East Coast 2014: Cold Winter Ahead?

[CrusaderFrank]

If the wildlife in my backyard in any indication, they are already hunkering down for a cold, snowy winter.

 

[jc456]

If the wildlife in my backyard in any indication, they are already hunkering down for a cold, snowy winter.

Farmers almanac states the NE US is in for a very cold winter this year. And the almanac is 80% correct. So honker down.

 

[mamooth]

No, the FA is not 80% correct. The FA does no better than coin flips.

Farmer's Almanacs: Right as Rain or 3 Dollar Bills? : Discovery News : Discovery News

The FA _says_ they're 80% correct, but people with functioning BS detectors understand that claims and truth are different things. Deniers, not having those working BS detectors, are incapable of viewing claims with a critical eye, which is why they got bamboozled by the denier cult.

 

[jc456]

No, the FA is not 80% correct. The FA does no better than coin flips.

Farmer's Almanacs: Right as Rain or 3 Dollar Bills? : Discovery News : Discovery News

The FA _says_ they're 80% correct, but people with functioning BS detectors understand that claims and truth are different things. Deniers, not having those working BS detectors, are incapable of viewing claims with a critical eye, which is why they got bamboozled by the denier cult.

This is too funny, see, anything that doesn't come from your tobacco laced fingers is considered BS. I got it, so again, your self centered brain has kicked in and onlyyou can be right. Ah, got it. more

 

[mamooth]

jc, you're demonstrating how you got sucked into the denier cult. If you get told something you want to believe, you instantly believe with all your heart, regardless of what the actual data is. You want to believe the FA is accurate, hence you believe, regardless of what the actual data says.

Like I said, your BS detector has blown a fuse. The Home Shopping Channel must love you.

 

[jc456]

jc, you're demonstrating how you got sucked into the denier cult. If you get told something you want to believe, you instantly believe with all your heart, regardless of what the actual data is. You want to believe the FA is accurate, hence you believe, regardless of what the actual data says.

Like I said, your BS detector has blown a fuse. The Home Shopping Channel must love you.

huh? You're telling me that the earth will end if someone doesn't die!! I don't believe you. So your entire premis is wrong just like your entire premis is wrong. haahahahahahahahaahhahahahahahaahahhahahahahaahhahahahahaahah..............

 

[SSDD]

If the wildlife in my backyard in any indication, they are already hunkering down for a cold, snowy winter.

Farmers almanac states the NE US is in for a very cold winter this year. And the almanac is 80% correct. So honker down.

They laughed when I pointed out last fall that the almanac called for a cold winter last year...didn't hear much from them regarding that once again, the almanac hit the nail right on the head...the almanac uses a low sensitivity model....actually, they us a no sensitivity model which is why they are right most of the time..

 

[Crick]

Actually they don't use models at all. From their website:

We derive our weather forecasts from a secret formula that was devised by the founder of this Almanac, Robert B. Thomas, in 1792. Thomas believed that weather on Earth was influenced by sunspots, which are magnetic storms on the surface of the Sun.

Notes about that formula are locked in a black box in our offices in Dublin, New Hampshire. (Yes, that's a photo of the unassuming black box below.)

Over the years, we have refined and enhanced that formula with state-of-the-art technology and modern scientific calculations. We employ three scientific disciplines to make our long-range predictions: solar science, the study of sunspots and other solar activity; climatology, the study of prevailing weather patterns; and meteorology, the study of the atmosphere. We predict weather trends and events by comparing solar patterns and historical weather conditions with current solar activity.

Our forecasts emphasize temperature and precipitation deviations from averages, or normals. These are based on 30-year statistical averages prepared by government meteorological agencies and updated every ten years. The most recent tabulations span the period 1981 through 2010.

We believe that nothing in the universe happens haphazardly, that there is a cause-and-effect pattern to all phenomena. However, although neither we nor any other forecasters have as yet gained sufficient insight into the mysteries of the universe to predict the weather with total accuracy, our results are almost always very close to our traditional claim of 80 percent.

 

[SSDD]

Actually they don't use models at all. From their website:

We derive our weather forecasts from a secret formula that was devised by the founder of this Almanac, Robert B. Thomas, in 1792. Thomas believed that weather on Earth was influenced by sunspots, which are magnetic storms on the surface of the Sun.

And climate science derives its forecasts from a secret formula....the formula for calculating the greenhouse effect is as secret as the Colnel's recipe...and it keeps changing all the time in a failed effort to keep up with observations.

And is a formula not a model? It just never ends with you does it?

 

[Crick]

No. A formula is not a model. Try to keep up.

 

[SSDD]

Yes, a formula isa model....stop lying if you have it in you. You want to tell me that the formula below is not also a model for a sphere?

V = 4/3 π r3

 

[skookerasbil]

No, the FA is not 80% correct. The FA does no better than coin flips.

Farmer's Almanacs: Right as Rain or 3 Dollar Bills? : Discovery News : Discovery News

The FA _says_ they're 80% correct, but people with functioning BS detectors understand that claims and truth are different things. Deniers, not having those working BS detectors, are incapable of viewing claims with a critical eye, which is why they got bamboozled by the denier cult.

losing again s0n >>>


Following rapid warming in the late 20th century, this century has so far seen surprisingly little increase in the average temperature at the Earth’s surface. At first this was a blip, then a trend, then a puzzle for the climate science community.

Evidently, no warming is happening and alot of the world is freezing their balls off ( frigid temps in Scotland this week and highs in the low 70's in the northeast US ).


Here is an excerpt from recently concluded study >>>>>



Following rapid warming in the late 20th century, this century has so far seen surprisingly little increase in the average temperature at the Earth’s surface. At first this was a blip, then a trend, then a puzzle for the climate science community.
More than a dozen theories have now been proposed for the so-called global warming hiatus, ranging from air pollution to volcanoes to sunspots. New research from the University of Washington shows that the heat absent from the surface is plunging deep in the north and south Atlantic Ocean, and is part of a naturally occurring cycle. The study is published Aug. 22 in Science.
Subsurface ocean warming explains why global average air temperatures have flatlined since 1999, despite greenhouse gases trapping more solar heat at the Earth’s surface.



Which thread posters look like dicks?

 

[Pennywise]

We had a very short growing season. Our garden is healthy but not abundant and many trees are already showing signs of autumn. On the plus side we didn't use our air conditioning more than 10 days the entire summer, but I know we are going to pay big this winter.

 

[CrusaderFrank]

What do the AGWCult models say?

 

[CrusaderFrank]

AGWCult modle predicts: Winter in the US East Coast will be warm, cold, weird and/or normal

 

[mamooth]

Check it out. Some kooks are still announcing how proud they are to embrace the superstitious version of weather prediction.

Naturally, all of those kooks are deniers. It goes along with the way they proudly embrace any superstition that pushes their cult's agenda.

By the way, my left elbow aches whenever I read a lie. It usually aches when I read posts from deniers.

 

[jc456]

AGWCult modle predicts: Winter in the US East Coast will be warm, cold, weird and/or normal

Or, whatever happens we predicted it!

 

[jc456]

Check it out. Some kooks are still announcing how proud they are to embrace the superstitious version of weather prediction.

Naturally, all of those kooks are deniers. It goes along with the way they proudly embrace any superstition that pushes their cult's agenda.

By the way, my left elbow aches whenever I read a lie. It usually aches when I read posts from deniers.

Sorry that you have brain aches. You should have your brain checked out.

 

[Crick]

Yes, a formula isa model....stop lying if you have it in you. You want to tell me that the formula below is not also a model for a sphere?

V = 4/3 π r3

You're an idiot. It is a formula giving the relational dependence of V on r.

A mathematical model is a description of a system using mathematical concepts and language. The process of developing a mathematical model is termed mathematical modeling. Mathematical models are used not only in the natural sciences (such as physics, biology, earth science, meteorology) and engineering disciplines (e.g. computer science, artificial intelligence), but also in the social sciences (such as economics, psychology, sociology and political science); physicists, engineers, statisticians, operations research analysts and economists use mathematical models most extensively. A model may help to explain a system and to study the effects of different components, and to make predictions about behaviour.

Mathematical model - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


Your formula allows no exploration of changes in the dependencies. The relationship between r and V is fixed.

 

[SSDD]

sorry you don't know what a model is crick....very sorry for you. Must suck but you surely brought it on yourself.