Electoral math says its nearly impossible for Romney to win - Obama has 92.2% chance

[boilermaker55]

No, VOTE! But let us just see if Sheldon Adelson : can buy a president.

He is the first person to spend $70 million to sway a presidential election, and he plans to spend more — perhaps as much as $100 million — by Election Day.

Read more: Sheldon Adelson: Inside the mind of the mega-donor - Mike Allen - POLITICO.com

That's right. obama is a shoo in. Never even close. Democrats don't even have to bother voting.

 

[Mr. Shaman]

Electoral math says its nearly impossible for Romney to win - Obama has 92.2% chance

 

[Leweman]

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/249628-math-says-its-impossible-for-obama-to-win.html

 

[nodoginnafight]

The path for Romney to win is narrow - but not 7.8% narrow.
I agree with those who assert that now, it's all about turnout. I think both candidates have pretty much given up on swaying the 1 million or so undecided voters in the key swing states. I think from here on out it will be an effort to energize the base and get their people to the polls.

The GOP feels like their voters are more energized and ethusiastic and it doesn't matter whether their energy is pro-Romney or anti-Obama - it all equals the same.

The Dems feel they got a much better launching pad at their convention and that they are closing the ethusiasm gap fast.

We will see won't we?

 

[mamooth]

Seem to remember that Carter was ahead in the polls. I also remember Reagan won in a landslide. So much for polls.

How many times is this revisionist history going to be trotted out? Reagan was well ahead of Carter in the polls from late May 1980 onwards. The polls were accurate in 1980, in 2008, in 2010. It's wishful thinking to declare those same pollsters are suddenly inaccurate in 2012, simply because someone doesn't like the results.

And anyone referring to "Dewey defeats Truman!" is especially amusing, given how that was an example of a right-wing newspaper predicting glorious victory for the Republicans based on a lot of wishful thinking. Late-October polls showed Truman slightly behind and gaining. Dewey had adopted a platform of platitudes and refusing to state any concrete policies, on the the assumption that since Truman was so unpopular, Dewey could simply cruise to victory. Any of that sound familiar?

 

[Chris]

Romney is Thurston Howell III, and Paul Ryan is Gilligan.

Obama is The Professor.

 

[NYcarbineer]

If the safe and leaning states currently hold,

Obama needs 23 out of the 100 toss up electoral votes left.

 

[hazlnut]

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/249628-math-says-its-impossible-for-obama-to-win.html

If GOP math is anything like GOP science, you're fucked.

 

[Chris]

Romney can't win without Ohio.

And Romney ain't winning Ohio.

Did you see his lame rally in Dayton today???

He had to prod the crowd into cheering.

 

[Stephanie]

Romney can't win without Ohio.

And Romney ain't winning Ohio.

Did you see his lame rally in Dayton today???

He had to prod the crowd into cheering.

oh well, he didn't have to MOVE a convention speech to a SMALLER venue because they couldn't fill ALL the seats like Obama did...

 

[LordBrownTrout]

I just re-ran the simulation. Obama now has 96% odds of winning and his average electoral college vote is 315.

Go ahead and make it 100 percent if it will make you feel better. You're desperately trying to convince yourself.

 

[JimH52]

Let's have the election anyway.

I must agree! Mitt doesn't need to change thing! Picking Ryan was a real hit in Florida, huh? Mister Romney.....I say Full Steam Ahead!

 

[chikenwing]

I just re-ran the simulation. Obama now has 96% odds of winning and his average electoral college vote is 315.

You got how many different results from running the same code?

 

[Richard-H]

With Romney doing everything he can to sabotage his campaign, this one was over before the conventions. Now it's just about getting in as many cheap jokes about Romney as possible before he becomes forgotten and irrelevant.

The best part is he is taking Lyin Ryan and the Republican party down with him.

I honestly don't get the Republicans. I would like a genuine second party in this country (hell, I'd say I'd like more than two legit parties in this country if I wasn't afraid of being labeled a socialist by people who don't understand what that word means) but the Republicans have gone out of their way to alienate every demographic and shockingly disrespect the vast majority of Americans in one way or another that I don't understand what they're trying to achieve. Now with this lame duck candidate who shows his incompetence in a hilarious fashion on a daily basis, the Republicans are doing damage to their party it's going to take at least a generation to recover from.

Have you ever seen a movie called "The Producers"?

I really have to wonder if anyone scrutinizes what happens to campaign funds when elections are lost.

Republicans are of course capitalists, above all!

 

[g5000]

This analysis is based on the state-by-state electoral college futures availble at intrade.com.

Assumptions:
1. Either Obama or Romney will win each vote.
2. Nebraska and Maine do not have split electoral counts.
3. Washington, D.C. (which intrade aparently does not have a future for) votes for Obama.

Based on these assumptions and using the intrade.com prices, with 10,000,000 Monte Carlo trials, Obama wins the EC 9216556 times, Romney wins it 726216 times, and the EC is tied 57228 times. So Obama has about a 92.2% chance, Romney a 7.2% chance, and there is a 0.6% chance of a tie. Assuming the House would pick Romney in a tie, that gives Obama a 92.2% chance of winning re-election.

The last time a candidate with the same number of letters in his name as my candidate ran for President, that candidate won the election.

Therefore, if my candidate does not win the election, that is evidence a vast nationwide army of mute automatons rigged the election. QED.



.

 

[Dick Tuck]

Romney can't win without Ohio.

And Romney ain't winning Ohio.

Did you see his lame rally in Dayton today???

He had to prod the crowd into cheering.

oh well, he didn't have to MOVE a convention speech to a SMALLER venue because they couldn't fill ALL the seats like Obama did...

Liar. The venue was moved because thunder and lightning storms were moving in.

 

[Dick Tuck]

 

[Dick Tuck]

I just re-ran the simulation. Obama now has 96% odds of winning and his average electoral college vote is 315.

You're pretty close to Nate Silver's, "if the election were held today" model. He has Obama at 95.7, and the electoral count at 330. But his forecast model has Obama currently at 77.7% and 309.3 EVs.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

He does use a regression curve algorithm, which makes it a bit slower to consider new polls than Real Clear showing a trend, but it's a much better forecast model. He was the most accurate polling analyst in 2008.

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

I just re-ran the simulation. Obama now has 96% odds of winning and his average electoral college vote is 315.

You're pretty close to Nate Silver's, "if the election were held today" model. He has Obama at 95.7, and the electoral count at 330. But his forecast model has Obama currently at 77.7% and 309.3 EVs.

Election Forecasts - FiveThirtyEight Blog - NYTimes.com

He does use a regression curve algorithm, which makes it a bit slower to consider new polls than Real Clear showing a trend, but it's a much better forecast model. He was the most accurate polling analyst in 2008.

Hey thanks for the link!


BTW - All -

My odds now have it Obama 97% with 318 electoral votes