JohnStOnge
Member
- Jul 8, 2005
- 321
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Honestly, I don't listen to high school chemistry teachers, message board posters, or arm chair wanna be experts in this topic.
I listen to trained PhDs who have spent a lifetime training and studying in this area. I'm not an expert, so the only thing I know about it is what the experts say: that its a proven fact that CFCs deplete the ozone layer, its a proven fact that thanks to Ronald Reagan, CFC concentrations in the atmosphere are decreasing, its a proven fact that the depletion of the ozone has stabilized since CFCs were banned, and the models suggest the ozone will fully recover in 50 years or so.
Sigh. It has not been "proven" as a fact that CFCs deplete the ozone layer. I guess you have made a commitment to focus on people and not arguments and I guess that's understandable. But I'll make the arguments anyway. Once again, you're talking about a cause and effect inference. In this case there is an "experiment" of sorts taking place in that we are exercising some control in reducing CFCs. But not really, because in order to have an experiment you have to have controls. In fact, to do a cause and effect experiment on something like this you'd have to have at least two "treatement" subjects (planets) and at least two "control" subjects. If the ozone hole does diminish in the long run that will be suggestive, but it will not infer cause and effect. I think maybe a probability experiment might be designed with one subject where we divided the future into 100 or so year intervals then randomly selected some intervals to get the CFC treatment and others to not get; but that obviiously would take a very long time.
In this thread, below, Old Rocks quoted a scientist as saying this:
"Work has suggested that a detectable (and statistically significant) recovery will not occur until around 2024, with ozone levels recovering to 1980 levels by around 2068.[32]"
That's saying they don't have sufficient evidence right now to even say that the recovery they're hoping for is occuring; much less to say that reduction in CFCs is the cause of such a recovery. And I don't see how you can say it's a proven fact that "ozone depletion" has "stabilized" when the largest "ozone hole" ever was in 2006. There are plausible explanations for how "they" can be right about the effect of CFCs and still have that happen(Record ozone hole despite cuts in CFCs | The Australian ), but there is no WAY one can legitimately point to what's happened with the ozone "hole" to this point and say, "See, cutting CFCs has caused the ozone layer to recover!"