Election in Israel Edges Middle-East toward...

[Tech_Esq]

... Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said he would not run for re-election in September. That set up the large potential that Israel will have more hawkish leaders. One potential successor is Transportation Minister Shaul Mofaz, who said recently that an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities is inevitable.

If there is a President Obama, will this make Israel feel that it is more "on it's own" militarily and given a more hawkish Israeli government does this mean we're looking at an Israeli strike on Iran within a year if Obama is elected?

I'm not baiting this for internal political purposes, but looking at it from a purely international academic prospective. If Israel feels that the US will not fight its battles or take care of its security needs, will that increase the odds they will act unilaterally?

The follow up is: If they do, is that in our interest?

 

[Shogun]

I would be shocked if israel bombed iran on it's own without an American lifeline.


However, we all know that Obama policy will not stray far in blank check support for israel. Either way, a more hawkish PM will fill Olmerts spot. I'd bet shekels.

 

[Baruch Menachem]

The Israeli consensus on this kind of thing is built differently than here, so it will take a while to get going on it.

Part of the problem with dealing with Israel is that they have very little trust for anybody. Zionism started with the Dreyfus case, and those Jews who survived the last world war had very good reason to be suspicious. So the national historical narrative is that "we can't trust anyone, we have to go alone, because when push comes to shove, in the past, even out best friends have deserted us." That is the belief that flows through all the parties there. Even the most pacifistic.

And Iran is run by nut job who blame Israel for Iran's internal problems. If he had the opportunity and the means, he would do Israel sever damage in a heartbeat.

The next question, is does he have the means. Well, the Iranians don't approve of Jewish science. I kind of doubt that they could build a functional device, given their doctrinal silliness. But, if I lived under the narrative of the state of Israel, and I saw the Iranians at work on something scary, I would respond in vigorous manner.

And if the US doesn't approve. Well, tough. the PM can send the president a card and some flowers and a unctuous apology after it is over, but the PM will see to it that Israel will survive.