Dow on way to 7000.

Discussion in 'Stock Market' started by Neubarth, Dec 1, 2008.

  1. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    Folks, the economic condition indicators are the worse that I have seen in my 61 years of life. I would like to be an optimist, but I gave up on that last week. We are in for some very bad times ahead.

    By the summer, we might see riots in our major cities. I am not promising this, but I am afraid of it.

    Price to Earnings ratios might return to what they were in the Fifties and Sixties. If so, DOW 5500 could be a reality. If people are afraid to invest money in stocks, that is where the market will head. Millions of people who thought that they were going to retire in luxury are going to have to reaccess their situation. Meanwhile, going to cash might be a very wise decision. I am totally in Treasury bonds with a locked in 3% for the next year. I am OK with that.
     
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    Last edited: Dec 1, 2008
  2. Gord
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    Gord Active Member

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    Why would you settle for 3% bonds when you could make 64% by shorting the Dow if you are so confident in your prognostication?
     
  3. Neubarth
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    Neubarth At the Ballpark July 30th

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    My 401K (IRA) does not allow for shorting. I can invest in Mutual Funds or Treasuries. I certainly can wish that I could invest in accordance with my convictions, but that is not to be. Probably for the better. Unlike many people who post on Message boards I do not claim to be a genius when it comes to investing. That said, it is best that I live with the restrictions that limit excess in manipulation.

    The fact that I was in treasuries for all of this downturn was accidental. Certainly not a stroke of genius. I put all of my funds in Treasuries because two years ago I felt uneasy about the strong increase in the Mutual Funds. I put everything into Bonds and Notes and lost out on the last 4% of rise in the market, but I did get 4 - 5% interest on the Bonds and Notes, so that was a wash. Once I realized that my investment was even with the DOW, I jsut decided to stay with the interest bearing account, and sure have been glad that I did. I was just lucky to be where I was when the sheet finally hit the fan.

    Perhaps I should stop using my family name and just go by the name of "Lucky, but not a genius."?
     
  4. Paulie
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    Paulie Platinum Member

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    You danced around that like a stripper on a pole. Your 401k isn't the only means you have of investing. You're telling us you don't have your own trading account, and can't take your own position in DXD?
     
  5. FireGod
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    FireGod Reputation *****

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    The question is how many more are like this:

    Sandra Schweitzer, a teachers' assistant from Long Island, however, was among the few exceptions.

    "This year, we've decided to just go for broke. Yeah, the economy might be in bad shape, and times might be tight, but putting another four or five hundred dollars to the debt we already owe isn't going to make that much of a difference," she said. "Our New Year's resolution is to get in better shape financially, eat in more, watch what we spend. But, until January 1, we're not going to worry about it."

    From a yahoo news site about Black Friday.
     
  6. Gord
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    Gord Active Member

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    Thanks for the clarification. I was just curious because many on message boards like to portray themselves as in the know, but when challenged haven't actually put their money where their mouth is. I thought this might be the case here.

    (For the sake of disclosure I daytrade long and short, and could care less which way the market moves. Although for the benefit of everyone I hope it goes up.)
     

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