Electoral math says its nearly impossible for Romney to win - Obama has 92.2% chance

[Old Rocks]

President Obama 3.7.................9 polls, Obama leads in all

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

President Obama 6.8 Governor Romney -0.4

RealClearPolitics - Obama & Romney: Favorable/Unfavorable

President Obama 347 Governor Romney 191

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

No wonder the campaign contributions for Romney are drying up. Who wants to put their money on the horse with the broken leg?

 

[Stephanie]

President Obama 3.7.................9 polls, Obama leads in all

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

President Obama 6.8 Governor Romney -0.4

RealClearPolitics - Obama & Romney: Favorable/Unfavorable

President Obama 347 Governor Romney 191

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

No wonder the campaign contributions for Romney are drying up. Who wants to put their money on the horse with the broken leg?

so did Jimma Carter...

 

[jknowgood]

You have an odd definition of down.

Black label is using Fabian socialism to remake our country into Britain. The son of a bitch.

Matthew is using radical right wing hate and ignorance to try to remake the nation into a fascist reign like like saudi arabia or iran.

Lol, you talk about right hate, but in your last post you talk about kicking crap in conservative faces. your a looney liberal lol.

 

[Old Rocks]

But this is now, and Reagan never stated that he didn't give a damn about half of the American Voters.

 

[Avatar4321]

But this is now, and Reagan never stated that he didn't give a damn about half of the American Voters.

Neither did Romney. That's not going to stop you from ripping quotes out of context to lie about it though is it?

 

[Seawytch]

oh I don't know, probably because I LIVED through it..but hey if Slate says it's true than it MUST BE...lol

So you recall that the polls going into the Election were very close and that the thing that put old St. Ronald "over the top" was his debate performance? You remember that?

Do you think Willard RawMoney can come close to St. Ronnie's charisma and personality? Do you think President Obama will perform as poorly as Jimmy Carter did?

yes to all of the above
Romney doesn't have to be a Reagan, he just has to be NOT Obama

Is this alternate reality because you live in a Fox bubble? Delusions like this cannot be healthy.

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

This analysis is based on the state-by-state electoral college futures availble at intrade.com.

Assumptions:
1. Either Obama or Romney will win each vote.
2. Nebraska and Maine do not have split electoral counts.
3. Washington, D.C. (which intrade aparently does not have a future for) votes for Obama.

Based on these assumptions and using the intrade.com prices, with 10,000,000 Monte Carlo trials, Obama wins the EC 9216556 times, Romney wins it 726216 times, and the EC is tied 57228 times. So Obama has about a 92.2% chance, Romney a 7.2% chance, and there is a 0.6% chance of a tie. Assuming the House would pick Romney in a tie, that gives Obama a 92.2% chance of winning re-election.


Here is the code I used to generate this if anyone wants to reproduce it:

#include <stdio.h>
#include <stdlib.h>
#include <time.h>
#include <string.h>

#define BASE_ID 745711

char* names[50] = { "Alabama", "Alaska", "Arizona", "Arkansas", "California",
"Colorado", "Connecticut", "Delaware", "Florida", "Georgia", "Hawaii",
"Idaho", "Illinois", "Indiana", "Iowa", "Kansas", "Kentucky",
"Louisiana", "Maine", "Maryland", "Massachusetts", "Michigan",
"Minnesota", "Mississippi", "Missouri", "Montana", "Nebraska", "Nevada",
"New Hampshire", "New Jersey", "New Mexico", "New York",
"North Carolina", "North Dakota", "Ohio", "Oklahoma", "Oregon",
"Pennsylvania", "Rhode Island", "South Carolina", "South Dakota",
"Tennessee", "Texas", "Utah", "Vermont", "Virginia", "Washington",
"West Virginia", "Wisconsin", "Wyoming" };

int votes[50] = { 9, 3, 11, 6, 55, 9, 7, 3, 29, 16, 4, 4, 20, 11, 6, 6, 8, 8, 4,
10, 11, 16, 10, 6, 10, 3, 5, 6, 4, 14, 5, 29, 15, 3, 18, 7, 7, 20, 4, 9,
3, 11, 38, 6, 3, 13, 12, 5, 10, 3

};

double get_pct(int id) {
char get_str[128];
char buffer[1024];
char number[12];
int j;
FILE* fp;
char* ptr;
double pct;
id += BASE_ID;
sprintf(get_str,
"wget Intrade - Markets index.html?contractId=%i tmp.dat",
id, id);
system(get_str);
fp = fopen("tmp.dat", "rt");
for (j = 0; j < 305; j++) {
fgets(buffer, 1024, fp);
}
ptr = number;
for (j = 0; j <= strlen(buffer); j++) {
if (buffer[j] == '.' || isdigit(buffer[j])) {
*ptr = buffer[j];
ptr++;
}
}
*ptr = '\0';
//printf("%s\n", number);
pct = atof(number);
// printf("%f\n", pct);
fclose(fp);
system("rm tmp.dat");
}

double state_dem_odds(int i) {
double pct_r, pct_d, tot;
pct_d = get_pct(3 * i);
pct_r = get_pct(3 * i + 1);
tot = 0.0;
if (pct_r != 0.0) {
tot += pct_r;
}
if (pct_d != 0.0) {
tot += pct_d;
}
pct_d /= tot;
return pct_d;
}

double rand1() {
return ((double) (rand() & 0xFFFFFF) / (double) 0xFFFFFF);
}

int trial_dem_win(double odds[50], int* vcnt) {
int i;
int dcnt;
int rcnt;
dcnt = 3;
rcnt = 0;
for (i = 0; i < 50; i++) {
if (rand1() < odds) {
dcnt += votes;
} else {
rcnt += votes;
}
}
// printf("%i %i\n", dcnt, rcnt);
*vcnt = dcnt;
if (dcnt > rcnt) {
return 1;
} else if (dcnt < rcnt) {
return -1;
} else {
return 0;
}
}

int main(void) {
double D_odds[50];
int i;
int dw, rw, nw, dcnt;
double dcnt_avg;
int N = 10000000;
int w;
srand(time(NULL));
for (i = 0; i < 50; i++) {
D_odds = state_dem_odds(i);
}
for (i = 0; i < 50; i++) {
printf("%20s %i %f\n", names, votes, 100.0 * D_odds);
}
dcnt_avg= 0.0;
dw = rw = nw = 0;
for (i = 1; i <= N; i++) {
w = trial_dem_win(D_odds, &dcnt);
dcnt_avg = (dcnt_avg * (double) (i - 1) + (double) dcnt) / (double) i;
if (w > 0) {
dw++;
} else if (w < 0) {
rw++;
} else {
nw++;
}
if (i % 1000 == 0) {
printf("D: %i/%f R: %i/%f T: %i/%f %f \n", dw, dw / (double) i, rw,
rw / (double) i, nw, nw / (double) i, dcnt_avg);

}

}
}

GIGO

Garbage In, Garbage Out....

Make fun of whatever you can't understand.

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

The oh so confident left is sure spending a lot of time and energy attempting to convince everyone that Romney doesn't stand a chance.

He does stand a chance!

a 4% chance!

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

I don't pay attention to polls and think anyone who does is an idiot.

Seem to remember that Carter was ahead in the polls. I also remember Reagan won in a landslide. So much for polls.

Guess I'll wait till the day after the election to see who wins and which "poll" is correct.

Its not a poll moron.

Its a futures market.

 

[beretta304]

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

If Dewey had access to intrade.com he would have seen he was going to lose.

 

[Katzndogz]

In two weeks the "polls" will have obama at 100% chance of winning and democrats will want the election cancelled as a waste of money.

 

[beretta304]

Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

Analysis of election factors points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder

August 22, 2012

Over a month old genius.

 

[xsited1]

Intrade - Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 - 72.8% Chance.

Isn't that about the same chance that Obamacare would be ruled unconstitutional? I wish I had bought shares for that because I was pretty sure it would pass.

 

[Leweman]

Is that based on polls that are nearly impossible in terms of the actual turnout?

 

[beretta304]

The oh so confident left is sure spending a lot of time and energy attempting to convince everyone that Romney doesn't stand a chance.

He does stand a chance!

a 4% chance!

27.1 Lying sack of shit...at least be honest

Intrade - Mitt Romney to be elected President in 2012

 

[NYcarbineer]

President Obama 3.7.................9 polls, Obama leads in all

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

President Obama 6.8 Governor Romney -0.4

RealClearPolitics - Obama & Romney: Favorable/Unfavorable

President Obama 347 Governor Romney 191

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map No Toss Ups

No wonder the campaign contributions for Romney are drying up. Who wants to put their money on the horse with the broken leg?

so did Jimma Carter...

Given that Carter's approval was about 15 points below where Obama's is, and given that Reagan had about 1/100th the flip flops, gaffes, blunders, and outright unpopular positions that Romney has,

it's not a surprise that Reagan eventually won.

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

Intrade - Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 - 72.8% Chance.

Isn't that about the same chance that Obamacare would be ruled unconstitutional? I wish I had bought shares for that because I was pretty sure it would pass.

There is an inconsistency between the intrade.com state by state electoral college futures and the single future for the Presidency.

 

[xsited1]

Intrade - Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012

Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 - 72.8% Chance.

Isn't that about the same chance that Obamacare would be ruled unconstitutional? I wish I had bought shares for that because I was pretty sure it would pass.

There is an inconsistency between the intrade.com state by state electoral college futures and the single future for the Presidency.

Ah, that makes sense. I wonder if I should bet on Romney winning? I'd clean up if he did in fact win.