Electoral math says its nearly impossible for Romney to win - Obama has 92.2% chance

[OohPooPahDoo]

This analysis is based on the state-by-state electoral college futures availble at intrade.com.

Assumptions:
1. Either Obama or Romney will win each vote.
2. Nebraska and Maine do not have split electoral counts.
3. Washington, D.C. (which intrade aparently does not have a future for) votes for Obama.

Based on these assumptions and using the intrade.com prices, with 10,000,000 Monte Carlo trials, Obama wins the EC 9216556 times, Romney wins it 726216 times, and the EC is tied 57228 times. So Obama has about a 92.2% chance, Romney a 7.2% chance, and there is a 0.6% chance of a tie. Assuming the House would pick Romney in a tie, that gives Obama a 92.2% chance of winning re-election.


Here is the code I used to generate this if anyone wants to reproduce it:

#include <stdio.h>
#include <stdlib.h>
#include <time.h>
#include <string.h>

#define BASE_ID 745711

char* names[50] = { "Alabama", "Alaska", "Arizona", "Arkansas", "California",
"Colorado", "Connecticut", "Delaware", "Florida", "Georgia", "Hawaii",
"Idaho", "Illinois", "Indiana", "Iowa", "Kansas", "Kentucky",
"Louisiana", "Maine", "Maryland", "Massachusetts", "Michigan",
"Minnesota", "Mississippi", "Missouri", "Montana", "Nebraska", "Nevada",
"New Hampshire", "New Jersey", "New Mexico", "New York",
"North Carolina", "North Dakota", "Ohio", "Oklahoma", "Oregon",
"Pennsylvania", "Rhode Island", "South Carolina", "South Dakota",
"Tennessee", "Texas", "Utah", "Vermont", "Virginia", "Washington",
"West Virginia", "Wisconsin", "Wyoming" };

int votes[50] = { 9, 3, 11, 6, 55, 9, 7, 3, 29, 16, 4, 4, 20, 11, 6, 6, 8, 8, 4,
10, 11, 16, 10, 6, 10, 3, 5, 6, 4, 14, 5, 29, 15, 3, 18, 7, 7, 20, 4, 9,
3, 11, 38, 6, 3, 13, 12, 5, 10, 3

};

double get_pct(int id) {
char get_str[128];
char buffer[1024];
char number[12];
int j;
FILE* fp;
char* ptr;
double pct;
id += BASE_ID;
sprintf(get_str,
"wget Intrade - Markets index.html?contractId=%i tmp.dat",
id, id);
system(get_str);
fp = fopen("tmp.dat", "rt");
for (j = 0; j < 305; j++) {
fgets(buffer, 1024, fp);
}
ptr = number;
for (j = 0; j <= strlen(buffer); j++) {
if (buffer[j] == '.' || isdigit(buffer[j])) {
*ptr = buffer[j];
ptr++;
}
}
*ptr = '\0';
//printf("%s\n", number);
pct = atof(number);
// printf("%f\n", pct);
fclose(fp);
system("rm tmp.dat");
}

double state_dem_odds(int i) {
double pct_r, pct_d, tot;
pct_d = get_pct(3 * i);
pct_r = get_pct(3 * i + 1);
tot = 0.0;
if (pct_r != 0.0) {
tot += pct_r;
}
if (pct_d != 0.0) {
tot += pct_d;
}
pct_d /= tot;
return pct_d;
}

double rand1() {
return ((double) (rand() & 0xFFFFFF) / (double) 0xFFFFFF);
}

int trial_dem_win(double odds[50], int* vcnt) {
int i;
int dcnt;
int rcnt;
dcnt = 3;
rcnt = 0;
for (i = 0; i < 50; i++) {
if (rand1() < odds) {
dcnt += votes;
} else {
rcnt += votes;
}
}
// printf("%i %i\n", dcnt, rcnt);
*vcnt = dcnt;
if (dcnt > rcnt) {
return 1;
} else if (dcnt < rcnt) {
return -1;
} else {
return 0;
}
}

int main(void) {
double D_odds[50];
int i;
int dw, rw, nw, dcnt;
double dcnt_avg;
int N = 10000000;
int w;
srand(time(NULL));
for (i = 0; i < 50; i++) {
D_odds = state_dem_odds(i);
}
for (i = 0; i < 50; i++) {
printf("%20s %i %f\n", names, votes, 100.0 * D_odds);
}
dcnt_avg= 0.0;
dw = rw = nw = 0;
for (i = 1; i <= N; i++) {
w = trial_dem_win(D_odds, &dcnt);
dcnt_avg = (dcnt_avg * (double) (i - 1) + (double) dcnt) / (double) i;
if (w > 0) {
dw++;
} else if (w < 0) {
rw++;
} else {
nw++;
}
if (i % 1000 == 0) {
printf("D: %i/%f R: %i/%f T: %i/%f %f \n", dw, dw / (double) i, rw,
rw / (double) i, nw, nw / (double) i, dcnt_avg);

}

}
}

 

[Katzndogz]

That's right. obama is a shoo in. Never even close. Democrats don't even have to bother voting.

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

That's right. obama is a shoo in. Never even close. Democrats don't even have to bother voting.

Another Repubican voter demonstrating once again without a doubt that Republicans dislike people voting.

 

[konradv]

Mitt's pretty much given up, as that video shows. If you take the 47% won't vote for him because they don't pay income taxes and add in the Obama supporters that do pay taxes, it doesn't look like Romney has much of a chance. It'll be interesting to see if the big donors start saving their money for '16.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Dems listen to Michelle and bring your confused, lazy and knuckleheaded friend to the polls on Nov 2

 

[Dr.Traveler]

I came to pretty much the same conclusion this morning too.

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

I just re-ran the simulation. Obama now has 96% odds of winning and his average electoral college vote is 315.

 

[Rambunctious]

One word for ya,
Turnout!

 

[Dr.House]

Democrat tears will be so tasty after the election...

 

[Rambunctious]

The desire to remove Obama is stronger than the desire to retain him.

 

[Avatar4321]

Let's have the election anyway.

 

[CausingPAIN]

What's going on, love is in the air

​

 

[auditor0007]

One word for ya,
Turnout!

It is definitely important that Obama supporters do not fall for all the hype. While polls show him leading, Republicans have a much better record of showing up at the polls. While I am in the camp that believes this thing is pretty much over, I still realize Obama's lead is not that big, and if we get some kind of October surprise, a move of five points could give Romney the election. Here's the thing; if we do see a move in Romney's direction, it will happen across the board in all swing states. Since all swing states are close, it could definitely change the outcome.

Republicans do face an interesting dilemma; do they continue contributing to Romney's campaign hoping to change the outcome, or do they start concentrating on Senate and Congressional races? If they continue pouring money into Romney's campaign and he ends up getting blown out, it could actually change the outlook of many House and Senate races.

 

[Dr.House]

Barry will NOT get the turnout he got in 2008...

The polls are a joke...

It'll make the Democratic defeat that much more enjoyable...

 

[CausingPAIN]

One word for ya,
Turnout!

It is definitely important that Obama supporters do not fall for all the hype. While polls show him leading, Republicans have a much better record of showing up at the polls. While I am in the camp that believes this thing is pretty much over, I still realize Obama's lead is not that big, and if we get some kind of October surprise, a move of five points could give Romney the election. Here's the thing; if we do see a move in Romney's direction, it will happen across the board in all swing states. Since all swing states are close, it could definitely change the outcome.

Republicans do face an interesting dilemma; do they continue contributing to Romney's campaign hoping to change the outcome, or do they start concentrating on Senate and Congressional races? If they continue pouring money into Romney's campaign and he ends up getting blown out, it could actually change the outlook of many House and Senate races.

All this effort to true the vote. I feel surge in absentee ballots will be done so, ID won't be an issue for the true the vote Nazis

 

[P@triot]

This analysis is based on the state-by-state electoral college futures availble at intrade.com.

Assumptions:
1. Either Obama or Romney will win each vote.
2. Nebraska and Maine do not have split electoral counts.
3. Washington, D.C. (which intrade aparently does not have a future for) votes for Obama.

Based on these assumptions and using the intrade.com prices, with 10,000,000 Monte Carlo trials, Obama wins the EC 9216556 times, Romney wins it 726216 times, and the EC is tied 57228 times. So Obama has about a 92.2% chance, Romney a 7.2% chance, and there is a 0.6% chance of a tie. Assuming the House would pick Romney in a tie, that gives Obama a 92.2% chance of winning re-election.


Here is the code I used to generate this if anyone wants to reproduce it:

#include <stdio.h>
#include <stdlib.h>
#include <time.h>
#include <string.h>

#define BASE_ID 745711

char* names[50] = { "Alabama", "Alaska", "Arizona", "Arkansas", "California",
"Colorado", "Connecticut", "Delaware", "Florida", "Georgia", "Hawaii",
"Idaho", "Illinois", "Indiana", "Iowa", "Kansas", "Kentucky",
"Louisiana", "Maine", "Maryland", "Massachusetts", "Michigan",
"Minnesota", "Mississippi", "Missouri", "Montana", "Nebraska", "Nevada",
"New Hampshire", "New Jersey", "New Mexico", "New York",
"North Carolina", "North Dakota", "Ohio", "Oklahoma", "Oregon",
"Pennsylvania", "Rhode Island", "South Carolina", "South Dakota",
"Tennessee", "Texas", "Utah", "Vermont", "Virginia", "Washington",
"West Virginia", "Wisconsin", "Wyoming" };

int votes[50] = { 9, 3, 11, 6, 55, 9, 7, 3, 29, 16, 4, 4, 20, 11, 6, 6, 8, 8, 4,
10, 11, 16, 10, 6, 10, 3, 5, 6, 4, 14, 5, 29, 15, 3, 18, 7, 7, 20, 4, 9,
3, 11, 38, 6, 3, 13, 12, 5, 10, 3

};

double get_pct(int id) {
char get_str[128];
char buffer[1024];
char number[12];
int j;
FILE* fp;
char* ptr;
double pct;
id += BASE_ID;
sprintf(get_str,
"wget Intrade - Markets index.html?contractId=%i tmp.dat",
id, id);
system(get_str);
fp = fopen("tmp.dat", "rt");
for (j = 0; j < 305; j++) {
fgets(buffer, 1024, fp);
}
ptr = number;
for (j = 0; j <= strlen(buffer); j++) {
if (buffer[j] == '.' || isdigit(buffer[j])) {
*ptr = buffer[j];
ptr++;
}
}
*ptr = '\0';
//printf("%s\n", number);
pct = atof(number);
// printf("%f\n", pct);
fclose(fp);
system("rm tmp.dat");
}

double state_dem_odds(int i) {
double pct_r, pct_d, tot;
pct_d = get_pct(3 * i);
pct_r = get_pct(3 * i + 1);
tot = 0.0;
if (pct_r != 0.0) {
tot += pct_r;
}
if (pct_d != 0.0) {
tot += pct_d;
}
pct_d /= tot;
return pct_d;
}

double rand1() {
return ((double) (rand() & 0xFFFFFF) / (double) 0xFFFFFF);
}

int trial_dem_win(double odds[50], int* vcnt) {
int i;
int dcnt;
int rcnt;
dcnt = 3;
rcnt = 0;
for (i = 0; i < 50; i++) {
if (rand1() < odds) {
dcnt += votes;
} else {
rcnt += votes;
}
}
// printf("%i %i\n", dcnt, rcnt);
*vcnt = dcnt;
if (dcnt > rcnt) {
return 1;
} else if (dcnt < rcnt) {
return -1;
} else {
return 0;
}
}

int main(void) {
double D_odds[50];
int i;
int dw, rw, nw, dcnt;
double dcnt_avg;
int N = 10000000;
int w;
srand(time(NULL));
for (i = 0; i < 50; i++) {
D_odds = state_dem_odds(i);
}
for (i = 0; i < 50; i++) {
printf("%20s %i %f\n", names, votes, 100.0 * D_odds);
}
dcnt_avg= 0.0;
dw = rw = nw = 0;
for (i = 1; i <= N; i++) {
w = trial_dem_win(D_odds, &dcnt);
dcnt_avg = (dcnt_avg * (double) (i - 1) + (double) dcnt) / (double) i;
if (w > 0) {
dw++;
} else if (w < 0) {
rw++;
} else {
nw++;
}
if (i % 1000 == 0) {
printf("D: %i/%f R: %i/%f T: %i/%f %f \n", dw, dw / (double) i, rw,
rw / (double) i, nw, nw / (double) i, dcnt_avg);

}

}
}

GIGO

Garbage In, Garbage Out....

 

[Sherry]

The oh so confident left is sure spending a lot of time and energy attempting to convince everyone that Romney doesn't stand a chance.

 

[Dr.House]

The oh so confident left is sure spending a lot of time and energy attempting to convince everyone that Romney doesn't stand a chance.

They're hoping the NFL replacement refs oversee the election...

 

[P@triot]

I just re-ran the simulation. Obama now has 96% odds of winning and his average electoral college vote is 315.

Hey, run it one more time. Maybe you'll get it up to 101% (that would be typical of Dumbocrats who had a 110% voter turn out in Madison, WI for the Scott Walker re-call election and they still lost... )

 

[Black_Label]

The oh so confident left is sure spending a lot of time and energy attempting to convince everyone that Romney doesn't stand a chance.

No, it's just kicking shit in the faces of the right wing trash while they are down