Electoral battle: Romney vs. Santorum

[Missourian]

If the GOP base was energized like 2010, I would agree that VA and NC were easy pick offs for the GOP. But as is apparent, Romney isn't energizing the base at all.

Look at our website, do you see anyone doing back flips over Romney?

The only folks really enthused about Romney are the ones who are opposed to social conservatives.

IOW, even Romney supporters only support what he's not, not what he is.

That doesn't translate into victory.

Santorum at least has a come from behind victory to energize the base.

The scrappy underdog that overcame the GOP Establishment and a 10 to 1 spending deficit to topple the anointed "inevitable" nominee.

It take 270 Electoral Votes to win the Presidency.

Santorum can take Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, his home state of Pennsylvania and Iowa (all 2012 swing states) plus all the traditionally Red states. That's 264 right there.

If he wins FL, CO, WI, or MI...it's over, he wins...or a combination of any two of NM, NV and NH.


Conversely, Romney loses Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri and Iowa and holds on to the traditional Red States...Obama has 260.

If he loses FL, OH, MI, WI, or a combination of any two CO, NV, NM, NH he loses and Obama wins.

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

 

[California Girl]

I support him because, on the economy, he's the best of the bunch.... including Obama. Not hard.

 

[JoeB131]

actually, Obama's threshold is not that high.

Let's assume that he wins every state that was won by Kerry, Gore and Obama. - That puts him at 242.

Let's also assume that Romney carries every state that McCain carried. That gives him 179 if you take out the one elector that Obama won in Nebraska.

So really, Romnuts (or Santorum) has to find another 91 EV's while Obama has to find a mere twenty-eight.

You have three states that Obama Carried and Bush only carried once. (NM, IA in 2004, NH in 2000). This is another 15 EV. I think NM will be in Obama's column regardless. I think Romney is competitive in NH while Santorum is competitive in Iowa. So assume that we can add 9-11 to Obama's total. Santorum in Iowa actually gets the GOP two more votes than Romney in New Hampshire.

But for sake of this discussion, let's give the GOP both IA and NH. That puts Obama at 247 and GOP at 189. Obama just needs 23 more, GOP needs 81 more.

NOw we get to the fun ones. States that were carried by Bush both times, but Obama managed to pick off in 2008. These are NV (6) CO (9) IN (11) OH (18) VA (13) NC (15) and FL (29) and the one loose vote in Nebraska, which allocates it's electors by district. The Republican would need to get almost all of those to win. That's a total of 102 votes. Obama can win by merely picking off FL, or by CO and NC, or OH and NV. The only one that is an easy Romney Win is IN, because that was a fluke in 2008.

We can leave a state by state discussion for later, but then we have three states that are outside the parameters I just set down. - PA (20), which has that huge area between Philly and Pittsburgh that sent Santorum to the Senate twice.

MO- (10) which McCain only won by 5000 votes, and has a history of not being terribly fond of guys in Magic Underwear.

AZ- (11) Which was dicy for Bush in 2008, McCain carried it because it was his home state, but the actions of Janet Brewer has really energized Hispanics into registering and being active.

Let's assume worst case for Romney. He loses all the swing states except Indiana, and Obama pulls off surprises in MO and AZ. That's 359 to 179. A route.

Let's conversely look at worst case Senario for Obama. He loses all the swing states except New Mexico. That's a 311-227 route.

The thing is, Santorum gets us closer to the bigger prizes- PA, OH, MO, VA, NC - than Romney does. Romney maybe gets us AZ and NV and CO. Maybe FL if he picks Rubio.

 

[Avorysuds]

I support him because, on the economy, he's the best of the bunch.... including Obama. Not hard.

And because Mitt adds dramatically to the deficit, don't forget that part. =D

For the record Santorum can’t win in the GE, it’s just not possible being he is a religious whack job while at the same time being a progressive liberal when it comes to spending.

 

[AquaAthena]

If the GOP base was energized like 2010, I would agree that VA and NC were easy pick offs for the GOP. But as is apparent, Romney isn't energizing the base at all.

Look at our website, do you see anyone doing back flips over Romney?

The only folks really enthused about Romney are the ones who are opposed to social conservatives.

IOW, even Romney supporters only support what he's not, not what he is.

That doesn't translate into victory.

Santorum at least has a come from behind victory to energize the base.

The scrappy underdog that overcame the GOP Establishment and a 10 to 1 spending deficit to topple the anointed "inevitable" nominee.

It take 270 Electoral Votes to win the Presidency.

Santorum can take Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, his home state of Pennsylvania and Iowa (all 2012 swing states) plus all the traditionally Red states. That's 264 right there.

If he wins FL, CO, WI, or MI...it's over, he wins...or a combination of any two of NM, NV and NH.


Conversely, Romney loses Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri and Iowa and holds on to the traditional Red States...Obama has 260.

If he loses FL, OH, MI, WI, or a combination of any two CO, NV, NM, NH he loses and Obama wins.

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

Well Romney picked up 20 delegates today in Puerto Rico:


Before Puerto Rico's vote was in, Romney had 501 delegates in his camp and Santorum had 253, according to The Associated Press' tally. Gingrich trailed with 136 delegates and Paul had 50.

At that rate, Romney is on pace to capture the nomination in June unless Santorum or Gingrich is able to win decisively in the coming contests.

"I know a lot of people will talk about delegates and strategies and math and that's all very interesting to the insiders. But I think the American people want to see someone who has the leadership, skill and experience to beat the president," Romney told "Fox News Sunday."

"I can't tell you exactly how the process is going to work. But I bet I'm going to become the nominee," Romney said.


Read more: Romney Wins In Puerto Rico While Focused On Illinois | Fox News

 

[Katzndogz]

Whether Santorum can win the GE depends not on how much Santorum is liked, but on how much obama is despised.

Romney will get the nomination and all those Santorum voters will vote for him. Compared to obama Romney is fantastic.

 

[Remodeling Maidiac]

We are in uncharted territory so to speak.

Many bad first time occurences under Obama plus terrible UE numbers and wars he didnt end as promise. Hell im just going to stop there.

Point being we elected a no experienced widely unknown on his first run. Anything is possible and i wont be making any bets.

 

[LoneLaugher]

I support him because, on the economy, he's the best of the bunch.... including Obama. Not hard.

You have said that. Can you prove it?

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

I'm going to predict that it doesn't matter who the Republican nominee is, Obama is going to win Ohio. Kasich handed the state to Obama on a silver platter with SB5. The only way Ohio's in play is if the nominee picks Rob Portman for VP, in my opinion.

 

[CausingPAIN]

And we can get to a winner faster, so that he will be the loser to Obama anyhow!... hahahahaha! Keep up with your sick attacks on women right’s to be equal to a man and a voter assholes.. They will show you to the masturbation only section for the next four years of the loser's life style this time around. As I get pussy! Assholes... As girls are great!

 

[C_Clayton_Jones]

The only folks really enthused about Romney are the ones who are opposed to social conservatives.

Which are democrats.

 

[Big Black Dog]

Out of all the GOP candidates, I like Newt the best and I plan to vote for him in the Illinois primaries next Tuesday. I do know that Newt will never get the GOP nod to run against Obama but out of the group to pick from, I think he's the most Presidential. Unfortunately, he has too much baggage and as a result, voting for him is like whipping a dead horse. That leaves Santorum, Romney and Paul as choices. Paul is out because although he has several real good ideas, he is as crazy as a shit house rat. Santorum is a fairly nice young man but I don't think he has enough gunpowder in his pants to be a good President. I don't believe he would be a strong President. That leaves Romney. I don't like Romney very much because to me he reminds me too much of a gangster. I don't trust him and I think he is running for President simply because he's a rich SOB that doesn't have anything better to do with his time than to play in the Oval Office for either 4 or 8 years. So, all things considered, I don't believe the GOP has a good group of folks to pick from. It's a shame too because there are many more really good choices for the GOP candidate that are not running for President than there are good ones to pick from. I'm not excited about any of the candidates. But I must say, if Romney gets the nomination, in November I will vote for him because anybody would be better than the ass clown we currently have in the White House. Voting for the best "worst candidate" for President is a poor way to select a President and therefore I wish there was a vote that you could cast in the election that simply stated "NONE OF THE ABOVE". That's who I would vote for.

 

[elvis]

What are the chances of Santorum winning the states listed above? Anyone want to venture a guess?

 

[Vel]

The real problem that I see with the lack of enthusiasm on the right is that we've allowed the left and their cohorts in the MSM to define our candidates for us. They take their Alinksy tactics and begin denigrating, smearing and belittling those that express support for anyone other than Obama. It's as if we're all back in high school dealing with the tactics of the popular cliques towards the normal kids, but instead of denigrating your shoes or your haircut, they're trying to make you feel that only the "stupid" people, or the "losers" could support that guy. Our candidates don't have to be perfect, they just have to be better than Obama. I think any of the four we have would be a better choice than giving Obama another term. I personally think Romney has the skills to be able to stop the economic disasters that are heading our way. He has plenty of his own money so he doesn't need to make under the table deals to feather his own nest.
Take note of Rules for Radicals.


Rules for Power Tactics:

1. Power is not only what you have but what the enemy thinks you have.
2. Never go outside the experience of your people.
3. Whenever possible, go outside of the experience of the enemy.
4. Make the enemy live up to their own book of rules.
5. Ridicule is man's most potent weapon.
6. A good tactic is one that your people enjoy.
7. A tactic that drags on too long becomes a drag.
8. Keep the pressure on with different tactics and actions, and utilize all events of the period for your purpose.
9. The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself.
10. The major premise for tactics is the development of operations that will maintain a constant pressure upon the opposition.
11. If you push a negative hard and deep enough, it will break through into its counterside.
12. The price of a successful attack is a constructive alternative.
13. Pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it.


The Union News.: Summary of Saul Alinsky's "Rules For Radicals"

 

[candycorn]

If the GOP base was energized like 2010, I would agree that VA and NC were easy pick offs for the GOP. But as is apparent, Romney isn't energizing the base at all.

Look at our website, do you see anyone doing back flips over Romney?

The only folks really enthused about Romney are the ones who are opposed to social conservatives.

IOW, even Romney supporters only support what he's not, not what he is.

That doesn't translate into victory.

Santorum at least has a come from behind victory to energize the base.

The scrappy underdog that overcame the GOP Establishment and a 10 to 1 spending deficit to topple the anointed "inevitable" nominee.

It take 270 Electoral Votes to win the Presidency.

Santorum can take Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, his home state of Pennsylvania and Iowa (all 2012 swing states) plus all the traditionally Red states. That's 264 right there.

If he wins FL, CO, WI, or MI...it's over, he wins...or a combination of any two of NM, NV and NH.


Conversely, Romney loses Pennsylvania, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri and Iowa and holds on to the traditional Red States...Obama has 260.

If he loses FL, OH, MI, WI, or a combination of any two CO, NV, NM, NH he loses and Obama wins.

2012 Presidential Election Interactive Map and History of the Electoral College

Santorum lost PA by something like 10 points in his last election. Are you serious?

 

[JoeB131]

Santorum lost PA by something like 10 points in his last election. Are you serious?

In a bad year for Republicans, against the son of a popular former governor who ran as a conservative, Pro-Life Democrat.

Or did you just want to leave those details out because they don't fit into your meme?

 

[candycorn]

What are the chances of Santorum winning the states listed above? Anyone want to venture a guess?

Incredibly unlikely. Whoever the GOP nominates is a Dead Man Walking politically.
The only path to the White House any of them have relies on the President making some serious mis-calculations.

To win all 50 states against Santorum, all Obama has to do is this:

First debate: After the first question is asked, Obama should say this;

"Never mind that shit. Senator Santorum, let me ask you this. How old is the earth?"
He should then turn around, have a seat and read the paper as Santorum tries to explain his whacko views.

Boom. Election over.

 

[JoeB131]

What are the chances of Santorum winning the states listed above? Anyone want to venture a guess?

Incredibly unlikely. Whoever the GOP nominates is a Dead Man Walking politically.
The only path to the White House any of them have relies on the President making some serious mis-calculations.

To win all 50 states against Santorum, all Obama has to do is this:

First debate: After the first question is asked, Obama should say this;

"Never mind that shit. Senator Santorum, let me ask you this. How old is the earth?"
He should then turn around, have a seat and read the paper as Santorum tries to explain his whacko views.

Boom. Election over.

You work on the assumption that this is really a winner issue for you guys.

Fact is, if these moral issues- Evolution, Abortion, Gay Rights, were really winners for you jokers on the left, you wouldn't go running to the courts to get your way on them. Democrats don't like talking about these issues on a national level.

Only about 12% of the country believes human beings got here with no help from a higher power. 38% believe that God guided the evoutionary process and 50% believe it happened pretty much the way it says in the bible. Now, why I am absolutely horrified that there are a lot of Americans who think that the dinosaurs are extinct because Noah didn't have room for them on the Ark, that's really just the way it is.

I have my fun ripping on religious stupidity, but I'd never advise a candidate to make that his campaign platform.

(Sorry, I've been ripping on the right for their stupidity lately. I think I need to be "fair and balanced" and rip on the left when they say stupid things.)

 

[Missourian]

Santorum would definitely take PA, a toss-up state this year. He's up on Obama in PA already. That's a huge take away. it offsets a loss of Ohio or Florida.

Santorum will also absolutely take Missouri and Iowa.

Ohio is going to be tough, but Santorum has a pro-labor record, and that's a huge advantage in Ohio, Wisconsin and Michigan.

Virginia and North Carolina are going to be tough for the GOP this year...but Santorum has the advantage.

Santorum can attack obamacare on every front. Romney cannot.

It's that simple.

http://www.270towin.com/

 

[Vel]

What are the chances of Santorum winning the states listed above? Anyone want to venture a guess?

Incredibly unlikely. Whoever the GOP nominates is a Dead Man Walking politically.
The only path to the White House any of them have relies on the President making some serious mis-calculations.

To win all 50 states against Santorum, all Obama has to do is this:

First debate: After the first question is asked, Obama should say this;

"[I]Never mind that shit. Senator Santorum, let me ask you this. How old is the earth?[/I]"
He should then turn around, have a seat and read the paper as Santorum tries to explain his whacko views.

Boom. Election over.

And Santorum should answer.. " You tell me. You claim to be a bible believing Christian don't you?"

Alinsky rule #5. Ridicule is man's most potent weapon.