Egypt: The new Iran?

Discussion in 'Middle East - General' started by zzzz, Jan 27, 2011.

  1. zzzz
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    zzzz Just a regular American

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    It is just the beginning but am I the only one who sees a simularity between Iran (1979) and Egypt (2011)? Or is it a replay of Pakistan just a few years ago? Mohammed ElBaradei is returning to the country to lead the opposition and the Moslem Brotherhood is starting to back the demostrations. What will emerge from the dust will have a lasting effect on the middle east. Lebanon is just a pimple on the region, Egypt is the main power that has been keeping peace for decades. If a hostile (to Israel) government comes to power, war might be back on the agenda.
     
  2. High_Gravity
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    Its a replay of Pakistan.
     
  3. editec
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    editec Mr. Forgot-it-All

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    There are similarities of course.

    Mubarok, much like the Shah, has cleaved to the USA as an ally, while at the same time repressed the Citizens ability to have input into their society.

    I don't think Mubarok's respression of democratic leanings is as bad as the Shah's obviously was, but as with Iran, the people are sick of the SHAMOCRACY.
     
  4. High_Gravity
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    From what I been reading the Muslim Brotherhood isn't really taking part in the demonstrations because they feel that it won't amount to anything, I don't think anything is really going to change in Egypt, there will be some riots and explosions like there was in Iran last year but the regime will retain control.
     
  5. GHook93
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    GHook93 Aristotle

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    Well there are similar us Presidents Carter for Iran and Obama for Egypt that could allow it to happen. However, I don't think it will play down that way. I think it will be like Alamdouchebag remaining in charge after the taking down the green opposition!
     
  6. zzzz
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    zzzz Just a regular American

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    But who thought the Shah would fall in the early days of the unrest either? You have to look at the whole picture and not just headlines. Food prices are siaring worldwide and shortages are starting to crop up. Unemployment in Egypt is rampant and when people are starving they lash out. Dissatisfaction with the way democracy has played out may cause a backlash. Without Mubarak ther is a power vacuum of one of the most powerful countries in the middle east. The army still backs him but this may change and if the army stops backing him... Mubarak is grooming his son to take over. again shades of Iran. The Muslim Brotherhood at present is hesistant to jump in but there are indications that they may be moving against the government. Its just this feeling that we have ben through this before. Will this be Obama's Iran?
     
  7. High_Gravity
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    At the very worst that could happen but I doubt it, Ayatollah Khomeini started a revolution from outside the country in Iran and inspired a religious take over of the country. I don't see an Egyptian version of Khomeini anywhere.
     
  8. zzzz
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    zzzz Just a regular American

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    I don't either but I'm not on the ground in Egypt, so I don't know if there is a religous person who is under the international radar that is just waiting for the opportunity to emerge. In Iraq they have one in Muqtada al-Sadr but he has not as of yet inspired a widespread following because of the moderating influence of other religous leaders.

    It just feels like Egypt is a tilled field waiting for the seed to sown. And I suspect the leaders in Iran are looking at Egypt with an envious eye and planning on putting their stamp into the unrest.
     
  9. High_Gravity
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    Well Iran doesn't really have much pull in Egypt because Iran is a Persian Shite country while the Egyptians are Arab majority Sunnis. Sadr is in the government in Iraq so he doesn't have to push for a revolt, he is getting what he wants. If I have learned anything it is that anything is possible in the Middle East but I wouldn't put much stake into this unrest, there is always unrest in Arab countries and very rarely does the government fall, what happened in Tunisia is the exception not the rule.
     
  10. Isabelle
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    Isabelle Rookie

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    Please read and share it! It also talks about our foreign policy towards Egypt and how it should change.

    Edited-See Post 13
     

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