of their personnel. The exercise caused real confusion in the ranks of the military.

In turn, the Polish tabloid Super Express provided additional information, referring to its informants. Initially, the Polish Armed Forces planned to hold the defense for 22 days before the arrival of reinforcements in the form of forces of NATO allies. However, on the fourth day Warsaw was surrounded, and the enemy was advancing westward. Everything went completely wrong as planned by the Polish military leaders. Moreover, the commanders of some units were shocked by the assigned tasks and refused to complete them.

The head of state Andrzej Duda and the head of the military department Mariusz Blaszak were familiarized with the results of the exercises. At the same time, the office of the President of Poland and the Ministry of National Defense refused to comment on the above information, citing secrecy, the Polish media summed up.

You miss the obvious.

What if substantial NATO forces are already in Poland when the war begins?

 

[Silver Cat]

If the Russians (as some of thr

End results; US losses in Conus of about 85%, Russian losses at almost 95%. We go back to the 1800s while you go back to the stone age. Our factories are scattered across the nation while yours are in primary large clumps of population.

You forgot about China, India or even EU. All-out war between the USA and Russia will make them happy heirs of the whole world.

There will be NO Nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. It's doomsday scenario. And if you are trying to scare the sheep of the Party of the Rumpers, us old Military People know better. You fear it more than we do. If you don't, you should.

Sure, there will be nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. Especially if Administration don't believe it, too. It's how the detterence works.
And no, it's not doomsday scenario. First of all - a counter force strike. When more than 80% of the defenders nuclear forces are destroyed - postattack blackmail. Then - negotiations, or protracted war, or total annihilation of the unlucky defender. Yes, it will be a catastrophe, but, definitely not a doomsday.

I've seen the programmed results of the first strike from both sides and then the second attack (there is no 3rd attack possible). Both sides use the Triad where you have zero chance of taking all sides of the Triad out during the initial attack. And what good does it do attacking sites already launched? But you have no choice since the failure rate will leave some missiles in the silos that couldn't initially be fired but can be repaired very quickly. So that requires both sides to have reserve ICMBs. Sometimes by design sometimes by faults.

The damage won't be from just the blast areas. The Fallout will make you wished you were in the blast area. But think of this, the after affects cures the Global Warming since instead of the gradual temp increase, you get a very fast temp decrease. In the United States, it renders the Grain Belt to what the Canadian Farm Lands are today. But the southern regions get more rain and cooler temps and in a couple of years become the new Grain Belt. Mexico actually benefits from it. But Brazil and Argentina gets murdered by it.

But Russia doesn't have a northern Grain Belt. It has a southern grain belt, a small one and it loses the high production there while China gets one hell of a boost.

AS for Factories, China doesn't get that affected but their population will die from the crap in the air. So they will have to take measures for that. But the factory may be taken out just by not having enough resources and people to keep it open. The US will lose probably around 25% of our Factories but the rest will be left unharmed since our factories and industries are spread. Russia has their industries, like their population centers, clustered so they will lost closer to 85% of their Factories and Manufacturing ability and have almost a 95% civilian loss rate versus the US loss rate of less than 85%.

You think it's cold in Siberian now?

Only an insane Sillyvillian believes anyone can win a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US. The Entire world loses. Of course, it helps if you are already in the Stone Age, but move over, you are going to get a lot of visitors.

First of all, there is no choice between war and peace (from the Russian point of view) in your scenario. There is the choice between "uncontrolled escalation" (leading to a regional war and then to all-out nuclear war, may be at the moment choosen by the Americans), and "preemptive strike" (at the moment choosen by the Russians).
There are three main goals of any government in a war:
1) protect its citizens;
2) punish the enemy;
3) to win the war and the further peace.

Most important, of course, is the first goal. Therefore, the first strike must be counterforce one. And there are rather reliable ways to kill near 80% of the nuclear arsenal by the first sudden strike.
Also, there are ways to intercept warheads, cruise missiles and planes with bombs.
Then, there are ways to decrease consequences of the nuclear exchange. For example, Russia has Ukraine and the whole Europe to take food from.
Nobody cares about the world. Actually, there is no any working climate models, both "Global warming" and "Nuclear winter" are nothing but poor pseudoscientic speculations. Anyway, winner will have resources of the whole world to deal with any problems, and loser will be dead.
Fallouts may be a problem but not catastrophic. Both Russia and the USA have more than enough lands to evacuate people.

How many factories will survive in Russia and the USA depends on their ability to prevent "free raids" by strategic (and medium) bombers with nuclear CMs and bombs. And for this ability (returning to discussion about F-35) sides need big amount of relatively cheap fighters and interceptors with long range air-to-air missiles. China will sell to Russians J-16 (or, may be, J-20) with PL-21, and may be, will help them to restore production of Su-35, MiG-31, Su-57 with a number of different types of AAMs, and what will sell the EU to the USA? Eurofighters with "MBDA Meteor"?

in Russia-US direct nuclear war both will be losers, China will be a winner.
Thus the only realistic scenario is a war in 3d countries, most probably in Europe.
Ukraine, Eastern Europe as battleground with nuckear stikes against Western Europe, except France and UK.

I don't believe the US is eager to be nuked so no obligations to its NATO allies will be fulfilled.

Just invade a NATO country and find out. Putin is much more cautious on that one.

As I said, forces of NATO:Russia are 4,5-6-9 (I met different estimates) : 1

Obviously Russia is not going to invade NATO, it would be insane. Such fearmongering is nothing but Western propaganda to justify own agression.

everything is opposite, the US is building bases on Russian borders and it is NATO which is going to invade Russia if or when, as Washington hopes, Western sanctions lead to destabilisation of domestic situation in Russia or if/when US puppets like Georgia or Ukraine succeed in dragging Russia into a regional war.

in this case, if NATO prevails in the field with conventional weapons - Russia may use nukes first against Western forces, then against US bases in Eastern Europe, then against NATO European cities, and only the last phase is direct nuclear exchange with the US, if nothing of previous measures stops you.

And it's the policy of the US, if Russia or any other country uses even one Nuke, let the Nukes start flying. It ends up being the first and last option. And both sides know it. NO NUKES will be used by either side. Yah, I know, the 1980s plan by the Soviets were to nuke select targets in Europe but that plan is no longer sane. Ignite one Nuke on ANY Nato country and the big one happens.

Just read Russian military doctrine, the part about definitions.

Военная доктрина Российской Федерации

Новости, стенограммы, фото и видеозаписи, документы, подписанные Президентом России, информация о деятельности Администрации

www.kremlin.ru

---------------------
f) local war – a war between two or more states, pursuing limited military and political goals, in which military operations are conducted within the borders of the opposing states and which mainly affects the interests of only these states (territorial, economic, political and other);
g) regional war – a war involving two or more States of the same region, waged by national or coalition armed forces using both conventional and nuclear weapons, on the territory of the region with its adjacent waters and in the air (space) space above it, during which the parties will pursue important military and political goals;
h) large-scale war – a war between coalitions of states or the largest states of the world community, in which the parties will pursue radical military and political goals. A large-scale war can be the result of an escalation of an armed conflict, a local or regional war involving a significant number of States from different regions of the world. It will require the mobilization of all available material resources and spiritual forces of the participating States;
---------------------------------
The very definition of the term "Regional war" means limited usage of the nuclear weapon.

No it doesn't. By your definition of "Regional War" you would use Nukes against Ukraine when the start to kick your butts out of their country. And I give the Russian Military Leaders more credit than that.

By the Russian definition, Russia is not a side of the "Ukrainian Civil War" at all. But even when Russia will join this conflict, and, say, retake Kiev, it will be a "local war". It will be a "regional war" if other European (but not American) countries join this conflict, and then, Russia, highly likely, will use nukes.

Are you trying to make us all askeered of the teddy bear? Like I said, we don't have to fight Ukraines battles. They know how to fight. But we are obligated to get first line equipment into their hands along with training to do the fighting. And there are only two birds we won't send them and that will be the F-22 and F-35. But nothing stops us from sending in the latest F-18/16 and F-15EX which are more than a match for anything in quantity that Russia has to offer.

Keep that in mind, Ivan.

And if we do send in advisors and trainer make damn sure you don't harm a hair on their heads. You may not like the response.

lol, you Americans are too greedy to send anything to Ukraine which costs more than a hundred bucks

I don't want to get you scared, it is just my concern speaks in me that when you get your ass kicked you may start behaving even more inadequate than you do now
Nuclear war is a real possibility, Russia invests in nuclear weapons not to allow our defeat, one must think with his ass not to understand it and after discussions here I tend to think there is no such understanding in America.

I foresee your future screams when we take Kiev as a result of Ukrainian military adventures which the US encourages. Ukraine is moving heavy weapons to Donbass, without US direct approval or order they would not dare to start a war with Russia.

newsflash, Ivan. Ukraine doesn't need the USes permission to kick your sorry butts out of Ukraine. Sorry, but your buddy Rump ain't in office anymore. You'll have to groom another one and that takes years and decades.

No, sleepy Joe is absolutely fine
he can do more for collapse of the US than Brezhnev did for collapse of USSR
as aproverb says - every country has that leader which it deserves

You have 5-10 years till collapse of the US....



as for Ukraine, if left without 7/24 Russian governance if fails in everything. It's a failed state, and will disintegrate into becoming a Russian province...

And what does that have to do with the F-35? If you see F-35s over Ukraine, the game is on. Maybe Poland may bring theirs when they get them. The Balkan Nations can't afford for the Ukraine to fall to Russia. And it's pretty well known that some of the EU fighters will stack up against everything you Russians can throw at them. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the EU were to equip Ukraine with some of them. But if Poland does a defense agreement with Ukraine, they are next in procuring the F-35A along with the Aim120D and Aim9X. And Ukraine has at least one AWACs equal to the Russians. There are also NATO AWACs patroling the Ukrainian border as well. Sorry, no sneaky, sneaky attacks in the air. Remember, Russia only has 50 SU-35s in the inventory. Do if they wish to field a decent force, about 30 SU-35s are going to be usable. The bulk are going to be SU-30/33/27, Mig29s.

if Poland get's involved, it may include a few F-35As. And the US has a ton of F-15C/16Cs in storage that they would sell on the cheap. The US is taking many of the F-16Cs our of service that are perfectly good birds with the newest upgrades just short of the V. With the F-15EX coming online, there are going to be a bunch of F-15Cs and Es that could be had for a song and a dance for Ukraine. Ukraine has already stated they are switching to Western Fighters as quickly as they can.

Unfortunately, Ukraine has a dismal Military Air since 2014. But they have battle hardened and experienced pilots. What they lack are fighters. And that can be corrected in a matter of a year by the EU and the Balkan Nations and US Surplus.

First. Ukraine don't have any AWACS - neither A-50, nor A-100. The most close thing they have is An-30.
---------------

Antonov An-30 - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

The Antonov An-30 (NATO reporting name: Clank), is a development of the An-24 designed for aerial cartography.
------------

Second. Neither Ukraine, nor Ukraine-Polish-Baltic-Balcan alliance (in a local war), nor the whole hypothetical EU Army (in a regional war) are able to defeat Russia. Only the USA (in large-scale war) have a chance to do it.
Third. To defeat Russia, or be able to use Detterence Type II (against extremal Russian provication), the USA need to have the Credible First Strike Capability. It is not only about possibility to harm them. It is more about possibility to face Russian retaliation strike. And, to be able to face Russian retaliation strike and to prevent "free rides" of the Russian bombers (and therefore - postattack blackmail) - the USA need many relatively cheap fighters and interceptors with long range AAMs (better - with both nuclear and conventional warheads) and it is obviously not F-35.

 

[Silver Cat]

If the Russians (as some of thr

End results; US losses in Conus of about 85%, Russian losses at almost 95%. We go back to the 1800s while you go back to the stone age. Our factories are scattered across the nation while yours are in primary large clumps of population.

You forgot about China, India or even EU. All-out war between the USA and Russia will make them happy heirs of the whole world.

There will be NO Nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. It's doomsday scenario. And if you are trying to scare the sheep of the Party of the Rumpers, us old Military People know better. You fear it more than we do. If you don't, you should.

Sure, there will be nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. Especially if Administration don't believe it, too. It's how the detterence works.
And no, it's not doomsday scenario. First of all - a counter force strike. When more than 80% of the defenders nuclear forces are destroyed - postattack blackmail. Then - negotiations, or protracted war, or total annihilation of the unlucky defender. Yes, it will be a catastrophe, but, definitely not a doomsday.

I've seen the programmed results of the first strike from both sides and then the second attack (there is no 3rd attack possible). Both sides use the Triad where you have zero chance of taking all sides of the Triad out during the initial attack. And what good does it do attacking sites already launched? But you have no choice since the failure rate will leave some missiles in the silos that couldn't initially be fired but can be repaired very quickly. So that requires both sides to have reserve ICMBs. Sometimes by design sometimes by faults.

The damage won't be from just the blast areas. The Fallout will make you wished you were in the blast area. But think of this, the after affects cures the Global Warming since instead of the gradual temp increase, you get a very fast temp decrease. In the United States, it renders the Grain Belt to what the Canadian Farm Lands are today. But the southern regions get more rain and cooler temps and in a couple of years become the new Grain Belt. Mexico actually benefits from it. But Brazil and Argentina gets murdered by it.

But Russia doesn't have a northern Grain Belt. It has a southern grain belt, a small one and it loses the high production there while China gets one hell of a boost.

AS for Factories, China doesn't get that affected but their population will die from the crap in the air. So they will have to take measures for that. But the factory may be taken out just by not having enough resources and people to keep it open. The US will lose probably around 25% of our Factories but the rest will be left unharmed since our factories and industries are spread. Russia has their industries, like their population centers, clustered so they will lost closer to 85% of their Factories and Manufacturing ability and have almost a 95% civilian loss rate versus the US loss rate of less than 85%.

You think it's cold in Siberian now?

Only an insane Sillyvillian believes anyone can win a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US. The Entire world loses. Of course, it helps if you are already in the Stone Age, but move over, you are going to get a lot of visitors.

First of all, there is no choice between war and peace (from the Russian point of view) in your scenario. There is the choice between "uncontrolled escalation" (leading to a regional war and then to all-out nuclear war, may be at the moment choosen by the Americans), and "preemptive strike" (at the moment choosen by the Russians).
There are three main goals of any government in a war:
1) protect its citizens;
2) punish the enemy;
3) to win the war and the further peace.

Most important, of course, is the first goal. Therefore, the first strike must be counterforce one. And there are rather reliable ways to kill near 80% of the nuclear arsenal by the first sudden strike.
Also, there are ways to intercept warheads, cruise missiles and planes with bombs.
Then, there are ways to decrease consequences of the nuclear exchange. For example, Russia has Ukraine and the whole Europe to take food from.
Nobody cares about the world. Actually, there is no any working climate models, both "Global warming" and "Nuclear winter" are nothing but poor pseudoscientic speculations. Anyway, winner will have resources of the whole world to deal with any problems, and loser will be dead.
Fallouts may be a problem but not catastrophic. Both Russia and the USA have more than enough lands to evacuate people.

How many factories will survive in Russia and the USA depends on their ability to prevent "free raids" by strategic (and medium) bombers with nuclear CMs and bombs. And for this ability (returning to discussion about F-35) sides need big amount of relatively cheap fighters and interceptors with long range air-to-air missiles. China will sell to Russians J-16 (or, may be, J-20) with PL-21, and may be, will help them to restore production of Su-35, MiG-31, Su-57 with a number of different types of AAMs, and what will sell the EU to the USA? Eurofighters with "MBDA Meteor"?

in Russia-US direct nuclear war both will be losers, China will be a winner.
Thus the only realistic scenario is a war in 3d countries, most probably in Europe.
Ukraine, Eastern Europe as battleground with nuckear stikes against Western Europe, except France and UK.

I don't believe the US is eager to be nuked so no obligations to its NATO allies will be fulfilled.

Just invade a NATO country and find out. Putin is much more cautious on that one.

As I said, forces of NATO:Russia are 4,5-6-9 (I met different estimates) : 1

Obviously Russia is not going to invade NATO, it would be insane. Such fearmongering is nothing but Western propaganda to justify own agression.

everything is opposite, the US is building bases on Russian borders and it is NATO which is going to invade Russia if or when, as Washington hopes, Western sanctions lead to destabilisation of domestic situation in Russia or if/when US puppets like Georgia or Ukraine succeed in dragging Russia into a regional war.

in this case, if NATO prevails in the field with conventional weapons - Russia may use nukes first against Western forces, then against US bases in Eastern Europe, then against NATO European cities, and only the last phase is direct nuclear exchange with the US, if nothing of previous measures stops you.

And it's the policy of the US, if Russia or any other country uses even one Nuke, let the Nukes start flying. It ends up being the first and last option. And both sides know it. NO NUKES will be used by either side. Yah, I know, the 1980s plan by the Soviets were to nuke select targets in Europe but that plan is no longer sane. Ignite one Nuke on ANY Nato country and the big one happens.

Just read Russian military doctrine, the part about definitions.

Военная доктрина Российской Федерации

Новости, стенограммы, фото и видеозаписи, документы, подписанные Президентом России, информация о деятельности Администрации

www.kremlin.ru

---------------------
f) local war – a war between two or more states, pursuing limited military and political goals, in which military operations are conducted within the borders of the opposing states and which mainly affects the interests of only these states (territorial, economic, political and other);
g) regional war – a war involving two or more States of the same region, waged by national or coalition armed forces using both conventional and nuclear weapons, on the territory of the region with its adjacent waters and in the air (space) space above it, during which the parties will pursue important military and political goals;
h) large-scale war – a war between coalitions of states or the largest states of the world community, in which the parties will pursue radical military and political goals. A large-scale war can be the result of an escalation of an armed conflict, a local or regional war involving a significant number of States from different regions of the world. It will require the mobilization of all available material resources and spiritual forces of the participating States;
---------------------------------
The very definition of the term "Regional war" means limited usage of the nuclear weapon.

No it doesn't. By your definition of "Regional War" you would use Nukes against Ukraine when the start to kick your butts out of their country. And I give the Russian Military Leaders more credit than that.

By the Russian definition, Russia is not a side of the "Ukrainian Civil War" at all. But even when Russia will join this conflict, and, say, retake Kiev, it will be a "local war". It will be a "regional war" if other European (but not American) countries join this conflict, and then, Russia, highly likely, will use nukes.

Are you trying to make us all askeered of the teddy bear? Like I said, we don't have to fight Ukraines battles. They know how to fight. But we are obligated to get first line equipment into their hands along with training to do the fighting. And there are only two birds we won't send them and that will be the F-22 and F-35. But nothing stops us from sending in the latest F-18/16 and F-15EX which are more than a match for anything in quantity that Russia has to offer.

Keep that in mind, Ivan.

And if we do send in advisors and trainer make damn sure you don't harm a hair on their heads. You may not like the response.

lol, you Americans are too greedy to send anything to Ukraine which costs more than a hundred bucks

I don't want to get you scared, it is just my concern speaks in me that when you get your ass kicked you may start behaving even more inadequate than you do now
Nuclear war is a real possibility, Russia invests in nuclear weapons not to allow our defeat, one must think with his ass not to understand it and after discussions here I tend to think there is no such understanding in America.

I foresee your future screams when we take Kiev as a result of Ukrainian military adventures which the US encourages. Ukraine is moving heavy weapons to Donbass, without US direct approval or order they would not dare to start a war with Russia.

newsflash, Ivan. Ukraine doesn't need the USes permission to kick your sorry butts out of Ukraine. Sorry, but your buddy Rump ain't in office anymore. You'll have to groom another one and that takes years and decades.

No, sleepy Joe is absolutely fine
he can do more for collapse of the US than Brezhnev did for collapse of USSR
as aproverb says - every country has that leader which it deserves

You have 5-10 years till collapse of the US....



as for Ukraine, if left without 7/24 Russian governance if fails in everything. It's a failed state, and will disintegrate into becoming a Russian province...

And what does that have to do with the F-35? If you see F-35s over Ukraine, the game is on. Maybe Poland may bring theirs when they get them. The Balkan Nations can't afford for the Ukraine to fall to Russia. And it's pretty well known that some of the EU fighters will stack up against everything you Russians can throw at them. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the EU were to equip Ukraine with some of them. But if Poland does a defense agreement with Ukraine, they are next in procuring the F-35A along with the Aim120D and Aim9X. And Ukraine has at least one AWACs equal to the Russians. There are also NATO AWACs patroling the Ukrainian border as well. Sorry, no sneaky, sneaky attacks in the air. Remember, Russia only has 50 SU-35s in the inventory. Do if they wish to field a decent force, about 30 SU-35s are going to be usable. The bulk are going to be SU-30/33/27, Mig29s.

if Poland get's involved, it may include a few F-35As. And the US has a ton of F-15C/16Cs in storage that they would sell on the cheap. The US is taking many of the F-16Cs our of service that are perfectly good birds with the newest upgrades just short of the V. With the F-15EX coming online, there are going to be a bunch of F-15Cs and Es that could be had for a song and a dance for Ukraine. Ukraine has already stated they are switching to Western Fighters as quickly as they can.

Unfortunately, Ukraine has a dismal Military Air since 2014. But they have battle hardened and experienced pilots. What they lack are fighters. And that can be corrected in a matter of a year by the EU and the Balkan Nations and US Surplus.

If Poland get involved, it will take only 5 days to finish it's existence, according their own command stuff exercises.

"The war is lost in 5 days": the exercises of the Polish army "Winter-20" ended in complete failure

The Zima-20 command-staff exercises were held in Poland, but their results were extremely sad for the Polish military. Combat simulation even included new weapons systems ordered by Poland but not yet delivered, such as Patriot air defense systems, HIMARS MLRS and F-35 fighters, writes the Polish

en.topcor.ru

"The war is lost in 5 days": the exercises of the Polish army "Winter-20" ended in complete failure
February 2 2021

The Zima-20 command-staff exercise was held in Poland, but its results were extremely sad for the Polish military. The simulation of military operations even included new weapons systems ordered by Poland, but not yet delivered, such as Patriot air defense systems, MLRS HIMARS and F-35 fighters, writes the Polish portal Onet, citing a number of media outlets in their country.

According to the Polish Internet edition Interia, several thousand officers took part in the exercise. During the simulation, literally everything was taken into account. Even a reformed system of military command and control was used. But the exercises ended not only in complete failure, but in a gigantic disaster. The Polish Armed Forces were defeated in a very short time and ceased to exist.

The war is lost in 5 days

- stated in Interia.

The portal clarified that the fierce defense on the eastern front led to the defeat of military units and huge losses among the military personnel. On the fifth day the enemy reached the Vistula line, but Poland no longer had an army to defend it.

The battles for Warsaw were still going on, but the ports were already either blocked or captured by the enemy. The aviation and navy no longer existed as a branch of the armed forces. The ground forces lost 60-80 percent of their personnel. The exercise caused real confusion in the ranks of the military.

In turn, the Polish tabloid Super Express provided additional information, referring to its informants. Initially, the Polish Armed Forces planned to hold the defense for 22 days before the arrival of reinforcements in the form of forces of NATO allies. However, on the fourth day Warsaw was surrounded, and the enemy was advancing westward. Everything went completely wrong as planned by the Polish military leaders. Moreover, the commanders of some units were shocked by the assigned tasks and refused to complete them.

The head of state Andrzej Duda and the head of the military department Mariusz Blaszak were familiarized with the results of the exercises. At the same time, the office of the President of Poland and the Ministry of National Defense refused to comment on the above information, citing secrecy, the Polish media summed up.

You miss the obvious.

What if substantial NATO forces are already in Poland when the war begins?

They will be crushed too, then. Russia has three Tank Armies at the Ukrainian border plus two (maybe three) Tank Corps in the DPR and LPR.
Actually, it is more, than the whole Europe has or able to send in the Poland. Also it means that it is a "regional war" from its very beginning and Russia is going to use nukes (at least tactical).
If there are American forces, and Russia is sure, that the USA are determined to use it - it is a "large-scale war" from its very beginning, and Russia has only one choice - between "uncontrolled escalation" (or, may be, "escalation for de-escalation", if they believe that the USA may retreat after a really serious demonstration of power and decisiveness) or "preemptive strike" (in which American retaliation strike will be significantly weakened or may be even prevented by "postattack blackmail").

 

[Vrenn]

If the Russians (as some of thr

End results; US losses in Conus of about 85%, Russian losses at almost 95%. We go back to the 1800s while you go back to the stone age. Our factories are scattered across the nation while yours are in primary large clumps of population.

You forgot about China, India or even EU. All-out war between the USA and Russia will make them happy heirs of the whole world.

There will be NO Nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. It's doomsday scenario. And if you are trying to scare the sheep of the Party of the Rumpers, us old Military People know better. You fear it more than we do. If you don't, you should.

Sure, there will be nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. Especially if Administration don't believe it, too. It's how the detterence works.
And no, it's not doomsday scenario. First of all - a counter force strike. When more than 80% of the defenders nuclear forces are destroyed - postattack blackmail. Then - negotiations, or protracted war, or total annihilation of the unlucky defender. Yes, it will be a catastrophe, but, definitely not a doomsday.

I've seen the programmed results of the first strike from both sides and then the second attack (there is no 3rd attack possible). Both sides use the Triad where you have zero chance of taking all sides of the Triad out during the initial attack. And what good does it do attacking sites already launched? But you have no choice since the failure rate will leave some missiles in the silos that couldn't initially be fired but can be repaired very quickly. So that requires both sides to have reserve ICMBs. Sometimes by design sometimes by faults.

The damage won't be from just the blast areas. The Fallout will make you wished you were in the blast area. But think of this, the after affects cures the Global Warming since instead of the gradual temp increase, you get a very fast temp decrease. In the United States, it renders the Grain Belt to what the Canadian Farm Lands are today. But the southern regions get more rain and cooler temps and in a couple of years become the new Grain Belt. Mexico actually benefits from it. But Brazil and Argentina gets murdered by it.

But Russia doesn't have a northern Grain Belt. It has a southern grain belt, a small one and it loses the high production there while China gets one hell of a boost.

AS for Factories, China doesn't get that affected but their population will die from the crap in the air. So they will have to take measures for that. But the factory may be taken out just by not having enough resources and people to keep it open. The US will lose probably around 25% of our Factories but the rest will be left unharmed since our factories and industries are spread. Russia has their industries, like their population centers, clustered so they will lost closer to 85% of their Factories and Manufacturing ability and have almost a 95% civilian loss rate versus the US loss rate of less than 85%.

You think it's cold in Siberian now?

Only an insane Sillyvillian believes anyone can win a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US. The Entire world loses. Of course, it helps if you are already in the Stone Age, but move over, you are going to get a lot of visitors.

First of all, there is no choice between war and peace (from the Russian point of view) in your scenario. There is the choice between "uncontrolled escalation" (leading to a regional war and then to all-out nuclear war, may be at the moment choosen by the Americans), and "preemptive strike" (at the moment choosen by the Russians).
There are three main goals of any government in a war:
1) protect its citizens;
2) punish the enemy;
3) to win the war and the further peace.

Most important, of course, is the first goal. Therefore, the first strike must be counterforce one. And there are rather reliable ways to kill near 80% of the nuclear arsenal by the first sudden strike.
Also, there are ways to intercept warheads, cruise missiles and planes with bombs.
Then, there are ways to decrease consequences of the nuclear exchange. For example, Russia has Ukraine and the whole Europe to take food from.
Nobody cares about the world. Actually, there is no any working climate models, both "Global warming" and "Nuclear winter" are nothing but poor pseudoscientic speculations. Anyway, winner will have resources of the whole world to deal with any problems, and loser will be dead.
Fallouts may be a problem but not catastrophic. Both Russia and the USA have more than enough lands to evacuate people.

How many factories will survive in Russia and the USA depends on their ability to prevent "free raids" by strategic (and medium) bombers with nuclear CMs and bombs. And for this ability (returning to discussion about F-35) sides need big amount of relatively cheap fighters and interceptors with long range air-to-air missiles. China will sell to Russians J-16 (or, may be, J-20) with PL-21, and may be, will help them to restore production of Su-35, MiG-31, Su-57 with a number of different types of AAMs, and what will sell the EU to the USA? Eurofighters with "MBDA Meteor"?

in Russia-US direct nuclear war both will be losers, China will be a winner.
Thus the only realistic scenario is a war in 3d countries, most probably in Europe.
Ukraine, Eastern Europe as battleground with nuckear stikes against Western Europe, except France and UK.

I don't believe the US is eager to be nuked so no obligations to its NATO allies will be fulfilled.

Just invade a NATO country and find out. Putin is much more cautious on that one.

As I said, forces of NATO:Russia are 4,5-6-9 (I met different estimates) : 1

Obviously Russia is not going to invade NATO, it would be insane. Such fearmongering is nothing but Western propaganda to justify own agression.

everything is opposite, the US is building bases on Russian borders and it is NATO which is going to invade Russia if or when, as Washington hopes, Western sanctions lead to destabilisation of domestic situation in Russia or if/when US puppets like Georgia or Ukraine succeed in dragging Russia into a regional war.

in this case, if NATO prevails in the field with conventional weapons - Russia may use nukes first against Western forces, then against US bases in Eastern Europe, then against NATO European cities, and only the last phase is direct nuclear exchange with the US, if nothing of previous measures stops you.

And it's the policy of the US, if Russia or any other country uses even one Nuke, let the Nukes start flying. It ends up being the first and last option. And both sides know it. NO NUKES will be used by either side. Yah, I know, the 1980s plan by the Soviets were to nuke select targets in Europe but that plan is no longer sane. Ignite one Nuke on ANY Nato country and the big one happens.

Just read Russian military doctrine, the part about definitions.

Военная доктрина Российской Федерации

Новости, стенограммы, фото и видеозаписи, документы, подписанные Президентом России, информация о деятельности Администрации

www.kremlin.ru

---------------------
f) local war – a war between two or more states, pursuing limited military and political goals, in which military operations are conducted within the borders of the opposing states and which mainly affects the interests of only these states (territorial, economic, political and other);
g) regional war – a war involving two or more States of the same region, waged by national or coalition armed forces using both conventional and nuclear weapons, on the territory of the region with its adjacent waters and in the air (space) space above it, during which the parties will pursue important military and political goals;
h) large-scale war – a war between coalitions of states or the largest states of the world community, in which the parties will pursue radical military and political goals. A large-scale war can be the result of an escalation of an armed conflict, a local or regional war involving a significant number of States from different regions of the world. It will require the mobilization of all available material resources and spiritual forces of the participating States;
---------------------------------
The very definition of the term "Regional war" means limited usage of the nuclear weapon.

No it doesn't. By your definition of "Regional War" you would use Nukes against Ukraine when the start to kick your butts out of their country. And I give the Russian Military Leaders more credit than that.

By the Russian definition, Russia is not a side of the "Ukrainian Civil War" at all. But even when Russia will join this conflict, and, say, retake Kiev, it will be a "local war". It will be a "regional war" if other European (but not American) countries join this conflict, and then, Russia, highly likely, will use nukes.

Are you trying to make us all askeered of the teddy bear? Like I said, we don't have to fight Ukraines battles. They know how to fight. But we are obligated to get first line equipment into their hands along with training to do the fighting. And there are only two birds we won't send them and that will be the F-22 and F-35. But nothing stops us from sending in the latest F-18/16 and F-15EX which are more than a match for anything in quantity that Russia has to offer.

Keep that in mind, Ivan.

And if we do send in advisors and trainer make damn sure you don't harm a hair on their heads. You may not like the response.

lol, you Americans are too greedy to send anything to Ukraine which costs more than a hundred bucks

I don't want to get you scared, it is just my concern speaks in me that when you get your ass kicked you may start behaving even more inadequate than you do now
Nuclear war is a real possibility, Russia invests in nuclear weapons not to allow our defeat, one must think with his ass not to understand it and after discussions here I tend to think there is no such understanding in America.

I foresee your future screams when we take Kiev as a result of Ukrainian military adventures which the US encourages. Ukraine is moving heavy weapons to Donbass, without US direct approval or order they would not dare to start a war with Russia.

newsflash, Ivan. Ukraine doesn't need the USes permission to kick your sorry butts out of Ukraine. Sorry, but your buddy Rump ain't in office anymore. You'll have to groom another one and that takes years and decades.

No, sleepy Joe is absolutely fine
he can do more for collapse of the US than Brezhnev did for collapse of USSR
as aproverb says - every country has that leader which it deserves

You have 5-10 years till collapse of the US....



as for Ukraine, if left without 7/24 Russian governance if fails in everything. It's a failed state, and will disintegrate into becoming a Russian province...

And what does that have to do with the F-35? If you see F-35s over Ukraine, the game is on. Maybe Poland may bring theirs when they get them. The Balkan Nations can't afford for the Ukraine to fall to Russia. And it's pretty well known that some of the EU fighters will stack up against everything you Russians can throw at them. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the EU were to equip Ukraine with some of them. But if Poland does a defense agreement with Ukraine, they are next in procuring the F-35A along with the Aim120D and Aim9X. And Ukraine has at least one AWACs equal to the Russians. There are also NATO AWACs patroling the Ukrainian border as well. Sorry, no sneaky, sneaky attacks in the air. Remember, Russia only has 50 SU-35s in the inventory. Do if they wish to field a decent force, about 30 SU-35s are going to be usable. The bulk are going to be SU-30/33/27, Mig29s.

if Poland get's involved, it may include a few F-35As. And the US has a ton of F-15C/16Cs in storage that they would sell on the cheap. The US is taking many of the F-16Cs our of service that are perfectly good birds with the newest upgrades just short of the V. With the F-15EX coming online, there are going to be a bunch of F-15Cs and Es that could be had for a song and a dance for Ukraine. Ukraine has already stated they are switching to Western Fighters as quickly as they can.

Unfortunately, Ukraine has a dismal Military Air since 2014. But they have battle hardened and experienced pilots. What they lack are fighters. And that can be corrected in a matter of a year by the EU and the Balkan Nations and US Surplus.

If Poland get involved, it will take only 5 days to finish it's existence, according their own command stuff exercises.

"The war is lost in 5 days": the exercises of the Polish army "Winter-20" ended in complete failure

The Zima-20 command-staff exercises were held in Poland, but their results were extremely sad for the Polish military. Combat simulation even included new weapons systems ordered by Poland but not yet delivered, such as Patriot air defense systems, HIMARS MLRS and F-35 fighters, writes the Polish

en.topcor.ru

"The war is lost in 5 days": the exercises of the Polish army "Winter-20" ended in complete failure
February 2 2021

The Zima-20 command-staff exercise was held in Poland, but its results were extremely sad for the Polish military. The simulation of military operations even included new weapons systems ordered by Poland, but not yet delivered, such as Patriot air defense systems, MLRS HIMARS and F-35 fighters, writes the Polish portal Onet, citing a number of media outlets in their country.

According to the Polish Internet edition Interia, several thousand officers took part in the exercise. During the simulation, literally everything was taken into account. Even a reformed system of military command and control was used. But the exercises ended not only in complete failure, but in a gigantic disaster. The Polish Armed Forces were defeated in a very short time and ceased to exist.

The war is lost in 5 days

- stated in Interia.

The portal clarified that the fierce defense on the eastern front led to the defeat of military units and huge losses among the military personnel. On the fifth day the enemy reached the Vistula line, but Poland no longer had an army to defend it.

The battles for Warsaw were still going on, but the ports were already either blocked or captured by the enemy. The aviation and navy no longer existed as a branch of the armed forces. The ground forces lost 60-80 percent of their personnel. The exercise caused real confusion in the ranks of the military.

In turn, the Polish tabloid Super Express provided additional information, referring to its informants. Initially, the Polish Armed Forces planned to hold the defense for 22 days before the arrival of reinforcements in the form of forces of NATO allies. However, on the fourth day Warsaw was surrounded, and the enemy was advancing westward. Everything went completely wrong as planned by the Polish military leaders. Moreover, the commanders of some units were shocked by the assigned tasks and refused to complete them.

The head of state Andrzej Duda and the head of the military department Mariusz Blaszak were familiarized with the results of the exercises. At the same time, the office of the President of Poland and the Ministry of National Defense refused to comment on the above information, citing secrecy, the Polish media summed up.

And that was in 1939. Poland isn't the weak duckling it once was. And if Poland goes, so does the other Baltic States. Each one is weak but together, they can make one hell of a dent and provide that missing Air Force that Ukraine lacks. And quite a mass of troops where Ukraine is the battle field. Trying to take Ukraine may not be the biggest blunder that Russia has ever done but it would be close to it and it would probably mean the end of Russia as it is today. The Chinese might decide that they want a chunk of eastern Russia at the same time. AFterall, what would be there to stop them.

 

[Vrenn]

If the Russians (as some of thr

End results; US losses in Conus of about 85%, Russian losses at almost 95%. We go back to the 1800s while you go back to the stone age. Our factories are scattered across the nation while yours are in primary large clumps of population.

You forgot about China, India or even EU. All-out war between the USA and Russia will make them happy heirs of the whole world.

There will be NO Nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. It's doomsday scenario. And if you are trying to scare the sheep of the Party of the Rumpers, us old Military People know better. You fear it more than we do. If you don't, you should.

Sure, there will be nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. Especially if Administration don't believe it, too. It's how the detterence works.
And no, it's not doomsday scenario. First of all - a counter force strike. When more than 80% of the defenders nuclear forces are destroyed - postattack blackmail. Then - negotiations, or protracted war, or total annihilation of the unlucky defender. Yes, it will be a catastrophe, but, definitely not a doomsday.

I've seen the programmed results of the first strike from both sides and then the second attack (there is no 3rd attack possible). Both sides use the Triad where you have zero chance of taking all sides of the Triad out during the initial attack. And what good does it do attacking sites already launched? But you have no choice since the failure rate will leave some missiles in the silos that couldn't initially be fired but can be repaired very quickly. So that requires both sides to have reserve ICMBs. Sometimes by design sometimes by faults.

The damage won't be from just the blast areas. The Fallout will make you wished you were in the blast area. But think of this, the after affects cures the Global Warming since instead of the gradual temp increase, you get a very fast temp decrease. In the United States, it renders the Grain Belt to what the Canadian Farm Lands are today. But the southern regions get more rain and cooler temps and in a couple of years become the new Grain Belt. Mexico actually benefits from it. But Brazil and Argentina gets murdered by it.

But Russia doesn't have a northern Grain Belt. It has a southern grain belt, a small one and it loses the high production there while China gets one hell of a boost.

AS for Factories, China doesn't get that affected but their population will die from the crap in the air. So they will have to take measures for that. But the factory may be taken out just by not having enough resources and people to keep it open. The US will lose probably around 25% of our Factories but the rest will be left unharmed since our factories and industries are spread. Russia has their industries, like their population centers, clustered so they will lost closer to 85% of their Factories and Manufacturing ability and have almost a 95% civilian loss rate versus the US loss rate of less than 85%.

You think it's cold in Siberian now?

Only an insane Sillyvillian believes anyone can win a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US. The Entire world loses. Of course, it helps if you are already in the Stone Age, but move over, you are going to get a lot of visitors.

First of all, there is no choice between war and peace (from the Russian point of view) in your scenario. There is the choice between "uncontrolled escalation" (leading to a regional war and then to all-out nuclear war, may be at the moment choosen by the Americans), and "preemptive strike" (at the moment choosen by the Russians).
There are three main goals of any government in a war:
1) protect its citizens;
2) punish the enemy;
3) to win the war and the further peace.

Most important, of course, is the first goal. Therefore, the first strike must be counterforce one. And there are rather reliable ways to kill near 80% of the nuclear arsenal by the first sudden strike.
Also, there are ways to intercept warheads, cruise missiles and planes with bombs.
Then, there are ways to decrease consequences of the nuclear exchange. For example, Russia has Ukraine and the whole Europe to take food from.
Nobody cares about the world. Actually, there is no any working climate models, both "Global warming" and "Nuclear winter" are nothing but poor pseudoscientic speculations. Anyway, winner will have resources of the whole world to deal with any problems, and loser will be dead.
Fallouts may be a problem but not catastrophic. Both Russia and the USA have more than enough lands to evacuate people.

How many factories will survive in Russia and the USA depends on their ability to prevent "free raids" by strategic (and medium) bombers with nuclear CMs and bombs. And for this ability (returning to discussion about F-35) sides need big amount of relatively cheap fighters and interceptors with long range air-to-air missiles. China will sell to Russians J-16 (or, may be, J-20) with PL-21, and may be, will help them to restore production of Su-35, MiG-31, Su-57 with a number of different types of AAMs, and what will sell the EU to the USA? Eurofighters with "MBDA Meteor"?

in Russia-US direct nuclear war both will be losers, China will be a winner.
Thus the only realistic scenario is a war in 3d countries, most probably in Europe.
Ukraine, Eastern Europe as battleground with nuckear stikes against Western Europe, except France and UK.

I don't believe the US is eager to be nuked so no obligations to its NATO allies will be fulfilled.

Just invade a NATO country and find out. Putin is much more cautious on that one.

As I said, forces of NATO:Russia are 4,5-6-9 (I met different estimates) : 1

Obviously Russia is not going to invade NATO, it would be insane. Such fearmongering is nothing but Western propaganda to justify own agression.

everything is opposite, the US is building bases on Russian borders and it is NATO which is going to invade Russia if or when, as Washington hopes, Western sanctions lead to destabilisation of domestic situation in Russia or if/when US puppets like Georgia or Ukraine succeed in dragging Russia into a regional war.

in this case, if NATO prevails in the field with conventional weapons - Russia may use nukes first against Western forces, then against US bases in Eastern Europe, then against NATO European cities, and only the last phase is direct nuclear exchange with the US, if nothing of previous measures stops you.

And it's the policy of the US, if Russia or any other country uses even one Nuke, let the Nukes start flying. It ends up being the first and last option. And both sides know it. NO NUKES will be used by either side. Yah, I know, the 1980s plan by the Soviets were to nuke select targets in Europe but that plan is no longer sane. Ignite one Nuke on ANY Nato country and the big one happens.

Just read Russian military doctrine, the part about definitions.

Военная доктрина Российской Федерации

Новости, стенограммы, фото и видеозаписи, документы, подписанные Президентом России, информация о деятельности Администрации

www.kremlin.ru

---------------------
f) local war – a war between two or more states, pursuing limited military and political goals, in which military operations are conducted within the borders of the opposing states and which mainly affects the interests of only these states (territorial, economic, political and other);
g) regional war – a war involving two or more States of the same region, waged by national or coalition armed forces using both conventional and nuclear weapons, on the territory of the region with its adjacent waters and in the air (space) space above it, during which the parties will pursue important military and political goals;
h) large-scale war – a war between coalitions of states or the largest states of the world community, in which the parties will pursue radical military and political goals. A large-scale war can be the result of an escalation of an armed conflict, a local or regional war involving a significant number of States from different regions of the world. It will require the mobilization of all available material resources and spiritual forces of the participating States;
---------------------------------
The very definition of the term "Regional war" means limited usage of the nuclear weapon.

No it doesn't. By your definition of "Regional War" you would use Nukes against Ukraine when the start to kick your butts out of their country. And I give the Russian Military Leaders more credit than that.

By the Russian definition, Russia is not a side of the "Ukrainian Civil War" at all. But even when Russia will join this conflict, and, say, retake Kiev, it will be a "local war". It will be a "regional war" if other European (but not American) countries join this conflict, and then, Russia, highly likely, will use nukes.

Are you trying to make us all askeered of the teddy bear? Like I said, we don't have to fight Ukraines battles. They know how to fight. But we are obligated to get first line equipment into their hands along with training to do the fighting. And there are only two birds we won't send them and that will be the F-22 and F-35. But nothing stops us from sending in the latest F-18/16 and F-15EX which are more than a match for anything in quantity that Russia has to offer.

Keep that in mind, Ivan.

And if we do send in advisors and trainer make damn sure you don't harm a hair on their heads. You may not like the response.

lol, you Americans are too greedy to send anything to Ukraine which costs more than a hundred bucks

I don't want to get you scared, it is just my concern speaks in me that when you get your ass kicked you may start behaving even more inadequate than you do now
Nuclear war is a real possibility, Russia invests in nuclear weapons not to allow our defeat, one must think with his ass not to understand it and after discussions here I tend to think there is no such understanding in America.

I foresee your future screams when we take Kiev as a result of Ukrainian military adventures which the US encourages. Ukraine is moving heavy weapons to Donbass, without US direct approval or order they would not dare to start a war with Russia.

newsflash, Ivan. Ukraine doesn't need the USes permission to kick your sorry butts out of Ukraine. Sorry, but your buddy Rump ain't in office anymore. You'll have to groom another one and that takes years and decades.

No, sleepy Joe is absolutely fine
he can do more for collapse of the US than Brezhnev did for collapse of USSR
as aproverb says - every country has that leader which it deserves

You have 5-10 years till collapse of the US....



as for Ukraine, if left without 7/24 Russian governance if fails in everything. It's a failed state, and will disintegrate into becoming a Russian province...

And what does that have to do with the F-35? If you see F-35s over Ukraine, the game is on. Maybe Poland may bring theirs when they get them. The Balkan Nations can't afford for the Ukraine to fall to Russia. And it's pretty well known that some of the EU fighters will stack up against everything you Russians can throw at them. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the EU were to equip Ukraine with some of them. But if Poland does a defense agreement with Ukraine, they are next in procuring the F-35A along with the Aim120D and Aim9X. And Ukraine has at least one AWACs equal to the Russians. There are also NATO AWACs patroling the Ukrainian border as well. Sorry, no sneaky, sneaky attacks in the air. Remember, Russia only has 50 SU-35s in the inventory. Do if they wish to field a decent force, about 30 SU-35s are going to be usable. The bulk are going to be SU-30/33/27, Mig29s.

if Poland get's involved, it may include a few F-35As. And the US has a ton of F-15C/16Cs in storage that they would sell on the cheap. The US is taking many of the F-16Cs our of service that are perfectly good birds with the newest upgrades just short of the V. With the F-15EX coming online, there are going to be a bunch of F-15Cs and Es that could be had for a song and a dance for Ukraine. Ukraine has already stated they are switching to Western Fighters as quickly as they can.

Unfortunately, Ukraine has a dismal Military Air since 2014. But they have battle hardened and experienced pilots. What they lack are fighters. And that can be corrected in a matter of a year by the EU and the Balkan Nations and US Surplus.

First. Ukraine don't have any AWACS - neither A-50, nor A-100. The most close thing they have is An-30.
---------------

Antonov An-30 - Wikipedia

en.m.wikipedia.org

The Antonov An-30 (NATO reporting name: Clank), is a development of the An-24 designed for aerial cartography.
------------

Second. Neither Ukraine, nor Ukraine-Polish-Baltic-Balcan alliance (in a local war), nor the whole hypothetical EU Army (in a regional war) are able to defeat Russia. Only the USA (in large-scale war) have a chance to do it.
Third. To defeat Russia, or be able to use Detterence Type II (against extremal Russian provication), the USA need to have the Credible First Strike Capability. It is not only about possibility to harm them. It is more about possibility to face Russian retaliation strike. And, to be able to face Russian retaliation strike and to prevent "free rides" of the Russian bombers (and therefore - postattack blackmail) - the USA need many relatively cheap fighters and interceptors with long range AAMs (better - with both nuclear and conventional warheads) and it is obviously not F-35.

They have one "Gifted" to them in 2010 from Russia. And there are enough AWACs flying around the borders to get the job done. Ukraine just isn't that large. We both know that Ukraine can field over 400,000 ground troops over night. Poland tosses in another 100,000, the other baltics toss in another 100,000. It's up to 600,000. They bring their equipment with them. What's to say that ex military from other countries don't show up to fly those Aircraft that are being "Gifted" to the Ukranians and the Baltic States. Remember the Ravens? Or how about the Flying Tigers. Or the Eagle Squadrons. Sorry, Ivan but it's not always to your advantage just because you say it is. Like I said, invading Ukraine may not be the worst thing Russia has ever done but it's damned close if it were to happen. Ukraine is starting to get serious about your leaving. I suggest you hike your skirts up and go home from the dance. It's getting ready to get damned ugly. Donnie isn't President anymore.

 

[Vrenn]

If the Russians (as some of thr

End results; US losses in Conus of about 85%, Russian losses at almost 95%. We go back to the 1800s while you go back to the stone age. Our factories are scattered across the nation while yours are in primary large clumps of population.

You forgot about China, India or even EU. All-out war between the USA and Russia will make them happy heirs of the whole world.

There will be NO Nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. It's doomsday scenario. And if you are trying to scare the sheep of the Party of the Rumpers, us old Military People know better. You fear it more than we do. If you don't, you should.

Sure, there will be nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. Especially if Administration don't believe it, too. It's how the detterence works.
And no, it's not doomsday scenario. First of all - a counter force strike. When more than 80% of the defenders nuclear forces are destroyed - postattack blackmail. Then - negotiations, or protracted war, or total annihilation of the unlucky defender. Yes, it will be a catastrophe, but, definitely not a doomsday.

I've seen the programmed results of the first strike from both sides and then the second attack (there is no 3rd attack possible). Both sides use the Triad where you have zero chance of taking all sides of the Triad out during the initial attack. And what good does it do attacking sites already launched? But you have no choice since the failure rate will leave some missiles in the silos that couldn't initially be fired but can be repaired very quickly. So that requires both sides to have reserve ICMBs. Sometimes by design sometimes by faults.

The damage won't be from just the blast areas. The Fallout will make you wished you were in the blast area. But think of this, the after affects cures the Global Warming since instead of the gradual temp increase, you get a very fast temp decrease. In the United States, it renders the Grain Belt to what the Canadian Farm Lands are today. But the southern regions get more rain and cooler temps and in a couple of years become the new Grain Belt. Mexico actually benefits from it. But Brazil and Argentina gets murdered by it.

But Russia doesn't have a northern Grain Belt. It has a southern grain belt, a small one and it loses the high production there while China gets one hell of a boost.

AS for Factories, China doesn't get that affected but their population will die from the crap in the air. So they will have to take measures for that. But the factory may be taken out just by not having enough resources and people to keep it open. The US will lose probably around 25% of our Factories but the rest will be left unharmed since our factories and industries are spread. Russia has their industries, like their population centers, clustered so they will lost closer to 85% of their Factories and Manufacturing ability and have almost a 95% civilian loss rate versus the US loss rate of less than 85%.

You think it's cold in Siberian now?

Only an insane Sillyvillian believes anyone can win a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US. The Entire world loses. Of course, it helps if you are already in the Stone Age, but move over, you are going to get a lot of visitors.

First of all, there is no choice between war and peace (from the Russian point of view) in your scenario. There is the choice between "uncontrolled escalation" (leading to a regional war and then to all-out nuclear war, may be at the moment choosen by the Americans), and "preemptive strike" (at the moment choosen by the Russians).
There are three main goals of any government in a war:
1) protect its citizens;
2) punish the enemy;
3) to win the war and the further peace.

Most important, of course, is the first goal. Therefore, the first strike must be counterforce one. And there are rather reliable ways to kill near 80% of the nuclear arsenal by the first sudden strike.
Also, there are ways to intercept warheads, cruise missiles and planes with bombs.
Then, there are ways to decrease consequences of the nuclear exchange. For example, Russia has Ukraine and the whole Europe to take food from.
Nobody cares about the world. Actually, there is no any working climate models, both "Global warming" and "Nuclear winter" are nothing but poor pseudoscientic speculations. Anyway, winner will have resources of the whole world to deal with any problems, and loser will be dead.
Fallouts may be a problem but not catastrophic. Both Russia and the USA have more than enough lands to evacuate people.

How many factories will survive in Russia and the USA depends on their ability to prevent "free raids" by strategic (and medium) bombers with nuclear CMs and bombs. And for this ability (returning to discussion about F-35) sides need big amount of relatively cheap fighters and interceptors with long range air-to-air missiles. China will sell to Russians J-16 (or, may be, J-20) with PL-21, and may be, will help them to restore production of Su-35, MiG-31, Su-57 with a number of different types of AAMs, and what will sell the EU to the USA? Eurofighters with "MBDA Meteor"?

in Russia-US direct nuclear war both will be losers, China will be a winner.
Thus the only realistic scenario is a war in 3d countries, most probably in Europe.
Ukraine, Eastern Europe as battleground with nuckear stikes against Western Europe, except France and UK.

I don't believe the US is eager to be nuked so no obligations to its NATO allies will be fulfilled.

Just invade a NATO country and find out. Putin is much more cautious on that one.

As I said, forces of NATO:Russia are 4,5-6-9 (I met different estimates) : 1

Obviously Russia is not going to invade NATO, it would be insane. Such fearmongering is nothing but Western propaganda to justify own agression.

everything is opposite, the US is building bases on Russian borders and it is NATO which is going to invade Russia if or when, as Washington hopes, Western sanctions lead to destabilisation of domestic situation in Russia or if/when US puppets like Georgia or Ukraine succeed in dragging Russia into a regional war.

in this case, if NATO prevails in the field with conventional weapons - Russia may use nukes first against Western forces, then against US bases in Eastern Europe, then against NATO European cities, and only the last phase is direct nuclear exchange with the US, if nothing of previous measures stops you.

And it's the policy of the US, if Russia or any other country uses even one Nuke, let the Nukes start flying. It ends up being the first and last option. And both sides know it. NO NUKES will be used by either side. Yah, I know, the 1980s plan by the Soviets were to nuke select targets in Europe but that plan is no longer sane. Ignite one Nuke on ANY Nato country and the big one happens.

Just read Russian military doctrine, the part about definitions.

Военная доктрина Российской Федерации

Новости, стенограммы, фото и видеозаписи, документы, подписанные Президентом России, информация о деятельности Администрации

www.kremlin.ru

---------------------
f) local war – a war between two or more states, pursuing limited military and political goals, in which military operations are conducted within the borders of the opposing states and which mainly affects the interests of only these states (territorial, economic, political and other);
g) regional war – a war involving two or more States of the same region, waged by national or coalition armed forces using both conventional and nuclear weapons, on the territory of the region with its adjacent waters and in the air (space) space above it, during which the parties will pursue important military and political goals;
h) large-scale war – a war between coalitions of states or the largest states of the world community, in which the parties will pursue radical military and political goals. A large-scale war can be the result of an escalation of an armed conflict, a local or regional war involving a significant number of States from different regions of the world. It will require the mobilization of all available material resources and spiritual forces of the participating States;
---------------------------------
The very definition of the term "Regional war" means limited usage of the nuclear weapon.

No it doesn't. By your definition of "Regional War" you would use Nukes against Ukraine when the start to kick your butts out of their country. And I give the Russian Military Leaders more credit than that.

By the Russian definition, Russia is not a side of the "Ukrainian Civil War" at all. But even when Russia will join this conflict, and, say, retake Kiev, it will be a "local war". It will be a "regional war" if other European (but not American) countries join this conflict, and then, Russia, highly likely, will use nukes.

Are you trying to make us all askeered of the teddy bear? Like I said, we don't have to fight Ukraines battles. They know how to fight. But we are obligated to get first line equipment into their hands along with training to do the fighting. And there are only two birds we won't send them and that will be the F-22 and F-35. But nothing stops us from sending in the latest F-18/16 and F-15EX which are more than a match for anything in quantity that Russia has to offer.

Keep that in mind, Ivan.

And if we do send in advisors and trainer make damn sure you don't harm a hair on their heads. You may not like the response.

lol, you Americans are too greedy to send anything to Ukraine which costs more than a hundred bucks

I don't want to get you scared, it is just my concern speaks in me that when you get your ass kicked you may start behaving even more inadequate than you do now
Nuclear war is a real possibility, Russia invests in nuclear weapons not to allow our defeat, one must think with his ass not to understand it and after discussions here I tend to think there is no such understanding in America.

I foresee your future screams when we take Kiev as a result of Ukrainian military adventures which the US encourages. Ukraine is moving heavy weapons to Donbass, without US direct approval or order they would not dare to start a war with Russia.

newsflash, Ivan. Ukraine doesn't need the USes permission to kick your sorry butts out of Ukraine. Sorry, but your buddy Rump ain't in office anymore. You'll have to groom another one and that takes years and decades.

No, sleepy Joe is absolutely fine
he can do more for collapse of the US than Brezhnev did for collapse of USSR
as aproverb says - every country has that leader which it deserves

You have 5-10 years till collapse of the US....



as for Ukraine, if left without 7/24 Russian governance if fails in everything. It's a failed state, and will disintegrate into becoming a Russian province...

And what does that have to do with the F-35? If you see F-35s over Ukraine, the game is on. Maybe Poland may bring theirs when they get them. The Balkan Nations can't afford for the Ukraine to fall to Russia. And it's pretty well known that some of the EU fighters will stack up against everything you Russians can throw at them. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the EU were to equip Ukraine with some of them. But if Poland does a defense agreement with Ukraine, they are next in procuring the F-35A along with the Aim120D and Aim9X. And Ukraine has at least one AWACs equal to the Russians. There are also NATO AWACs patroling the Ukrainian border as well. Sorry, no sneaky, sneaky attacks in the air. Remember, Russia only has 50 SU-35s in the inventory. Do if they wish to field a decent force, about 30 SU-35s are going to be usable. The bulk are going to be SU-30/33/27, Mig29s.

if Poland get's involved, it may include a few F-35As. And the US has a ton of F-15C/16Cs in storage that they would sell on the cheap. The US is taking many of the F-16Cs our of service that are perfectly good birds with the newest upgrades just short of the V. With the F-15EX coming online, there are going to be a bunch of F-15Cs and Es that could be had for a song and a dance for Ukraine. Ukraine has already stated they are switching to Western Fighters as quickly as they can.

Unfortunately, Ukraine has a dismal Military Air since 2014. But they have battle hardened and experienced pilots. What they lack are fighters. And that can be corrected in a matter of a year by the EU and the Balkan Nations and US Surplus.

If Poland get involved, it will take only 5 days to finish it's existence, according their own command stuff exercises.

"The war is lost in 5 days": the exercises of the Polish army "Winter-20" ended in complete failure

The Zima-20 command-staff exercises were held in Poland, but their results were extremely sad for the Polish military. Combat simulation even included new weapons systems ordered by Poland but not yet delivered, such as Patriot air defense systems, HIMARS MLRS and F-35 fighters, writes the Polish

en.topcor.ru

"The war is lost in 5 days": the exercises of the Polish army "Winter-20" ended in complete failure
February 2 2021

The Zima-20 command-staff exercise was held in Poland, but its results were extremely sad for the Polish military. The simulation of military operations even included new weapons systems ordered by Poland, but not yet delivered, such as Patriot air defense systems, MLRS HIMARS and F-35 fighters, writes the Polish portal Onet, citing a number of media outlets in their country.

According to the Polish Internet edition Interia, several thousand officers took part in the exercise. During the simulation, literally everything was taken into account. Even a reformed system of military command and control was used. But the exercises ended not only in complete failure, but in a gigantic disaster. The Polish Armed Forces were defeated in a very short time and ceased to exist.

The war is lost in 5 days

- stated in Interia.

The portal clarified that the fierce defense on the eastern front led to the defeat of military units and huge losses among the military personnel. On the fifth day the enemy reached the Vistula line, but Poland no longer had an army to defend it.

The battles for Warsaw were still going on, but the ports were already either blocked or captured by the enemy. The aviation and navy no longer existed as a branch of the armed forces. The ground forces lost 60-80 percent of their personnel. The exercise caused real confusion in the ranks of the military.

In turn, the Polish tabloid Super Express provided additional information, referring to its informants. Initially, the Polish Armed Forces planned to hold the defense for 22 days before the arrival of reinforcements in the form of forces of NATO allies. However, on the fourth day Warsaw was surrounded, and the enemy was advancing westward. Everything went completely wrong as planned by the Polish military leaders. Moreover, the commanders of some units were shocked by the assigned tasks and refused to complete them.

The head of state Andrzej Duda and the head of the military department Mariusz Blaszak were familiarized with the results of the exercises. At the same time, the office of the President of Poland and the Ministry of National Defense refused to comment on the above information, citing secrecy, the Polish media summed up.

You miss the obvious.

What if substantial NATO forces are already in Poland when the war begins?

They will be crushed too, then. Russia has three Tank Armies at the Ukrainian border plus two (maybe three) Tank Corps in the DPR and LPR.
Actually, it is more, than the whole Europe has or able to send in the Poland. Also it means that it is a "regional war" from its very beginning and Russia is going to use nukes (at least tactical).
If there are American forces, and Russia is sure, that the USA are determined to use it - it is a "large scale-war" from its very beginning, and Russia has only one choice - between "uncontrolled escalation" (or, may be, "escalation for de-escalation", if they believe that the USA may retreat after a really serious demonstration of power and decisiveness) or "preemptive strike" (in which American retaliation strike will be significantly weakened or may be even prevented by "postattack blackmail").

The Russian Military knows the price of using even a single Nuke. And for Strategic Nukes, there can't be any preemptive strikes by either side. You know nothing about the Strategic Nuclear Forces of either side. But I spent 8 years in SAC and know that since I left safeguards have been put in place to prevent preemptive strikes. But the policy of the US is don't use a single nuke because it's all or nothing. That's prevented you Russians from pulling that crap on Europe since the first day you discovered how to make a Nuke. There would be NO measured attack. This plan of yours died in the 80s under Reagan and we haven't changed from it since.

If you need to use nukes to win, pull up your bloomers and go home.

 

[westwall]

If the Russians (as some of thr

End results; US losses in Conus of about 85%, Russian losses at almost 95%. We go back to the 1800s while you go back to the stone age. Our factories are scattered across the nation while yours are in primary large clumps of population.

You forgot about China, India or even EU. All-out war between the USA and Russia will make them happy heirs of the whole world.

There will be NO Nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. It's doomsday scenario. And if you are trying to scare the sheep of the Party of the Rumpers, us old Military People know better. You fear it more than we do. If you don't, you should.

Sure, there will be nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. Especially if Administration don't believe it, too. It's how the detterence works.
And no, it's not doomsday scenario. First of all - a counter force strike. When more than 80% of the defenders nuclear forces are destroyed - postattack blackmail. Then - negotiations, or protracted war, or total annihilation of the unlucky defender. Yes, it will be a catastrophe, but, definitely not a doomsday.

I've seen the programmed results of the first strike from both sides and then the second attack (there is no 3rd attack possible). Both sides use the Triad where you have zero chance of taking all sides of the Triad out during the initial attack. And what good does it do attacking sites already launched? But you have no choice since the failure rate will leave some missiles in the silos that couldn't initially be fired but can be repaired very quickly. So that requires both sides to have reserve ICMBs. Sometimes by design sometimes by faults.

The damage won't be from just the blast areas. The Fallout will make you wished you were in the blast area. But think of this, the after affects cures the Global Warming since instead of the gradual temp increase, you get a very fast temp decrease. In the United States, it renders the Grain Belt to what the Canadian Farm Lands are today. But the southern regions get more rain and cooler temps and in a couple of years become the new Grain Belt. Mexico actually benefits from it. But Brazil and Argentina gets murdered by it.

But Russia doesn't have a northern Grain Belt. It has a southern grain belt, a small one and it loses the high production there while China gets one hell of a boost.

AS for Factories, China doesn't get that affected but their population will die from the crap in the air. So they will have to take measures for that. But the factory may be taken out just by not having enough resources and people to keep it open. The US will lose probably around 25% of our Factories but the rest will be left unharmed since our factories and industries are spread. Russia has their industries, like their population centers, clustered so they will lost closer to 85% of their Factories and Manufacturing ability and have almost a 95% civilian loss rate versus the US loss rate of less than 85%.

You think it's cold in Siberian now?

Only an insane Sillyvillian believes anyone can win a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US. The Entire world loses. Of course, it helps if you are already in the Stone Age, but move over, you are going to get a lot of visitors.

First of all, there is no choice between war and peace (from the Russian point of view) in your scenario. There is the choice between "uncontrolled escalation" (leading to a regional war and then to all-out nuclear war, may be at the moment choosen by the Americans), and "preemptive strike" (at the moment choosen by the Russians).
There are three main goals of any government in a war:
1) protect its citizens;
2) punish the enemy;
3) to win the war and the further peace.

Most important, of course, is the first goal. Therefore, the first strike must be counterforce one. And there are rather reliable ways to kill near 80% of the nuclear arsenal by the first sudden strike.
Also, there are ways to intercept warheads, cruise missiles and planes with bombs.
Then, there are ways to decrease consequences of the nuclear exchange. For example, Russia has Ukraine and the whole Europe to take food from.
Nobody cares about the world. Actually, there is no any working climate models, both "Global warming" and "Nuclear winter" are nothing but poor pseudoscientic speculations. Anyway, winner will have resources of the whole world to deal with any problems, and loser will be dead.
Fallouts may be a problem but not catastrophic. Both Russia and the USA have more than enough lands to evacuate people.

How many factories will survive in Russia and the USA depends on their ability to prevent "free raids" by strategic (and medium) bombers with nuclear CMs and bombs. And for this ability (returning to discussion about F-35) sides need big amount of relatively cheap fighters and interceptors with long range air-to-air missiles. China will sell to Russians J-16 (or, may be, J-20) with PL-21, and may be, will help them to restore production of Su-35, MiG-31, Su-57 with a number of different types of AAMs, and what will sell the EU to the USA? Eurofighters with "MBDA Meteor"?

in Russia-US direct nuclear war both will be losers, China will be a winner.
Thus the only realistic scenario is a war in 3d countries, most probably in Europe.
Ukraine, Eastern Europe as battleground with nuckear stikes against Western Europe, except France and UK.

I don't believe the US is eager to be nuked so no obligations to its NATO allies will be fulfilled.

Just invade a NATO country and find out. Putin is much more cautious on that one.

The Estonians, and Latvians are scared to death right now. The last time pootin invaded a country The obummer/xiden administration whistled Dixie.

They know the same thing will happen to them.

 

[Siberian]

The U.S. will destroy Russia eventually. Destroying most of their conventional military, eliminating their nuclear arsenal and seizing half their territory, permanently.

The U.S. becomes the largest nation on Earth thereafter.

It's the only way the world will know peace.

lol, Napoleon failed, Hitler failed and here sleepy Joe comes, the conquestor...

the US will disintegrate in 5-10 years via civil/racial war. Whites wil be minority in 15-20 years, but even now colored people constitute majority in ages up to 30 y. o. Whites are old and sit at their TVs while young minorities - like BLM - make history.

When the Ponzi scheme - which US Debt is - crumbles - US economy will crash, depriving peope of savings and any means for living, it will lead people to the streets and will start civil war.

All Russia and China have go do is to wait these 10 years, and to successfully prevent nuclear war, since a cornered rat, which the US is, may start it.
This is the main task - not to allow to America to destroy the World on its way to hell.

 

[Siberian]

If the Russians (as some of thr

End results; US losses in Conus of about 85%, Russian losses at almost 95%. We go back to the 1800s while you go back to the stone age. Our factories are scattered across the nation while yours are in primary large clumps of population.

You forgot about China, India or even EU. All-out war between the USA and Russia will make them happy heirs of the whole world.

There will be NO Nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. It's doomsday scenario. And if you are trying to scare the sheep of the Party of the Rumpers, us old Military People know better. You fear it more than we do. If you don't, you should.

Sure, there will be nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. Especially if Administration don't believe it, too. It's how the detterence works.
And no, it's not doomsday scenario. First of all - a counter force strike. When more than 80% of the defenders nuclear forces are destroyed - postattack blackmail. Then - negotiations, or protracted war, or total annihilation of the unlucky defender. Yes, it will be a catastrophe, but, definitely not a doomsday.

I've seen the programmed results of the first strike from both sides and then the second attack (there is no 3rd attack possible). Both sides use the Triad where you have zero chance of taking all sides of the Triad out during the initial attack. And what good does it do attacking sites already launched? But you have no choice since the failure rate will leave some missiles in the silos that couldn't initially be fired but can be repaired very quickly. So that requires both sides to have reserve ICMBs. Sometimes by design sometimes by faults.

The damage won't be from just the blast areas. The Fallout will make you wished you were in the blast area. But think of this, the after affects cures the Global Warming since instead of the gradual temp increase, you get a very fast temp decrease. In the United States, it renders the Grain Belt to what the Canadian Farm Lands are today. But the southern regions get more rain and cooler temps and in a couple of years become the new Grain Belt. Mexico actually benefits from it. But Brazil and Argentina gets murdered by it.

But Russia doesn't have a northern Grain Belt. It has a southern grain belt, a small one and it loses the high production there while China gets one hell of a boost.

AS for Factories, China doesn't get that affected but their population will die from the crap in the air. So they will have to take measures for that. But the factory may be taken out just by not having enough resources and people to keep it open. The US will lose probably around 25% of our Factories but the rest will be left unharmed since our factories and industries are spread. Russia has their industries, like their population centers, clustered so they will lost closer to 85% of their Factories and Manufacturing ability and have almost a 95% civilian loss rate versus the US loss rate of less than 85%.

You think it's cold in Siberian now?

Only an insane Sillyvillian believes anyone can win a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US. The Entire world loses. Of course, it helps if you are already in the Stone Age, but move over, you are going to get a lot of visitors.

First of all, there is no choice between war and peace (from the Russian point of view) in your scenario. There is the choice between "uncontrolled escalation" (leading to a regional war and then to all-out nuclear war, may be at the moment choosen by the Americans), and "preemptive strike" (at the moment choosen by the Russians).
There are three main goals of any government in a war:
1) protect its citizens;
2) punish the enemy;
3) to win the war and the further peace.

Most important, of course, is the first goal. Therefore, the first strike must be counterforce one. And there are rather reliable ways to kill near 80% of the nuclear arsenal by the first sudden strike.
Also, there are ways to intercept warheads, cruise missiles and planes with bombs.
Then, there are ways to decrease consequences of the nuclear exchange. For example, Russia has Ukraine and the whole Europe to take food from.
Nobody cares about the world. Actually, there is no any working climate models, both "Global warming" and "Nuclear winter" are nothing but poor pseudoscientic speculations. Anyway, winner will have resources of the whole world to deal with any problems, and loser will be dead.
Fallouts may be a problem but not catastrophic. Both Russia and the USA have more than enough lands to evacuate people.

How many factories will survive in Russia and the USA depends on their ability to prevent "free raids" by strategic (and medium) bombers with nuclear CMs and bombs. And for this ability (returning to discussion about F-35) sides need big amount of relatively cheap fighters and interceptors with long range air-to-air missiles. China will sell to Russians J-16 (or, may be, J-20) with PL-21, and may be, will help them to restore production of Su-35, MiG-31, Su-57 with a number of different types of AAMs, and what will sell the EU to the USA? Eurofighters with "MBDA Meteor"?

in Russia-US direct nuclear war both will be losers, China will be a winner.
Thus the only realistic scenario is a war in 3d countries, most probably in Europe.
Ukraine, Eastern Europe as battleground with nuckear stikes against Western Europe, except France and UK.

I don't believe the US is eager to be nuked so no obligations to its NATO allies will be fulfilled.

Just invade a NATO country and find out. Putin is much more cautious on that one.

As I said, forces of NATO:Russia are 4,5-6-9 (I met different estimates) : 1

Obviously Russia is not going to invade NATO, it would be insane. Such fearmongering is nothing but Western propaganda to justify own agression.

everything is opposite, the US is building bases on Russian borders and it is NATO which is going to invade Russia if or when, as Washington hopes, Western sanctions lead to destabilisation of domestic situation in Russia or if/when US puppets like Georgia or Ukraine succeed in dragging Russia into a regional war.

in this case, if NATO prevails in the field with conventional weapons - Russia may use nukes first against Western forces, then against US bases in Eastern Europe, then against NATO European cities, and only the last phase is direct nuclear exchange with the US, if nothing of previous measures stops you.

And it's the policy of the US, if Russia or any other country uses even one Nuke, let the Nukes start flying. It ends up being the first and last option. And both sides know it. NO NUKES will be used by either side. Yah, I know, the 1980s plan by the Soviets were to nuke select targets in Europe but that plan is no longer sane. Ignite one Nuke on ANY Nato country and the big one happens.

Just read Russian military doctrine, the part about definitions.

Военная доктрина Российской Федерации

Новости, стенограммы, фото и видеозаписи, документы, подписанные Президентом России, информация о деятельности Администрации

www.kremlin.ru

---------------------
f) local war – a war between two or more states, pursuing limited military and political goals, in which military operations are conducted within the borders of the opposing states and which mainly affects the interests of only these states (territorial, economic, political and other);
g) regional war – a war involving two or more States of the same region, waged by national or coalition armed forces using both conventional and nuclear weapons, on the territory of the region with its adjacent waters and in the air (space) space above it, during which the parties will pursue important military and political goals;
h) large-scale war – a war between coalitions of states or the largest states of the world community, in which the parties will pursue radical military and political goals. A large-scale war can be the result of an escalation of an armed conflict, a local or regional war involving a significant number of States from different regions of the world. It will require the mobilization of all available material resources and spiritual forces of the participating States;
---------------------------------
The very definition of the term "Regional war" means limited usage of the nuclear weapon.

No it doesn't. By your definition of "Regional War" you would use Nukes against Ukraine when the start to kick your butts out of their country. And I give the Russian Military Leaders more credit than that.

By the Russian definition, Russia is not a side of the "Ukrainian Civil War" at all. But even when Russia will join this conflict, and, say, retake Kiev, it will be a "local war". It will be a "regional war" if other European (but not American) countries join this conflict, and then, Russia, highly likely, will use nukes.

Are you trying to make us all askeered of the teddy bear? Like I said, we don't have to fight Ukraines battles. They know how to fight. But we are obligated to get first line equipment into their hands along with training to do the fighting. And there are only two birds we won't send them and that will be the F-22 and F-35. But nothing stops us from sending in the latest F-18/16 and F-15EX which are more than a match for anything in quantity that Russia has to offer.

Keep that in mind, Ivan.

And if we do send in advisors and trainer make damn sure you don't harm a hair on their heads. You may not like the response.

lol, you Americans are too greedy to send anything to Ukraine which costs more than a hundred bucks

I don't want to get you scared, it is just my concern speaks in me that when you get your ass kicked you may start behaving even more inadequate than you do now
Nuclear war is a real possibility, Russia invests in nuclear weapons not to allow our defeat, one must think with his ass not to understand it and after discussions here I tend to think there is no such understanding in America.

I foresee your future screams when we take Kiev as a result of Ukrainian military adventures which the US encourages. Ukraine is moving heavy weapons to Donbass, without US direct approval or order they would not dare to start a war with Russia.

newsflash, Ivan. Ukraine doesn't need the USes permission to kick your sorry butts out of Ukraine. Sorry, but your buddy Rump ain't in office anymore. You'll have to groom another one and that takes years and decades.

No, sleepy Joe is absolutely fine
he can do more for collapse of the US than Brezhnev did for collapse of USSR
as aproverb says - every country has that leader which it deserves

You have 5-10 years till collapse of the US....



as for Ukraine, if left without 7/24 Russian governance if fails in everything. It's a failed state, and will disintegrate into becoming a Russian province...

And what does that have to do with the F-35? If you see F-35s over Ukraine, the game is on. Maybe Poland may bring theirs when they get them. The Balkan Nations can't afford for the Ukraine to fall to Russia. And it's pretty well known that some of the EU fighters will stack up against everything you Russians can throw at them. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the EU were to equip Ukraine with some of them. But if Poland does a defense agreement with Ukraine, they are next in procuring the F-35A along with the Aim120D and Aim9X. And Ukraine has at least one AWACs equal to the Russians. There are also NATO AWACs patroling the Ukrainian border as well. Sorry, no sneaky, sneaky attacks in the air. Remember, Russia only has 50 SU-35s in the inventory. Do if they wish to field a decent force, about 30 SU-35s are going to be usable. The bulk are going to be SU-30/33/27, Mig29s.

if Poland get's involved, it may include a few F-35As. And the US has a ton of F-15C/16Cs in storage that they would sell on the cheap. The US is taking many of the F-16Cs our of service that are perfectly good birds with the newest upgrades just short of the V. With the F-15EX coming online, there are going to be a bunch of F-15Cs and Es that could be had for a song and a dance for Ukraine. Ukraine has already stated they are switching to Western Fighters as quickly as they can.

Unfortunately, Ukraine has a dismal Military Air since 2014. But they have battle hardened and experienced pilots. What they lack are fighters. And that can be corrected in a matter of a year by the EU and the Balkan Nations and US Surplus.

lol, Ukrainian battle hardened and experienced pilots
One of the biggest problems of America, of its people and even ruling elite is that all they believe in dumb American propaganda.

Ukraine has money neither for new fighters nor even for fuel, their pilots fly 10 hours a year, bombers were used a couple of times in the very beginning of the conflict against civilian targets, but after a Ukrainian pilot Voloshin allegedly shot down a Malaisian civilian Boeing Ukraine stopped using military aicraft at all. Voloshin later committed suicide, or was asked to commit suicide by Ukrainian regime, but now we don't have a witness and the West blames Russia.

All planes the US gives to Ukraine in case of Ukraine-Russia war will be immediately shot down by S-300-350-400 or destroyed on the ground by Iskander. No Russian fighters will be even needed.

 

[Siberian]

If the Russians (as some of thr

End results; US losses in Conus of about 85%, Russian losses at almost 95%. We go back to the 1800s while you go back to the stone age. Our factories are scattered across the nation while yours are in primary large clumps of population.

You forgot about China, India or even EU. All-out war between the USA and Russia will make them happy heirs of the whole world.

There will be NO Nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. It's doomsday scenario. And if you are trying to scare the sheep of the Party of the Rumpers, us old Military People know better. You fear it more than we do. If you don't, you should.

Sure, there will be nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. Especially if Administration don't believe it, too. It's how the detterence works.
And no, it's not doomsday scenario. First of all - a counter force strike. When more than 80% of the defenders nuclear forces are destroyed - postattack blackmail. Then - negotiations, or protracted war, or total annihilation of the unlucky defender. Yes, it will be a catastrophe, but, definitely not a doomsday.

I've seen the programmed results of the first strike from both sides and then the second attack (there is no 3rd attack possible). Both sides use the Triad where you have zero chance of taking all sides of the Triad out during the initial attack. And what good does it do attacking sites already launched? But you have no choice since the failure rate will leave some missiles in the silos that couldn't initially be fired but can be repaired very quickly. So that requires both sides to have reserve ICMBs. Sometimes by design sometimes by faults.

The damage won't be from just the blast areas. The Fallout will make you wished you were in the blast area. But think of this, the after affects cures the Global Warming since instead of the gradual temp increase, you get a very fast temp decrease. In the United States, it renders the Grain Belt to what the Canadian Farm Lands are today. But the southern regions get more rain and cooler temps and in a couple of years become the new Grain Belt. Mexico actually benefits from it. But Brazil and Argentina gets murdered by it.

But Russia doesn't have a northern Grain Belt. It has a southern grain belt, a small one and it loses the high production there while China gets one hell of a boost.

AS for Factories, China doesn't get that affected but their population will die from the crap in the air. So they will have to take measures for that. But the factory may be taken out just by not having enough resources and people to keep it open. The US will lose probably around 25% of our Factories but the rest will be left unharmed since our factories and industries are spread. Russia has their industries, like their population centers, clustered so they will lost closer to 85% of their Factories and Manufacturing ability and have almost a 95% civilian loss rate versus the US loss rate of less than 85%.

You think it's cold in Siberian now?

Only an insane Sillyvillian believes anyone can win a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US. The Entire world loses. Of course, it helps if you are already in the Stone Age, but move over, you are going to get a lot of visitors.

First of all, there is no choice between war and peace (from the Russian point of view) in your scenario. There is the choice between "uncontrolled escalation" (leading to a regional war and then to all-out nuclear war, may be at the moment choosen by the Americans), and "preemptive strike" (at the moment choosen by the Russians).
There are three main goals of any government in a war:
1) protect its citizens;
2) punish the enemy;
3) to win the war and the further peace.

Most important, of course, is the first goal. Therefore, the first strike must be counterforce one. And there are rather reliable ways to kill near 80% of the nuclear arsenal by the first sudden strike.
Also, there are ways to intercept warheads, cruise missiles and planes with bombs.
Then, there are ways to decrease consequences of the nuclear exchange. For example, Russia has Ukraine and the whole Europe to take food from.
Nobody cares about the world. Actually, there is no any working climate models, both "Global warming" and "Nuclear winter" are nothing but poor pseudoscientic speculations. Anyway, winner will have resources of the whole world to deal with any problems, and loser will be dead.
Fallouts may be a problem but not catastrophic. Both Russia and the USA have more than enough lands to evacuate people.

How many factories will survive in Russia and the USA depends on their ability to prevent "free raids" by strategic (and medium) bombers with nuclear CMs and bombs. And for this ability (returning to discussion about F-35) sides need big amount of relatively cheap fighters and interceptors with long range air-to-air missiles. China will sell to Russians J-16 (or, may be, J-20) with PL-21, and may be, will help them to restore production of Su-35, MiG-31, Su-57 with a number of different types of AAMs, and what will sell the EU to the USA? Eurofighters with "MBDA Meteor"?

in Russia-US direct nuclear war both will be losers, China will be a winner.
Thus the only realistic scenario is a war in 3d countries, most probably in Europe.
Ukraine, Eastern Europe as battleground with nuckear stikes against Western Europe, except France and UK.

I don't believe the US is eager to be nuked so no obligations to its NATO allies will be fulfilled.

Just invade a NATO country and find out. Putin is much more cautious on that one.

As I said, forces of NATO:Russia are 4,5-6-9 (I met different estimates) : 1

Obviously Russia is not going to invade NATO, it would be insane. Such fearmongering is nothing but Western propaganda to justify own agression.

everything is opposite, the US is building bases on Russian borders and it is NATO which is going to invade Russia if or when, as Washington hopes, Western sanctions lead to destabilisation of domestic situation in Russia or if/when US puppets like Georgia or Ukraine succeed in dragging Russia into a regional war.

in this case, if NATO prevails in the field with conventional weapons - Russia may use nukes first against Western forces, then against US bases in Eastern Europe, then against NATO European cities, and only the last phase is direct nuclear exchange with the US, if nothing of previous measures stops you.

And it's the policy of the US, if Russia or any other country uses even one Nuke, let the Nukes start flying. It ends up being the first and last option. And both sides know it. NO NUKES will be used by either side. Yah, I know, the 1980s plan by the Soviets were to nuke select targets in Europe but that plan is no longer sane. Ignite one Nuke on ANY Nato country and the big one happens.

Just read Russian military doctrine, the part about definitions.

Военная доктрина Российской Федерации

Новости, стенограммы, фото и видеозаписи, документы, подписанные Президентом России, информация о деятельности Администрации

www.kremlin.ru

---------------------
f) local war – a war between two or more states, pursuing limited military and political goals, in which military operations are conducted within the borders of the opposing states and which mainly affects the interests of only these states (territorial, economic, political and other);
g) regional war – a war involving two or more States of the same region, waged by national or coalition armed forces using both conventional and nuclear weapons, on the territory of the region with its adjacent waters and in the air (space) space above it, during which the parties will pursue important military and political goals;
h) large-scale war – a war between coalitions of states or the largest states of the world community, in which the parties will pursue radical military and political goals. A large-scale war can be the result of an escalation of an armed conflict, a local or regional war involving a significant number of States from different regions of the world. It will require the mobilization of all available material resources and spiritual forces of the participating States;
---------------------------------
The very definition of the term "Regional war" means limited usage of the nuclear weapon.

No it doesn't. By your definition of "Regional War" you would use Nukes against Ukraine when the start to kick your butts out of their country. And I give the Russian Military Leaders more credit than that.

By the Russian definition, Russia is not a side of the "Ukrainian Civil War" at all. But even when Russia will join this conflict, and, say, retake Kiev, it will be a "local war". It will be a "regional war" if other European (but not American) countries join this conflict, and then, Russia, highly likely, will use nukes.

Are you trying to make us all askeered of the teddy bear? Like I said, we don't have to fight Ukraines battles. They know how to fight. But we are obligated to get first line equipment into their hands along with training to do the fighting. And there are only two birds we won't send them and that will be the F-22 and F-35. But nothing stops us from sending in the latest F-18/16 and F-15EX which are more than a match for anything in quantity that Russia has to offer.

Keep that in mind, Ivan.

And if we do send in advisors and trainer make damn sure you don't harm a hair on their heads. You may not like the response.

lol, you Americans are too greedy to send anything to Ukraine which costs more than a hundred bucks

I don't want to get you scared, it is just my concern speaks in me that when you get your ass kicked you may start behaving even more inadequate than you do now
Nuclear war is a real possibility, Russia invests in nuclear weapons not to allow our defeat, one must think with his ass not to understand it and after discussions here I tend to think there is no such understanding in America.

I foresee your future screams when we take Kiev as a result of Ukrainian military adventures which the US encourages. Ukraine is moving heavy weapons to Donbass, without US direct approval or order they would not dare to start a war with Russia.

newsflash, Ivan. Ukraine doesn't need the USes permission to kick your sorry butts out of Ukraine. Sorry, but your buddy Rump ain't in office anymore. You'll have to groom another one and that takes years and decades.

No, sleepy Joe is absolutely fine
he can do more for collapse of the US than Brezhnev did for collapse of USSR
as aproverb says - every country has that leader which it deserves

You have 5-10 years till collapse of the US....



as for Ukraine, if left without 7/24 Russian governance if fails in everything. It's a failed state, and will disintegrate into becoming a Russian province...

And what does that have to do with the F-35? If you see F-35s over Ukraine, the game is on. Maybe Poland may bring theirs when they get them. The Balkan Nations can't afford for the Ukraine to fall to Russia. And it's pretty well known that some of the EU fighters will stack up against everything you Russians can throw at them. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the EU were to equip Ukraine with some of them. But if Poland does a defense agreement with Ukraine, they are next in procuring the F-35A along with the Aim120D and Aim9X. And Ukraine has at least one AWACs equal to the Russians. There are also NATO AWACs patroling the Ukrainian border as well. Sorry, no sneaky, sneaky attacks in the air. Remember, Russia only has 50 SU-35s in the inventory. Do if they wish to field a decent force, about 30 SU-35s are going to be usable. The bulk are going to be SU-30/33/27, Mig29s.

if Poland get's involved, it may include a few F-35As. And the US has a ton of F-15C/16Cs in storage that they would sell on the cheap. The US is taking many of the F-16Cs our of service that are perfectly good birds with the newest upgrades just short of the V. With the F-15EX coming online, there are going to be a bunch of F-15Cs and Es that could be had for a song and a dance for Ukraine. Ukraine has already stated they are switching to Western Fighters as quickly as they can.

Unfortunately, Ukraine has a dismal Military Air since 2014. But they have battle hardened and experienced pilots. What they lack are fighters. And that can be corrected in a matter of a year by the EU and the Balkan Nations and US Surplus.

If Poland get involved, it will take only 5 days to finish it's existence, according their own command stuff exercises.

"The war is lost in 5 days": the exercises of the Polish army "Winter-20" ended in complete failure

The Zima-20 command-staff exercises were held in Poland, but their results were extremely sad for the Polish military. Combat simulation even included new weapons systems ordered by Poland but not yet delivered, such as Patriot air defense systems, HIMARS MLRS and F-35 fighters, writes the Polish

en.topcor.ru

"The war is lost in 5 days": the exercises of the Polish army "Winter-20" ended in complete failure
February 2 2021

The Zima-20 command-staff exercise was held in Poland, but its results were extremely sad for the Polish military. The simulation of military operations even included new weapons systems ordered by Poland, but not yet delivered, such as Patriot air defense systems, MLRS HIMARS and F-35 fighters, writes the Polish portal Onet, citing a number of media outlets in their country.

According to the Polish Internet edition Interia, several thousand officers took part in the exercise. During the simulation, literally everything was taken into account. Even a reformed system of military command and control was used. But the exercises ended not only in complete failure, but in a gigantic disaster. The Polish Armed Forces were defeated in a very short time and ceased to exist.

The war is lost in 5 days

- stated in Interia.

The portal clarified that the fierce defense on the eastern front led to the defeat of military units and huge losses among the military personnel. On the fifth day the enemy reached the Vistula line, but Poland no longer had an army to defend it.

The battles for Warsaw were still going on, but the ports were already either blocked or captured by the enemy. The aviation and navy no longer existed as a branch of the armed forces. The ground forces lost 60-80 percent of their personnel. The exercise caused real confusion in the ranks of the military.

In turn, the Polish tabloid Super Express provided additional information, referring to its informants. Initially, the Polish Armed Forces planned to hold the defense for 22 days before the arrival of reinforcements in the form of forces of NATO allies. However, on the fourth day Warsaw was surrounded, and the enemy was advancing westward. Everything went completely wrong as planned by the Polish military leaders. Moreover, the commanders of some units were shocked by the assigned tasks and refused to complete them.

The head of state Andrzej Duda and the head of the military department Mariusz Blaszak were familiarized with the results of the exercises. At the same time, the office of the President of Poland and the Ministry of National Defense refused to comment on the above information, citing secrecy, the Polish media summed up.

I would not trust NATO with such results, it's notging but a form of fearmongering, "Russisns are coming", to boost military spending and put more US bases on Polish-Russian border. .

 

[Vrenn]

If the Russians (as some of thr

End results; US losses in Conus of about 85%, Russian losses at almost 95%. We go back to the 1800s while you go back to the stone age. Our factories are scattered across the nation while yours are in primary large clumps of population.

You forgot about China, India or even EU. All-out war between the USA and Russia will make them happy heirs of the whole world.

There will be NO Nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. It's doomsday scenario. And if you are trying to scare the sheep of the Party of the Rumpers, us old Military People know better. You fear it more than we do. If you don't, you should.

Sure, there will be nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. Especially if Administration don't believe it, too. It's how the detterence works.
And no, it's not doomsday scenario. First of all - a counter force strike. When more than 80% of the defenders nuclear forces are destroyed - postattack blackmail. Then - negotiations, or protracted war, or total annihilation of the unlucky defender. Yes, it will be a catastrophe, but, definitely not a doomsday.

I've seen the programmed results of the first strike from both sides and then the second attack (there is no 3rd attack possible). Both sides use the Triad where you have zero chance of taking all sides of the Triad out during the initial attack. And what good does it do attacking sites already launched? But you have no choice since the failure rate will leave some missiles in the silos that couldn't initially be fired but can be repaired very quickly. So that requires both sides to have reserve ICMBs. Sometimes by design sometimes by faults.

The damage won't be from just the blast areas. The Fallout will make you wished you were in the blast area. But think of this, the after affects cures the Global Warming since instead of the gradual temp increase, you get a very fast temp decrease. In the United States, it renders the Grain Belt to what the Canadian Farm Lands are today. But the southern regions get more rain and cooler temps and in a couple of years become the new Grain Belt. Mexico actually benefits from it. But Brazil and Argentina gets murdered by it.

But Russia doesn't have a northern Grain Belt. It has a southern grain belt, a small one and it loses the high production there while China gets one hell of a boost.

AS for Factories, China doesn't get that affected but their population will die from the crap in the air. So they will have to take measures for that. But the factory may be taken out just by not having enough resources and people to keep it open. The US will lose probably around 25% of our Factories but the rest will be left unharmed since our factories and industries are spread. Russia has their industries, like their population centers, clustered so they will lost closer to 85% of their Factories and Manufacturing ability and have almost a 95% civilian loss rate versus the US loss rate of less than 85%.

You think it's cold in Siberian now?

Only an insane Sillyvillian believes anyone can win a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US. The Entire world loses. Of course, it helps if you are already in the Stone Age, but move over, you are going to get a lot of visitors.

First of all, there is no choice between war and peace (from the Russian point of view) in your scenario. There is the choice between "uncontrolled escalation" (leading to a regional war and then to all-out nuclear war, may be at the moment choosen by the Americans), and "preemptive strike" (at the moment choosen by the Russians).
There are three main goals of any government in a war:
1) protect its citizens;
2) punish the enemy;
3) to win the war and the further peace.

Most important, of course, is the first goal. Therefore, the first strike must be counterforce one. And there are rather reliable ways to kill near 80% of the nuclear arsenal by the first sudden strike.
Also, there are ways to intercept warheads, cruise missiles and planes with bombs.
Then, there are ways to decrease consequences of the nuclear exchange. For example, Russia has Ukraine and the whole Europe to take food from.
Nobody cares about the world. Actually, there is no any working climate models, both "Global warming" and "Nuclear winter" are nothing but poor pseudoscientic speculations. Anyway, winner will have resources of the whole world to deal with any problems, and loser will be dead.
Fallouts may be a problem but not catastrophic. Both Russia and the USA have more than enough lands to evacuate people.

How many factories will survive in Russia and the USA depends on their ability to prevent "free raids" by strategic (and medium) bombers with nuclear CMs and bombs. And for this ability (returning to discussion about F-35) sides need big amount of relatively cheap fighters and interceptors with long range air-to-air missiles. China will sell to Russians J-16 (or, may be, J-20) with PL-21, and may be, will help them to restore production of Su-35, MiG-31, Su-57 with a number of different types of AAMs, and what will sell the EU to the USA? Eurofighters with "MBDA Meteor"?

in Russia-US direct nuclear war both will be losers, China will be a winner.
Thus the only realistic scenario is a war in 3d countries, most probably in Europe.
Ukraine, Eastern Europe as battleground with nuckear stikes against Western Europe, except France and UK.

I don't believe the US is eager to be nuked so no obligations to its NATO allies will be fulfilled.

Just invade a NATO country and find out. Putin is much more cautious on that one.

The Estonians, and Latvians are scared to death right now. The last time pootin invaded a country The obummer/xiden administration whistled Dixie.

They know the same thing will happen to them.

Biden ain't Obama and Ukraine is the line.

 

[Siberian]

If the Russians (as some of thr

End results; US losses in Conus of about 85%, Russian losses at almost 95%. We go back to the 1800s while you go back to the stone age. Our factories are scattered across the nation while yours are in primary large clumps of population.

You forgot about China, India or even EU. All-out war between the USA and Russia will make them happy heirs of the whole world.

There will be NO Nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. It's doomsday scenario. And if you are trying to scare the sheep of the Party of the Rumpers, us old Military People know better. You fear it more than we do. If you don't, you should.

Sure, there will be nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. Especially if Administration don't believe it, too. It's how the detterence works.
And no, it's not doomsday scenario. First of all - a counter force strike. When more than 80% of the defenders nuclear forces are destroyed - postattack blackmail. Then - negotiations, or protracted war, or total annihilation of the unlucky defender. Yes, it will be a catastrophe, but, definitely not a doomsday.

I've seen the programmed results of the first strike from both sides and then the second attack (there is no 3rd attack possible). Both sides use the Triad where you have zero chance of taking all sides of the Triad out during the initial attack. And what good does it do attacking sites already launched? But you have no choice since the failure rate will leave some missiles in the silos that couldn't initially be fired but can be repaired very quickly. So that requires both sides to have reserve ICMBs. Sometimes by design sometimes by faults.

The damage won't be from just the blast areas. The Fallout will make you wished you were in the blast area. But think of this, the after affects cures the Global Warming since instead of the gradual temp increase, you get a very fast temp decrease. In the United States, it renders the Grain Belt to what the Canadian Farm Lands are today. But the southern regions get more rain and cooler temps and in a couple of years become the new Grain Belt. Mexico actually benefits from it. But Brazil and Argentina gets murdered by it.

But Russia doesn't have a northern Grain Belt. It has a southern grain belt, a small one and it loses the high production there while China gets one hell of a boost.

AS for Factories, China doesn't get that affected but their population will die from the crap in the air. So they will have to take measures for that. But the factory may be taken out just by not having enough resources and people to keep it open. The US will lose probably around 25% of our Factories but the rest will be left unharmed since our factories and industries are spread. Russia has their industries, like their population centers, clustered so they will lost closer to 85% of their Factories and Manufacturing ability and have almost a 95% civilian loss rate versus the US loss rate of less than 85%.

You think it's cold in Siberian now?

Only an insane Sillyvillian believes anyone can win a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US. The Entire world loses. Of course, it helps if you are already in the Stone Age, but move over, you are going to get a lot of visitors.

First of all, there is no choice between war and peace (from the Russian point of view) in your scenario. There is the choice between "uncontrolled escalation" (leading to a regional war and then to all-out nuclear war, may be at the moment choosen by the Americans), and "preemptive strike" (at the moment choosen by the Russians).
There are three main goals of any government in a war:
1) protect its citizens;
2) punish the enemy;
3) to win the war and the further peace.

Most important, of course, is the first goal. Therefore, the first strike must be counterforce one. And there are rather reliable ways to kill near 80% of the nuclear arsenal by the first sudden strike.
Also, there are ways to intercept warheads, cruise missiles and planes with bombs.
Then, there are ways to decrease consequences of the nuclear exchange. For example, Russia has Ukraine and the whole Europe to take food from.
Nobody cares about the world. Actually, there is no any working climate models, both "Global warming" and "Nuclear winter" are nothing but poor pseudoscientic speculations. Anyway, winner will have resources of the whole world to deal with any problems, and loser will be dead.
Fallouts may be a problem but not catastrophic. Both Russia and the USA have more than enough lands to evacuate people.

How many factories will survive in Russia and the USA depends on their ability to prevent "free raids" by strategic (and medium) bombers with nuclear CMs and bombs. And for this ability (returning to discussion about F-35) sides need big amount of relatively cheap fighters and interceptors with long range air-to-air missiles. China will sell to Russians J-16 (or, may be, J-20) with PL-21, and may be, will help them to restore production of Su-35, MiG-31, Su-57 with a number of different types of AAMs, and what will sell the EU to the USA? Eurofighters with "MBDA Meteor"?

in Russia-US direct nuclear war both will be losers, China will be a winner.
Thus the only realistic scenario is a war in 3d countries, most probably in Europe.
Ukraine, Eastern Europe as battleground with nuckear stikes against Western Europe, except France and UK.

I don't believe the US is eager to be nuked so no obligations to its NATO allies will be fulfilled.

Just invade a NATO country and find out. Putin is much more cautious on that one.

The Estonians, and Latvians are scared to death right now. The last time pootin invaded a country The obummer/xiden administration whistled Dixie.

They know the same thing will happen to them.

Biden ain't Obama and Ukraine is the line.

red line? whose red line? and what will the US do? fight till the last Ukrainian?
1/3 of Ukrainian army will side with us and fight you, 1/3 will run and the rest will be captured, ninus losses...

 

[Dayton3]

The U.S. will destroy Russia eventually. Destroying most of their conventional military, eliminating their nuclear arsenal and seizing half their territory, permanently.

The U.S. becomes the largest nation on Earth thereafter.

It's the only way the world will know peace.

lol, Napoleon failed, Hitler failed and here sleepy Joe comes, the conquestor...

the US will disintegrate in 5-10 years via civil/racial war. Whites wil be minority in 15-20 years, but even now colored people constitute majority in ages up to 30 y. o. Whites are old and sit at their TVs while young minorities - like BLM - make history.

When the Ponzi scheme - which US Debt is - crumbles - US economy will crash, depriving peope of savings and any means for living, it will lead people to the streets and will start civil war.

All Russia and China have go do is to wait these 10 years, and to successfully prevent nuclear war, since a cornered rat, which the US is, may start it.
This is the main task - not to allow to America to destroy the World on its way to hell.

Not a word of that is the least bit true. And who cares about Joe Biden? He won't be around in 2030 or 2040. Perhaps not even that long.

 

[Dayton3]

If the Russians (as some of thr

End results; US losses in Conus of about 85%, Russian losses at almost 95%. We go back to the 1800s while you go back to the stone age. Our factories are scattered across the nation while yours are in primary large clumps of population.

You forgot about China, India or even EU. All-out war between the USA and Russia will make them happy heirs of the whole world.

There will be NO Nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. It's doomsday scenario. And if you are trying to scare the sheep of the Party of the Rumpers, us old Military People know better. You fear it more than we do. If you don't, you should.

Sure, there will be nuclear exchange between the US and Russia. Especially if Administration don't believe it, too. It's how the detterence works.
And no, it's not doomsday scenario. First of all - a counter force strike. When more than 80% of the defenders nuclear forces are destroyed - postattack blackmail. Then - negotiations, or protracted war, or total annihilation of the unlucky defender. Yes, it will be a catastrophe, but, definitely not a doomsday.

I've seen the programmed results of the first strike from both sides and then the second attack (there is no 3rd attack possible). Both sides use the Triad where you have zero chance of taking all sides of the Triad out during the initial attack. And what good does it do attacking sites already launched? But you have no choice since the failure rate will leave some missiles in the silos that couldn't initially be fired but can be repaired very quickly. So that requires both sides to have reserve ICMBs. Sometimes by design sometimes by faults.

The damage won't be from just the blast areas. The Fallout will make you wished you were in the blast area. But think of this, the after affects cures the Global Warming since instead of the gradual temp increase, you get a very fast temp decrease. In the United States, it renders the Grain Belt to what the Canadian Farm Lands are today. But the southern regions get more rain and cooler temps and in a couple of years become the new Grain Belt. Mexico actually benefits from it. But Brazil and Argentina gets murdered by it.

But Russia doesn't have a northern Grain Belt. It has a southern grain belt, a small one and it loses the high production there while China gets one hell of a boost.

AS for Factories, China doesn't get that affected but their population will die from the crap in the air. So they will have to take measures for that. But the factory may be taken out just by not having enough resources and people to keep it open. The US will lose probably around 25% of our Factories but the rest will be left unharmed since our factories and industries are spread. Russia has their industries, like their population centers, clustered so they will lost closer to 85% of their Factories and Manufacturing ability and have almost a 95% civilian loss rate versus the US loss rate of less than 85%.

You think it's cold in Siberian now?

Only an insane Sillyvillian believes anyone can win a nuclear exchange between Russia and the US. The Entire world loses. Of course, it helps if you are already in the Stone Age, but move over, you are going to get a lot of visitors.

First of all, there is no choice between war and peace (from the Russian point of view) in your scenario. There is the choice between "uncontrolled escalation" (leading to a regional war and then to all-out nuclear war, may be at the moment choosen by the Americans), and "preemptive strike" (at the moment choosen by the Russians).
There are three main goals of any government in a war:
1) protect its citizens;
2) punish the enemy;
3) to win the war and the further peace.

Most important, of course, is the first goal. Therefore, the first strike must be counterforce one. And there are rather reliable ways to kill near 80% of the nuclear arsenal by the first sudden strike.
Also, there are ways to intercept warheads, cruise missiles and planes with bombs.
Then, there are ways to decrease consequences of the nuclear exchange. For example, Russia has Ukraine and the whole Europe to take food from.
Nobody cares about the world. Actually, there is no any working climate models, both "Global warming" and "Nuclear winter" are nothing but poor pseudoscientic speculations. Anyway, winner will have resources of the whole world to deal with any problems, and loser will be dead.
Fallouts may be a problem but not catastrophic. Both Russia and the USA have more than enough lands to evacuate people.

How many factories will survive in Russia and the USA depends on their ability to prevent "free raids" by strategic (and medium) bombers with nuclear CMs and bombs. And for this ability (returning to discussion about F-35) sides need big amount of relatively cheap fighters and interceptors with long range air-to-air missiles. China will sell to Russians J-16 (or, may be, J-20) with PL-21, and may be, will help them to restore production of Su-35, MiG-31, Su-57 with a number of different types of AAMs, and what will sell the EU to the USA? Eurofighters with "MBDA Meteor"?

in Russia-US direct nuclear war both will be losers, China will be a winner.
Thus the only realistic scenario is a war in 3d countries, most probably in Europe.
Ukraine, Eastern Europe as battleground with nuckear stikes against Western Europe, except France and UK.

I don't believe the US is eager to be nuked so no obligations to its NATO allies will be fulfilled.

Just invade a NATO country and find out. Putin is much more cautious on that one.

As I said, forces of NATO:Russia are 4,5-6-9 (I met different estimates) : 1

Obviously Russia is not going to invade NATO, it would be insane. Such fearmongering is nothing but Western propaganda to justify own agression.

everything is opposite, the US is building bases on Russian borders and it is NATO which is going to invade Russia if or when, as Washington hopes, Western sanctions lead to destabilisation of domestic situation in Russia or if/when US puppets like Georgia or Ukraine succeed in dragging Russia into a regional war.

in this case, if NATO prevails in the field with conventional weapons - Russia may use nukes first against Western forces, then against US bases in Eastern Europe, then against NATO European cities, and only the last phase is direct nuclear exchange with the US, if nothing of previous measures stops you.

And it's the policy of the US, if Russia or any other country uses even one Nuke, let the Nukes start flying. It ends up being the first and last option. And both sides know it. NO NUKES will be used by either side. Yah, I know, the 1980s plan by the Soviets were to nuke select targets in Europe but that plan is no longer sane. Ignite one Nuke on ANY Nato country and the big one happens.

Just read Russian military doctrine, the part about definitions.

Военная доктрина Российской Федерации

Новости, стенограммы, фото и видеозаписи, документы, подписанные Президентом России, информация о деятельности Администрации

www.kremlin.ru

---------------------
f) local war – a war between two or more states, pursuing limited military and political goals, in which military operations are conducted within the borders of the opposing states and which mainly affects the interests of only these states (territorial, economic, political and other);
g) regional war – a war involving two or more States of the same region, waged by national or coalition armed forces using both conventional and nuclear weapons, on the territory of the region with its adjacent waters and in the air (space) space above it, during which the parties will pursue important military and political goals;
h) large-scale war – a war between coalitions of states or the largest states of the world community, in which the parties will pursue radical military and political goals. A large-scale war can be the result of an escalation of an armed conflict, a local or regional war involving a significant number of States from different regions of the world. It will require the mobilization of all available material resources and spiritual forces of the participating States;
---------------------------------
The very definition of the term "Regional war" means limited usage of the nuclear weapon.

No it doesn't. By your definition of "Regional War" you would use Nukes against Ukraine when the start to kick your butts out of their country. And I give the Russian Military Leaders more credit than that.

By the Russian definition, Russia is not a side of the "Ukrainian Civil War" at all. But even when Russia will join this conflict, and, say, retake Kiev, it will be a "local war". It will be a "regional war" if other European (but not American) countries join this conflict, and then, Russia, highly likely, will use nukes.

Are you trying to make us all askeered of the teddy bear? Like I said, we don't have to fight Ukraines battles. They know how to fight. But we are obligated to get first line equipment into their hands along with training to do the fighting. And there are only two birds we won't send them and that will be the F-22 and F-35. But nothing stops us from sending in the latest F-18/16 and F-15EX which are more than a match for anything in quantity that Russia has to offer.

Keep that in mind, Ivan.

And if we do send in advisors and trainer make damn sure you don't harm a hair on their heads. You may not like the response.

lol, you Americans are too greedy to send anything to Ukraine which costs more than a hundred bucks

I don't want to get you scared, it is just my concern speaks in me that when you get your ass kicked you may start behaving even more inadequate than you do now
Nuclear war is a real possibility, Russia invests in nuclear weapons not to allow our defeat, one must think with his ass not to understand it and after discussions here I tend to think there is no such understanding in America.

I foresee your future screams when we take Kiev as a result of Ukrainian military adventures which the US encourages. Ukraine is moving heavy weapons to Donbass, without US direct approval or order they would not dare to start a war with Russia.

newsflash, Ivan. Ukraine doesn't need the USes permission to kick your sorry butts out of Ukraine. Sorry, but your buddy Rump ain't in office anymore. You'll have to groom another one and that takes years and decades.

No, sleepy Joe is absolutely fine
he can do more for collapse of the US than Brezhnev did for collapse of USSR
as aproverb says - every country has that leader which it deserves

You have 5-10 years till collapse of the US....



as for Ukraine, if left without 7/24 Russian governance if fails in everything. It's a failed state, and will disintegrate into becoming a Russian province...

And what does that have to do with the F-35? If you see F-35s over Ukraine, the game is on. Maybe Poland may bring theirs when they get them. The Balkan Nations can't afford for the Ukraine to fall to Russia. And it's pretty well known that some of the EU fighters will stack up against everything you Russians can throw at them. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if the EU were to equip Ukraine with some of them. But if Poland does a defense agreement with Ukraine, they are next in procuring the F-35A along with the Aim120D and Aim9X. And Ukraine has at least one AWACs equal to the Russians. There are also NATO AWACs patroling the Ukrainian border as well. Sorry, no sneaky, sneaky attacks in the air. Remember, Russia only has 50 SU-35s in the inventory. Do if they wish to field a decent force, about 30 SU-35s are going to be usable. The bulk are going to be SU-30/33/27, Mig29s.

if Poland get's involved, it may include a few F-35As. And the US has a ton of F-15C/16Cs in storage that they would sell on the cheap. The US is taking many of the F-16Cs our of service that are perfectly good birds with the newest upgrades just short of the V. With the F-15EX coming online, there are going to be a bunch of F-15Cs and Es that could be had for a song and a dance for Ukraine. Ukraine has already stated they are switching to Western Fighters as quickly as they can.

Unfortunately, Ukraine has a dismal Military Air since 2014. But they have battle hardened and experienced pilots. What they lack are fighters. And that can be corrected in a matter of a year by the EU and the Balkan Nations and US Surplus.

lol, Ukrainian battle hardened and experienced pilots
One of the biggest problems of America, of its people and even ruling elite is that all they believe in dumb American propaganda.

Ukraine has money neither for new fighters nor even for fuel, their pilots fly 10 hours a year, bombers were used a couple of times in the very beginning of the conflict against civilian targets, but after a Ukrainian pilot Voloshin allegedly shot down a Malaisian civilian Boeing Ukraine stopped using military aicraft at all. Voloshin later committed suicide, or was asked to commit suicide by Ukrainian regime, but now we don't have a witness and the West blames Russia.

All planes the US gives to Ukraine in case of Ukraine-Russia war will be immediately shot down by S-300-350-400 or destroyed on the ground by Iskander. No Russian fighters will be even needed.

The Russians vaunted SAM systems are not world beaters. And using nuclear weapons would be suicide by the Russians. Something they dare not contemplate if they really want to save the Rodina.

 

[Siberian]

The U.S. will destroy Russia eventually. Destroying most of their conventional military, eliminating their nuclear arsenal and seizing half their territory, permanently.

The U.S. becomes the largest nation on Earth thereafter.

It's the only way the world will know peace.

lol, Napoleon failed, Hitler failed and here sleepy Joe comes, the conquestor...

the US will disintegrate in 5-10 years via civil/racial war. Whites wil be minority in 15-20 years, but even now colored people constitute majority in ages up to 30 y. o. Whites are old and sit at their TVs while young minorities - like BLM - make history.

When the Ponzi scheme - which US Debt is - crumbles - US economy will crash, depriving peope of savings and any means for living, it will lead people to the streets and will start civil war.

All Russia and China have go do is to wait these 10 years, and to successfully prevent nuclear war, since a cornered rat, which the US is, may start it.
This is the main task - not to allow to America to destroy the World on its way to hell.

Not a word of that is the least bit true. And who cares about Joe Biden? He won't be around in 2030 or 2040. Perhaps not even that long.

what is not true?
that you have unsustainable debt of more than 100% of GDP?
that you have budget deficite of >50%?
or that the Fed has to print money like crazy, with ecceleration, every time multiplying number of trillions...

you are just 2 steps from becoming another Venezuela, wiyh that difference that you also have racial crisis and warm civil war in which people die already...