Electoral Map Math Favors Romney

[rightwinger]

depends on which electoral map you look at. While most have Obama ahead, I am unaware of one that has him at 334, and several have Romney within 20.

Real Clear is an average of all polls

It has Obama ahead 221 to 181 in non-swing states
They also have Obama ahead in eight of ten swing states giving Obama 334 if the election were held today

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/232395-cnn-poll-romney-claims-slight-edge-in-15-battleground-states.html#post5559048

However, in the 15 states CNN calls its battleground states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin — Romney leads Obama, 51 percent to 43 percent.

That is really quite meaningless unless you break it out state by state like Real Clear Politics does

 

[tinydancer]

Looking at recent polls, if the election were held today it appears Obama would win by a small margin.

The election's not today An awful lot could change between now and November. If yesterday's ISM numbers become a pattern Romney will gain a lot of votes.

If the election were held today Obama would win 334 to 206 in electoral votes

RealClearPolitics - Opinion, News, Analysis, Videos and Polls

Romney is not even close and will need a gamechanger to overtake the President

depends on which electoral map you look at. While most have Obama ahead, I am unaware of one that has him at 334, and several have Romney within 20.

I just put up a new CNN poll that has Romney ahead in swing states. 15 swing states. The article is interesting because its author blatantly takes a shot at that skewered NBC/WSJ poll.

 

[Katzndogz]

Poll: Romney Claims Slight Edge in 15 'Battleground' States - Yahoo! News

However, in the 15 states CNN calls its battleground states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin — Romney leads Obama, 51 percent to 43 percent. Notably, though, the CNN/ORC International group includes three states thought to be comfortably in the Romney column this cycle: Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri.

A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey contained a subsample of voters in 12 states, not the same 15 in this new survey. The NBC/Wall Street Journal did not include the aforementioned trio of states where Romney leads in the polls. It showed Obama leading in its 12 swing states by 8 points. However, those results cannot be compared to the CNN/ORC International poll's as they do not attempt to survey the same electorate and both have relatively small sample sizes (the NBC/Wall Street Journal swing-state sample was smaller).

obama is not only losing, but in full panic mode as he has to beg for more money and tell people that they have to max out.

US election: Barack Obama begs donors for more as Mitt Romney rakes it in - Telegraph

 

[Cowman]

Wait until September when the Conservatives being telling the American people the truth.

Liberalism will die with Obby. Have faith patriots, we will win.

And if you don't? Will you die?

 

[rightwinger]

Poll: Romney Claims Slight Edge in 15 'Battleground' States - Yahoo! News

However, in the 15 states CNN calls its battleground states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin — Romney leads Obama, 51 percent to 43 percent. Notably, though, the CNN/ORC International group includes three states thought to be comfortably in the Romney column this cycle: Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri.

A recent NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey contained a subsample of voters in 12 states, not the same 15 in this new survey. The NBC/Wall Street Journal did not include the aforementioned trio of states where Romney leads in the polls. It showed Obama leading in its 12 swing states by 8 points. However, those results cannot be compared to the CNN/ORC International poll's as they do not attempt to survey the same electorate and both have relatively small sample sizes (the NBC/Wall Street Journal swing-state sample was smaller).

obama is not only losing, but in full panic mode as he has to beg for more money and tell people that they have to max out.

US election: Barack Obama begs donors for more as Mitt Romney rakes it in - Telegraph

There is no relevance to pooling votes in all swing states to see who has the most votes. Unless you go state by state and assign electoral votes it is meaningless

 

[Conservative]

Real Clear is an average of all polls

It has Obama ahead 221 to 181 in non-swing states
They also have Obama ahead in eight of ten swing states giving Obama 334 if the election were held today

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/232395-cnn-poll-romney-claims-slight-edge-in-15-battleground-states.html#post5559048

However, in the 15 states CNN calls its battleground states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin — Romney leads Obama, 51 percent to 43 percent.

That is really quite meaningless unless you break it out state by state like Real Clear Politics does

How, exactly, is a list of 15 states Romney is ahead in 'not' broken out by state?

 

[swizzlee]

Trust me. John Kerry is NOT Mitt Romney.

Incumbent Rule

Citizen Dave: Tom Barrett could pull an upset in the recall | The Progressive

Just google undecideds break for challenger. The key is "traditionally." Nothing is ever good as gold but this is just another factor to consider.

 

[swizzlee]

Especially in light of the fact that incumbents overwhelmingly win

Except when they have negative job approval.

You flunked the test. Better do your homework next time.

 

[Avatar4321]

there is nothing traditional about this election. We shouldnt look at tradition to predict anything.

 

[rightwinger]

http://www.usmessageboard.com/politics/232395-cnn-poll-romney-claims-slight-edge-in-15-battleground-states.html#post5559048

That is really quite meaningless unless you break it out state by state like Real Clear Politics does

How, exactly, is a list of 15 states Romney is ahead in 'not' broken out by state?

He is not ahead in those 15 states.He is ahead in total votes from those states

Big difference

 

[rightwinger]

Especially in light of the fact that incumbents overwhelmingly win

Except when they have negative job approval.

You flunked the test. Better do your homework next time.

Obama does not have negative job approval.

Obama just needs better approval numbers than Romney and Romney ain't doing so well

 

[swizzlee]

Bwah-hah-hah-hah-hah!

Thanks for the belly laugh!

 

[Fang]

Obama would have to be caught in bed with a live man or a dead women to lose this election.

The sad thing is there are those such as yourself who would still vote for Obama.