Electoral math says its nearly impossible for Romney to win - Obama has 92.2% chance

Discussion in 'Election Forums' started by OohPooPahDoo, Sep 18, 2012.

  1. OohPooPahDoo
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    OohPooPahDoo Gold Member

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    This analysis is based on the state-by-state electoral college futures availble at intrade.com.

    Assumptions:
    1. Either Obama or Romney will win each vote.
    2. Nebraska and Maine do not have split electoral counts.
    3. Washington, D.C. (which intrade aparently does not have a future for) votes for Obama.

    Based on these assumptions and using the intrade.com prices, with 10,000,000 Monte Carlo trials, Obama wins the EC 9216556 times, Romney wins it 726216 times, and the EC is tied 57228 times. So Obama has about a 92.2% chance, Romney a 7.2% chance, and there is a 0.6% chance of a tie. Assuming the House would pick Romney in a tie, that gives Obama a 92.2% chance of winning re-election.


    Here is the code I used to generate this if anyone wants to reproduce it:

     
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  2. Katzndogz
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    Katzndogz Diamond Member

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    That's right. obama is a shoo in. Never even close. Democrats don't even have to bother voting.
     
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  3. OohPooPahDoo
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    OohPooPahDoo Gold Member

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    Another Repubican voter demonstrating once again without a doubt that Republicans dislike people voting.
     
  4. konradv
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    konradv Gold Member

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    Mitt's pretty much given up, as that video shows. If you take the 47% won't vote for him because they don't pay income taxes and add in the Obama supporters that do pay taxes, it doesn't look like Romney has much of a chance. It'll be interesting to see if the big donors start saving their money for '16.
     
  5. CrusaderFrank
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    CrusaderFrank Diamond Member

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    Dems listen to Michelle and bring your confused, lazy and knuckleheaded friend to the polls on Nov 2
     
  6. Dr.Traveler
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    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

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  7. OohPooPahDoo
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    OohPooPahDoo Gold Member

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    I just re-ran the simulation. Obama now has 96% odds of winning and his average electoral college vote is 315.
     
  8. Rambunctious
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    Rambunctious Gold Member

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    One word for ya,
    Turnout!
     
  9. Dr.House
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    Dr.House Lives on in syndication!

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    :lol:

    Democrat tears will be so tasty after the election...
     
  10. Rambunctious
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    Rambunctious Gold Member

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    The desire to remove Obama is stronger than the desire to retain him.
     

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