Escalating pressure on Syria

[ekrem]

Turkey is set to deliver a final warning to Syria that it must end the bloodshed sweeping the country and introduce reforms or Ankara will join international measures against the regime, officials said Sunday.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu will go to Damascus on Tuesday to deliver this warning following the harshest reaction yet from Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to the deadly unrest sweeping Syria.
(...)

“The talks will show whether the ties will be cut loose or not … If a new [Turkish] policy is to be outlined on Syria – that’s the last meeting.” The official stressed that Turkey’s position would influence the course of international action against Damascus.

“The situation here is not like the one in Libya. No one can do anything on Syria without Turkey… I don’t think that military action against Syria is likely but the process may lead to an embargo, isolation and a Saddam [Hussein]-like situation” for al-Assad, he said.

Thus far, Ankara has stopped short of calling for al-Assad’s departure, arguing that a democratic transition should take place under his leadership.

By turning against al-Assad, Turkey would face deterioration in ties with its southern neighbor, which had flourished in recent years. The turmoil has already hit trade links between the two countries and led to an exodus to Turkey of thousands of Syrians fleeing bloodshed in their country.

In a gloomy reminder to al-Assad, Erdoğan on Saturday made a veiled reference to fallen Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak, who recently appeared before a Cairo court, confined to a cage and lying on a stretcher.

“Those who sent scores of Muslims to the gallows are not up on their feet now and look where they are going on a stretcher … Those who do not learn a lesson will suffer,” Erdoğan said.

Erdoan sends Turkish FM to up pressure on Syria - Hurriyet Daily News

Syria says Turkey to hear more decisive reply

In sharp rebuff to Ankara, presidential adviser Bouthaina Shaaban said Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu could expect tough words during a visit to Damascus on Tuesday.
Turkey's Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, who built close ties with Assad but has been increasingly critical of his crackdowns, has said Ankara's message "will be decisively delivered."
Shaaban, in a retort published by Syria's state news agency SANA, said: "If...Davutoglu is coming to Syria to deliver a decisive message, then he will will hear even more decisive words in relation to Turkey's position.

Syria says Turkey to hear more decisive reply | Diplomacy | World Bulletin

 

[ekrem]

Turkish religious affairs head breaks fast with Syrian refugees in Hatay

Head of Turkey's Religious Affairs Directorate expressed hope on Saturday that domestic peace would be ensured in Syria as soon as possible (...) and hoped that every one would return to his/her homeland after domestic peace was ensured.

Turkish religious affairs head breaks fast with Syrian refugees in Hatay | Islam | World Bulletin

 

[PoliticalChic]

Turkey is set to deliver a final warning to Syria that it must end the bloodshed sweeping the country and introduce reforms or Ankara will join international measures against the regime, officials said Sunday.

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu will go to Damascus on Tuesday to deliver this warning following the harshest reaction yet from Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to the deadly unrest sweeping Syria.
(...)

“The talks will show whether the ties will be cut loose or not … If a new [Turkish] policy is to be outlined on Syria – that’s the last meeting.” The official stressed that Turkey’s position would influence the course of international action against Damascus.

“The situation here is not like the one in Libya. No one can do anything on Syria without Turkey… I don’t think that military action against Syria is likely but the process may lead to an embargo, isolation and a Saddam [Hussein]-like situation” for al-Assad, he said.

Thus far, Ankara has stopped short of calling for al-Assad’s departure, arguing that a democratic transition should take place under his leadership.

By turning against al-Assad, Turkey would face deterioration in ties with its southern neighbor, which had flourished in recent years. The turmoil has already hit trade links between the two countries and led to an exodus to Turkey of thousands of Syrians fleeing bloodshed in their country.

In a gloomy reminder to al-Assad, Erdoğan on Saturday made a veiled reference to fallen Egyptian strongman Hosni Mubarak, who recently appeared before a Cairo court, confined to a cage and lying on a stretcher.

“Those who sent scores of Muslims to the gallows are not up on their feet now and look where they are going on a stretcher … Those who do not learn a lesson will suffer,” Erdoğan said.

Erdoan sends Turkish FM to up pressure on Syria - Hurriyet Daily News

Syria says Turkey to hear more decisive reply

In sharp rebuff to Ankara, presidential adviser Bouthaina Shaaban said Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmed Davutoglu could expect tough words during a visit to Damascus on Tuesday.
Turkey's Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan, who built close ties with Assad but has been increasingly critical of his crackdowns, has said Ankara's message "will be decisively delivered."
Shaaban, in a retort published by Syria's state news agency SANA, said: "If...Davutoglu is coming to Syria to deliver a decisive message, then he will will hear even more decisive words in relation to Turkey's position.

Syria says Turkey to hear more decisive reply | Diplomacy | World Bulletin

Any news in the papers re: discussins between Turkey and Iran?

 

[Trajan]

I are at logger heads, they need Syria, that is Iran does but Turkey has the common border etc etc ....its going to be interesting. as it stands now Assad will do what he has to do, who's gonna get in his way?

 

[ekrem]

Turkish investment in the Middle East, the Balkans and North Africa is estimated to be around $100 billion.
Turkey is number one foreign investor in Syria

Al Arabiya - Amir Taheri: Turkey and the Neo-Ottoman dream

 

[ekrem]

The security summit held at the Prime Ministry on Monday reviewed all potential moves Turkey could undertake if the al-Assad regime decides to go its own way and continue imposing violence.
(...)
Turkish officials said all options, including establishing a buffer zone in the Syrian part of the border, were being discussed at a technical level.

Stop crush on people or face Gadhafi’s fate, says Turkey's Davutolu - Hurriyet Daily News

The U.S. envoy for the Middle East Fred Hof held talks on Monday with Turkish officials in the Turkish capital of Ankara over the issue of Syria.
The meeting came following a phone conversation between U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton and Davutoglu on Sunday.

Turkish FM to visit Damascus to deliver warning

Main opposition party leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu called on Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to not push Turkey into a possible military operation against Syria.
“We should take lessons from history. It [Turkey] shouldn’t repeat its mistakes. Let’s take democracy, freedoms to Syria and contribute to Syria to make it a more contemporary country. But we shouldn’t be the pawn of Western sovereign powers,” Kılıçdaroğlu, leader of the Republican People’s Party, or CHP, told the daily Hürriyet in an interview published Monday.
“We shouldn’t get involved in possible military action in Syria,“ he said.

Turkey should stay out of military action in Syria, says CHP chief - Hurriyet Daily News

 

[ekrem]

Speculation continues to suggest that Turkish leadership is building Arab support and justification for military action in Syria in defense of the protesters. However, the threats so far appear to be limited to rhetoric. Neither Turkey nor Saudi Arabia are prepared to deal with the fallout of accelerated regime change in Damascus, and it is highly unlikely that the United States will entertain another military campaign in the region to deal with the al Assad regime.
Free Article for Non-Members | STRATFOR

 

[ekrem]

Turkish FM has hold press conference, International Press can now visit Syria.
Army has removed from Hama.

Prime Minister Erdogan has said, that Syria will pass reform laws within 10-15 days.

 

[ekrem]

Pictures from Hama.
A group of 10 international Photographers went to there with Turkish Ambassador.


Ve Suriye kapıları açtı

 

[ekrem]

Obama and Erdogan phoned and both agreed to wait for another 2 weeks before entering the phase to demand Assad to step-down.

Turkey has convinced the US to wait for two weeks before pressing against Syria, but so far sees little sign that President Assad will end the bloodshed
(...)
In a phone conversation late Thursday, U.S. President Barack Obama and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan “agreed to monitor closely the steps taken by the Syrian government and to continue consultations,” the Prime Ministry’s press office said. Both agreed on the need for a transition to democracy in Syria, a statement from White House said.

Turkey buys more time for Damascus - Hurriyet Daily News

Turkey isn’t ruling out international intervention in Syria if the Bashar al-Assad regime doesn’t stop using violence against its own people, a Turkish official speaking on condition of anonymity told the Hürriyet Daily News on Friday.
The source also said that a letter from Turkish President Abdullah Gül to Assad delivered by Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu on Tuesday was considered by Ankara as an “ultimatum” to Damascus that, if violence by Syrian troops continued, Assad would no longer be able to rely on Turkey’s friendship.

Syria intervention not off table - Hurriyet Daily News

 

[ekrem]

Free Article for Non-Members | STRATFOR

Regardless of the outcome of the crisis, Turkey will see its influence in Syria increase. Ankara wants to emerge as the preeminent power in the Middle East and the two neighbors share a long border. Turkey will eventually have a disproportionate amount of influence in Syrian affairs.

Before that happens, Turkey will find itself struggling with Iran over the future of Syria. The Syrian regime is the only ally that Tehran has in the Arab world and Damascus is key to Iran’s ability to project power in the region. This pivotal relationship becomes especially critical at a time when the Islamic Republic is trying to take advantage of a historic opportunity to emerge as a regional power. Therefore, the Iranians have more of an incentive to ensure the survival of the Syrian state than the Turks.

Both Turkey and Iran are key stake-holders in Syria, with differing views on how to deal with the Syrian crisis. Ankara and Tehran already have a complex relationship involving a mix of cooperation and competition vis-à-vis Iraq. However, it now seems that Syria will become the main arena for Turkish-Iranian dealings, foretelling some pretty tense moments in the days ahead.

 

[ekrem]

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/13/world/middleeast/13syria.html?_r=1

Diplomats say that Turkey, Syria’s neighbor to the north, has given the Syrian government two weeks to inaugurate meaningful political change in a country that remains one of the region’s most authoritarian. The Syrian government’s steps have so far been dismissed by opposition figures as superficial.

“I wouldn’t like to see you regret that you’ve been far too late in very little that you’ve done when you look back one day,” said a letter to Mr. Assad from President Abdullah Gul of Turkey. It was carried to Syria by Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu during his visit this week and made public on Friday by Turkey’s Anatolian news agency.

German FM Guido Westerwelle (Reuters Germany)

Westerwelle: Turkey has key role in Syria-conflict
"Westerwelle welcomes the leading role of Turkey in the Syria question and sees Turkey in a key role in relation to Syria." The Minister attaches great importance to close cooperation with Turkey on how to proceed.

Westerwelle: Türkei hat Schlüsselrolle bei Syrien-Konflikt | Reuters


After FM Davutoglu visited Damaskus on Tuesday PM Erdogan said he expects Syria to pass reform laws within the next 10-15 days.
In Telephone conversation with Obama it was agreed to delay US's escalation in rhetoric towards Syria for 2 weeks. There is now talk of an ultimatum delivered to Assad.
Meanwhile Assad and his system is fighting for survival and if he passes the demanded reforms his system would consequently collapse due to the nature of the democratic reforms and the fact that Syria is being ruled by the minority in the country.

So far, Diplomatic and Economic presence of Turkey within Syria continues.
Business relations like truck and train traffic into Syria have considerably decreased due to the protests in Syria. Turkey hasn't implemented sanctions on Syria and Ambassador are still there. Maybe this changes after the 2 weeks are over and Assad has not moved.

I don't think, that there will be any kind of military intervention before all other options are exhausted. And certainly no military action during Ramazan.

 

[ekrem]

Spokesman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the Turkish Parliament, AK Party Deputy Chairman of External Affairs, AK Party Central Executive Committee Member.
Twitter

Turkey should not become hostage to the Iranian-Saudi rivalry in the region. Every proposed action meets an angry response from either side and simply limits policy options. Despite the vocal and eager pro-Iranian lobby in this country Turkey will have to act from an Ankara perspective. If it is true that a very harsh Iranian message has been communicated to Ankara recently, then we are entering a new phase of rivalry between Turkey and Iran not necessarily confined to Syria. Regardless of what is happening externally with regard to Syria, what really matters are internal Syrian developments.
(...)
There is every indication that the Syrian protests are broadening their base to include the Syrian middle class now, too. Even in the wealthy suburbs of Damascus and the business community in Aleppo there are signs that cracks are forming. For Turkey there are two issues at stake here. One is the humanitarian, human rights issue, and there is little doubt that that has its own merits. The second one is Turkey’s neighborhood policy and Turkey’s regional weight and credibility. The latter concerns me. If we do not play this right, we risk losing valuable influence and power that has been accumulated over the last eight years. As a country that has ambitions to build a new order, we simply should not support a minority dictatorship that sees itself as equal to Turkey. It is time that Turkey take a harder line.

 

[ekrem]

Saudi King Abdullah and Turkey’s Gul discuss Syria and bilateral relations

President Gul’s visit to Saudi Arabia comes within an agreement between Riyadh and Ankara regarding the importance of putting an end to the violent crackdown on peaceful protesters in Syria, according to Al Arabiya.

“There is an agreement between the stands of both Saudi Arabia and Turkey over the Syrian crisis. Both states stress the importance of putting an end to the bloody crackdown on protesters,” Abdullahj Al Shimary, a Saudi political analyst, told Al Arabiya.

King Abdullah last Monday called for an end to the bloodshed in Syria and recalled the Saudi ambassador from Damascus.

Saudi King Abdullah and Turkey

President Gül didn't make statements to the press.

 

[ekrem]

MİT’s report
( National Intelligence Organization (Turkey) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia )

Today’s Zaman has obtained MİT’s intelligence report on the PKK and the support extended to it by Turkey’s neighbors. The report gives a highly detailed overview of the PKK’s activities in the region.

The report asserts that Iran, although it appears to be cooperating with Turkey in the fight against the PKK, has not provided a single bit of information on the operations it has been conducting in Kandil since July 16. In fact, it hasn’t even responded to requests from Turkey on information sharing. The PKK claimed that Iran uses intelligence provided by Turkey extensively when conducting its operations against PJAK. Although Iran has extradited 11 PKK militants to Turkey over the past two years, Turkey has failed to establish full and reliable cooperation with this country in anti-terrorism operations.

Syria, which was severely affected by the popular uprisings in the Arab world, is far from maintaining sound cooperation with Turkey in fighting regional terrorism. MİT points to Turkey’s criticism of President Bashar Assad and pressure from Turkish government officials on the Syrian government for reforms, saying the recently revived yet highly fragile relations between the two countries have deteriorated significantly. Intelligence units say Syria is increasingly working together with Iran in the region.

The MİT report recalls that Syria has carried out anti-PKK operations within its borders, starting in 2008, but not one of the 264 PKK militants detained in these operations has been extradited to Turkey.

Syria harbored the PKK and actually gave its leader, Abdullah Öcalan, a comfortable home until 1998, when Turkey threatened war if it continued to offer refuge to Öcalan. The country kicked him out, and he was captured in 1999 in Kenya and was returned to Turkey. The relations of the two countries, however, have improved in recent years, until the Syrian unrest.

Syria is unlikely to take any sincere or actual steps in helping Turkey’s anti-terrorism operations against the PKK, Turkish intelligence reports say. About 3,800 PKK militants currently live in Kandil, and at least 1,500 of them are of Syrian origin, according to Turkish intelligence. MİT’s report also notes that the PKK has not carried out any attacks to date on Syrian soil. Intelligence sources also say some PKK terrorists in Kandil, weary of Iran’s attacks in the area, are hiding in Syria. The lack of attacks on Syria, which has an estimated Kurdish population of 400,000, is highly surprising as the country is widely accepted as being the country where the Kurdish minority is most oppressed. Most Kurds in Syria are not even given Syrian citizenship, and they have to live without any identification documents.

Syria reverts to ’90s, Iran abandons Turkey in terror struggle

 

[ekrem]

There is serious violence going on in the last weeks from PKK / PJAK both in Iran and Turkey. Just 3 dead again yesterday in Turkey from PKK terror.
Yesterday, PM Erdogan has said due to Ramadan there is patience, but once Ramadan is over things will change and they'll pay the price.
Başbakan Erdoğan - Faturası ağır olacak - Hürriyet Gündem

We'll now catch PKK's remaining military command, its leader is already in prison.

Turkey prepares to deal lethal blow to PKK
Turkey prepares to deal lethal blow to PKK


In Winter 2007/2008 when we went into Iraq, we didn't move to PKK's headquarters in Kandil Mountain ranges in agreement with Bush, but targeted smaller PKK bases near the Turkish border. It was mainly to destroy PKK's food and weapons depots near the border.
There are reports, that the Iraqi airfield Bamerni, which Turkey captured in 2002 is being upgraded in Helicopter handling capacity.
We have 4 bases in N-Iraq and 1 airfield.

In 4 months USA will be "re-deployed" from Iraq to a "non-relevant" role.

Pictures from Bamerni airfield from DHA news agency:

 

[ekrem]

Iran-Turkey pipeline explosion halts imports

PKK's military leader of the HPG - People's Defense Force (a PKK wing) - Dozdar Hamo told AKnews that "HPG guerrillas blew up the oil pipeline between Iran and Turkey to cause economic harm to the two countries that are enemies of the Kurds."

Hamo also said that the HPG fighters had also attacked the security company that was protecting the pipeline. "A number of the vehicles of the company were burnt down."

Iran-Turkey pipeline explosion halts imports | ArabianOilandGas.com

 

[ekrem]

Only 2 of the PKK's remaining command are in Kandil mountain ranges. (Bayik and Karayilan).

Erdal is Syrian and is said to be hiding in Syria. He is self-proclaimed "commander-in-chief of the People’s Defense Forces, the PKK’s military wing"
The Jamestown Foundation: PKK Leadership Under Pressure in the Post-Öcalan Era
Bahoz Erdal - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[ekrem]

Iraqi freedom will be benchmarked in terms of bbl/day after USA has "brought freedom" to Iraq as a result of its multi-billion $ "intelligence".
Now there needs to be stability so "freedom" can prosper.
Obviously Kirkuk (N.Iraq) is one of the world's oil-centers, Turkey is investing in oil extraction in Iraq and Pipelines can not operate in same geography as PKK.

PM says push has come to shove on PKK

In an open challenge to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), which has recently stepped up its acts of violence despite the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said on Sunday that push has come to shove for Turkey, indicating that the country will enter a new era in the fight against terror after Ramadan.
(...)
“We are maintaining our patience because of our respect for Ramadan. But, everyone should know that the beginning of peace will be more different after this month of peace and solidarity,” Erdoğan added.

PM says push has come to shove on PKK, vows new tactic after Ramadan

I hope the Prime Minister doesn't leave it at words after Ramadan and will free the people from this terror.


"You’re really looking at the 600-lb. gorilla of the region."
George Friedman, STRATFOR CEO
Stratfor's George Friedman



Global Firepower - 2011 World Military Strength Ranking

(it's just PKK in Iraq with estimated 5.000 Terrorists in Kandil)

 

[ekrem]

It's the journalist who sits next to the PM in PM's aircraft.
He says biggest military operation since Cyprus is coming.

Yiğit Bulut - HaberTürk
Or you can use chaotic Google translation:
Google Translate


Dear friends, I agree that Prime Minister Erdogan's saying of "Everything will be different now" is an acknowledgement of Turkey's passive attitude so far.
For the Democratic Opening to work the Army has been rightfully forced into a passive position.
After Erdogan's words the attitude and strategy has completely changed and the public will soon see the signs of this. The new concept is large military operations with landings on Kandil mountains. The name of the operation with a large probability will be named Operation Hell and will be the indication of a "Sri-Lanka model" based approach. Once this operation starts, I don't think there will be a returning point, it will be a facticity for Turkey's new global approach. When? Very soon... A last detail: The fluctuations in the International markets has delayed the operation, everything is ready for the biggest military activity since Cyprus, it can start every next second.
Conclusion: Turkey has definitely pulled the trigger for a geographical large operation. The new stance against Damaskus and the relations with USA should be viewed under this context, you'll find very serious indicators.
Note: My invitation to all terrorists who don't have bloods on their hands and who want to return: You have the option of not believing what I've said, but it'
s better to believe and to lay down your Arms and surrender. With sureness the USA won't limit the operations this time.

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There's blood everywhere in the region's air, finally it seems the smell of it has reached the PM's nose.