extreme weather

Old Rocks

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Oct 31, 2008
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Extreme Weather Caused By Global Warming Is Going To Worsen, Scientists Say

A draft summary of an international scientific report obtained by The Associated Press says the extremes caused by global warming could eventually grow so severe that some locations become "increasingly marginal as places to live."

The report from the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change marks a change in climate science, from focusing on subtle shifts in average temperatures to concentrating on the harder-to-analyze freak events that grab headlines, hurt economies and kill people.

"The extremes are a really noticeable aspect of climate change," said Jerry Meehl, senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. "I think people realize that the extremes are where we are going to see a lot of the impacts of climate change."
 
Extreme Weather Caused By Global Warming Is Going To Worsen, Scientists Say

A draft summary of an international scientific report obtained by The Associated Press says the extremes caused by global warming could eventually grow so severe that some locations become "increasingly marginal as places to live."

The report from the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change marks a change in climate science, from focusing on subtle shifts in average temperatures to concentrating on the harder-to-analyze freak events that grab headlines, hurt economies and kill people.

"The extremes are a really noticeable aspect of climate change," said Jerry Meehl, senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. "I think people realize that the extremes are where we are going to see a lot of the impacts of climate change."

Anyone who swallows the pap the thuroughly discredited IPCC pumps out is beyond gullible.

Global Warming Hoax: Prominent NOAA Scientist Changes His Mind On Hurricanes

Prominent NOAA Scientist Changes His Mind On Hurricanes
Admin, Monday 19 May 2008 - 16:46:43 // comment: 6 // printer friendly // Font Size - Increase / Decrease / Reset

NOAA Research meteorologist Tom Knutson now says that global warming, and its newer more encompassing cousin "climate change", are not to blame for increased numbers of hurricanes.

"A new model simulation of Atlantic hurricane activity for the last two decades of this century projects fewer hurricanes overall, but a slight increase in intensity for hurricanes that do occur." -- Science Daily

"This new study suggests that in the Atlantic basin, global warming from increasing greenhouse gases will have little impact, or perhaps cause some decrease, in tropical storm and hurricane numbers."

Reading through some of Tom Knutson's previous work he has noted that their models had problems predicting past hurricane seasons - "the North Pacific, Northern tropical Atlantic, and Southeastern United States are examples of regions where the (historic) observations are in significant disagreement with the model forced by greenhouse gases and sulfate aerosols". It looks like they went back to the models and tweaked them to further prove the butterfly effect. Tweaking a model so that it jives with the past 150 years does not mean that it can predict the future, it only means that the odds of the model being able to predict the future isn't totally outside the realm of possibility.

This coming on the heals of NOAA predictions of an above average hurricane season for 2007. When NOAA released their pre-season forecast for the 2007 season they predicted 13 to 17 named storms, with 7 to 10 becoming hurricanes, and 3 to 5 becoming major hurricanes. Turns out there were only 6 hurricanes and only 2 of those were classified as major. Only one made landfall and that was a CAT1 that quickly fell apart over land. Statements were made at the time that global warming was going to make 2007 one of the worst hurricane seasons ever. Yet we're suppose to trust their long term hurricane forecasts.

As we mentioned here hurricanes have actually been decreasing in number and intensity since records began in the 1850's. For example the 3 decades 1971 through 2000 experienced half the number of severe hurricanes as the decade of 1941-1950.

Tom Knutson has stated in the past that his work was "censured" by the Bush administration. Perhaps if there wasn't so much doubt regarding the accuracy of computer models to predict the future some of Mr. Knutson's statements wouldn't have been left out of final reports. Many scientists seem to think that their latest theory or computer model should be shouted from the highest mountain tops, regardless of whether it is proven. Now Mr. Knutson has shown by his own change of opinion that perhaps its best for politicians not to be hasty in accepting the latest scientific study of the week.
 
And we still have two months to go.

Disasters in US: An extreme and exhausting year | New England Post

The insurance company Munich Re calculated that in the first six months of the year there have been 98 natural disasters in the United States, about double the average of the 1990s.

Even before Irene, the Federal Emergency Management Agency was on pace to obliterate the record for declared disasters issued by state, reflecting both the geographic breadth and frequency of America’s problem-plagued year.

“If you weren’t in a drought, you were drowning is what it came down to,” Masters said.

Add to that, oppressive and unrelenting heat. Tens of thousands of daily weather records have been broken or tied and nearly 1,000 all-time records set, with most of them heat or rain related:
 
Partnering for more resilient societies | Swiss Re - Leading Global Reinsurer

Major catastrophes dominated the headlines and disrupted lives and livelihoods this year – a sobering reminder that affected communities are no match for the forces of nature. We saw earthquakes in Japan and New Zealand, floods in Australia, tornadoes in the United States, drought in the Horn of Africa and hurricanes in the Caribbean and the eastern seaboard of the US. This is already the second most devastating year on record when it comes to insured losses from catastrophic events.

It’s little wonder governments are increasingly turning to private insurers for risk-bearing capacity and risk financing expertise. Swiss Re is facilitating new forms of public-private partnerships to help governments absorb the financial consequences of catastrophic events and make themselves more resilient.
Committing to make a differenceWe’re making a series of bold statements about it during a single week in September, when some of the world’s preeminent leaders converge on New York. During this week Swiss Re and its partners are showcasing a series of commitments at the Clinton Global Initiative that make a real difference to people in impoverished societies.

Swiss Re is also the Founding Sponsor of Climate Week NYC, an annual event where business, government and NGOs gather to address climate change. This year, we are sponsoring a panel entitled "Rethinking resiliency: innovative solutions for climate adaptation," featuring some of the world’s leading thinkers – including ourselves, of course – on this issue.
 
And we still have two months to go.

Disasters in US: An extreme and exhausting year | New England Post

The insurance company Munich Re calculated that in the first six months of the year there have been 98 natural disasters in the United States, about double the average of the 1990s.

Even before Irene, the Federal Emergency Management Agency was on pace to obliterate the record for declared disasters issued by state, reflecting both the geographic breadth and frequency of America’s problem-plagued year.

“If you weren’t in a drought, you were drowning is what it came down to,” Masters said.

Add to that, oppressive and unrelenting heat. Tens of thousands of daily weather records have been broken or tied and nearly 1,000 all-time records set, with most of them heat or rain related:

And now cites an article whose information is gotten from an insurance company whose job it is to make money from selling insurance against natural disasters, stating that, you got it natural disasters are on the rise....

Oldsocks what do you expect from a pig but a grunt?

EDIT: oh wait they insure insurance agencies the isnure against disasters... My bad and that changes what?
 
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?... If global warming is now caused by man made inventions how would science describe the cause of the dustbowl?

Not a scientist just curious the scientific theory on why the dust bowl happened.
 
?... If global warming is now caused by man made inventions how would science describe the cause of the dustbowl?

Not a scientist just curious the scientific theory on why the dust bowl happened.

That actually was both man made and natural. Perfect storm of mistakes made by farmers and a drought.

What did man do to cause that drought I dont know though :eusa_whistle:
 
Extreme Weather Caused By Global Warming Is Going To Worsen, Scientists Say

A draft summary of an international scientific report obtained by The Associated Press says the extremes caused by global warming could eventually grow so severe that some locations become "increasingly marginal as places to live."

The report from the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change marks a change in climate science, from focusing on subtle shifts in average temperatures to concentrating on the harder-to-analyze freak events that grab headlines, hurt economies and kill people.

"The extremes are a really noticeable aspect of climate change," said Jerry Meehl, senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. "I think people realize that the extremes are where we are going to see a lot of the impacts of climate change."

oh for Christ sakes...is that after the population bomb goes off? or acid rain burns us alive? the ozone disappears and I need 400K sunblock?
 
Market, Politicians Going Separate Ways on Climate Change: View- Bloomberg

Hurricane Irene’s residue is likely to include a confusing debate over whether insurers or property owners are responsible for storm-caused water damage. There’s no lack of clarity, however, over whether the insurance industry believes in climate change and its ties to lethal weather: It does.

As Bloomberg Businessweek reports in its Sept. 5 issue, the industry has absorbed many lessons from Sept. 11 about anticipating risk. One is that the recent spate of weather extremes is likely to continue -- and the insurance market must reflect that.

Interestingly, this puts the industry at odds with a number of Republican candidates who have made questioning climate change a not-insignificant part of their campaign strategy. Rick Perry and Michele Bachmann dispute whether global warming is man-made. Perry suggests that climate is affected by many variables, which scientists can manipulate “so that they will have dollars rolling into their projects.” Mitt Romney is on the fence. Only Jon Huntsman Jr. has declared definitively that he trusts scientists on global warming.

Politicians have been known to dissemble about risk because voters generally don’t like to hear bad news. The insurance industry makes its money telling it to you straight -- how long you’ll probably live, what price your home will fetch, whether to repair or trade in your car.

Risk Models

For this reason, it’s worth noting that insurers already factor climate change into their models for measuring, pricing and distributing risk. Insurers have no incentive to lie. If they are more scared than they should be in pricing risk, shareholders will punish them. If they aren’t scared enough, nature will do the job.

No one can say for certain that any single weather event flows from the warmer air caused by carbon emissions, which in turn lead to more rainfall, floods and snowfall over some parts of the planet, and more drought in other parts. But last year was the hottest on record. Arctic ice is at record low levels. Regardless of what politicians say, insurers must factor all this into premiums.
 
?... If global warming is now caused by man made inventions how would science describe the cause of the dustbowl?

Not a scientist just curious the scientific theory on why the dust bowl happened.

That actually was both man made and natural. Perfect storm of mistakes made by farmers and a drought.

What did man do to cause that drought I dont know though :eusa_whistle:

Surely mankind did something to attribute to the drought or there is a scientific theory on why an extreme drought took place.

BTW, another one heading this way.
 
Extreme Weather Caused By Global Warming Is Going To Worsen, Scientists Say

A draft summary of an international scientific report obtained by The Associated Press says the extremes caused by global warming could eventually grow so severe that some locations become "increasingly marginal as places to live."

The report from the Nobel Prize-winning Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change marks a change in climate science, from focusing on subtle shifts in average temperatures to concentrating on the harder-to-analyze freak events that grab headlines, hurt economies and kill people.

"The extremes are a really noticeable aspect of climate change," said Jerry Meehl, senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. "I think people realize that the extremes are where we are going to see a lot of the impacts of climate change."

oh for Christ sakes...is that after the population bomb goes off? or acid rain burns us alive? the ozone disappears and I need 400K sunblock?

peanuts
 
either global warming or other factors, i think the most important reason is from humanbeing, we change the globe a lot, and hurt it to much. so the result or the revenge from nature must be there.
 
It's like all those Cat 5 hurricanes that hit us after Katrina!

Extreme Weather (aka Global Warming, Climate Disruption, Climate Change)

Warmers smoking pot laced with paraquat.

Has to be

You see what a joke this Global Warming "Science" is, right?
 
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either global warming or other factors, i think the most important reason is from humanbeing, we change the globe a lot, and hurt it to much. so the result or the revenge from nature must be there.

Mankind is pretty destructive. No doubt in my mind mankind needs to clean up its act but, until enough people decide earth is worth taking the effort to save its just going to get more polluted. When they decide they can give up the great money grab is when the changes may take place.
 
And they accuse Republicans and conservatives of being fear-mongers?

If you think these people must be Republicans, just ask Rdean about that. He says only 6% of scientists are Republicans.

Immie
 
And we still have two months to go.

Disasters in US: An extreme and exhausting year | New England Post

The insurance company Munich Re calculated that in the first six months of the year there have been 98 natural disasters in the United States, about double the average of the 1990s.

Even before Irene, the Federal Emergency Management Agency was on pace to obliterate the record for declared disasters issued by state, reflecting both the geographic breadth and frequency of America’s problem-plagued year.

“If you weren’t in a drought, you were drowning is what it came down to,” Masters said.

Add to that, oppressive and unrelenting heat. Tens of thousands of daily weather records have been broken or tied and nearly 1,000 all-time records set, with most of them heat or rain related:

The number of natural disasters the federal government declares is purely a political issue. It's not any kind of scientific measurement. The president declares a disaster at the drop of a hate these days. It's a great excuse for spending money and buying votes.
 
And we still have two months to go.

Disasters in US: An extreme and exhausting year | New England Post

The insurance company Munich Re calculated that in the first six months of the year there have been 98 natural disasters in the United States, about double the average of the 1990s.

Even before Irene, the Federal Emergency Management Agency was on pace to obliterate the record for declared disasters issued by state, reflecting both the geographic breadth and frequency of America’s problem-plagued year.

“If you weren’t in a drought, you were drowning is what it came down to,” Masters said.

Add to that, oppressive and unrelenting heat. Tens of thousands of daily weather records have been broken or tied and nearly 1,000 all-time records set, with most of them heat or rain related:

I've often wondered why the "98 degrees in the shade" weather I was told happened "every day" in the summer was never backed up by climate data. It turns out weather is EXTREMELY local in hilly areas when my cousins installed weather equipment on what used to be my grandfather's farm. 87 up on the hill with a breeze, 95 in the tobacco plot on the sunny side under a tree, 80 in the creekbed. All at the same time.

So were you in a drought or drowning this summer? I wasn't. It got hot an dry for a bit and then we got a lot of rain.
 
either global warming or other factors, i think the most important reason is from humanbeing, we change the globe a lot, and hurt it to much. so the result or the revenge from nature must be there.

Mankind is pretty destructive. No doubt in my mind mankind needs to clean up its act but, until enough people decide earth is worth taking the effort to save its just going to get more polluted. When they decide they can give up the great money grab is when the changes may take place.

What do you consider to be the greatest man-made damaging factor to the environment?
 
either global warming or other factors, i think the most important reason is from humanbeing, we change the globe a lot, and hurt it to much. so the result or the revenge from nature must be there.

Mankind is pretty destructive. No doubt in my mind mankind needs to clean up its act but, until enough people decide earth is worth taking the effort to save its just going to get more polluted. When they decide they can give up the great money grab is when the changes may take place.

What do you consider to be the greatest man-made damaging factor to the environment?

Chemical overloads.
 

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