Electoral college tie - this strange scenario is possible

[OohPooPahDoo]

If neither candidate receives more than 269 electoral votes, the House of Representatives chooses from among the top three candidates, and the Senate from the top two.


This scenario is more likely than you might think! Take the current RCP map, which shows Obama with 251 likely votes and Romney with 181.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

If Obama wins the toss up state of Ohio and Romney wins the remainder of the toss-up states - no candiate has a majority!



So the House would choose, with each Congressional state delegation getting one vote, the President from the top three vote getters. This would easily be Romney. I haven't looked lately but there are like 37 state delegrations that are Republican. Even in the unlikely event the Democrats won the House back, state - by - state it would still be majority Republican. So barring any sort of absurdities, Romney wins the Presidency.

What of the Vice Presidency ? The Senate must choose from the top two voted for VP. If the Senate switches to Republican, its easily Ryan.

But what if the Senate remains Democrat? You'd think Biden, right? Strange enough - but not so fast! The electoral vote for Vice President is chosen by the Senate because no candidate received a majority - not because it was a tie! So if it appeared the election for Vice President would go to the Senate and the President would be Mitt Romney by choice of a the House, the electors could instead switch their votes, voting Obama for Vice President and Biden (or anyone else) for President. Romney still wins either way - except now the Senate would have to choose between Ryan and Obama for Vice President. So the President would be Mitt Romney and the Vice President would be Barrack Obama.

As if that wouldn't be strange enough - Obama would be eligible to run for President for the next term, and we would have the odd situation of a President Mitt Romney running against a Vice President Obama for the Presidency.

 

[Conservative]

was your sanity ever tested? It should be.

 

[beretta304]

If neither candidate receives more than 269 electoral votes, the House of Representatives chooses from among the top three candidates, and the Senate from the top two.


This scenario is more likely than you might think! Take the current RCP map, which shows Obama with 251 likely votes and Romney with 181.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

If Obama wins the toss up state of Ohio and Romney wins the remainder of the toss-up states - no candiate has a majority!



So the House would choose, with each Congressional state delegation getting one vote, the President from the top three vote getters. This would easily be Romney. I haven't looked lately but there are like 37 state delegrations that are Republican. Even in the unlikely event the Democrats won the House back, state - by - state it would still be majority Republican. So barring any sort of absurdities, Romney wins the Presidency.

What of the Vice Presidency ? The Senate must choose from the top two voted for VP. If the Senate switches to Republican, its easily Ryan.

But what if the Senate remains Democrat? You'd think Biden, right? Strange enough - but not so fast! The electoral vote for Vice President is chosen by the Senate because no candidate received a majority - not because it was a tie! So if it appeared the election for Vice President would go to the Senate and the President would be Mitt Romney by choice of a the House, the electors could instead switch their votes, voting Obama for Vice President and Biden (or anyone else) for President. Romney still wins either way - except now the Senate would have to choose between Ryan and Obama for Vice President. So the President would be Mitt Romney and the Vice President would be Barrack Obama.

As if that wouldn't be strange enough - Obama would be eligible to run for President for the next term, and we would have the odd situation of a President Mitt Romney running against a Vice President Obama for the Presidency.

Don't lose sleep worrying about it.

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

was your sanity ever tested? It should be.

Is the math that hard for your dumb ass to understand ? 251 + 18 = 269. If Obama has 269 then Romney also has 269.

Are you with me so far?

 

[kwc57]

Not to worry, Romney will win handily.

Updated election forecasting model still points to Romney win, University of Colorado study says | University of Colorado Boulder

"According to their updated analysis, Romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 Electoral College votes. President Barack Obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win."

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

not to worry, romney will win handily.

updated election forecasting model still points to romney win, university of colorado study says | university of colorado boulder

"according to their updated analysis, romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 electoral college votes. President barack obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win."

the new forecast by political science professors kenneth bickers of cu-boulder and michael berry of cu denver is based on more recent economic data than their original aug. 22 prediction.

lol!

 

[kwc57]

not to worry, romney will win handily.

updated election forecasting model still points to romney win, university of colorado study says | university of colorado boulder

"according to their updated analysis, romney is projected to receive 330 of the total 538 electoral college votes. President barack obama is expected to receive 208 votes -- down five votes from their initial prediction -- and short of the 270 needed to win."

the new forecast by political science professors kenneth bickers of cu-boulder and michael berry of cu denver is based on more recent economic data than their original aug. 22 prediction.

lol!

You do realize that their model has accurately predicted every presidential race since 1980 don't you? When the actual voting takes place and Obama doesn't have the media or pollsters skewing things in his favor, there will be a whole lot of shocked liberals calling for sack cloth and ashes when he gets beaten so badly. Of course, just like the debate, the left will claim he "cheated" to win.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Yes, this can happen. I'm a Constitutional process nerd so I want to see it happen just so I get to see it once in my lifetime.

The more likely scenario in a tie though will be a lawsuit and a Supreme Court intervention.

 

[ShootSpeeders]

Yes, this can happen. I'm a Constitutional process nerd so I want to see it happen just so I get to see it once in my lifetime.

The more likely scenario in a tie though will be a lawsuit and a Supreme Court intervention.

The supreme court has no right to get into this. They did it in 2000 and it was as wrong as anything can be.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Yes, this can happen. I'm a Constitutional process nerd so I want to see it happen just so I get to see it once in my lifetime.

The more likely scenario in a tie though will be a lawsuit and a Supreme Court intervention.

The supreme court has no right to get into this. They did it in 2000 and it was as wrong as anything can be.

Actually, we agree on this. Intervention in the 2000 election was ABSOLUTELY wrong as voting procedures is a State's Rights issue unless you violate the Equal Protection clauses in the Constitution. The original argument was that those clauses were violated, IIRC, but it was an incredibly shaky argument meant to open the door for the Supreme Court to get involved.

They should have left it to the State, and failing resolution there, to the Constitutional methods for selection.

 

[candycorn]

If neither candidate receives more than 269 electoral votes, the House of Representatives chooses from among the top three candidates, and the Senate from the top two.


This scenario is more likely than you might think! Take the current RCP map, which shows Obama with 251 likely votes and Romney with 181.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

If Obama wins the toss up state of Ohio and Romney wins the remainder of the toss-up states - no candiate has a majority!



So the House would choose, with each Congressional state delegation getting one vote, the President from the top three vote getters. This would easily be Romney. I haven't looked lately but there are like 37 state delegrations that are Republican. Even in the unlikely event the Democrats won the House back, state - by - state it would still be majority Republican. So barring any sort of absurdities, Romney wins the Presidency.

What of the Vice Presidency ? The Senate must choose from the top two voted for VP. If the Senate switches to Republican, its easily Ryan.

But what if the Senate remains Democrat? You'd think Biden, right? Strange enough - but not so fast! The electoral vote for Vice President is chosen by the Senate because no candidate received a majority - not because it was a tie! So if it appeared the election for Vice President would go to the Senate and the President would be Mitt Romney by choice of a the House, the electors could instead switch their votes, voting Obama for Vice President and Biden (or anyone else) for President. Romney still wins either way - except now the Senate would have to choose between Ryan and Obama for Vice President. So the President would be Mitt Romney and the Vice President would be Barrack Obama.

As if that wouldn't be strange enough - Obama would be eligible to run for President for the next term, and we would have the odd situation of a President Mitt Romney running against a Vice President Obama for the Presidency.

Mathematically it is possible. It is impossible this year; Obama will get 300-320 EVs.

 

[Avatar4321]

Yes, this can happen. I'm a Constitutional process nerd so I want to see it happen just so I get to see it once in my lifetime.

The more likely scenario in a tie though will be a lawsuit and a Supreme Court intervention.

Why would it go to the Supreme Court instead of to the House as is mandated?

 

[candycorn]

Yes, this can happen. I'm a Constitutional process nerd so I want to see it happen just so I get to see it once in my lifetime.

The more likely scenario in a tie though will be a lawsuit and a Supreme Court intervention.

Why would it go to the Supreme Court instead of to the House as is mandated?

It would go to the House. What many people don't know is this: The House would cast 50 votes for President. I thought it would be 435 votes but no; it would be 50 votes. Each delegation gets one vote. The Senate votes for the VP straight up 50 votes. So it is possible to have a scenario where Biden votes for himself in a tie situation thus giving him the Vice Presidency....

 

[skookerasbil]

Sweets........best prepare yourself and Im not even kidding here.........but your guy is going to lose by 100 electoral votes give or take a few.

 

[candycorn]

Sweets........best prepare yourself and Im not even kidding here.........but your guy is going to lose by 100 electoral votes give or take a few.

Obama won't beat the Governor that bad but Mitt is going to lose. Shame; he's a good guy. He deserved a better party than what he got.

I do like how the GOP has now embraced moderation as their platform--all within the last 6 days; add "conservative principles" to the garbage can where you guys tossed "family values" a few years ago.

 

[Dr.Traveler]

Sweets........best prepare yourself and Im not even kidding here.........but your guy is going to lose by 100 electoral votes give or take a few.

No, probably not. This will be a far closer election in the Electoral college than that.

At this point I still think Obama will win, but man, dropping the ball on that first debate really hurt him.

 

[longknife]

I know this is going to raise a storm, but many, many reports on various blogs indicate the Electoral College results will be huge for the governor. The Left Coast, Illinois, New York and some other eastern states will [barely] go for King Barry while Pres Romney will handily win the rest.

 

[thanatos144]

the conspiracy excuses are starting huh????

 

[Dr.Traveler]

I know this is going to raise a storm, but many, many reports on various blogs indicate the Electoral College results will be huge for the governor. The Left Coast, Illinois, New York and some other eastern states will [barely] go for King Barry while Pres Romney will handily win the rest.

Blogs? Wow.

Electoral-Vote, 270towin, Real Clear Politics, and Rasmussen have an Electoral College victory for Obama at the moment. So, yeah.....

Obama could have cinched this thing at the first debate. Instead he massively blew it. That means Romney still has a shot, but the real question is can he keep throwing his positions away for long and not get called on it.

BTW: As a Conservative it should really bother you that Romney is tossing you all under the bus.

 

[JakeStarkey]

President Adams ran against Vice-President Jefferson in 1800.

If neither candidate receives more than 269 electoral votes, the House of Representatives chooses from among the top three candidates, and the Senate from the top two.


This scenario is more likely than you might think! Take the current RCP map, which shows Obama with 251 likely votes and Romney with 181.

RealClearPolitics - 2012 Election Maps - Electoral Map

If Obama wins the toss up state of Ohio and Romney wins the remainder of the toss-up states - no candiate has a majority!



So the House would choose, with each Congressional state delegation getting one vote, the President from the top three vote getters. This would easily be Romney. I haven't looked lately but there are like 37 state delegrations that are Republican. Even in the unlikely event the Democrats won the House back, state - by - state it would still be majority Republican. So barring any sort of absurdities, Romney wins the Presidency.

What of the Vice Presidency ? The Senate must choose from the top two voted for VP. If the Senate switches to Republican, its easily Ryan.

But what if the Senate remains Democrat? You'd think Biden, right? Strange enough - but not so fast! The electoral vote for Vice President is chosen by the Senate because no candidate received a majority - not because it was a tie! So if it appeared the election for Vice President would go to the Senate and the President would be Mitt Romney by choice of a the House, the electors could instead switch their votes, voting Obama for Vice President and Biden (or anyone else) for President. Romney still wins either way - except now the Senate would have to choose between Ryan and Obama for Vice President. So the President would be Mitt Romney and the Vice President would be Barrack Obama.

As if that wouldn't be strange enough - Obama would be eligible to run for President for the next term, and we would have the odd situation of a President Mitt Romney running against a Vice President Obama for the Presidency.