Election Math Game - CNN Style

[Interpol]

As of this moment, the national polls have them tied, but the 6-8 states that will decide this are all leaning towards President Obama.

The Independent vote swings back and forth, so trying to use one snapshot to determine where those people are is just wrong on all kinds of levels.

You can't win the general just by saying how awful the President is. You have to seal the deal with what your own plans are, but Romney's vision is still murky.

He'll flip Indiana and North Carolina.

But Romney has to flip VA, OH, FL and IO to win. Can he do it? Of course he can. And as long as Republicans in Washington are determined to hold off on any legislation that would get people back to work, they hope tanking the economy again will work in their favor this time.

It's a rather cynical ploy, but I would never accuse Americans of being too quick, so they may just buy it.

Right now, I'd have to guess that Obama wins with 300 electoral votes and 51% to Romney's 48.5%.

We're looking at 2004 results all over again.

 

[rightwinger]

If you want to fantasize about a Romney presidency....go for it

That is as close as you will get

Really?

A thousand year Reich, huh?

Four more years

 

[Uncensored2008]

Well, when I want thorough and respected electoral analysis I look to Ghook!

No one said it's locked up. But if the election were held today, Obama would win almost every swing state and the election. There's no current scenario where Romney gets a "comfortable" win based on recent polls.

Because in the key states such as Florida Romney leads. That Obama has 90% support in California doesn't alter much, since that is a locked state for the democrats. But in the battleground states the class warfare hasn't been helping Obama.

I disagree as well, if the election were held today, Obama would lose. But he has 100 days to turn that around and this is very close at the moment.

 

[Uncensored2008]

Yeah, thats what I thought. You're all talk.

At this moment, it's a close race. I don't think it should be, Obama is an utter failure. But the fact is that this is a dead heat. I can't say with any certainty who will win it, but neither can you. The crowing that Dear Leader is a lock is foolish.

 

[Uncensored2008]

Four more years

I wasn't under the impression Obama would stop after 4 more.

Of course, I'm not convinced there will even be a USA if Obama wins 4 more years.

 

[rightwinger]

Four more years

I wasn't under the impression Obama would stop after 4 more.

Of course, I'm not convinced there will even be a USA if Obama wins 4 more years.

While I'm sure America would continue to elect Obama, he is constitutionally limited to two terms

But if it makes you feel any better......Hillary will win in 2016 and 2020

 

[Zander]

Yeah, thats what I thought. You're all talk.

At this moment, it's a close race. I don't think it should be, Obama is an utter failure. But the fact is that this is a dead heat. I can't say with any certainty who will win it, but neither can you. The crowing that Dear Leader is a lock is foolish.

Exactly. It's a sign of desperation. They believe that if they simply repeat something over and over, like a mantra, that it will come to pass. It's their very own version of "the secret". Go on, give it a try,....keep saying this until you believe it............

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[rightwinger]

Obama is a lock

 

[Mr.Nick]

CNN.com - Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News

If you believe the map then Obama has 247 locked up and Romney 206 and there are 85 up for grabs!

I would say WI and MI are up for grabs, but CNN wants to already put them in the Obama win column.

Nevertheless, here is how I think Romney wins.

(1) CO & NV - Obama takes these liberal majority states, esp because he is selling out to the illegal immigrant support groups. O:262 - R:206
(2) FL - After Rubio is selected, it all but assures FL. O:262 - R:235.
(3) NH - He is favorite there. Small win. O: 262 - R:239
(4) VA - It's an insult to our intelligence they put this as a toss-up this is in the Romney bag. O:262 - R:252
(5) OH - The state the wins and losses elections. Always the most important. The HORRENDOUS economy and Obama's war on small business will sink Obama in industrial OH. O: 262 - R:270
(6) IW - Obama pulls off IW. O:268 - R:270
(7) NM: Not the end - Obama loses the leaning Obama state of NM (Wait until Susan Martinez starts to REALLY campaign for Romney, they love her and she loves Romney - Rubio on the ticket will also be a HUGE plus). O: 263 - R:275
(8) WI: Obama loses the leaning Obama state of WI. Gov Walker won TWO decisive STATE wide elections, even with the COUNTRYWIDE mobilization, propaganda and MONEY, yet the most conservative senator in the country WON. That victory will lead to a Romney upset! O:253 - R:285

(9) Romney holds onto his right leaning states of AZ (BS CNN pulls that as Romney leaning its in the bag for Romney), MO, IN and NC (NC is the biggest threat, but not really)!


Results: Romney victory with 285!!!

All I have as locks for Obama are Illinois (maybe) and California (sure bet)...

You have to remember 50% of those who were willing to give him a chance and bought into the "hope & change" bullshit now hate him...

Obama didn't win by much last time, this time he's facing a severe impact.... People do want "hope & change" Obama is just not the tyrant that will give the people what they want.

 

[Uncensored2008]

Obama is a lock

Obama is a sock?

Could be....

 

[Uncensored2008]

All I have as locks for Obama are Illinois (maybe) and California (sure bet)...

You have to remember 50% of those who were willing to give him a chance and bought into the "hope & change" bullshit now hate him...

Obama didn't win by much last time, this time he's facing a severe impact.... People do want "hope & change" Obama is just not the tyrant that will give the people what they want.

Seriously?

He also has New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Oregon, Washington, etc. The "deep blue" states would vote for Pol Pot if he were the DNC nominee. (Actually, I think many on the left would love old Pol, he is what they yearn for.)

 

[rightwinger]

CNN.com - Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News

If you believe the map then Obama has 247 locked up and Romney 206 and there are 85 up for grabs!

I would say WI and MI are up for grabs, but CNN wants to already put them in the Obama win column.

Nevertheless, here is how I think Romney wins.

(1) CO & NV - Obama takes these liberal majority states, esp because he is selling out to the illegal immigrant support groups. O:262 - R:206
(2) FL - After Rubio is selected, it all but assures FL. O:262 - R:235.
(3) NH - He is favorite there. Small win. O: 262 - R:239
(4) VA - It's an insult to our intelligence they put this as a toss-up this is in the Romney bag. O:262 - R:252
(5) OH - The state the wins and losses elections. Always the most important. The HORRENDOUS economy and Obama's war on small business will sink Obama in industrial OH. O: 262 - R:270
(6) IW - Obama pulls off IW. O:268 - R:270
(7) NM: Not the end - Obama loses the leaning Obama state of NM (Wait until Susan Martinez starts to REALLY campaign for Romney, they love her and she loves Romney - Rubio on the ticket will also be a HUGE plus). O: 263 - R:275
(8) WI: Obama loses the leaning Obama state of WI. Gov Walker won TWO decisive STATE wide elections, even with the COUNTRYWIDE mobilization, propaganda and MONEY, yet the most conservative senator in the country WON. That victory will lead to a Romney upset! O:253 - R:285

(9) Romney holds onto his right leaning states of AZ (BS CNN pulls that as Romney leaning its in the bag for Romney), MO, IN and NC (NC is the biggest threat, but not really)!


Results: Romney victory with 285!!!

All I have as locks for Obama are Illinois (maybe) and California (sure bet)...

You have to remember 50% of those who were willing to give him a chance and bought into the "hope & change" bullshit now hate him...

Obama didn't win by much last time, this time he's facing a severe impact.... People do want "hope & change" Obama is just not the tyrant that will give the people what they want.

You had Ron Paul as a lock

 

[rightwinger]

Obama is a lock

Obama is a sock?

Could be....

Romney is a cock?

Could be.....

 

[Uncensored2008]

You had Ron Paul as a lock

Look, you're just a hack. But no one has a lock at this moment. Why Obama has any support is a mystery to me, but the race is very close.

 

[Uncensored2008]

Romney is a cock?

Could be.....

Obama sucks cock?

Oh, that's right, he came out...

 

[8537]

Well, when I want thorough and respected electoral analysis I look to Ghook!

No one said it's locked up. But if the election were held today, Obama would win almost every swing state and the election. There's no current scenario where Romney gets a "comfortable" win based on recent polls.

Because in the key states such as Florida Romney leads.

No, in most key states Obama leads. You're just making shit up as you go...

Oh, and Obama is +5 in Florida.

 

[Provocateur]

I think that the electoral votes are squarely in Obama's favor. I think he will win because of it, regardless the popular vote.
The only possibility Romney has of winning swing states is picking Condi Rice as VP choice.

 

[rightwinger]

I think that the electoral votes are squarely in Obama's favor. I think he will win because of it, regardless the popular vote.
The only possibility Romney has of winning swing states is picking Condi Rice as VP choice.

Condo would be a good choice but she is pro-choice and pro gay marriage

Death sentence to conservatives

 

[rightwinger]

You had Ron Paul as a lock

Look, you're just a hack. But no one has a lock at this moment. Why Obama has any support is a mystery to me, but the race is very close.

The Electoral college is stacked against Romney. In non swing states Obama has a 40 point lead with 139 in swing states. Romney will have to be near perfect in swing states.....unlikely to happen

Obama currently leads in ten of twelve swing states. Barring a major game changer in the next four months...Obama wins easily with 325 votes

 

[Conservative]

Well, when I want thorough and respected electoral analysis I look to Ghook!

No one said it's locked up. But if the election were held today, Obama would win almost every swing state and the election. There's no current scenario where Romney gets a "comfortable" win based on recent polls.

Because in the key states such as Florida Romney leads.

No, in most key states Obama leads. You're just making shit up as you go...

Oh, and Obama is +5 in Florida.

Sure, pick the 1 poll that tells you what you want to hear...
RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - Florida: Romney vs. Obama

RCP average in FL

Obama 46
Romney 45.4

+.6 Obama