Europe seeking new role in world affairs

[Avatar4321]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20041022/ap_on_re_eu/wider_europe&cid=518&ncid=716

Maybe its just me but doesnt this kinda look like they are just trying to get the old role they had prior to the World Wars they lost when we saved them? How exactly is it a new role? seems silly to me.

I honestly dont think the European Union will last. for one i think they are stupid for doing it the way they are doing. lets invite all the nations in and then sit down and try to write up a constitution. Brilliant people.

I mean if France, Germany and the other early members were smart they would have sat down and constructed a constitution favorable to them and then let the other nations apply so they have no say in it.

But then what am i saying, the French smart?

 

[onedomino]

Do not underestimate the emergence of the European Union. The EU will be one of the power centers in what is rapidly becoming a tri-polar world. Over time, the EU will solve its constitutional difficulties. It already has a single currency and the beginning of a common EU military structure. Countries such as France, Germany, and Spain hope the EU defense force will replace NATO. Even now, the US military presence in Germany is being reduced. What will the EU defense force look like 20 or 30 years from now? The greatest weakness of the EU is its aging and declining population base.

Eventually NAFTA will expand to encompass South America. The US and the rest of the Western Hemisphere will integrate into a single economic unit composed by mid-century of well over a billion people. The US alone will have 420 million people by 2050. This will be another power center in the tri-polar world of the future. The third power center will be Asian and dominated by China.

There are many variables and unseen future events that will affect the emergence of the tri-polar world. What role will the military play in the development of the EU? Will the EU defense force confront America?

Will Russia join the EU? Will it continue to float among the economic power centers? It does not have the population base necessary to become the fourth player in a multi-polar world.

Will the EU try to integrate Africa into its economic structure? What influence will America and the Western Hemisphere exert on the development of Africa?

Where will Japan fit in this geopolitical landscape? Japanese military, economic, and political structures fit best with a Pacific Basin influenced Western Hemisphere. Given the intense cultural and political enmity that exists between China and Japan, it seems unlikely that the Japanese will blend into an Asian economic power center dominated by the Chinese. However, the advantages of economic integration may overcome Chinese and Japanese differences by mid-century. Perhaps the culturally insular Japanese will attempt to float among the major economic groups.

By 2020, India will have a larger population than China. It also has great hostility toward China. Will it float amid the alliances of the tri-polar world? It seems clear that Australia will join the Western Hemisphere center of power. A NAFTA type arrangement between America and Australia will take effect by the end of 2005.

During the second half of the 20th century, the basic economic unit of the bi-polar world was the nation-state. During the first half of the 21st century, the basic economic unit of the tri-polar world will become the multi-nation-state.

 

[CSM]

The EU,Japan and some of the African nations all have one problem in common that could cripple them. They have little or no natural resources to fall back on. Most of the African nations (and the Middle East to some extent) have to rely on other countries to extract what resources they do have. Sort of an Achilles heel.

 

[Avatar4321]

See, here is the thing. I dont think the EU will survive. there are just too many rivalries and i cant possibly see the French getting along with people.

And Id have no problem if our troops were taken out of Germany. It would destroy their economy. Why should we be propping it up when we have no reason to be there anyway.

 

[Zhukov]

....

This is a good prediction.

I think it's reasonable to assume, no matter what, the Japanese are with us (the Western Hemisphere). They really do not like the Chinese, so much so that I seriously doubt even economic interests would surmount the cultural problems that exist between the two.

I think it would be in our nation's interest to start encouraging U.S. companies doing business with the Chinese to take a look at India. If we can get the Indians integrated into the an economic union of the Americas, Japan, and Australia, to put it mildly, we win.

Also, as others have stated, there is a great deal of instability inherent in the EU. First and foremost in my opinion is what I believe an inability to defend themselves. They wish to create a European only NATO-esque military force? Why, just for show?

Second is a system that favors the aging welfare states in the west while telling the new democracies and capitalist economies in the east to 'keep quiet'. We'll see how long that lasts.

The day Poland joined the EU was a sad day for me.

Most of the new European Union countries have dropped in the ranking during their first year of accession: Malta dropped 13 places (from 19 last year to 32 this year), Latvia 7 (from 37 to 44), Hungary 6 (from 33 to 39), Slovenia 2 (from 31 to 33) and Czech Republic 1 (from 39 to 40). Hungary, once the most dynamic economy of the ten new EU countries, has a serious budget deficit that hampers economic growth and a high rate of inflation - partly due to a raise in the already high VAT rate the moment the country joined the EU.



Poland shows the most precipitous drop in the GCR ranking: 15 places, from 45th position last year to 60th this year.

http://www.techcentralstation.com/102204B.html

Yay, socialism.

 

[NATO AIR]

i think the eastern europeans will begin to recover, because even within the 'old' EU, there are serious frictions and fault lines that are appearing that will likely weaken its socialist hold