Egypt: The new Iran?

[zzzz]

It is just the beginning but am I the only one who sees a simularity between Iran (1979) and Egypt (2011)? Or is it a replay of Pakistan just a few years ago? Mohammed ElBaradei is returning to the country to lead the opposition and the Moslem Brotherhood is starting to back the demostrations. What will emerge from the dust will have a lasting effect on the middle east. Lebanon is just a pimple on the region, Egypt is the main power that has been keeping peace for decades. If a hostile (to Israel) government comes to power, war might be back on the agenda.

 

[High_Gravity]

Its a replay of Pakistan.

 

[editec]

There are similarities of course.

Mubarok, much like the Shah, has cleaved to the USA as an ally, while at the same time repressed the Citizens ability to have input into their society.

I don't think Mubarok's respression of democratic leanings is as bad as the Shah's obviously was, but as with Iran, the people are sick of the SHAMOCRACY.

 

[High_Gravity]

From what I been reading the Muslim Brotherhood isn't really taking part in the demonstrations because they feel that it won't amount to anything, I don't think anything is really going to change in Egypt, there will be some riots and explosions like there was in Iran last year but the regime will retain control.

 

[GHook93]

It is just the beginning but am I the only one who sees a simularity between Iran (1979) and Egypt (2011)? Or is it a replay of Pakistan just a few years ago? Mohammed ElBaradei is returning to the country to lead the opposition and the Moslem Brotherhood is starting to back the demostrations. What will emerge from the dust will have a lasting effect on the middle east. Lebanon is just a pimple on the region, Egypt is the main power that has been keeping peace for decades. If a hostile (to Israel) government comes to power, war might be back on the agenda.

Well there are similar us Presidents Carter for Iran and Obama for Egypt that could allow it to happen. However, I don't think it will play down that way. I think it will be like Alamdouchebag remaining in charge after the taking down the green opposition!

 

[zzzz]

But who thought the Shah would fall in the early days of the unrest either? You have to look at the whole picture and not just headlines. Food prices are siaring worldwide and shortages are starting to crop up. Unemployment in Egypt is rampant and when people are starving they lash out. Dissatisfaction with the way democracy has played out may cause a backlash. Without Mubarak ther is a power vacuum of one of the most powerful countries in the middle east. The army still backs him but this may change and if the army stops backing him... Mubarak is grooming his son to take over. again shades of Iran. The Muslim Brotherhood at present is hesistant to jump in but there are indications that they may be moving against the government. Its just this feeling that we have ben through this before. Will this be Obama's Iran?

 

[High_Gravity]

But who thought the Shah would fall in the early days of the unrest either? You have to look at the whole picture and not just headlines. Food prices are siaring worldwide and shortages are starting to crop up. Unemployment in Egypt is rampant and when people are starving they lash out. Dissatisfaction with the way democracy has played out may cause a backlash. Without Mubarak ther is a power vacuum of one of the most powerful countries in the middle east. The army still backs him but this may change and if the army stops backing him... Mubarak is grooming his son to take over. again shades of Iran. The Muslim Brotherhood at present is hesistant to jump in but there are indications that they may be moving against the government. Its just this feeling that we have ben through this before. Will this be Obama's Iran?

At the very worst that could happen but I doubt it, Ayatollah Khomeini started a revolution from outside the country in Iran and inspired a religious take over of the country. I don't see an Egyptian version of Khomeini anywhere.

 

[zzzz]

But who thought the Shah would fall in the early days of the unrest either? You have to look at the whole picture and not just headlines. Food prices are siaring worldwide and shortages are starting to crop up. Unemployment in Egypt is rampant and when people are starving they lash out. Dissatisfaction with the way democracy has played out may cause a backlash. Without Mubarak ther is a power vacuum of one of the most powerful countries in the middle east. The army still backs him but this may change and if the army stops backing him... Mubarak is grooming his son to take over. again shades of Iran. The Muslim Brotherhood at present is hesistant to jump in but there are indications that they may be moving against the government. Its just this feeling that we have ben through this before. Will this be Obama's Iran?

At the very worst that could happen but I doubt it, Ayatollah Khomeini started a revolution from outside the country in Iran and inspired a religious take over of the country. I don't see an Egyptian version of Khomeini anywhere.

I don't either but I'm not on the ground in Egypt, so I don't know if there is a religous person who is under the international radar that is just waiting for the opportunity to emerge. In Iraq they have one in Muqtada al-Sadr but he has not as of yet inspired a widespread following because of the moderating influence of other religous leaders.

It just feels like Egypt is a tilled field waiting for the seed to sown. And I suspect the leaders in Iran are looking at Egypt with an envious eye and planning on putting their stamp into the unrest.

 

[High_Gravity]

But who thought the Shah would fall in the early days of the unrest either? You have to look at the whole picture and not just headlines. Food prices are siaring worldwide and shortages are starting to crop up. Unemployment in Egypt is rampant and when people are starving they lash out. Dissatisfaction with the way democracy has played out may cause a backlash. Without Mubarak ther is a power vacuum of one of the most powerful countries in the middle east. The army still backs him but this may change and if the army stops backing him... Mubarak is grooming his son to take over. again shades of Iran. The Muslim Brotherhood at present is hesistant to jump in but there are indications that they may be moving against the government. Its just this feeling that we have ben through this before. Will this be Obama's Iran?

At the very worst that could happen but I doubt it, Ayatollah Khomeini started a revolution from outside the country in Iran and inspired a religious take over of the country. I don't see an Egyptian version of Khomeini anywhere.

I don't either but I'm not on the ground in Egypt, so I don't know if there is a religous person who is under the international radar that is just waiting for the opportunity to emerge. In Iraq they have one in Muqtada al-Sadr but he has not as of yet inspired a widespread following because of the moderating influence of other religous leaders.

It just feels like Egypt is a tilled field waiting for the seed to sown. And I suspect the leaders in Iran are looking at Egypt with an envious eye and planning on putting their stamp into the unrest.

Well Iran doesn't really have much pull in Egypt because Iran is a Persian Shite country while the Egyptians are Arab majority Sunnis. Sadr is in the government in Iraq so he doesn't have to push for a revolt, he is getting what he wants. If I have learned anything it is that anything is possible in the Middle East but I wouldn't put much stake into this unrest, there is always unrest in Arab countries and very rarely does the government fall, what happened in Tunisia is the exception not the rule.

 

[Isabelle]

Please read and share it! It also talks about our foreign policy towards Egypt and how it should change.

Edited-See Post 13

 

[Ropey]

 

[zzzz]

And now it seems Yemen is undergoing an anti western uprising. This is beginning to look like a wildfire of inserection in the middle east. Could it spread to Jordan and even Saudia Arabia? The availability of the internet and news is so rampant today that these things have no borders and a regional uprising across North Africa and The middle east is not beyond the possible.

 

[Intense]

CAIRO - Last night, as the second day of popular demonstrations that have gripped huge chunks of downtown Cairo and beyond continued past dusk, a hundreds-strong crowd outside the Lawyers Syndicate suddenly swapped slogans.

After hours of chanting, "usqut, usqut ya Mubarak!" - "Fall, fall Mubarak!" - they turned their tongues toward another target: "Mubarak 'ameel American!" - "Mubarak is an American agent!"

It remains unclear where these demonstrations are heading and what their long-term implications will be. But there remains one long-term certainty: Someday, President Hosni Mubarak will either retire or die. And when this happens, he will leave behind approximately 80 million constituents, many of whom will blame the United States for backing his brutal rule even in its most unsympathetic moments.

And the blame game is already starting.



Read more: Hosni Mubarak, our man in Cairo: Egypt's protesters have grown impatient with U.S. realism

 

[High_Gravity]

And now it seems Yemen is undergoing an anti western uprising. This is beginning to look like a wildfire of inserection in the middle east. Could it spread to Jordan and even Saudia Arabia? The availability of the internet and news is so rampant today that these things have no borders and a regional uprising across North Africa and The middle east is not beyond the possible.

Yemen undergoing an anti western uprising? what are you talking about there are barely any westerners in that country, its a total shithole, the Saudis keep them in check.

 

[LibocalypseNow]

It could be. Stay tuned.

 

[Ropey]

But there remains one long-term certainty: Someday, President Hosni Mubarak will either retire or die. And when this happens, he will leave behind approximately 80 million constituents, many of whom will blame the United States for backing his brutal rule even in its most unsympathetic moments.

Indeed. We will find what the average people think soon enough.

 

[zzzz]

Sounds like Obama just realized something was going on in Egypt. I saw it coming over 2 days ago just reading news reports.

 

[syrenn]

Long story short.


Yep.

 

[waltky]

Iran hailed the protests as the `Islamic awakening' - as long as they were in Egypt...

Iran Takes Aggressive Stance on Protests
02/14/11 - Protesters in Iran are getting a strong-arm response from the government, according to multiple media reports on Monday.

Both the New York Times and Wall Street Journal are saying Iranian police have been beating the protesters and using tear gas to break up crowds that apparently appeared in several cities in the country.

The WSJ report said the crowds have numbered in the "tens of thousands", while the Times said witness accounts and reports from within the country suggest 20,000 to 30,000 protesters gathered.

Following the successful ouster in Egypt of Hosni Mubarak after 30 years as president, other countries in the Middle East are reportedly seeing increased protest activity, including Bahrain and Yemen.

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