Electoral college tie - this strange scenario is possible

[Quantum Windbag]

If neither candidate receives more than 269 electoral votes, the House of Representatives chooses from among the top three candidates, and the Senate from the top two.


This scenario is more likely than you might think! Take the current RCP map, which shows Obama with 251 likely votes and Romney with 181.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

If Obama wins the toss up state of Ohio and Romney wins the remainder of the toss-up states - no candiate has a majority!



So the House would choose, with each Congressional state delegation getting one vote, the President from the top three vote getters. This would easily be Romney. I haven't looked lately but there are like 37 state delegrations that are Republican. Even in the unlikely event the Democrats won the House back, state - by - state it would still be majority Republican. So barring any sort of absurdities, Romney wins the Presidency.

What of the Vice Presidency ? The Senate must choose from the top two voted for VP. If the Senate switches to Republican, its easily Ryan.

But what if the Senate remains Democrat? You'd think Biden, right? Strange enough - but not so fast! The electoral vote for Vice President is chosen by the Senate because no candidate received a majority - not because it was a tie! So if it appeared the election for Vice President would go to the Senate and the President would be Mitt Romney by choice of a the House, the electors could instead switch their votes, voting Obama for Vice President and Biden (or anyone else) for President. Romney still wins either way - except now the Senate would have to choose between Ryan and Obama for Vice President. So the President would be Mitt Romney and the Vice President would be Barrack Obama.

As if that wouldn't be strange enough - Obama would be eligible to run for President for the next term, and we would have the odd situation of a President Mitt Romney running against a Vice President Obama for the Presidency.

I see you are still reading blogs while we are paying you t pretend you are a scientist.

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

Yes, this can happen. I'm a Constitutional process nerd so I want to see it happen just so I get to see it once in my lifetime.

The more likely scenario in a tie though will be a lawsuit and a Supreme Court intervention.

Why would it go to the Supreme Court instead of to the House as is mandated?

It would go to the House. What many people don't know is this: The House would cast 50 votes for President. I thought it would be 435 votes but no; it would be 50 votes. Each delegation gets one vote. The Senate votes for the VP straight up 50 votes. So it is possible to have a scenario where Biden votes for himself in a tie situation thus giving him the Vice Presidency....

The VP has no say in it, the 12th amendment requires that

a quorum for the purpose shall consist of two-thirds of the whole number of Senators, and a majority of the whole number shall be necessary to a choice.

So the choice for VP requires a majority of the whole number of Senators. This means that if there are 100 Senators, 51 must vote for the VP candidate for him to win. 50 would not be enough, even 50-49 and 1 abstaining isn't enough. (50 would be enough if there were 1 vacancy)


EDIT - The 12th amendment similarly requires a majority of the number of states - not of the number of states casting votes. So if 25 states voted for candidate A, and the other 25 were all evenly split and cast no vote - candidate A would still not win, you need 26 no matter what.

 

[jwoodie]

Interesting post- thanks!

 

[kwc57]

I know this is going to raise a storm, but many, many reports on various blogs indicate the Electoral College results will be huge for the governor. The Left Coast, Illinois, New York and some other eastern states will [barely] go for King Barry while Pres Romney will handily win the rest.

Blogs? Wow.

Electoral-Vote, 270towin, Real Clear Politics, and Rasmussen have an Electoral College victory for Obama at the moment. So, yeah.....

Obama could have cinched this thing at the first debate. Instead he massively blew it. That means Romney still has a shot, but the real question is can he keep throwing his positions away for long and not get called on it.

BTW: As a Conservative it should really bother you that Romney is tossing you all under the bus.

Actually, no. They show him with more locked up electoral votes than Romney, but not enough to win. What they show are about 120 toss up votes that given enough, could put either over the top. Until we know how those 120 will go, you can't talk victory.

 

[JakeStarkey]

kwc57 and Dr. Traveler seem to have it figured out. Longknife is simply "feeling" the rush without thinking it through.

Tomorrow night's debate is the starting gate to the final sprint.

 

[Ernie S.]

If neither candidate receives more than 269 electoral votes, the House of Representatives chooses from among the top three candidates, and the Senate from the top two.


This scenario is more likely than you might think! Take the current RCP map, which shows Obama with 251 likely votes and Romney with 181.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

If Obama wins the toss up state of Ohio and Romney wins the remainder of the toss-up states - no candiate has a majority!



So the House would choose, with each Congressional state delegation getting one vote, the President from the top three vote getters. This would easily be Romney. I haven't looked lately but there are like 37 state delegrations that are Republican. Even in the unlikely event the Democrats won the House back, state - by - state it would still be majority Republican. So barring any sort of absurdities, Romney wins the Presidency.

What of the Vice Presidency ? The Senate must choose from the top two voted for VP. If the Senate switches to Republican, its easily Ryan.

But what if the Senate remains Democrat? You'd think Biden, right? Strange enough - but not so fast! The electoral vote for Vice President is chosen by the Senate because no candidate received a majority - not because it was a tie! So if it appeared the election for Vice President would go to the Senate and the President would be Mitt Romney by choice of a the House, the electors could instead switch their votes, voting Obama for Vice President and Biden (or anyone else) for President. Romney still wins either way - except now the Senate would have to choose between Ryan and Obama for Vice President. So the President would be Mitt Romney and the Vice President would be Barrack Obama.

As if that wouldn't be strange enough - Obama would be eligible to run for President for the next term, and we would have the odd situation of a President Mitt Romney running against a Vice President Obama for the Presidency.

I don't see the Democrats holding the Senate. Seeing that Electoral votes are not officially counted until January 6th, the new Senate would be seated and a GOP Senate would not elect obama.

 

[JakeStarkey]

Ernie S., I might be wrong, but I think the lame duck Congress does the choosing before inauguration.

If neither candidate receives more than 269 electoral votes, the House of Representatives chooses from among the top three candidates, and the Senate from the top two.


This scenario is more likely than you might think! Take the current RCP map, which shows Obama with 251 likely votes and Romney with 181.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

If Obama wins the toss up state of Ohio and Romney wins the remainder of the toss-up states - no candiate has a majority!



So the House would choose, with each Congressional state delegation getting one vote, the President from the top three vote getters. This would easily be Romney. I haven't looked lately but there are like 37 state delegrations that are Republican. Even in the unlikely event the Democrats won the House back, state - by - state it would still be majority Republican. So barring any sort of absurdities, Romney wins the Presidency.

What of the Vice Presidency ? The Senate must choose from the top two voted for VP. If the Senate switches to Republican, its easily Ryan.

But what if the Senate remains Democrat? You'd think Biden, right? Strange enough - but not so fast! The electoral vote for Vice President is chosen by the Senate because no candidate received a majority - not because it was a tie! So if it appeared the election for Vice President would go to the Senate and the President would be Mitt Romney by choice of a the House, the electors could instead switch their votes, voting Obama for Vice President and Biden (or anyone else) for President. Romney still wins either way - except now the Senate would have to choose between Ryan and Obama for Vice President. So the President would be Mitt Romney and the Vice President would be Barrack Obama.

As if that wouldn't be strange enough - Obama would be eligible to run for President for the next term, and we would have the odd situation of a President Mitt Romney running against a Vice President Obama for the Presidency.

I don't see the Democrats holding the Senate. Seeing that Electoral votes are not officially counted until January 6th, the new Senate would be seated and a GOP Senate would not elect obama.

 

[kwc57]

kwc57 and Dr. Traveler seem to have it figured out. Longknife is simply "feeling" the rush without thinking it through.

Tomorrow night's debate is the starting gate to the final sprint.

Well, what I've figured out is what I knew all along. Obama has had the advantage of an adoring media running cover for him. That and many in the electorate who waited until the debates to tune in. I've always known that once Obama had to actually stand on a stage against Romney with more Americans watching than ever, the truth would come out. Obama can't defend his record and Romney can't continue to be made out as a buffoon. The tide is turning now that a little sunlight has been cast on the process. I think the polls will continue to turn to Romney's favor and eventually the EC votes will as well.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

I know this is going to raise a storm, but many, many reports on various blogs indicate the Electoral College results will be huge for the governor. The Left Coast, Illinois, New York and some other eastern states will [barely] go for King Barry while Pres Romney will handily win the rest.

Blogs? Wow.

Electoral-Vote, 270towin, Real Clear Politics, and Rasmussen have an Electoral College victory for Obama at the moment. So, yeah.....

Obama could have cinched this thing at the first debate. Instead he massively blew it. That means Romney still has a shot, but the real question is can he keep throwing his positions away for long and not get called on it.

BTW: As a Conservative it should really bother you that Romney is tossing you all under the bus.

Actually, no. They show him with more locked up electoral votes than Romney, but not enough to win. What they show are about 120 toss up votes that given enough, could put either over the top. Until we know how those 120 will go, you can't talk victory.

When I posted this RCP and Rasmussen had Obama up in enough of the toss up states to win the Electoral College. Haven't honestly looked today.

I will say this: The election simulator at 270towin had Obama beating Romney something like 90% of the time prior to the debate. Now it has it at Obama beating Romney something like 70% of the time. Romney has moved things towards a possible victory, just not quite enough yet. He still has some ground to cover to win.

EDIT: Yeah, this morning Rasmussen hasn't changed. He still shows Obama up in enough toss up states to get past 270.

 

[kwc57]

Blogs? Wow.

Electoral-Vote, 270towin, Real Clear Politics, and Rasmussen have an Electoral College victory for Obama at the moment. So, yeah.....

Obama could have cinched this thing at the first debate. Instead he massively blew it. That means Romney still has a shot, but the real question is can he keep throwing his positions away for long and not get called on it.

BTW: As a Conservative it should really bother you that Romney is tossing you all under the bus.

Actually, no. They show him with more locked up electoral votes than Romney, but not enough to win. What they show are about 120 toss up votes that given enough, could put either over the top. Until we know how those 120 will go, you can't talk victory.

When I posted this RCP and Rasmussen had Obama up in enough of the toss up states to win the Electoral College. Haven't honestly looked today.

I will say this: The election simulator at 270towin had Obama beating Romney something like 90% of the time prior to the debate. Now it has it at Obama beating Romney something like 70% of the time. Romney has moved things towards a possible victory, just not quite enough yet. He still has some ground to cover to win.

EDIT: Yeah, this morning Rasmussen hasn't changed. He still shows Obama up in enough toss up states to get past 270.

RealClear Politics electoral map shows Obama with a lead of 20 today with 156 toss-up. It's anybody's game at this point......although it is trending towards Romney now.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Check the results in the swing states. He's still up in enough to win.

There is momentum there for Romney, but we've seen this with Romney before. He had momentum time and time again in the nomination process and just couldn't follow through.

Now, if Romney can follow up, he's got a shot to win. That's more than he had before the debate. The problem is Romney is already backpedaling instead of following through. He's been flip flopping on Abortion and having to explain how he's not flip flopping. Great way to follow through.