Electoral Map with No Tossups

[courseofhistory]

From Real Clear Politics

 

[blackhawk]

But there are toss up states.

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

Give Romney Colorado, Iowa, Florida, and Virginia, Obama still wins re-election 275 to 263.

 

[Listening]

Let's not have the election and let RealClear declare the winner.

There is still a great deal to occur once the conventions are over.

Romney is obviously spring loading his campaign for after the convention.

 

[candycorn]

From Real Clear Politics

That looks about right.

 

[GWV5903]

Give Romney Colorado, Iowa, Florida, and Virginia, Obama still wins re-election 275 to 263.

Romney will win PA...

 

[Ragnar]

From Real Clear Politics

That looks about right.

If elections were held by pollsters in mid-August.

 

[bripat9643]

From Real Clear Politics

They simply assigned all the toss-ups to Obama. Assign them to Romeny and then he has 350 electoral votes.

 

[bripat9643]

Give Romney Colorado, Iowa, Florida, and Virginia, Obama still wins re-election 275 to 263.

Romney will win PA...

He'll also win Florida and Wisconsin.

 

[courseofhistory]

The electoral math

It’s early in the head-to-head campaign, with some polls showing Romney ahead and others showing Obama. The deciding factor, of course, is the electoral college. It takes 270 to win. According to this analysis in the Washington Post, Obama has 196 electoral votes tied up, with 41 leaning his way (total=237). Romney has 170 solid, with 21 leaning (total=191). There are 110 electoral votes in play that could go for either candidate, which means that the election will be decided by nine states: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Wisconsin and Virginia.

Here is a likely scenario: Southern states break for Romney (Virginia 13, North Carolina 15, Florida 29; Total: 248) as do the Western states (Nevada 6, Colorado 9; total: 263), and throw in New Hampshire (4; Total: 267). The upper midwest states states go for Obama (Wisconsin 10, Iowa 6, Ohio 18, Pennsylvania 20; Total: 291). Obama wins.

Romney would have to get at least one of the upper midwest states, though the economically-depressed rustbelt tends to lurch to the Democrats. Then again, rural Iowa would be enough to elect Romney.

Do you see any of these states going in a different-than-predicted direction?

 

[hortysir]

From Real Clear Politics

The Interwebz are a great place.

You can dig and find anything to support your preconceived result

 

[courseofhistory]

From Real Clear Politics

The Interwebz are a great place.

You can dig and find anything to support your preconceived result

I suppose but it's not my preconceived result. It is just something I found as food for thought/interesting.