Existing home sales rise 10%

[Mad Scientist]

Yes, Democrats who control Congress, and Obama, appointed a debt commission that intends to knee-cap the housing industry by blowing away the mortgage deduction.

Repeating a lie does not make it the truth.

Congress appointed two thirds of the commission, Obama only appointed one third.

Oh yeah, that should get him off the hook.

From the Evil FoxNews:
Deficit Commission Weighs Dropping Mortgage Interest Deduction - FoxNews.com

The mortgage-interest deduction and other sacrosanct tax breaks are on the deficit commission's table as it works toward its deadline of providing a set of recommendations on balancing the budget by 2015.
Besides the mortgage-interest deductions, the newspaper reports that the child tax credits and pre-tax spending by employers for health insurance could also be killed.

Those are Health Savings Accounts right? How would that affect National Health Care? Does that mean more employers might just dump coverage for their employees?
Sorry, not trying to hijack the thread.

 

[topspin]

.2 % the sky is falling

 

[saveliberty]

.2 % the sky is falling

It is if you just floated the idea the housing market is geting better.

 

[Scaybeez]

.2 % the sky is falling

It is if you just floated the idea the housing market is geting better.

Might I submit the idea that the cost of housing has been out of control in this country and that decreasing home values might, overall, be a beneficial thing for Americans in the long run? I realize everyone wants their home to be an investment, one that increases in value every year, but is that really realistic? The end result of such a situation is almost inevitably that people will take out loans they have little hope of actually paying back simply to get into a home. And we've all see what the consequences of that are.

 

[Toro]

And along comes the Obama debt commission to kill the mortgage interest deduction...

Tax increases are coming. Be prepared for it.

 

[topspin]

only partisan hacks take a month of .2% and make thier case. Take a look at a 9 month trend and it's up month after month. But please continue to cherrypick your bs is comical.

 

[saveliberty]

only partisan hacks take a month of .2% and make thier case. Take a look at a 9 month trend and it's up month after month. But please continue to cherrypick your bs is comical.

You realize that much of the remaining unsold housing stock is in terrible condition? I don't know how the bank lent money on the last one in my neighborhood. The foundation in the rear is about to cave in. The other remaining property needs to be torn down.

It is a 10% rise over last year's figures. Probably one of the worst housing markets in history. Talk about BS crap topspin.

 

[Scaybeez]

You realize that much of the remaining unsold housing stock is in terrible condition? I don't know how the bank lent money on the last one in my neighborhood. The foundation in the rear is about to cave in. The other remaining property needs to be torn down.

It is a 10% rise over last year's figures. Probably one of the worst housing markets in history. Talk about BS crap topspin.

I'm not sure how you make the leap from a single house in your neighborhood being in poor condition to "much of the remaining unsold housing stock" being in "terrible condition".

 

[topspin]

no shit, I wouldn't argue that the housing market was good much less great. I would argue that it's imporving from a terrible place.

 

[saveliberty]

no shit, I wouldn't argue that the housing market was good much less great. I would argue that it's imporving from a terrible place.

House prices have fallen approximately 30% from their peak in 2006, accompanied by a level of defaults and foreclosures without precedent in the post-World War II era. Many homeowners have mortgages with principal amounts higher than the market value of their properties. In general, though, the rational default point is below the "underwater" point where house price equals the remaining loan balance, and depends on prospects for future house price appreciation and borrower default costs.

FRBSF Economic Letter: Underwater Mortgages (2010-31, 10/18/2010)

20% of mortgages are underwater.

 

[topspin]

The price of oil is way below it's peak of 147. Lower prices are needed to get demand back.

 

[driveby]

NEW YORK (Cinnamon) -- Existing home sales climbed for the second month in a row in September, fueling some hope that a housing recovery is underway.

Sales of previously owned homes rose 10% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.53 million units last month, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday. That was up from a 4.12 million rate in August.

Existing home sales jump in September - Oct. 25, 2010

A few more foreclosed homes get bought and idiots like you hail economic recovery........

 

[topspin]

Poor people are funny

 

[mudwhistle]

NEW YORK (Cinnamon) -- Existing home sales climbed for the second month in a row in September, fueling some hope that a housing recovery is underway.

Sales of previously owned homes rose 10% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.53 million units last month, the National Association of Realtors reported Monday. That was up from a 4.12 million rate in August.

Existing home sales jump in September - Oct. 25, 2010

What does "Seasonally adjusted" mean?

Well let's take a look:

The Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate (SAAR) refers to the rate adjustment employed when drawing comparisons between various sets of statistical data. As the name suggests, it takes into account fluctuations of values in such data which might occur due to seasonality.

Such data would be affected by the time of the year (and hence the season) and thus it would be misleading to draw comparisons month-to-month all year long. An example would be occupancy rates of ski resorts, which would by default be higher during winter as compared to summer. Sales between these two seasons can only be fairly compared through seasonally adjusted rates. The SAAR is calculated by dividing the unadjusted annual rate for the month by its seasonality factor and creating an adjusted annual rate for the month. These adjustments are more often used when economic data is released to the public.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Seasonally_adjusted_annual_rate

Typically September and October are good months. Most of the sales occur during the months of March, April, and May....then a slowdown usually occurs.

So what we're looking at here is a cycle that occurs every year and nothing can be drawn from it. Historically Spring and Fall months are better then the Summer months. This does not indicate an improvement in the economy. If the rate continues to go up month after month then yes, you can say that....but not after just two months. This finding is not an exact science so errors can and are made.

 

[william the wie]

The foreclosure wave should reduce prices to the point where 40-50% of all performing mortgages represent underwater properties so the big question is when will strategic default become the norm?

 

[Toro]

The foreclosure wave should reduce prices to the point where 40-50% of all performing mortgages represent underwater properties so the big question is when will strategic default become the norm?

That would be great!

I want to buy some more real estate on the cheap.

 

[mudwhistle]

The foreclosure wave should reduce prices to the point where 40-50% of all performing mortgages represent underwater properties so the big question is when will strategic default become the norm?

I figure next Spring we'll know....then Spring will take on a new meaning. [As in Spring another planned crisis on America]

 

[william the wie]

The foreclosure wave should reduce prices to the point where 40-50% of all performing mortgages represent underwater properties so the big question is when will strategic default become the norm?

That would be great!

I want to buy some more real estate on the cheap.

Yeah Schilling did a sq. ft. adjustment to the Case-Schiller index and claimed according to his housing graph return to equilibrium would cause 40% of mortgages to be underwater. So I checked estimation tables on amenities and factored that out and assumed the normal arithmetic inverse dip below trend got 60% underwater then halved that for margin of safety. It ain't guaranteed but it should be in the ballpark to figure on a 40-50% underwater mark for mortgages over the next two years as putbacks and tax law changes reduce the funds available for real estate purchases.

 

[Toro]

The foreclosure wave should reduce prices to the point where 40-50% of all performing mortgages represent underwater properties so the big question is when will strategic default become the norm?

That would be great!

I want to buy some more real estate on the cheap.

Yeah Schilling did a sq. ft. adjustment to the Case-Schiller index and claimed according to his housing graph return to equilibrium would cause 40% of mortgages to be underwater. So I checked estimation tables on amenities and factored that out and assumed the normal arithmetic inverse dip below trend got 60% underwater then halved that for margin of safety. It ain't guaranteed but it should be in the ballpark to figure on a 40-50% underwater mark for mortgages over the next two years as putbacks and tax law changes reduce the funds available for real estate purchases.

Maybe.

But when I look at what I can buy, I think US land is the cheapest asset in the world, at least in some places. Here in Florida, banks are dumping properties for 90%-95% what they went for at the peak. Decent properties that went for $250k have been sold for $10,000 as the banks have been forced to liquefy. That's something.

 

[mudwhistle]

That would be great!

I want to buy some more real estate on the cheap.

Yeah Schilling did a sq. ft. adjustment to the Case-Schiller index and claimed according to his housing graph return to equilibrium would cause 40% of mortgages to be underwater. So I checked estimation tables on amenities and factored that out and assumed the normal arithmetic inverse dip below trend got 60% underwater then halved that for margin of safety. It ain't guaranteed but it should be in the ballpark to figure on a 40-50% underwater mark for mortgages over the next two years as putbacks and tax law changes reduce the funds available for real estate purchases.

Maybe.

But when I look at what I can buy, I think US land is the cheapest asset in the world, at least in some places. Here in Florida, banks are dumping properties for 90%-95% what they went for at the peak. Decent properties that went for $250k have been sold for $10,000 as the banks have been forced to liquefy. That's something.

This happened several times in CA when I was there. Wish I had some cash then...but I was broke like everyone else. Only the rich get over in this kind of market. Everyone else suffers.