Election Math Game - CNN Style

[GHook93]

http://www.cnn.com/election/2012/ecalculator#?battleground

If you believe the map then Obama has 247 locked up and Romney 206 and there are 85 up for grabs!

I would say WI and MI are up for grabs, but CNN wants to already put them in the Obama win column.

Nevertheless, here is how I think Romney wins.

(1) CO & NV - Obama takes these liberal majority states, esp because he is selling out to the illegal immigrant support groups. O:262 - R:206
(2) FL - After Rubio is selected, it all but assures FL. O:262 - R:235.
(3) NH - He is favorite there. Small win. O: 262 - R:239
(4) VA - It's an insult to our intelligence they put this as a toss-up this is in the Romney bag. O:262 - R:252
(5) OH - The state the wins and losses elections. Always the most important. The HORRENDOUS economy and Obama's war on small business will sink Obama in industrial OH. O: 262 - R:270
(6) IW - Obama pulls off IW. O:268 - R:270
(7) NM: Not the end - Obama loses the leaning Obama state of NM (Wait until Susan Martinez starts to REALLY campaign for Romney, they love her and she loves Romney - Rubio on the ticket will also be a HUGE plus). O: 263 - R:275
(8) WI: Obama loses the leaning Obama state of WI. Gov Walker won TWO decisive STATE wide elections, even with the COUNTRYWIDE mobilization, propaganda and MONEY, yet the most conservative senator in the country WON. That victory will lead to a Romney upset! O:253 - R:285

(9) Romney holds onto his right leaning states of AZ (BS CNN pulls that as Romney leaning its in the bag for Romney), MO, IN and NC (NC is the biggest threat, but not really)!


Results: Romney victory with 285!!!

 

[Jackson]

Obama has a decline in the youth vote and the question is will the minorites show up at the polls as they did in 2008. Independents are siding with the Republicans and could make the difference.

The debates will make an important change in the minds of people.

 

[GHook93]

Obama has a decline in the youth vote and the question is will the minorites show up at the polls as they did in 2008. Independents are siding with the Republicans and could make the difference.

The debates will make an important change in the minds of people.

Bases of Obama's that are shrinking:
(1) Youth Vote: They won't vote in the record numbers they did in 2008. The it's cool to be with Obama has worn off.
(2) Black Vote: He got 97% of a HIGH turn out black vote. I think it will be around 90% and a low turn out.
(3) Unions: The Unions support him, but their RAPIDLY shrinking membership base has eroded their numbers.

Where is this going to hurt him. In NC (Black vote going for a steal), OH, VA & WI (Unions on decline not good for the Big O)!

 

[swizzlee]

Romney will win but..................

Rubio isn't going to be his VP pick.

 

[GHook93]

Romney will win but..................

Rubio isn't going to be his VP pick.

Few Reasons Rubio is going to be VP:
(1) He will make and excellent selection and excellent President one day.
(2) He is the 2nd best to Condi, but I don't think Mitt will select her.
(3) He gives a bump to FL and FL is a must win.
(4) He is latino

 

[swizzlee]

Bet a case of cyber-beer..............

That your reasons are exactly why Romney won't pick him


(1) He will make and excellent selection and excellent President one day.

You could say that about any of them on Mitt's list. There are many who said the same thing about the O who had just about the same experience as Rubio.

(2) He is the 2nd best to Condi, but I don't think Mitt will select her.

I agree Mitt won't select her either.

(3) He gives a bump to FL and FL is a must win.

So is OH [think Portman]. And Mitt is doing far better in the polls in FL [tied] than he is in OH - so far!

(4) He is latino

So? The O has been losing ground among many groups, including Hispanics. Latinos are no more important in this race than any other group.

It's my belief that Mitt is not at all interested in the "political" reasons for the selection of one over the other. He's looking for someone he can relate to on a personal basis [that would be true for all presidential candidates] and also someone who is competent and capable of running this country He is basically a businessman, not a politician. He wants a right-hand man, not a pretty face.

 

[rightwinger]

CNN.com - Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News

If you believe the map then Obama has 247 locked up and Romney 206 and there are 85 up for grabs!

I would say WI and MI are up for grabs, but CNN wants to already put them in the Obama win column.

Nevertheless, here is how I think Romney wins.

(1) CO & NV - Obama takes these liberal majority states, esp because he is selling out to the illegal immigrant support groups. O:262 - R:206
(2) FL - After Rubio is selected, it all but assures FL. O:262 - R:235.
(3) NH - He is favorite there. Small win. O: 262 - R:239
(4) VA - It's an insult to our intelligence they put this as a toss-up this is in the Romney bag. O:262 - R:252
(5) OH - The state the wins and losses elections. Always the most important. The HORRENDOUS economy and Obama's war on small business will sink Obama in industrial OH. O: 262 - R:270
(6) IW - Obama pulls off IW. O:268 - R:270
(7) NM: Not the end - Obama loses the leaning Obama state of NM (Wait until Susan Martinez starts to REALLY campaign for Romney, they love her and she loves Romney - Rubio on the ticket will also be a HUGE plus). O: 263 - R:275
(8) WI: Obama loses the leaning Obama state of WI. Gov Walker won TWO decisive STATE wide elections, even with the COUNTRYWIDE mobilization, propaganda and MONEY, yet the most conservative senator in the country WON. That victory will lead to a Romney upset! O:253 - R:285

(9) Romney holds onto his right leaning states of AZ (BS CNN pulls that as Romney leaning its in the bag for Romney), MO, IN and NC (NC is the biggest threat, but not really)!


Results: Romney victory with 285!!!

It basically comes down to OH and FL. Romney has to win both to have any hope of winning. If Obama wins either, it will be a short night for Romney

As it is, Obama has a substantial lead in non swing states. He also leads in ten of twelve swing states. Romney needs a significant game changer and it does not look likely

Obama wins with 325 electoral votes

 

[8537]

I hope Romney spends a lot of time and effort campaigning in Michigan.

 

[signelect]

As I read the arguments, everyone makes sense which has to mean that we really don't have any idea yet. I think the Obama base is erroding but Mitt has to quit saying stupid things and I am not sure he can.

 

[candycorn]

CNN.com - Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News

If you believe the map then Obama has 247 locked up and Romney 206 and there are 85 up for grabs!

I would say WI and MI are up for grabs, but CNN wants to already put them in the Obama win column.

Nevertheless, here is how I think Romney wins.

(1) CO & NV - Obama takes these liberal majority states, esp because he is selling out to the illegal immigrant support groups. O:262 - R:206
(2) FL - After Rubio is selected, it all but assures FL. O:262 - R:235.
(3) NH - He is favorite there. Small win. O: 262 - R:239
(4) VA - It's an insult to our intelligence they put this as a toss-up this is in the Romney bag. O:262 - R:252
(5) OH - The state the wins and losses elections. Always the most important. The HORRENDOUS economy and Obama's war on small business will sink Obama in industrial OH. O: 262 - R:270
(6) IW - Obama pulls off IW. O:268 - R:270
(7) NM: Not the end - Obama loses the leaning Obama state of NM (Wait until Susan Martinez starts to REALLY campaign for Romney, they love her and she loves Romney - Rubio on the ticket will also be a HUGE plus). O: 263 - R:275
(8) WI: Obama loses the leaning Obama state of WI. Gov Walker won TWO decisive STATE wide elections, even with the COUNTRYWIDE mobilization, propaganda and MONEY, yet the most conservative senator in the country WON. That victory will lead to a Romney upset! O:253 - R:285

(9) Romney holds onto his right leaning states of AZ (BS CNN pulls that as Romney leaning its in the bag for Romney), MO, IN and NC (NC is the biggest threat, but not really)!


Results: Romney victory with 285!!!

Obama will win Wisconsin easily. It's dominated by suburban Chicago where Obama is unbelieveably popular.

Michigan will be almost as easy since Governor Romney wanted to kill GM. Even he can't flip flop out of that one.

Obama is also ahead in Ohio by 2% according to 7/18 Rasmussen polling.

Survey USA had Obama ahead by 5% on 7/19.

Electoral math does not favor Governor Romney in any combination.

 

[candycorn]

As I read the arguments, everyone makes sense which has to mean that we really don't have any idea yet. I think the Obama base is erroding but Mitt has to quit saying stupid things and I am not sure he can.

What "base" do you think is eroding?

 

[candycorn]

I hope Romney spends a lot of time and effort campaigning in Michigan.

Yeah me too.

 

[rightwinger]

. CNN.com - Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News

If you believe the map then Obama has 247 locked up and Romney 206 and there are 85 up for grabs!

Obama needs only 23 of those 85 votes. Mitt needs a near sweep of swing states 64 of 85

Not very good math for Mitt

 

[auditor0007]

Romney will win but..................

Rubio isn't going to be his VP pick.

I don't think Rubio is going to be the pick either, and with that Romney can kiss his chances goodbye. Rubio is the only VP pick that adds votes for Romney. Rubio not only gives Romney a much better chance of winning Florida, but it also energizes the wingnuts which Romney needs. If just a small percentage of the wingnuts in the swing states stay home, Obama wins easily in the electoral college.

 

[candycorn]

Obama has a decline in the youth vote and the question is will the minorites show up at the polls as they did in 2008. Independents are siding with the Republicans and could make the difference.

The debates will make an important change in the minds of people.

Nonsense.

The debates are a waste of time. We no longer have debates; we have co-infomercials. When the League of Women Voters was thrown overboard by the GOP in the early 1990's debates became meaningless. Basically if you were to watcha Youtube video of Deuling Banjos, you'd get just as much new information in the same basic format.

At that level and in this format, candidates debate themselves.

We should demand better in the form of a constitutional requirement. There are a number of ideas out there but I foresee a minimum of 6 debates; 3 topics. In the odd numbered debates you have a panel asking questions on a particular topic. Foreign policy, domestic issues, personal values are my ideas--you can change them. Anyway, you have any old format you want. In the even numbered debates, 2, 4, and 6, you have no moderator but candidates asking questions to one another; "Governor Romney, you said in the first debate, you'd keep Iran from getting a nuke. Tell us how you'd go about it." Then The governor has 5 minutes to answer the question. Next question is to the President; "President Obama, you supporrted the uprising in Libya but not Syria. Tell us why you didn't seek to help out the Syrians." Then he has 5 minutes to answer the question.

 

[candycorn]

Romney will win but..................

Rubio isn't going to be his VP pick.

I don't think Rubio is going to be the pick either, and with that Romney can kiss his chances goodbye. Rubio is the only VP pick that adds votes for Romney. Rubio not only gives Romney a much better chance of winning Florida, but it also energizes the wingnuts which Romney needs. If just a small percentage of the wingnuts in the swing states stay home, Obama wins easily in the electoral college.

This thing was over when Huntsman pulled out.

 

[candycorn]

. CNN.com - Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News

If you believe the map then Obama has 247 locked up and Romney 206 and there are 85 up for grabs!

Obama needs only 23 of those 85 votes. Mitt needs a near sweep of swing states 64 of 85

Not very good math for Mitt

I think the election will be over in time that the networks will resume regular programming in California. Get ready for a re-run of Castle on ABC at 9:00 PST.

 

[rightwinger]

. CNN.com - Breaking News, U.S., World, Weather, Entertainment & Video News

If you believe the map then Obama has 247 locked up and Romney 206 and there are 85 up for grabs!

Obama needs only 23 of those 85 votes. Mitt needs a near sweep of swing states 64 of 85

Not very good math for Mitt

I think the election will be over in time that the networks will resume regular programming in California. Get ready for a re-run of Castle on ABC at 9:00 PST.

Agree...

No matter how bad it looks for Romney, the networks will not call the election until polls have closed out west. Doesn't matter since those western states are blue anyway

But for all intents and purposes, it will be over if Obama takes Ohio or Florida

 

[candycorn]

Obama needs only 23 of those 85 votes. Mitt needs a near sweep of swing states 64 of 85

Not very good math for Mitt

I think the election will be over in time that the networks will resume regular programming in California. Get ready for a re-run of Castle on ABC at 9:00 PST.

Agree...

No matter how bad it looks for Romney, the networks will not call the election until polls have closed out west. Doesn't matter since those western states are blue anyway

But for all intents and purposes, it will be over if Obama takes Ohio or Florida

Yeah, I know...I was just expressing a little hyperbole.

 

[Uncensored2008]

Few Reasons Rubio is going to be VP:
(1) He will make and excellent selection and excellent President one day.
(2) He is the 2nd best to Condi, but I don't think Mitt will select her.
(3) He gives a bump to FL and FL is a must win.
(4) He is latino

Condi is pro-abortion, Romney doesn't dare pick her.

I agree that it will be Rubio.