Egypt: Look Before You Leap

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Over the past several weeks, developments in Egypt have proven just as those of us who urged caution had warned.

Of course, we all want to see democracy pullulate, but the lesson of Egypt is that democracy doesn't always mean democracy. In fact, any opinion of the uprising is apt to be uninformed if one hasn't studied Islamism.

1. There was the warning that, sans the 'tyrant' Mubarak, was ripe for being taken over by the Muslim Brotherhood. "The Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist group once banned by the state, is at the forefront,.." http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/25/world/middleeast/25egypt.html?_r=3

a. "the young, educated secular activists who initially propelled the nonideological revolution are no longer the driving political force..."Ibid.

b. "“There is evidence the Brotherhood struck some kind of a deal with the military early on,” Ibid.

2. In fact, several of the individuals assigned to write a new constitution were, in fact, members of the Muslim Brotherhood. " A Brotherhood member was also appointed to the committee that drafted amendments to the Constitution. NYTimes, op.cit.
a. "the Muslim Brotherhood in a square in Alexandria instructed voters that it was their “religious duty” to vote “yes” on the amendments. In the end, 77.2 percent of those who voted said yes." NYTImes, Ibid.

b. There are representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood in the group that is writing a constitution for Egypt…and their input will produce an Islamist document.Egypt’s Writing of A New Constitution Holds Little or No Room for Egyptian Chrisitans and Women | Chandler's Watch

3. Iranian ships were allowed through the Suez Canal. Egypt banks, pyramids open, some protest in Cairo - The West Australian

4. In an ominous sign of things to come in Egypt, Christians were called upon during Friday’s service held in Cairo’s Tahrir Square, to bow down and submit to Allah….the words can only mean one thing; that Christians must bow down and submit to Allah and eventually live under Sharia rule. Tahrir Square

a. "rise and the overpowering force of Islam." NYTimes, op.cit.

b. In a Friday sermon delivered by Sheikh Yusuf Al-Qaradawi, perhaps the leading current intellectual force behind the Muslim Brotherhood, the imam delivered a blistering diatribe to an estimated crowd of 1M gathered at Tahrir Square, Cairo, urging war with Israel and conquest of Jerusalem. Sheikh Al-Qaradawi, Friday Prayers In Tahrir Square - Sheikh Al-Qaradawi, Friday Prayers In Tahrir Square - "Pray-by PipeLineNews.org

c. Two important things happened during Qaradawi’s appearance in Cairo. First, his handlers refused to allow Google’s Egyptian Internet revolutionary Wael Ghonim to join the cleric on the dais. For anyone willing to notice, Qaradawi’s message in spurning Ghonim was indisputable. As far as the jihadists are concerned, Ghonim and his fellow Internet activists are the present day equivalent of Lenin’s useful idiots. Caroline B. Glick: Egypt's Useful Idiots - Israel Insider

5. Thousands of prisoners have been freed from Egyptian prisons, many of them...you guessed it, Muslim Brootherhood members.Egypt releases political prisoners, as Tahrir shuns pop star - Channel 4 News

6. "Egypt resumed supplying Israel with natural gas after a six-week interruption" Egypt resumes supply of gas to Israel | j. the Jewish news weekly of Northern California


7. Arab League chief Amr Moussa said that he plans to run for president in his native Egypt , supported the Libyan intervention, but when bombing began, he protested "bombing, Oh, no...I didn't mean that..." Egypt News - Arab League chief Musa to run for Egypt president and Ronju01: Only Amr Musa is against the bombing and he'll run

8. Look closely at the uprisings throughout the region...and watch for green flags, the color of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood.

With a weak and ideologically imbued - and inconsistent- President, the United States should be very careful as to which side we jump to, and how firmly we jump.
 
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… several common assumptions each of which played a major role in hastening the victory of even more repressive dictatorships than had been in place before. These were, first, the belief that there existed at the moment of crisis a democratic alternative to the incumbent government: second, the belief that the continuation of the status quo was not possible; third, the belief that any change, including the establishment of a government headed by self-styled Marxist revolutionaries, was preferable to the present government. Each of these beliefs was (and is) widely shared in the liberal community generally. Not one of them can withstand close scrutiny.
Jeane Kirkpatrick
Dictatorships & Double Standards « Commentary Magazine
 
These uprising cannot be attributed to one thing. The widespread availability of the internet, the rampant inflation of food prices and shortages, the longstanding reign of current restrictive governments, unemployment and the worldwide economic recession have laid the foundation for insurrection and widespread disillusion. All it took was a spark (Tunisia) and the flames were spread across North Africa and are lapping all over the middle east. Even Iran is concerned about the tide coming their way.

While most in the west see these uprising as being something good, what arises out of the ashes are not always something we want to see. In Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood joined the party late but they are organized and are able to quickly fill any void. The same with Hamas and other organizations. That is the danger. The anti western organizations are already there and they are the only groups other than the military who can readily organize. So when the firestorm of 2011 dies out we can expect a more hostile Arab world, not only against the US and the West but Israel. The threat of another Arab-Israeli war is just an image in the fog at present but as that fog dissipates war becomes more concrete and the cost of oil and gas skyrockets.
 
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Reactions: Jos
Over the past several weeks, developments in Egypt have proven just as those of us who urged caution had warned.

Of course, we all want to see democracy pullulate, but the lesson of Egypt is that democracy doesn't always mean democracy. In fact, any opinion of the uprising is apt to be uninformed if one hasn't studied Islamism.

1. There was the warning that, sans the 'tyrant' Mubarak, was ripe for being taken over by the Muslim Brotherhood. "The Muslim Brotherhood, an Islamist group once banned by the state, is at the forefront,.." http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/25/world/middleeast/25egypt.html?_r=3

a. "the young, educated secular activists who initially propelled the nonideological revolution are no longer the driving political force..."Ibid.

b. "“There is evidence the Brotherhood struck some kind of a deal with the military early on,” Ibid.

2. In fact, several of the individuals assigned to write a new constitution were, in fact, members of the Muslim Brotherhood. " A Brotherhood member was also appointed to the committee that drafted amendments to the Constitution. NYTimes, op.cit.
a. "the Muslim Brotherhood in a square in Alexandria instructed voters that it was their “religious duty” to vote “yes” on the amendments. In the end, 77.2 percent of those who voted said yes." NYTImes, Ibid.

b. There are representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood in the group that is writing a constitution for Egypt…and their input will produce an Islamist document.Egypt’s Writing of A New Constitution Holds Little or No Room for Egyptian Chrisitans and Women | Chandler's Watch

3. Iranian ships were allowed through the Suez Canal. Egypt banks, pyramids open, some protest in Cairo - The West Australian

4. In an ominous sign of things to come in Egypt, Christians were called upon during Friday’s service held in Cairo’s Tahrir Square, to bow down and submit to Allah….the words can only mean one thing; that Christians must bow down and submit to Allah and eventually live under Sharia rule. Tahrir Square

a. "rise and the overpowering force of Islam." NYTimes, op.cit.

b. In a Friday sermon delivered by Sheikh Yusuf Al-Qaradawi, perhaps the leading current intellectual force behind the Muslim Brotherhood, the imam delivered a blistering diatribe to an estimated crowd of 1M gathered at Tahrir Square, Cairo, urging war with Israel and conquest of Jerusalem. Sheikh Al-Qaradawi, Friday Prayers In Tahrir Square - Sheikh Al-Qaradawi, Friday Prayers In Tahrir Square - "Pray-by PipeLineNews.org

c. Two important things happened during Qaradawi’s appearance in Cairo. First, his handlers refused to allow Google’s Egyptian Internet revolutionary Wael Ghonim to join the cleric on the dais. For anyone willing to notice, Qaradawi’s message in spurning Ghonim was indisputable. As far as the jihadists are concerned, Ghonim and his fellow Internet activists are the present day equivalent of Lenin’s useful idiots. Caroline B. Glick: Egypt's Useful Idiots - Israel Insider

5. Thousands of prisoners have been freed from Egyptian prisons, many of them...you guessed it, Muslim Brootherhood members.Egypt releases political prisoners, as Tahrir shuns pop star - Channel 4 News

6. "Egypt resumed supplying Israel with natural gas after a six-week interruption" Egypt resumes supply of gas to Israel | j. the Jewish news weekly of Northern California


7. Arab League chief Amr Moussa said that he plans to run for president in his native Egypt , supported the Libyan intervention, but when bombing began, he protested "bombing, Oh, no...I didn't mean that..." Egypt News - Arab League chief Musa to run for Egypt president and Ronju01: Only Amr Musa is against the bombing and he'll run

8. Look closely at the uprisings throughout the region...and watch for green flags, the color of Hamas and the Muslim Brotherhood.

With a weak and ideologically imbued - and inconsistent- President, the United States should be very careful as to which side we jump to, and how firmly we jump.
Yep... this just in from our "No Shit Sherlock" dept.

I saw this coming the instant the demands for Mubarak's toppling was demanded without compromise. And like spoiled children who won the battle of bedtime with their parents are now running amok around the world.

Throw a tantrum and get your way.
 
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Reactions: Jos
These uprising cannot be attributed to one thing. The widespread availability of the internet, the rampant inflation of food prices and shortages, the longstanding reign of current restrictive governments, unemployment and the worldwide economic recession have laid the foundation for insurrection and widespread disillusion. All it took was a spark (Tunisia) and the flames were spread across North Africa and are lapping all over the middle east. Even Iran is concerned about the tide coming their way.

While most in the west see these uprising as being something good, what arises out of the ashes are not always something we want to see. In Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood joined the party late but they are organized and are able to quickly fill any void. The same with Hamas and other organizations. That is the danger. The anti western organizations are already there and they are the only groups other than the military who can readily organize. So when the firestorm of 2011 dies out we can expect a more hostile Arab world, not only against the US and the West but Israel. The threat of another Arab-Israeli war is just an image in the fog at present but as that fog dissipates war becomes more concrete and the cost of oil and gas skyrockets.
The idealists and secular 'reformers' are happy, sated and worn out. Now it's for the opportunists and scavengers to rule the battlefield while the victors revel and relax and boast of their conquest. When they return they will find their conquered land occupied by a much more dangerous foe who has less compunction about killing them off to maintain their power.

A cycle as old as man.
 
1. As long as Muslim Brotherhood is not involved in criminal activities you can't ban them and throw them into jail.

2. If Egyptians want a constitution representing all of society, then people from Muslim Brotherhood will contribute to it.
You claim, that Muslim Brotherhood is leading political force in Egypt, but want to exclude them from being represented in committees to amend the constitution?
Sounds like Dictatorship and not inclusive Democracy.

3. Why shouldn't Iranian ships be allowed to sail through Suez?

5. As long as they have no criminal record, they should be released.

6. Poor negotiated contract, otherwise Israelis would take Egyptians to court for breaking contract.

8. If that assumption turns out to be true, you have to live with it. Especially when conservative parties come to power without major election irregularities.
 
These uprising cannot be attributed to one thing. The widespread availability of the internet, the rampant inflation of food prices and shortages, the longstanding reign of current restrictive governments, unemployment and the worldwide economic recession have laid the foundation for insurrection and widespread disillusion. All it took was a spark (Tunisia) and the flames were spread across North Africa and are lapping all over the middle east. Even Iran is concerned about the tide coming their way.

While most in the west see these uprising as being something good, what arises out of the ashes are not always something we want to see. In Egypt the Muslim Brotherhood joined the party late but they are organized and are able to quickly fill any void. The same with Hamas and other organizations. That is the danger. The anti western organizations are already there and they are the only groups other than the military who can readily organize. So when the firestorm of 2011 dies out we can expect a more hostile Arab world, not only against the US and the West but Israel. The threat of another Arab-Israeli war is just an image in the fog at present but as that fog dissipates war becomes more concrete and the cost of oil and gas skyrockets.
The idealists and secular 'reformers' are happy, sated and worn out. Now it's for the opportunists and scavengers to rule the battlefield while the victors revel and relax and boast of their conquest. When they return they will find their conquered land occupied by a much more dangerous foe who has less compunction about killing them off to maintain their power.

A cycle as old as man.

It's all alla akber anyway...
 
While most in the west see these uprising as being something good, what arises out of the ashes are not always something we want to see.

Egypt is one of the winning cards in the geopolitical card-game.
The Egyptian people kicked off an internal dynamic, which can't be controlled from outside.

There is no other option besides cooperating with Egypt no matter who really will govern Egypt. So long as the USA still wants to play Superpower game.
 
You will not only cooperate with Egypt, but you will also transfer the same amount of military aid to a 'Muslim Brotherhood'-controlled Egypt like you did with Mubarak-Egypt.
Money = influence.

Egypt is far too important to begin some risky games of trying to isolate it due to a system change.
 
1. As long as Muslim Brotherhood is not involved in criminal activities you can't ban them and throw them into jail.

2. If Egyptians want a constitution representing all of society, then people from Muslim Brotherhood will contribute to it.
You claim, that Muslim Brotherhood is leading political force in Egypt, but want to exclude them from being represented in committees to amend the constitution?
Sounds like Dictatorship and not inclusive Democracy.

3. Why shouldn't Iranian ships be allowed to sail through Suez?

5. As long as they have no criminal record, they should be released.

6. Poor negotiated contract, otherwise Israelis would take Egyptians to court for breaking contract.

8. If that assumption turns out to be true, you have to live with it. Especially when conservative parties come to power without major election irregularities.

Ek, the OP is directed toward the West, not the Egyptians...how and where we direct our friendship and influence should consider the ramifications.

As for your absurd comments about the Muslim Brotherhood and the Iranian ships, your willful ignornce about these two speaks volumes.

And finally, the brilliant Jeane Kirkpatrick, warning us from the grave, wrote post #2 in 1979, and it applies today, in this situation.

Let me repeat one line: "...the belief that any change, including the establishment of a government headed by self-styled Marxist revolutionaries, was preferable to the present government. " should be a lesson we learned.
 
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Ek, the OP is directed toward the West, not the Egyptians...how and where we direct our friendship and influence should consider the ramifications.

As for your absurd comments about the Muslim Brotherhood and the Iranian ships, your willful ignorance about these two speaks volumes.

And finally, the brilliant Jeane Kirkpatrick, warning us from the grave, wrote post #2 in 1979, and it applies today, in this situation.

Let me repeat one line: "...the belief that any change, including the establishment of a government headed by self-styled Marxist revolutionaries, was preferable to the present government. " should be a lesson we learned.

2015 will be a time of real change methinks. It's not ekrems ignorance.

He simply wishes. Been wishing for a long time. All the whilst they kill everyone in their arena who do not have their wish.
 
As for your absurd comments about the Muslim Brotherhood and the Iranian ships, your willful ignornce about these two speaks volumes.

The Iranians have payed 300.000 Dollars to pass the Suez-Canal.
TRT HABER -
Probably they will pay another 300.000 $ on their way back.

The Iranians did not apply to the Muslim Brotherhood to let their Ships pass through, but applied to the Egyptian Defense Ministry. As the regularities of Suez Canal demand.
Either apply to Foreign Ministry or Defense Ministry of Egypt.
Suez Canal Authority - Rules of Navigation

No willfull ignorance here on my side.
 
Destroyer USS Winston S. Churchill passing Suez Canal.
So, what's the problem?
hb0imirnpxgenr1100xa.jpg
 
Uh oh....infection spreading:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Intelligence on the rebel forces battling Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi has shown "flickers" of al Qaeda or Hezbollah presence but there is still no detailed picture of the emerging opposition, NATO's top operations commander said on Tuesday.

"We are examining very closely the content, composition, the personalities, who are the leaders of these opposition forces," Admiral James Stavridis, NATO's supreme allied commander for Europe and also commander of U.S. European Command, said during testimony at the U.S. Senate."
Intelligence on Libya rebels shows hints of Qaeda - Yahoo! News
 
Uh oh....infection spreading:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Intelligence on the rebel forces battling Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi has shown "flickers" of al Qaeda or Hezbollah presence but there is still no detailed picture of the emerging opposition, NATO's top operations commander said on Tuesday.

"We are examining very closely the content, composition, the personalities, who are the leaders of these opposition forces," Admiral James Stavridis, NATO's supreme allied commander for Europe and also commander of U.S. European Command, said during testimony at the U.S. Senate."
Intelligence on Libya rebels shows hints of Qaeda - Yahoo! News

Libya sent the most foreign fighters to Iraq besides the Saudis, Libya does have a high number of Islamic radicals, and the irony of this is the US is providing air cover for men who fought our troops in Iraq.:cuckoo:
 
CIA Libya Rebels are Al-Qaeda Fighters From Iraq

Washington DC, March 24, 2011 — The current military attack on Libya has been motivated by UN Security Council resolution 1973 with the need to protect civilians. Statements by President Obama, British Prime Minister Cameron, French President Sarkozy, and other leaders have stressed the humanitarian nature of the intervention, which is said to aim at preventing a massacre of pro-democracy forces and human rights advocates by the Qaddafi regime.


But at the same time, many commentators have voiced anxiety because of the mystery which surrounds the anti-Qaddafi transitional government which emerged at the beginning of March in the city of Benghazi, located in the Cyrenaica district of north-eastern Libya. This government has already been recognized by France and Portugal as the sole legitimate representative of the Libyan people. The rebel council seems to be composed of just over 30 delegates, many of whom are enveloped in obscurity. In addition, the names of more than a dozen members of the rebel council are being kept secret, allegedly to protect them from the vengeance of Qaddafi. But there may be other reasons for the anonymity of these figures. Despite much uncertainty, the United Nations and its several key NATO countries, including the United States, have rushed forward to assist the armed forces of this rebel regime with air strikes, leading to the loss of one or two coalition aircraft and the prospect of heavier losses to come, especially if there should be an invasion. It is high time that American and European publics learned something more about this rebel regime which is supposed to represent a democratic and humanitarian alternative to Gaddafi.

The rebels are clearly not civilians, but an armed force. What kind of an armed force?

Since many of the rebel leaders are so difficult to research from afar, and since a sociological profile of the rebels cannot be done on the ground in the midst of warfare, perhaps the typical methods of social history can be called on for help. Is there a way for us to gain deeper insight into the climate of opinion which prevails in such northeastern Libyan cities as Benghazi, Tobruk, and Darnah, the main population centers of the rebellion?



It turns out that there is, in the form of a December 2007 West Point study examining the background of foreign guerrilla fighters — jihadis or mujahedin, including suicide bombers — crossing the Syrian border into Iraq during the 2006-2007 timeframe, under the auspices of the international terrorist organization Al Qaeda. This study is based on a mass of about 600 Al Qaeda personnel files which were captured by US forces in the fall of 2007, and analyzed at West Point using a methodology which we will discuss after having presented the main findings. The resulting study1 permits us to make important findings about the mentality and belief structures of the northeastern Libyan population that is furnishing the basis for the rebellion, permitting important conclusions about the political nature of the anti-Qaddafi revolt in these areas.

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article27232.html
 

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