Economy on the Mend?

[jillian]

LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the ten indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in July. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were interest rate spread, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), average weekly manufacturing hours, index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), stock prices, and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods*. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were index of consumer expectations, real money supply*, and building permits. The manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials* held steady in July.

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. now stands at 101.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in June and increased 1.2 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the leading economic index increased 3.0 percent, with eight out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four indicators that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. increased in July. The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were industrial production, personal income less transfer payments* and manufacturing and trade sales*. The negative contributor was employees on nonagricultural payrolls.

The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. now stands at 99.7 (2004=100). This index decreased 0.4 percent in June and decreased 0.4 percent in May. During the six-month period through July, the coincident economic index decreased 2.7 percent, with none of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).

LAGGING INDICATORS. The Conference Board LAG for the U.S. stands at 110.8 (2004=100) in July, with one of the seven components advancing. The positive contributor to the index was the ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income*. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were commercial and industrial loans outstanding*, average duration of unemployment (inverted), change in labor cost per unit of output*, change in CPI for services and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales*. The average prime rate charged by banks held steady in July. Based on revised data, the lagging economic index decreased 0.7 percent in June and decreased 0.6 percent in May.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. Improves Again

The rightwingnuts who want the country to fail must be so upset....

 

[RetiredGySgt]

LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the ten indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in July. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were interest rate spread, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), average weekly manufacturing hours, index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), stock prices, and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods*. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were index of consumer expectations, real money supply*, and building permits. The manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials* held steady in July.

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. now stands at 101.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in June and increased 1.2 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the leading economic index increased 3.0 percent, with eight out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four indicators that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. increased in July. The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were industrial production, personal income less transfer payments* and manufacturing and trade sales*. The negative contributor was employees on nonagricultural payrolls.

The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. now stands at 99.7 (2004=100). This index decreased 0.4 percent in June and decreased 0.4 percent in May. During the six-month period through July, the coincident economic index decreased 2.7 percent, with none of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).

LAGGING INDICATORS. The Conference Board LAG for the U.S. stands at 110.8 (2004=100) in July, with one of the seven components advancing. The positive contributor to the index was the ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income*. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were commercial and industrial loans outstanding*, average duration of unemployment (inverted), change in labor cost per unit of output*, change in CPI for services and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales*. The average prime rate charged by banks held steady in July. Based on revised data, the lagging economic index decreased 0.7 percent in June and decreased 0.6 percent in May.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. Improves Again

The rightwingnuts who want the country to fail must be so upset....

Wishing the economy was better is not really making it better. Unemployment is still happening, income is stagnate and Housing is still being sold to people that can not afford to pay for it long term. Last I heard Building business is on the verge of collapse, as in none home construction. Banks are still in trouble as well.

Go ahead tell us how when hundreds of thousands lose their job each month unemployment goes down.

 

[jillian]

Unemployment is always the last of the indicators to improve....

but at least the economy's not in freefall anymore....

when we came out of daddy bush's recession, it took a while for jobs to follow, too....

where were you on the economy when it was being run into the ground?

unlike the "i want the country to fail" crew, i'm just glad to see it starting to turn around.

 

[Toro]

Yes, the economy is stabilizing and getting better. We will probably have growth this quarter and for the next few quarters. However, the economy is likely to be weak for some time, even if the initial bounce is stronger than expected, and we may roll back into recession next year or in 2011.

 

[jillian]

Thanks for that. I was hoping you'd comment on this since you're my resident economic expert....

I know we certainly have a long way to go. But it seems, to me at least, that the steps we've taken stopped the bleeding.

What else, if anything, do you think should be done to bolster the fledgling recovery?

 

[Paulie]

Thanks for that. I was hoping you'd comment on this since you're my resident economic expert....

I know we certainly have a long way to go. But it seems, to me at least, that the steps we've taken stopped the bleeding.

What else, if anything, do you think should be done to bolster the fledgling recovery?

If the Federal Reserve doesn't get it right on their exit strategy for all the newly created money that was used to bail everyone out, there will be no such thing as recovery.

You don't have to be an economic expert to be worried about this:

 

[Neubarth]

Yes, the economy is stabilizing and getting better. We will probably have growth this quarter and for the next few quarters. However, the economy is likely to be weak for some time, even if the initial bounce is stronger than expected, and we may roll back into recession next year or in 2011.

Toro, we are not in a Recession. This is a Depression. We can lie all we want and create false indications of economic recovery with boosted Car sales and First Time Homes sale credits, but the reality is that more and more people are losing their jobs as stores are closing left and right. Plywood in the windows is a frightening sign, but there are lots of windows with plywood in them.

I survey the Frisco Bay area on a weekly basis to get a feel for how bad it is. The number of people I have seen sleeping in cardboard boxes (near the streets and alleys of the downtown city areas (where the rescue missions are located and free meals can be had if you line up early enough) has increased ten fold since Obama became president. The number of autos with expired registrations is rapidly increasing. My guess is that the same percentage of people do not have auto insurance now-a-days. Cars with people sleeping in them on the residential streets has increased by a factor of five in the past three/four months. As more and more people fall off of the back end of the Unemployment Insurance benefits programs, that number will skyrocket. In a cardboard box you can get wet when it rains. In your car you can still stay dry.

My home is in San Diego, and this winter I expect to see thousands of homeless who will migrate south for the winter. I wonder if San Diego is ready for the onslaught?

I will be in the Oakland area for the next seven weeks. Recent observations about Oakland. I have been up here several times in my life. Now I am doing research on a book about the South Pacific. Oakland is cutting back on its police force. At night I used to hear gunfire almost every hour of the night. Then I would hear the police sirens as the cars converged on the area of the loud report of the weapon(s). When front running governor candidate Jerry Brown (Formerly Governor Moonbeam - Who is a lifetime career politician like my useless representative in Congress, Brian Bilbray, who has also held over a half dozen different government positions in his life) was Mayor of Oakland, the city put in an "expensive direction finding triangulation gunfire report finding and ranging system."

I guess that is what you would call it. (I just made that name up, but it is apt.) At any rate when the guns are fired, the dispatcher can give the police an address to run to in their sleek police cruisers so they can investigate. Many times, some teenager or old man is found bleeding in the street, or gang members are congregating in front of some gang member's house and they tell the police that they "heard nothing" and "saw nothing" and that will be that. The police can not stay there and write a detailed report if nobody will cooperate. Since the funds for this program have been cut, I am not awakened by the screaming police sirens at night as much as I used to be. The gunfire I can sleep through now, so with the stilled police sirens, I am getting more sleep at night. Since I am almost 62, that is a good thing. You just have to convince yourself that the gunfire is popcorn popping.

 

[Toro]

Neubarth

I see no homeless people where I live. In fact, I have started to see fast food places advertise for people again.

 

[Neubarth]

Toro, not all areas are equally impacted by this Depression. In some parts of the Midwest where the economy is largely land based, there are no indications of any distress at all. Corn prices are up and all is right with the world.

In California there is a new Dust Bowl in large parts of the rich Central Valley. Unemployment in parts of California is over 30%. In Oakland, I know it has to be over 25% at least. If you are in a "safe" area, you will still need to prepare for what you are going to do when the bands of vagabonds start drifting into your town. It is coming.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The economic indicators are up, the climb for reducing unemployment is going to take awhile, because of what the conservative Pubs did under Bush. That is what the Dems will preach, and what the voters will reach.

My GOP will not get healthy until we destroy the rotten far right wing of it. Uproot it, pile on the political bonfire, and torch it.

 

[jillian]

If the Federal Reserve doesn't get it right on their exit strategy for all the newly created money that was used to bail everyone out, there will be no such thing as recovery.

You don't have to be an economic expert to be worried about this:

I think that issue is the least of what is going to affect us. And re-upping Bernanke is a pretty good indication of how it's going to go. He's a pretty measured guy.

Interestingly, it's Alan Greenspan, who has faith in the same "free market" as so many libertarians, who seems to have contributed to the issues we have now... though by no means the biggest contributing factor.

 

[JakeStarkey]

If the Federal Reserve doesn't get it right on their exit strategy for all the newly created money that was used to bail everyone out, there will be no such thing as recovery.

You don't have to be an economic expert to be worried about this:

I think that issue is the least of what is going to affect us. And re-upping Bernanke is a pretty good indication of how it's going to go. He's a pretty measured guy.

Interestingly, it's Alan Greenspan, who has faith in the same "free market" as so many libertarians, who seems to have contributed to the issues we have now... though by no means the biggest contributing factor.

The supporters of Freidman and Bernancke love business and despise America. For them, it is the almight dollar and make the poor holler.

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

If the Federal Reserve doesn't get it right on their exit strategy for all the newly created money that was used to bail everyone out, there will be no such thing as recovery.

You don't have to be an economic expert to be worried about this:

I think that issue is the least of what is going to affect us. And re-upping Bernanke is a pretty good indication of how it's going to go. He's a pretty measured guy.

Interestingly, it's Alan Greenspan, who has faith in the same "free market" as so many libertarians, who seems to have contributed to the issues we have now... though by no means the biggest contributing factor.

How can the top central banker be a real supporter of the free market? It makes no sense. And how can you logically praise Bernanke but not Greenspan? Greenspan did essentially the same things Bernanke is doing now during the tech bust, and our current recession could be considered the result of not taking our medicine then.

 

[jillian]

If the Federal Reserve doesn't get it right on their exit strategy for all the newly created money that was used to bail everyone out, there will be no such thing as recovery.

You don't have to be an economic expert to be worried about this:

I think that issue is the least of what is going to affect us. And re-upping Bernanke is a pretty good indication of how it's going to go. He's a pretty measured guy.

Interestingly, it's Alan Greenspan, who has faith in the same "free market" as so many libertarians, who seems to have contributed to the issues we have now... though by no means the biggest contributing factor.

How can the top central banker be a real supporter of the free market? It makes no sense. And how can you logically praise Bernanke but not Greenspan? Greenspan did essentially the same things Bernanke is doing now during the tech bust, and our current recession could be considered the result of not taking our medicine then.

Greenspan himself said, (and i'm paraphrasing) that he was surprised that corporate America didn't right itself and acted so irresponsibly.

And it makes perfect sense.

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

I think that issue is the least of what is going to affect us. And re-upping Bernanke is a pretty good indication of how it's going to go. He's a pretty measured guy.

Interestingly, it's Alan Greenspan, who has faith in the same "free market" as so many libertarians, who seems to have contributed to the issues we have now... though by no means the biggest contributing factor.

How can the top central banker be a real supporter of the free market? It makes no sense. And how can you logically praise Bernanke but not Greenspan? Greenspan did essentially the same things Bernanke is doing now during the tech bust, and our current recession could be considered the result of not taking our medicine then.

Greenspan himself said, (and i'm paraphrasing) that he was surprised that corporate America didn't right itself and acted so irresponsibly.

And it makes perfect sense.

If you looked only at what Greenspan said then I agree you'd think he was a supporter of the free market. However, a free market Fed chairman is an oxymoron. The Federal Reserve exists to subvert the free market so it makes no sense.

Bernanke has interest rates at 0 percent, whereas Greenspan had them at 1 percent. That's about the only difference between them. They're both following the same policy of trying to "stimulate" the economy into recovery, which of course only sets us up for a bigger bust down the road if it's even successful at all.

 

[RodISHI]

If you looked only at what Greenspan said then I agree you'd think he was a supporter of the free market. However, a free market Fed chairman is an oxymoron. The Federal Reserve exists to subvert the free market so it makes no sense.

Bernanke has interest rates at 0 percent, whereas Greenspan had them at 1 percent. That's about the only difference between them. They're both following the same policy of trying to "stimulate" the economy into recovery, which of course only sets us up for a bigger bust down the road if it's even successful at all.

That is a couple years down the road but it is coming. They can't provide big enough band aids to cover the wounds caused by what they have been growing for the last forty years.

 

[Paulie]

If the Federal Reserve doesn't get it right on their exit strategy for all the newly created money that was used to bail everyone out, there will be no such thing as recovery.

You don't have to be an economic expert to be worried about this:

I think that issue is the least of what is going to affect us. And re-upping Bernanke is a pretty good indication of how it's going to go. He's a pretty measured guy.

Interestingly, it's Alan Greenspan, who has faith in the same "free market" as so many libertarians, who seems to have contributed to the issues we have now... though by no means the biggest contributing factor.

Being the head of an organization like the Federal Reserve flies in the face of libertarianism and free markets. The Fed is the antithesis of a free market.

And I'm not sure how you could say the money supply issue is the least of our concerns. The Fed raised the monetary base 100%, which is unprecedented. And we're in a liquidity trap, so that money may NEVER do what it was supposed to do, other than strengthen bank balance sheets and make more execs richer than they already are.

How the economy moves is directly related to monetary policy. We're looking at the possibility of some of the worst inflation we've ever seen as a nation. Those who are saving, have saved, and would LIKE to save in the future, are most likely going to be severely punished for it.

That's not a healthy economy.

You don't forecast the economy without knowing the monetary situation. It just doesn't make any sense. The price of food is more than likely going to go through the roof, while employment stays stagnant for another couple years. All that can really be hoped for is for employment to rise again before the inflation comes.

When employment rises again though, that will most likely trigger more demand for credit, which will let the flood gates open and all those newly created dollars to enter the economy.

It could be a disaster. And there's really no reason to have faith in Bernanke to figure it out without making a grave mistake, because all of his predecesors since the Fed was created have gotten that part wrong. EVERY ONE.

He's faced with probably the toughest monetary policy challenge that's ever existed.

God help us.

 

[Kevin_Kennedy]

If you looked only at what Greenspan said then I agree you'd think he was a supporter of the free market. However, a free market Fed chairman is an oxymoron. The Federal Reserve exists to subvert the free market so it makes no sense.

Bernanke has interest rates at 0 percent, whereas Greenspan had them at 1 percent. That's about the only difference between them. They're both following the same policy of trying to "stimulate" the economy into recovery, which of course only sets us up for a bigger bust down the road if it's even successful at all.

That is a couple years down the road but it is coming. They can't provide big enough band aids to cover the wounds caused by what they have been growing for the last forty years.

If they succeed in reflating the bubble, or creating another bubble, the bust will come sooner and will be far worse than the housing bust.

 

[Mad Scientist]

LEADING INDICATORS. Six of the ten indicators that make up The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. increased in July. The positive contributors – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were interest rate spread, average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance (inverted), average weekly manufacturing hours, index of supplier deliveries (vendor performance), stock prices, and manufacturers' new orders for nondefense capital goods*. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were index of consumer expectations, real money supply*, and building permits. The manufacturers' new orders for consumer goods and materials* held steady in July.

The Conference Board LEI for the U.S. now stands at 101.6 (2004=100). Based on revised data, this index increased 0.8 percent in June and increased 1.2 percent in May. During the six-month span through July, the leading economic index increased 3.0 percent, with eight out of ten components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 85 percent).

COINCIDENT INDICATORS. Three of the four indicators that make up The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. increased in July. The positive contributors to the index – beginning with the largest positive contributor – were industrial production, personal income less transfer payments* and manufacturing and trade sales*. The negative contributor was employees on nonagricultural payrolls.

The Conference Board CEI for the U.S. now stands at 99.7 (2004=100). This index decreased 0.4 percent in June and decreased 0.4 percent in May. During the six-month period through July, the coincident economic index decreased 2.7 percent, with none of the four components advancing (diffusion index, six-month span equals 0.0 percent).

LAGGING INDICATORS. The Conference Board LAG for the U.S. stands at 110.8 (2004=100) in July, with one of the seven components advancing. The positive contributor to the index was the ratio of consumer installment credit to personal income*. The negative contributors – beginning with the largest negative contributor – were commercial and industrial loans outstanding*, average duration of unemployment (inverted), change in labor cost per unit of output*, change in CPI for services and the ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales*. The average prime rate charged by banks held steady in July. Based on revised data, the lagging economic index decreased 0.7 percent in June and decreased 0.6 percent in May.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index™ (LEI) for the U.S. Improves Again
The rightwingnuts who want the country to fail must be so upset....

Just imagine if McCain were President. With unemployment nearing 10 percent and the stock market going up you would be calling for his head.

"McCain only cares about Corporate America and wars in the the Middle East while ignoring the plight of Americas poor!".

 

[jillian]

Just imagine if McCain were President. With unemployment nearing 10 percent and the stock market going up you would be calling for his head.

"McCain only cares about Corporate America and wars in the the Middle East while ignoring the plight of Americas poor!".

I was actually trying to be non-partisan about this thread because it's a subject that I think is too important to be like that with...

but since you asked...

if McCain were president (perish the thought)....I don't believe he'd be doing the things needed to make the economy better. I think he would be talking about the same ole same ole that got us here.

Now...if McCain had picked Romney instead of trying to suck up to the right with Sarah..... might have been a whole other story.

So for me it's about "how do we fix Bush's mess?"

And McCain admitted he didn't "know much about economics"....and the people he surrounded himself with were the same people who got us here.