Electoral maps 2012

[Avatar4321]

You’re so stupid that you think using different numbersd and methods make sit odd that the results are different

I think he was just showing different polls.

Star is so stupid that he thinks showing different electoral maps with different results means I think it's odd that the results are different.

Seems pretty normal to me. Results are fluid dependent upon the group of people you talk to. Shocking isnt it?

 

[Avatar4321]

Is there a single state that McCan took that Obama could seriously try to challenge?

 

[rightwinger]

Romney will be the winner. I am in the entermainment industry, and alot of girls want to see PALIN as the veep choice. I hope he picks her.

I'm with you sis..

I hope he runs with Palin too

 

[Dick Tuck]

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

Obama 217
Romney 191

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

Obama 243
Romney 170

2012 Presidential Electoral Map | Huffington Post 2012 Election Dashboard



The Electoral Map - Presidential Race Ratings and Swing States - Election 2012 - NYTimes.com

Obama 217
Romney 206

Electoral Map - Election Center 2012 - Elections & Politics from CNN.com

Obama 196
Romney 159

those numbers are all over the place...

Most of your maps are based on conventional wisdom or are just playthings for doing what ifs. The only two that matter are Pollster's from Huff and Real Clears. The both are based on many polls, and are dynamic as the polls change.

Their underlying methods differ a bit. RC just uses the average of the last 5 polls, and uses 5 points to make a state lean. Pollster uses a trending technique, and uses 4 points to make a state lean. If you look at the underlying differences in their data, it's minor. Both have Ohio going for Obama, with between 4.2 and 4.5 points.

In the last election there were 3 sites that did this. Nate Silvers' 538, Pollsters, and Real Clear. Their predictions were less than a point different, and all three outperformed any specific polling group.

 

[Dick Tuck]

Is there a single state that McCan took that Obama could seriously try to challenge?

Arizona and Missouri are competitive.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Bottom line- it comes down to 5 states.

PA
OHIO
VA
NC
FL

If Romney wins these 5 states and their 95 electoral votes, it's all over.

I think that was the thinking about a month ago. But there's a lot of wiggle room still in my estimation. If it holds though, I'd say Romney needs to win 4 of those 5 states and he should be good.

I have faith that VA will come along, but I'm not certain. NC and FL are in the bag. Dick Morris believes PA is going to Romney, but I haven't seen enough evidence yet that it will. And Ohio, I just hope that we contain the Dems cheating there.

Again though, I think there are states out there like Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, etc that to varying degrees, Romney has a great shot at winning too. And if that's the case then those states won't be as pivotal as we think.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Interesting

Maine has largely slipped from the ranks of top battleground states, with Democrats winning here in the last five presidential elections. The same could be true this year, considering President Obama won by 17 percentage points in 2008. But Mitt Romney’s Northeastern roots – and the state’s Tea Party strain – make it worth watching. The Romney campaign will try to seize at least one electoral vote since Maine is one of two states that divide their allotment.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

How apathetic will the 08 Obama voters be? I don't think they're enthusiastic like Oregon progressives or hardcore like big city libs. I've been assuming that NM will go to Obama; but the verdict is not out yet.

President Obama recorded a 15-point victory over Senator John McCain in New Mexico four years ago, a margin that belied the history of the state’s hard-fought presidential elections. While Republicans carried the state in 2004 and elected a new governor in 2010, New Mexico is still viewed as Democratic-friendly terrain. Mitt Romney will campaign here, but his advisers concede that it is likely not one of their best opportunities to pick up electoral votes.

 

[Dick Tuck]

Interesting

Maine has largely slipped from the ranks of top battleground states, with Democrats winning here in the last five presidential elections. The same could be true this year, considering President Obama won by 17 percentage points in 2008. But Mitt Romney’s Northeastern roots – and the state’s Tea Party strain – make it worth watching. The Romney campaign will try to seize at least one electoral vote since Maine is one of two states that divide their allotment.

Since March, there were 3 polls which have Obama up between 8 and 23 points in Maine.

2012 Maine President: Romney vs. Obama | Latest Polls | Pollster | Huffington Post 2012 Election Dashboard

 

[JakeStarkey]

TGG makes a good point about Obama voters enthusiasm compared to that of 2008. In a similar strain, the excitement of the far right for MR is somewhat restrained. Both sides will attempt to energize the base and reach out to the center.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Interesting

Maine has largely slipped from the ranks of top battleground states, with Democrats winning here in the last five presidential elections. The same could be true this year, considering President Obama won by 17 percentage points in 2008. But Mitt Romney’s Northeastern roots – and the state’s Tea Party strain – make it worth watching. The Romney campaign will try to seize at least one electoral vote since Maine is one of two states that divide their allotment.

Since March, there were 3 polls which have Obama up between 8 and 23 points in Maine.

2012 Maine President: Romney vs. Obama | Latest Polls | Pollster | Huffington Post 2012 Election Dashboard

Much higher margin of error in a state like Maine.

 

[Dick Tuck]

McCain was at least competitive with Hispanic voters, because of his more moderate immigration stance. Mittens painted himself into a corner by pandering to the extremists on immigration policy. Expect Obama to spend a lot of money on Spanish language TV and Radio.

 

[Dick Tuck]

Interesting

Since March, there were 3 polls which have Obama up between 8 and 23 points in Maine.

2012 Maine President: Romney vs. Obama | Latest Polls | Pollster | Huffington Post 2012 Election Dashboard

Much higher margin of error in a state like Maine.

No, just fewer polls. And most were taken during the primary process.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

McCain was at least competitive with Hispanic voters, because of his more moderate immigration stance. Mittens painted himself into a corner by pandering to the extremists on immigration policy. Expect Obama to spend a lot of money on Spanish language TV and Radio.

McCain was a walking disaster. Anybody that is honest with themselves will admit that. We've moved on.

 

[Dick Tuck]

McCain was at least competitive with Hispanic voters, because of his more moderate immigration stance. Mittens painted himself into a corner by pandering to the extremists on immigration policy. Expect Obama to spend a lot of money on Spanish language TV and Radio.

McCain was a walking disaster. Anybody that is honest with themselves will admit that. We've moved on.

He still did reasonably well among Hispanics. So did Dubya. Do you disagree that Romney's change on immigration policy will hurt him with this demographic?

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

Since March, there were 3 polls which have Obama up between 8 and 23 points in Maine.

2012 Maine President: Romney vs. Obama | Latest Polls | Pollster | Huffington Post 2012 Election Dashboard

Much higher margin of error in a state like Maine.

No, just fewer polls. And most were taken during the primary process.

No. Much higher margin for error. There are reasons for that and it has nothing to do with fewer polls.

 

[TheGreatGatsby]

McCain was at least competitive with Hispanic voters, because of his more moderate immigration stance. Mittens painted himself into a corner by pandering to the extremists on immigration policy. Expect Obama to spend a lot of money on Spanish language TV and Radio.

McCain was a walking disaster. Anybody that is honest with themselves will admit that. We've moved on.

He still did reasonably well among Hispanics. So did Dubya. Do you disagree that Romney's change on immigration policy will hurt him with this demographic?

I don't think that immigration is the hot button issue that it was in 2008. This election is going to be about whether or not we think Obama has been a success. Frankly, he's been a failure.

 

[Dick Tuck]

Much higher margin of error in a state like Maine.

No, just fewer polls. And most were taken during the primary process.

No. Much higher margin for error. There are reasons for that and it has nothing to do with fewer polls.

The latest poll, done this month by Critical Insights, had an MOE of 4.

ME-2012 President: 50% Obama (D), 42% Romney (R) (Critical Insights 5/2-7))

 

[Dick Tuck]

McCain was a walking disaster. Anybody that is honest with themselves will admit that. We've moved on.

He still did reasonably well among Hispanics. So did Dubya. Do you disagree that Romney's change on immigration policy will hurt him with this demographic?

I don't think that immigration is the hot button issue that it was in 2008. This election is going to be about whether or not we think Obama has been a success. Frankly, he's been a failure.

I disagree. I think the exact opposite is true. The rhetoric coming from the right about immigration is much more extreme and inflammatory. Another very high priority for Hispanics is education. The GOP attempts to cut student loans, Pell Grants, and states cutting back on school spending is going to hurt Romney in a huge way. Obama's appointment of a Latina to the high court didn't hurt him either.

Lets not forget the way Nevada and Colorado shifted to blue side in the last election.

 

[Dont Taz Me Bro]

Is there a single state that McCan took that Obama could seriously try to challenge?

Arizona and Missouri are competitive.

No, they're not.