Electoral battle: Romney vs. Santorum

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Missourian, Mar 18, 2012.

  1. Missourian
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    Missourian Gold Member

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    If the GOP base was energized like 2010, I would agree that VA and NC were easy pick offs for the GOP. But as is apparent, Romney isn't energizing the base at all.

    Look at our website, do you see anyone doing back flips over Romney?

    The only folks really enthused about Romney are the ones who are opposed to social conservatives.

    IOW, even Romney supporters only support what he's not, not what he is.

    That doesn't translate into victory.

    Santorum at least has a come from behind victory to energize the base.

    The scrappy underdog that overcame the GOP Establishment and a 10 to 1 spending deficit to topple the anointed "inevitable" nominee.

    It take 270 Electoral Votes to win the Presidency.

    Santorum can take Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, his home state of Pennsylvania and Iowa (all 2012 swing states) plus all the traditionally Red states. That's 264 right there.

    If he wins FL, CO, WI, or MI...it's over, he wins...or a combination of any two of NM, NV and NH.


    Conversely, Romney loses Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri and Iowa and holds on to the traditional Red States...Obama has 260.

    If he loses FL, OH, MI, WI, or a combination of any two CO, NV, NM, NH he loses and Obama wins.

    2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College
     
  2. California Girl
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    California Girl BANNED

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    I support him because, on the economy, he's the best of the bunch.... including Obama. Not hard.
     
  3. JoeB131
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    JoeB131 Diamond Member

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    actually, Obama's threshold is not that high.

    Let's assume that he wins every state that was won by Kerry, Gore and Obama. - That puts him at 242.

    Let's also assume that Romney carries every state that McCain carried. That gives him 179 if you take out the one elector that Obama won in Nebraska.

    So really, Romnuts (or Santorum) has to find another 91 EV's while Obama has to find a mere twenty-eight.

    You have three states that Obama Carried and Bush only carried once. (NM, IA in 2004, NH in 2000). This is another 15 EV. I think NM will be in Obama's column regardless. I think Romney is competitive in NH while Santorum is competitive in Iowa. So assume that we can add 9-11 to Obama's total. Santorum in Iowa actually gets the GOP two more votes than Romney in New Hampshire.

    But for sake of this discussion, let's give the GOP both IA and NH. That puts Obama at 247 and GOP at 189. Obama just needs 23 more, GOP needs 81 more.

    NOw we get to the fun ones. States that were carried by Bush both times, but Obama managed to pick off in 2008. These are NV (6) CO (9) IN (11) OH (18) VA (13) NC (15) and FL (29) and the one loose vote in Nebraska, which allocates it's electors by district. The Republican would need to get almost all of those to win. That's a total of 102 votes. Obama can win by merely picking off FL, or by CO and NC, or OH and NV. The only one that is an easy Romney Win is IN, because that was a fluke in 2008.

    We can leave a state by state discussion for later, but then we have three states that are outside the parameters I just set down. - PA (20), which has that huge area between Philly and Pittsburgh that sent Santorum to the Senate twice.

    MO- (10) which McCain only won by 5000 votes, and has a history of not being terribly fond of guys in Magic Underwear.

    AZ- (11) Which was dicy for Bush in 2008, McCain carried it because it was his home state, but the actions of Janet Brewer has really energized Hispanics into registering and being active.

    Let's assume worst case for Romney. He loses all the swing states except Indiana, and Obama pulls off surprises in MO and AZ. That's 359 to 179. A route.

    Let's conversely look at worst case Senario for Obama. He loses all the swing states except New Mexico. That's a 311-227 route.

    The thing is, Santorum gets us closer to the bigger prizes- PA, OH, MO, VA, NC - than Romney does. Romney maybe gets us AZ and NV and CO. Maybe FL if he picks Rubio.
     
  4. Avorysuds
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    Avorysuds Gold Member

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    And because Mitt adds dramatically to the deficit, don't forget that part. =D

    For the record Santorum can’t win in the GE, it’s just not possible being he is a religious whack job while at the same time being a progressive liberal when it comes to spending.
     
  5. AquaAthena
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    AquaAthena INTJ/ INFJ

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    Well Romney picked up 20 delegates today in Puerto Rico:


    Before Puerto Rico's vote was in, Romney had 501 delegates in his camp and Santorum had 253, according to The Associated Press' tally. Gingrich trailed with 136 delegates and Paul had 50.

    At that rate, Romney is on pace to capture the nomination in June unless Santorum or Gingrich is able to win decisively in the coming contests.

    "I know a lot of people will talk about delegates and strategies and math and that's all very interesting to the insiders. But I think the American people want to see someone who has the leadership, skill and experience to beat the president," Romney told "Fox News Sunday." :clap2:

    "I can't tell you exactly how the process is going to work. But I bet I'm going to become the nominee," Romney said.


    Read more: Romney Wins In Puerto Rico While Focused On Illinois | Fox News
     
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  6. Katzndogz
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    Katzndogz Diamond Member

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    Whether Santorum can win the GE depends not on how much Santorum is liked, but on how much obama is despised.

    Romney will get the nomination and all those Santorum voters will vote for him. Compared to obama Romney is fantastic.
     
  7. Grampa Murked U
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    Grampa Murked U Diamond Member

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    We are in uncharted territory so to speak.

    Many bad first time occurences under Obama plus terrible UE numbers and wars he didnt end as promise. Hell im just going to stop there.

    Point being we elected a no experienced widely unknown on his first run. Anything is possible and i wont be making any bets.
     
  8. LoneLaugher
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    LoneLaugher Diamond Member

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    You have said that. Can you prove it?
     
  9. Kevin_Kennedy
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    Kevin_Kennedy Defend Liberty

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    I'm going to predict that it doesn't matter who the Republican nominee is, Obama is going to win Ohio. Kasich handed the state to Obama on a silver platter with SB5. The only way Ohio's in play is if the nominee picks Rob Portman for VP, in my opinion.
     
  10. CausingPAIN
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    CausingPAIN BANNED

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    And we can get to a winner faster, so that he will be the loser to Obama anyhow!... hahahahaha! Keep up with your sick attacks on women right’s to be equal to a man and a voter assholes.. They will show you to the masturbation only section for the next four years of the loser's life style this time around. As I get pussy! Assholes... As girls are great!
     
    Last edited: Mar 18, 2012

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