Economic Collapse or Market Downturn in 2017 - Discussion

EconomyKing

Rookie
Jan 10, 2017
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Hey Guys,

I'm new to this forum.

I strongly believe unless the "War on Terror", escalates the stock market will continue to rise in 2017. I do not see corporate profits falling and the dollar falling to much in 2017.

What do you think about the video below? I like the 3rd reason but besides that I think my economic view is correct, as it was in 2016.

I also, do not think Trump will change the foreign policy to much which would cause some disruptions.

Anyways here is the video:

 
Hey Guys,

I'm new to this forum.

I strongly believe unless the "War on Terror", escalates the stock market will continue to rise in 2017. I do not see corporate profits falling and the dollar falling to much in 2017.

What do you think about the video below? I like the 3rd reason but besides that I think my economic view is correct, as it was in 2016.

I also, do not think Trump will change the foreign policy to much which would cause some disruptions.

Anyways here is the video:



Disagreement at the margin.

Venezuela, energy prices and most of the blue wall will in fact collapse.

Small and medium sized businesses in the US will boom due to deregulation as will the oil patch.
 
Hey Guys,

I'm new to this forum.

I strongly believe unless the "War on Terror", escalates the stock market will continue to rise in 2017. I do not see corporate profits falling and the dollar falling to much in 2017.

What do you think about the video below? I like the 3rd reason but besides that I think my economic view is correct, as it was in 2016.

I also, do not think Trump will change the foreign policy to much which would cause some disruptions.

Anyways here is the video:


Most experts expect big business to suffer shrinking profits and falling stock prices.

Middle markets and small cap stocks are expected to provide the most opportunity for gains.
 
I think we are overdue for a correction but that some sort of Trump effect will give us another 2 years of bull market then a bigger inevitable fall.
 
I think we are overdue for a correction but that some sort of Trump effect will give us another 2 years of bull market then a bigger inevitable fall.
I disagree. Trump will mess up existing trade agreements. Hundreds of thousands of jobs will be lost.
The main reason jobs left is that they didn't leave. They were automated.

Carrier to ultimately cut some of jobs Trump saved

We're going to...automate to drive the cost down so that we can continue to be competitive," he said on an interview on CNBC earlier this week. "Is it as cheap as moving to Mexico with lower cost labor? No. But we will make that plant competitive just because we'll make the capital investments there. But what that ultimately means is there will be fewer jobs."

-----------------------

Not sure Trump knows he is lying. It's possible he just doesn't understand automation.
 
Economic performance over the next six months is pretty much already baked in (policies don't show effects immediately). All the models predict a slower growth rate for the first half of 2017.
 
I make more money in a bear mkt than a bull market so I dont really care what happens, but I do think the bull run just got a two year extension. I agree with oldfart, these things move slowly. We;ll see.
 
With jaw-boning and similar strategies the anemic but definite post election up tick should continue but I agree with Old Fart at least six months of compounding will be needed to get a major improvement like hitting 2-2.5% annualized growth.
 
People talk about "the economy" as if it were a unitary thing. Some indicators start a movement before others ("leading indicators"), others move about six months later ("concurrent indicators") and some may take up to two years to show up ("lagging indicators"). Technically, the stock market is a leading indicator, so trying to predict it from most other data indicators doesn't work. Keynes (a wildly successful speculator) thought the stock market was driven by "animal spirits". Just about the last lagging indicator is the unemployment rate (the dead last is wage growth).

Whatever Trump and circus try to do economically will probably dribble in over the next year in its effects. And when you try to change a lot of things at the same time (revamp healthcare, trade agreements, and overhaul regulations for example) it gets really hard to link any policy to any of the actual results. In the words of the Wise Economist: "Ceteris is never parabis".
 
People talk about "the economy" as if it were a unitary thing. Some indicators start a movement before others ("leading indicators"), others move about six months later ("concurrent indicators") and some may take up to two years to show up ("lagging indicators"). Technically, the stock market is a leading indicator, so trying to predict it from most other data indicators doesn't work. Keynes (a wildly successful speculator) thought the stock market was driven by "animal spirits". Just about the last lagging indicator is the unemployment rate (the dead last is wage growth).

Whatever Trump and circus try to do economically will probably dribble in over the next year in its effects. And when you try to change a lot of things at the same time (revamp healthcare, trade agreements, and overhaul regulations for example) it gets really hard to link any policy to any of the actual results. In the words of the Wise Economist: "Ceteris is never parabis".
Have you taken a look at the proposed corporate tax bill in the house? 20% flat rate and taxes are computed on the basis of domestic revenues-domestic costs. If anything like that is passed X-M and NNI are going to go into uncharted territory. Forget about a little nitro in the tank that would be more like a solid fuel rocket. CNBC had a story about this a couple of days ago.
 
People talk about "the economy" as if it were a unitary thing. Some indicators start a movement before others ("leading indicators"), others move about six months later ("concurrent indicators") and some may take up to two years to show up ("lagging indicators"). Technically, the stock market is a leading indicator, so trying to predict it from most other data indicators doesn't work. Keynes (a wildly successful speculator) thought the stock market was driven by "animal spirits". Just about the last lagging indicator is the unemployment rate (the dead last is wage growth).

Whatever Trump and circus try to do economically will probably dribble in over the next year in its effects. And when you try to change a lot of things at the same time (revamp healthcare, trade agreements, and overhaul regulations for example) it gets really hard to link any policy to any of the actual results. In the words of the Wise Economist: "Ceteris is never parabis".
Have you taken a look at the proposed corporate tax bill in the house? 20% flat rate and taxes are computed on the basis of domestic revenues-domestic costs. If anything like that is passed X-M and NNI are going to go into uncharted territory. Forget about a little nitro in the tank that would be more like a solid fuel rocket. CNBC had a story about this a couple of days ago.

Not sure what the macro effects of corporate tax changes would really be. The largest corporations generally pay a tax rate well under 20% now; the highest rate mainly applies to mid-sized domestic corporations. I don't see much in the way of real trade effects. The main effect of lower corporate tax rates is to reduce the attractiveness of tax avoidance schemes and tax credits.
 
People talk about "the economy" as if it were a unitary thing. Some indicators start a movement before others ("leading indicators"), others move about six months later ("concurrent indicators") and some may take up to two years to show up ("lagging indicators"). Technically, the stock market is a leading indicator, so trying to predict it from most other data indicators doesn't work. Keynes (a wildly successful speculator) thought the stock market was driven by "animal spirits". Just about the last lagging indicator is the unemployment rate (the dead last is wage growth).

Whatever Trump and circus try to do economically will probably dribble in over the next year in its effects. And when you try to change a lot of things at the same time (revamp healthcare, trade agreements, and overhaul regulations for example) it gets really hard to link any policy to any of the actual results. In the words of the Wise Economist: "Ceteris is never parabis".
Have you taken a look at the proposed corporate tax bill in the house? 20% flat rate and taxes are computed on the basis of domestic revenues-domestic costs. If anything like that is passed X-M and NNI are going to go into uncharted territory. Forget about a little nitro in the tank that would be more like a solid fuel rocket. CNBC had a story about this a couple of days ago.

Not sure what the macro effects of corporate tax changes would really be. The largest corporations generally pay a tax rate well under 20% now; the highest rate mainly applies to mid-sized domestic corporations. I don't see much in the way of real trade effects. The main effect of lower corporate tax rates is to reduce the attractiveness of tax avoidance schemes and tax credits.

I was thinking more specifically about LNG plants since they will have little or no taxable revenue but will have substantial deductible costs under this scheme. At the other end of spectrum high end women's wear will have nearly all taxable income and nearly zero deductible expenses. M&A activity should go through the roof to maximize after-tax free cashflow.
 

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