energy

[RGR]

There, pumpkin. Was that clear enough for you?

Much better. Now, what is your comment on which of these ideas? I'm not talking about your general bluster and chest pounding in the hopes of gaining converts, what part of that quote do you think matters, and why? Jiggsy thoughts now, not theirs.

Do you like his plateau idea instead of the traditional peak? Halfway through reserves? Jump in nominal oil prices? Price volatility? Increasing population?

Pick one, because certainly shotgunning random concepts was hardly what I requested. Past experience with you has shown you have propaganda cutting and pasting skills a mile wide but only an inch deep, we want to actually get you to THINK for once.

 

[JiggsCasey]

There, pumpkin. Was that clear enough for you?

Much better. Now, what is your comment on which of these ideas? I'm not talking about your general bluster and chest pounding in the hopes of gaining converts, what part of that quote do you think matters, and why? Jiggsy thoughts now, not theirs.

Do you like his plateau idea instead of the traditional peak? Halfway through reserves? Jump in nominal oil prices? Price volatility? Increasing population?

Pick one, because certainly shotgunning random concepts was hardly what I requested. Past experience with you has shown you have propaganda cutting and pasting skills a mile wide but only an inch deep, we want to actually get you to THINK for once.

LOL... So you can't bring yourself to call them dishonest, nor dumb. Good choice.

It's clear as day that everything the man said supports my argument fully, and turns yours on it's ear. What part about the bolded are you still confused about?

The man said the price points have been rising all decade and that it's all due to "nothing OTHER than a shortfall in supply." I'd say that's pretty succinct and to the point, and hammers your entire belief system. You can't stand that you've been brought face to face with how fail your "nothing to see here" argument has been.

You officially look like a coincitard who's looking for any escape hatch you can find at this point. You don't know whether to pretend those men are lying, or that they're just not as smart as you. So you continue to stall, and extend the play. LOL.

You're not fooling anyone, littlle cornucopian. You lost. We are at peak. Deal with it. All the evidence and testimony supports it.

Your endless allusions to "vast" unconventional reserves don't change the equation. Sorry. Perhaps you can appeal to the musings of CERA-paid Daniel Yergin for more empty denial, parrot.[/thread]

 

[RGR]

There, pumpkin. Was that clear enough for you?

Much better. Now, what is your comment on which of these ideas? I'm not talking about your general bluster and chest pounding in the hopes of gaining converts, what part of that quote do you think matters, and why? Jiggsy thoughts now, not theirs.

Do you like his plateau idea instead of the traditional peak? Halfway through reserves? Jump in nominal oil prices? Price volatility? Increasing population?

Pick one, because certainly shotgunning random concepts was hardly what I requested. Past experience with you has shown you have propaganda cutting and pasting skills a mile wide but only an inch deep, we want to actually get you to THINK for once.

LOL... So you can't bring yourself to call them dishonest, nor dumb. Good choice.

I haven't even ventured an opinion yet halfwit.

It's clear as day that everything the man said supports my argument fully, and turns yours on it's ear. What part about the bolded are you still confused about?

I'm not sure that YOU know what your argument is, which is why starting with just one piece seems like a reasonable way to determine how shallow your knowledge of peak oil actually is.

The man said the price points have been rising all decade and that it's all due to "nothing OTHER than a shortfall in supply." I'd say that's pretty succinct and to the point, and hammers your entire belief system.

So is that the part you want to discuss?

 

[editec]

Here's one thing I am drop dead certain of.

As the price of oil continues to climb faster than the overakk rate of inflation, the VALUE of alternative sources of energy also continues to climb.

I think it might behoove the American people to get ahead of that curve.

Don't really kinow what part wind power will play in that formula, but wind IS an energy source that we bearly tap in this nation.

 

[RGR]

Here's one thing I am drop dead certain of.

As the price of oil continues to climb faster than the overakk rate of inflation, the VALUE of alternative sources of energy also continues to climb.

I think it might behoove the American people to get ahead of that curve.

I would venture that we already are. Certainly we may not be as far down the path as the Germans for example, but we appear to be more flexible in our solutions than they are, and as the worlds biggest energy hog, it is more in our best interest to solve this issue for the world than it is theirs,

I think that the beginnings of manufacturers providing transportation alternatives for the average commuting American is itself a game changer both because we substitute electrical sources of fuel for crude based ones and develop the practical experience to do it on a much grander scale than others (except perhaps the Chinese) could ever hope to.

 

[Old Rocks]

Well, RGR, we will not do it by starving the scientific establishment as the Teabaggers wish to do. We need, ASAP, a distributed grid. And we need to put legs of that grid out to where the energy is. Like the Interstate System, I cannot see this happening by any other means than government projects.

 

[Old Rocks]

This graph says all that need to be said about peak oil in the US.

File:US Oil Production and Imports 1920 to 2005.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[RGR]

This graph says all that need to be said about peak oil in the US.

File:US Oil Production and Imports 1920 to 2005.png - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Actually, it doesn't. And what it doesn't show is the past few years of crude oil production increases because of the development of unconventional oil resources.

Natural gas completely reversed Hubbert's predicted natural gas decline in the US, starting a decade after the decline had taken hold. Took the next 30 years to fight its way back to an entirely new peak natural gas, but it certainly put the kibosh on the old bell shaped curve being of value in predicting these things. I wonder if unconventional oil production can do the same thing?

 

[JiggsCasey]

Actually, it doesn't. And what it doesn't show is the past few years of crude oil production increases because of the development of unconventional oil resources.

Then why don't YOU show this, and quantify just how much production those resources provide thus far? You were asked to do so many months ago, several times. Show the data. Not reserve totals, but production rate and increase in production rate over time.

You wouldn't provide that link, because we both know said total is negligible up against dying existing conventional capacity and rising global demand. The total in "unconventionals" production is akin to kicking a late fourth-quarter field goal while down 40 points and pretending you're "getting right back in the game" as a result.

Natural gas completely reversed Hubbert's predicted natural gas decline in the US, starting a decade after the decline had taken hold. Took the next 30 years to fight its way back to an entirely new peak natural gas, but it certainly put the kibosh on the old bell shaped curve being of value in predicting these things. I wonder if unconventional oil production can do the same thing?

"Wonder" is about all you have. Because, without a doubt, you don't have the data that shows it's being produced at any significant rate.

Unconventionals are something like 3-times as expensive. And with the global economy on the brink already, and during a time of austerity measures, pretending the infrastructure for unconventionals can be multiplied many times over is pure hubris.

*edit: ah what the hell... we both know you WON'T link your claim... I'll do it:

Source - ASPO

Like I said... Negligible.

But I'm sure "the markets" will up those pathetic totals of unconventional production, 10-fold, in no time. ... And of course, consumers and small business will easily be able to afford the new price points.

 

[JiggsCasey]

So is that the part you want to discuss?

One of a few dozen from those videos, sure. We can start with that one if you like.

Let's remember something:

- the burden is on me to show that peak is here...

but then, in mocking that claim...

- the burden is on YOU to show that it's either a) not here, or b) perhaps here, but still an "easy game."

So far, you appear to be attempting to assert both A and B. And the dual strategies are really hindering each other badly.

 

[RGR]

So is that the part you want to discuss?

One of a few dozen from those videos, sure. We can start with that one if you like.

Fine. Lets start with this one.

"Oil prices did not jump four-fold, (or) three or four times in the last five years for any reason other than a shortage of supply."

Shortage of supply! Shortages sound pretty bad! Not enough oil around and all. Shortages explicitly imply something, and that something is no surplus capacity.

Spare capacity of several million barrels a day in 2010.

The Oil Drum: Europe | OPEC's Spare Crude Oil Capacity - Will it Disappear by the End of 2011?

Spare capacity (for OPEC alone!) from 2003 through 2009?

The Oil Drum: Europe | Oilwatch Monthly September 2009

Seems a bit difficult to declare there isn't enough supply when there have been millions of barrels a day laying around, just waiting around, doesn't it Jiggsy?

Perhaps his concern was more specific to the 2008 price spike? And he didn't really mean the more moderate, and less than the last great running out of the 70's time period, in terms of real oil prices?

‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’

So now Jiggsy, I figure we have a choice. We talk about 1) why it was so easy to contradict your source, 2) why the contradicting information isn't as contradictory as it seems or 3) you call me names and change the subject for dealing with this particular peak propaganda so easily.

Obviously, based on your past behavior I expect you to choose 3.

However, it seems fair to offer you choice #4. Pick another question, one which perhaps you are more comfortable defending on your own without mindlessly cutting and pasting your church's propaganda.

 

[JiggsCasey]

Fine. Lets start with this one.

"Oil prices did not jump four-fold, (or) three or four times in the last five years for any reason other than a shortage of supply."

Shortage of supply! Shortages sound pretty bad! Not enough oil around and all. Shortages explicitly imply something, and that something is no surplus capacity.

LOL... You really don't know what you're talking about. But worse, you're 1) such an intellectually dishonest individual, 2) incredibly lazy as a poster.

You attempt to refute a premise by distorting what a statement means. In this example, you pretend very temporary spare production capacity is some big barometer of the long-term supply picture. Fail. Hilarious fail.

Spare capacity is just that. Spare capacity. It's the cartels' alleged ability to stretch maximum production limits for a short period should it need to, as in the case of disruption elsewhere (Libya, for instance). It's not figures they claim they can actually sustain, and it's more a statement on their processing ability, NOT what they have to work with in total.

At this point, it's hard to tell if you're just dumb, or lying again. But the fact that you just lazily threw a few links out there without even attempting to qualify what you think they're trying to say is amusingly half-assed on your part. It really smacks of a desperate poster who is anxious to smokescreen and escape accountability for an untenable position. I SERIOUSLY doubt YOU yourself even read them. Because:

Spare capacity of several million barrels a day in 2010.

The Oil Drum: Europe | OPEC's Spare Crude Oil Capacity - Will it Disappear by the End of 2011?

From your own fucking link, genius:

In this post, I use the same definition of OPEC spare capacity as the IEA. This is capacity that can be reached within 30 days and sustained for 90 days.

What the above diagram illustrates is that OPEC crude oil supplies for all practical purposes remained on a moderately bumpy plateau between July 2004 and late 2008. During this period, crude oil prices grew from around $40/Bbl to more than $140/Bbl. The steep rise in prices are now thought to be the combined result of physically tight supplies and speculators detecting these tight supplies

$70 - 80/bbl oil suggests a redistribution of spending within several economies; that is more money is used for oil/energy and less for spending on other things. If this is so, then this will show up in statistics from retailers, restaurants, car sales and other service industries. Reduced availability of credit and higher unemployment (amongst other factors) most likely also play a major part in declining discretionary spending.

The fact that prices have remained as high as $70 to $80 a barrel with only a modest rise in global oil demand/consumption suggests that as supplies become even tighter in the future, prices will rise even higher yet. This analysis suggests that we may continue to see strong oil prices as long as all the wheels stay on the major economies.​

Thanks for linking that one. Gonna save it, as it winds up doing far more for my argument than it does yours.

Spare capacity (for OPEC alone!) from 2003 through 2009?

The Oil Drum: Europe | Oilwatch Monthly September 2009

This excellent link is also supreme fail for your premise, as using it again shows you miss the point and are attempting to change the discussion from a over-arching supply concern to one of short-term emergency production capability. Worse, your chart relies almost entirely upon Saudi Arabia's spare capacity claims and Saudi Arabia alone.

Again, you are not actually challenging what al Husseini actually said. Sorry, you're just not. If you think you are, you had better work harder, and write more clearly.

Regardless, the world had better damned well have some wiggle room in our ability to adjust for production disruptions (war, disaster, civil unrest, etc.) Else there'd already BE global systemic chaos. So your punt to "spare capacity" claims isn't really saying much about what al Husseini is referring to. Fail. Confirmed further by your reluctance to quote anything from either link.

Further, from what I've read, I'd suspect all spare capacity is just high water cut at around 70-85%, and inflated to calm markets. There's 3 million barrels of oil they claim they COULD crank out? Even if true: Big deal.

Address his point. Do better.

Seems a bit difficult to declare there isn't enough supply when there have been millions of barrels a day laying around, just waiting around, doesn't it Jiggsy?

Maybe in retarded land, where "spare capacity" apparently equates to storage glut? I dunno what you're trying to say here, but we knew months ago you're a lol-tastic writer anyway.

It's "laying around?" Where? What oil are you talking about? Already extracted, sitting in tankers? Or in the ground and "ready" to be extracted at an increased rate for a few weeks/months if needed? ... WTF are you even trying to claim?

If it's the latter, so what? That does absolutely nothing to counter the argument of overall supply shortage.

Perhaps his concern was more specific to the 2008 price spike? And he didn't really mean the more moderate, and less than the last great running out of the 70's time period, in terms of real oil prices?

Another poorly written paragraph. But I'll try to guess what you were trying to say, anyway. The 600% rise in price the past 12 years has been rather monotonous, so if you're pretending al Husseini is referencing just the 2008 spike, that's laughably obtuse. Especially considering I quoted the man saying:

"Yes, there may have been some recent volatility in 2008, but the price trend started climbing way back in 2002-2003."​

‘Perhaps 60% of today’s oil price is pure speculation’

I love how you just randomly toss in some link about speculation, without even attempting to flesh out what you think that means in relation to the underlying debate here. That's what I mean by you being both dishonest AND lazy.

You can slap lipstick on it is you like. Ultimately, the speculators are "speculating" that there will be supply problems. So what's your point? Any way you wanna slice it, the relentless long term price increase indicates supply constraints for a world that needs ever more of it each year.

So now Jiggsy, I figure we have a choice. We talk about 1) why it was so easy to contradict your source, 2) why the contradicting information isn't as contradictory as it seems or 3) you call me names and change the subject ...

ROFL. Toolbox, you're still not fooling anyone here.

1) you didn't contradict my source in the least, and he would be laughing at you if he saw your rationale, just like I am.
2) I just did above.
3) you mean like you've been doing since you first engaged me on the topic?

Obviously, based on your past behavior I expect you to choose 3.

And as always, you spike the ball at the 5-yardline, thinking you're in the end zone. Spare capacity and year-over-year production totals are two different areas of discussion.

As for name-calling. you lit that fire a long time ago. Don't act all BUTT-HURT about getting it right back.

However, it seems fair to offer you choice #4. Pick another question, one which perhaps you are more comfortable defending on your own without mindlessly cutting and pasting your church's propaganda.

LOL. Logic-fail!

You didn't even deal with the first question. I can only imagine the spin you'll attempt to put on the next challenge from those videos.

Again, men WAY higher up the oil production food chain than goofy you, and all of them raping your fluffy cornucopia ignorance with each passage.

It is clear at this point that you're learning as you go along.

But because you write so horribly, and have now become so lazy as your argument erodes, it remains unclear whether you're attempting to portray the former VP of Saudi Aramco as a liar, or just not very smart. You would be dead wrong either way.

And being wrong (and being evasive) is something you've got to be quite used to by now.

I sense a smarmy fisking retort of one-sentence quips coming as soon as your text alert clears and you scramble to the site to hammer out another round of irrelevant, miss-the-mark rationalization and goal-post shifting. You know, within the hour as you usually do.

 

[RGR]

Fine. Lets start with this one.

"Oil prices did not jump four-fold, (or) three or four times in the last five years for any reason other than a shortage of supply."

I sense a smarmy fisking retort of one-sentence quips coming as soon as your text alert clears and you scramble to the site to hammer out another round of irrelevant, miss-the-mark rationalization and goal-post shifting. You know, within the hour as you usually do.

Do you have any coherent response at all to the multiple sources disputing your single source, or are you just going to concentrate on distracting others from how easy it was to find references contradicting your propaganda?

Just pick one, your inability to pay attention is as bad a cat chasing string.

The claimed shortage of supply did not exist, there was surplus capacity around the entire timeframe in question. You are welcome for being so ignorant of your own sources that you are appreciative of me finding them for you. The price spike was not caused by these imaginary shortages. How difficult is it for even an oiltard like you to understand the basics involved?

 

[TruthSeeker56]

I love watching the enviro-nazis try to fight their way out of the corners they always bullshit their way into.

 

[Moonglow]

oil is a llimited resourch and will run out. Got luck with ur horse

 

[bripat9643]

"Wonder" is about all you have. Because, without a doubt, you don't have the data that shows it's being produced at any significant rate.

Unconventionals are something like 3-times as expensive. And with the global economy on the brink already, and during a time of austerity measures, pretending the infrastructure for unconventionals can be multiplied many times over is pure hubris.

*edit: ah what the hell... we both know you WON'T link your claim... I'll do it:

Like I said... Negligible.

But I'm sure "the markets" will up those pathetic totals of unconventional production, 10-fold, in no time. ... And of course, consumers and small business will easily be able to afford the new price points.

Your charts are from a hack propaganda site. Note: there is no source listed for them. They were obviously made up from whole cloth by a gang of leftwing agitators.

 

[deja]

hello...
i found this very helpful to make my own solar panel.... i m hopping u ll find too.. this is very cost effective and includes every minor information too. this makes very easy too make solar panel at home. after vewing this u ll be surprised tht how easy to make energy at home.

 

[Old Rocks]

I'm sorry but how do you determine we have reached peak oil in the 70s?

By looking at global oil production data. Global peak was 1979. It declined, and about 10-15 years later, miraculously, it peaked again! This has happened before, in many places, many countries, and it is a well kept secret of the peaker religion. They certainly don't want it exposed to the general public, who then might ask the question, "If oil can peak multiple times, what are the odds of the current peak being overrun by yet another in the future."

Sorry but we do not know how much oil Earth has.

We have some very good guesses however. The peak religion doesn't want to talk about those either.

The peak that I was speaking of was here in the USA. And it has never come back, or reached that peak again, and it will not.


File:Hubbert US high.svg - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

 

[flacaltenn]

hello...
i found this very helpful to make my own solar panel.... i m hopping u ll find too.. this is very cost effective and includes every minor information too. this makes very easy too make solar panel at home. after vewing this u ll be surprised tht how easy to make energy at home.

Wow that was easy.. If it's THAT obvious and THAT easy -- why are we still spending BILLIONS of tax dollars to subsidize it?

I sense the number of house fires is gonna jump dramatically...

 

[Old Rocks]

I sense that Flat doesn't know much about anything related to energy. Care to post where a house fire has been blamed on properly installed solar panels?