Discussion in 'Middle East - General' started by Bleipriester, Jul 12, 2018.
It says all...
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RE: Erdogan´s map
I'm a bit confused! (Maybe a little thick on this subject matter.)
I thick we are watching a slow and agonizing death of a nation It looks like to me that Syria will break-up. The war has gone on now for what, 6 or 7 years, and what peace and security for the people has been achieved? Yes, the map colors (who controls what) has changed many times, yet, how far away is a conflict resolution? Is the situation any better today than what it was on the "Day of Rage" (Spring of March '11)?
Give me a rundown, because I'm confused? (Probably the only one in the discussion that is?) Is Syria going to break-up?
This cannot be foreseen with certainty but it is likely that Syria will not break up. The "problem" (actually it is a sign of progress) in the north is that "rebels" who don´t want to reconcile have nowhere to go anymore. Maybe, there will be the real showdown of the war as thousands of rebels who surrendered are now there in addition to the others.
But I guess they have lost their best equipment and fighters already in the Aleppo battles and the offensives they started out of the de-escalation zones. Many thousands died. The Turkish behavior cannot be foreseen but the Russians are not willing to take that rocket and drone attacks on their assets forever. Turkey has also the Euphrat Shield region under control.
It seems that the Kurds are happy with Hasakah and will remain in the SAR. It all depends on the actions of the foreign powers. There can be another US "comeback" anytime. The more the US is engaged the more likely other countries like Turkey, Jordan or Saudi Arabia will step up their support for "rebels" again, so it is important to provide the SAA with the means to counter any threat to prevent this possible re-escalation.
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