Earliest Snow Ever Recorded In Rapid City

[Billy_Bob]

Poleward-propagating Rossby waves explain many of the observed statistical teleconnections between low latitude and high latitude climate, as shown in the now classic study by Hoskins and Karoly (1981).[3] Poleward-propagating Rossby waves are an important and unambiguous part of the variability in the Northern Hemisphere, as expressed in the Pacific North America pattern. Similar mechanisms apply in the Southern Hemisphere and partly explain the strong variability in the Amundsen Sea region of Antarctica.[4] In 2011, a Nature Geoscience study using general circulation models linked Pacific Rossby waves generated by increasing central tropical Pacific temperatures to warming of the Amundsen Sea region, leading to winter and spring continental warming of Ellsworth Land and Marie Byrd Land in West Antarctica via an increase in advection.[5]

Rossby wave - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

And all the highlighted items have taken place. I see no mention of mid latitude cooling as a cause. My understanding is that Rossby waves form in response to a build up of heat at the equator, particularly in the Pacific. Something like what was found by Balmaseda, Trenberth and Kallen.

Myslef and many others disagree with Trenbreth and his merry klan. Rossby waves require temperature imbalance. The greater the imbalance the more energetic the wave.. But again you missed the point

Really? And your link for that statement is?

Here are the real facts on what fuels the deepening Rossby Waves.

I disagree with her appraisal.

What is causing the energy imbalance to form? Where is its source derived from? What generates the wind pattern?

She cites the warm water, earths rotation and the pressures in the atmosphere between the polar jet and median jet.

The speed and size of the polar low directly affects the polar jets size and speed. The temperature imbalance between the two boundary areas is what causes the waves to form. The pressures above land near the ocean create the funnel giving them directional form. They oscillate because of earths rotation, day time heating and the moons pull. They are extremely complex and are easily disrupted. GCM's fail to create these and can not predict them as is shown with our current El NAda happening.. The models fail at every turn.

I will suffice it to say I disagree with the modeling they have done and the inputs used. They are missing many critical factors because they can not quantify water vapor and humidity change on the scale required.. Is the wave truly pole ward propagation or is it the overlapping cold/warm convection? The trade winds generally flow in reverse of earths rotation. It is when they shift into the reverse rotation flow that Rossby waves occur. As this year we have had little trade wind flow any generated Rossby waves will be very weak as the temperature imbalance is high at the boundary. In both hemispheres the boundary imbalance is very high as shown by our lack of tropical storms. (The wind shear tears them apart due to the imbalance.)

They make assumptions of correlation equaling causation.

In science I have the right to disagree. In this case I disagree.

 

[Cav Scout]

I have got it! Snow Fell in South Dakota in September! Holy shit~ That proves something...

In 1974 on the farm in Northeastern South Dakota, it snowed on the third of July. Fact! I have pictures of it in my family album. I was there and LIVED through it, it was not the end of the world!

What did it prove?

Not sure, well other than my dad and his buddy were drunk, laughing about it and cleaning fish for our annual family fish fry on the 4th the following day...

 

[Crick]

So... unseasonable snow causes fish to be caught and fried. The evidence is incontrovertible. If you believe otherwise, fishing is some sort of religion with you. You must be accepting the word of your snow-fish-fry gurus as holy dogma, following their marching orders like... well... marching orders.

 

[SSDD]

Snow coming a month early is just weather....not to be confused with climate which apparently would require snow coming 6 months early.

But if we were in the middle of a heat wave, it would be climate, not weather, right?

So sayeth the climate soothsayers....forsooth.

 

[SSDD]

So... unseasonable snow causes fish to be caught and fried. The evidence is incontrovertible. If you believe otherwise, fishing is some sort of religion with you. You must be accepting the word of your snow-fish-fry gurus as holy dogma, following their marching orders like... well... marching orders.

Well, there is as much evidence for that correlation as there is for the CO2/temperature correlation.

 

[Crick]

The snow in Rapid City, North Dakota is due to a Rossby Wave. Rossby waves are due primarily to heating of the tropical Pacific. The snow in Rapid City is NOT due to global cooling.

 

[skookerasbil]

The snow in Rapid City, North Dakota is due to a Rossby Wave. Rossby waves are due primarily to heating of the tropical Pacific. The snow in Rapid City is NOT due to global cooling.

So Crick.....how often do these Rossby waves come along?

 

[Old Rocks]

And in the 80's in Rapid City, SD by midweek. Wider and wilder swings.

 

[Billy_Bob]

The snow in Rapid City, North Dakota is due to a Rossby Wave. Rossby waves are due primarily to heating of the tropical Pacific. The snow in Rapid City is NOT due to global cooling.

Heat always causes snow....

Rossby waves are caused by temperature imbalance and earths natural cycles.

And i guess the massive increase in Antarctic Ice to the point of breaking all historical records is caused by global warming too......

"Antarctic Sea Ice Extent Sept 13 2014 – 1,121,000 sq km above the 1981-2010 mean. Data for Day 255. Data here.
Breaking the record set in 2013 by 48,000 sq km."

Source

 

[Billy_Bob]

And in the 80's in Rapid City, SD by midweek. Wider and wilder swings.

The earth trying to balance the massive cold down-welling in the arctic. Polar Jet enlarged and moving fast. Median jet depressed by Low pressures and blocking highs. Repeat of last winter, only the main target area has moved west.

Wild fluctuations in a cooling world. Temperature imbalance has increased by 2.2 deg C pole to equatorial region. Chances of an El Nino are fading fast...

 

[skookerasbil]

All I know is.......Rossby waves have not contributed AT ALL to summer weather in New York for 53 years........at least. Whats up with that?

Doesn't pass the smell test!!

Summer in New York this year with average temps in the low 80s's and just two degree days over 90!! Its all people re talking about as we get into September......its like summer never came.

 

[Crick]

The cool weather in New York is precisely due to Rossby waves. Do some reading.

 

[skookerasbil]

The cool weather in New York is precisely due to Rossby waves. Do some reading.

So Rossby waves have not impacted the weather in New York in the last 50+ years until 2014??!!





"Rossby Waves migrate from west to east on a 4 to 6 week basis. However, when the Meridional Wave amplitude gets deep, with cold air pushing toward the Equator and warm air toward the Poles the system blocks"

- See more at: Current Global Weather Patterns Normal Despite Government and Media Distortions







[URL='http://s42.photobucket.com/user/baldaltima/media/Sammy-14-4.jpg.html'][/URL]



Every day in here.........more and more evidence that scientist don't know shit about shit about the changing climate.

 

[Crick]

Like I said, do some reading:

http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v471/n7340/full/nature09924.html

 

[Old Rocks]

Poleward-propagating Rossby waves explain many of the observed statistical teleconnections between low latitude and high latitude climate, as shown in the now classic study by Hoskins and Karoly (1981).[3] Poleward-propagating Rossby waves are an important and unambiguous part of the variability in the Northern Hemisphere, as expressed in the Pacific North America pattern. Similar mechanisms apply in the Southern Hemisphere and partly explain the strong variability in the Amundsen Sea region of Antarctica.[4] In 2011, a Nature Geoscience study using general circulation models linked Pacific Rossby waves generated by increasing central tropical Pacific temperatures to warming of the Amundsen Sea region, leading to winter and spring continental warming of Ellsworth Land and Marie Byrd Land in West Antarctica via an increase in advection.[5]

Rossby wave - Wikipedia the free encyclopedia

And all the highlighted items have taken place. I see no mention of mid latitude cooling as a cause. My understanding is that Rossby waves form in response to a build up of heat at the equator, particularly in the Pacific. Something like what was found by Balmaseda, Trenberth and Kallen.

Myslef and many others disagree with Trenbreth and his merry klan. Rossby waves require temperature imbalance. The greater the imbalance the more energetic the wave.. But again you missed the point

Really? And your link for that statement is?

Here are the real facts on what fuels the deepening Rossby Waves.

I disagree with her appraisal.

What is causing the energy imbalance to form? Where is its source derived from? What generates the wind pattern?

She cites the warm water, earths rotation and the pressures in the atmosphere between the polar jet and median jet.

The speed and size of the polar low directly affects the polar jets size and speed. The temperature imbalance between the two boundary areas is what causes the waves to form. The pressures above land near the ocean create the funnel giving them directional form. They oscillate because of earths rotation, day time heating and the moons pull. They are extremely complex and are easily disrupted. GCM's fail to create these and can not predict them as is shown with our current El NAda happening.. The models fail at every turn.

I will suffice it to say I disagree with the modeling they have done and the inputs used. They are missing many critical factors because they can not quantify water vapor and humidity change on the scale required.. Is the wave truly pole ward propagation or is it the overlapping cold/warm convection? The trade winds generally flow in reverse of earths rotation. It is when they shift into the reverse rotation flow that Rossby waves occur. As this year we have had little trade wind flow any generated Rossby waves will be very weak as the temperature imbalance is high at the boundary. In both hemispheres the boundary imbalance is very high as shown by our lack of tropical storms. (The wind shear tears them apart due to the imbalance.)

They make assumptions of correlation equaling causation.

In science I have the right to disagree. In this case I disagree.

OK, you disagree. She has a Phd in Meteorology. You have what?

Thus far every thing you have posted shows an immense ignorance of what the Rossby waves are, and the cause of their elongation and slower rate of movement.

 

[mamooth]

I could say a good way to predict weather is look at the Farmer's Almanac, and assume the opposite will happen. But that's not correct. The FA can't even be consistent about being wrong. For example, let's look at the FA's actual documented predictions for last year.

Long-Range Weather Forecast 2014 United States and Canada

At my house in Indiana, the FA predicted "Mild and dry". It was very cold and very snowy. So, that was a complete flub by the FA.

Looking across the USA, the FA had lots of flubs. It got about half right and half wrong. That is, coin flipping would have done as well.

The funny part is how all the deniers fell for the wildly incorrect claims about how "The FA called it perfectly!". The concept of fact-checking simply never occurred to them. After all, if they fact-checked, they wouldn't be deniers.

 

[rdean]

Evidence the earth is only 6,000 years old and vaccines cause autism.

Republicans and science. What a hoot.

 

[rdean]

I could say a good way to predict weather is look at the Farmer's Almanac, and assume the opposite will happen. But that's not correct. The FA can't even be consistent about being wrong. For example, let's look at the FA's actual documented predictions for last year.

Long-Range Weather Forecast 2014 United States and Canada

At my house in Indiana, the FA predicted "Mild and dry". It was very cold and very snowy. So, that was a complete flub by the FA.

Looking across the USA, the FA had lots of flubs. It got about half right and half wrong. That is, coin flipping would have done as well.

The funny part is how all the deniers fell for the wildly incorrect claims about how "The FA called it perfectly!". The concept of fact-checking simply never occurred to them. After all, if they fact-checked, they wouldn't be deniers.

I thought the south west was having a terrible drought?

 

[mamooth]

Good catch, that's a prime flub. Last winter was very dry in California, while the FA predicted "wet".

New Mexico and Texas are getting some rain now, from the remnants of a Pacific hurricane. SoCal, still nothing. Maybe some rain headed for the SF Bay area. Maybe.

 

[jc456]

I could say a good way to predict weather is look at the Farmer's Almanac, and assume the opposite will happen. But that's not correct. The FA can't even be consistent about being wrong. For example, let's look at the FA's actual documented predictions for last year.

Long-Range Weather Forecast 2014 United States and Canada

At my house in Indiana, the FA predicted "Mild and dry". It was very cold and very snowy. So, that was a complete flub by the FA.

Looking across the USA, the FA had lots of flubs. It got about half right and half wrong. That is, coin flipping would have done as well.

The funny part is how all the deniers fell for the wildly incorrect claims about how "The FA called it perfectly!". The concept of fact-checking simply never occurred to them. After all, if they fact-checked, they wouldn't be deniers.

Funny I opened the link you provided and the almanac stated:

United States Winter 2013 to 2014:
Frigid Winter With Bitter Cold and Heavy Snow
Brrrrr! It looks like global warming will soon be taking a vacation to make room for Old Man Winter. This frosty forecast comes courtesy of The 2014 Old Farmer’s Almanac, available in digital or print on our Web site now—or, in your local store!
According to the newest edition of North America’s oldest continuously published periodical, a decline in solar activity combined with ocean-atmosphere patterns in the Pacific and Atlantic will result in below-normal temperatures and above-normal snowfall during most of the winter across much of the United States.
“This winter is shaping up to be a rough one,” says Janice Stillman, editor of The Old Farmer’s Almanac. “Sweaters and snow shovels should be unpacked early and kept close by throughout the season. The good news is that the extra precipitation—which will fall as rain or snow depending where you are—will help with any drought issues left over from the summer.”