Do the Polls Show that the Election is Over and Obama Will be Reelected?

[beretta304]

"The polls don’t look that great for Romney at this time. A couple of polls have Obama up five points. I don’t understand how President Obama’s approval rating is around 42 percent and yet 49 percent of voters say they’re going to vote for him again."

I suspect that there are people who disapprove of Obama and Romney and won’t vote for anybody in November. Some are disenchanted Democrats and Republicans. Of course, there are the Libertarians, followers of Ron Paul, and Constitution Party supporters who most likely did not vote in 2008 so their non-votes don’t mean much since they’ve already been factored in. Or is it out?

I got an email today from someone who’s going to vote for the Constitution Party candidate. Here’s what he wrote:


“I say no to the ‘lesser of two evils.’ I am voting for the Constitution Party and only the Constitution Party. Calling me an idiot does not intimidate me. Romney/Obama [are] all the same to me. Remember the Republican Party was a third party when they put a man in the White House. Let Obama win. Let Romney win. Either way America loses.”



What has the Constitution Party done since it was established in 1991? No seats in the Senate or House of Representatives. No governorships. No state upper houses. No state lower houses. If a third party is going ot be successful, it would help if it had some successes.Polls can be used to dampen voter enthusiasm. People see a poll showing Obama ahead when the economy is in the toilet and wonder how it’s possible. Why bother voting since the election is over . . . in September!

I wouldn’t be surprised that the poll numbers are being screwed with. There’s just no way to prove it.

A little history might help showing how polls at this point in an election are not necessarily indicators of who’s going to win in November.

Gallup shows that Obama is leading Mitt Romney by 4 points after the DNC Convention. Consider that in the 1980 election Gallup showed that Jimmy Carter was leading Ronald Reagan by 4 points in mid September. In October Carter was up 8 by points. Going into the last two weeks before the election, Gallup published a poll showing Carter up six among likely voters.

Ronald Reagan ended up winning by 9 points and taking 44 states in the electoral count — 489 to 49. Third party candidate John Anderson got 6.6% of the vote and made no impact on the final results.

The most lopsided polling spread after the Democratic National Convention has to be the 1988 election between George H. W. Bush and Michael Dukakis. A Gallup Poll had Dukakis up by 17 percent — 55 to 38 percent. A four-point difference is nearly a tie in statistical analysis of polls. It’s within the margin of error. Breitbart reports that The New York Times stated the following from July 26, 1988:

“This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win.

In the end, the enthusiasm factor will determine who wins. Which party will crawl over broken glass to vote? Let’s hope it’s the Republicans.



Read more: Do the Polls Show that the Election is Over and Obama Will be Reelected?

 

[Greenbeard]

I don’t understand how President Obama’s approval rating is around 42 percent and yet 49 percent of voters say they’re going to vote for him again.

Maybe it has something to do with his job approval being at 49.4 in the polling average.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

 

[beretta304]

I don’t understand how President Obama’s approval rating is around 42 percent and yet 49 percent of voters say they’re going to vote for him again.

Maybe it has something to do with his job approval being at 49.4 in the polling average.

RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Obama Job Approval

I'll be sure to pass that along to the author for correction.

 

[Mr. H.]

Dewey or don't he? We'll see in November.

 

[copsnrobbers]

I'd like nothing better than to see Obama defeated and pushed away for good.
I'm sick of him and hearing his fucking name.

I think I finally know what Hate means.

 

[Greenbeard]

I'd like nothing better than to see Obama defeated and pushed away for good.
I'm sick of him and hearing his fucking name.

I think I finally know what Hate means.

Seek help.

 

[Politico]

I don’t understand how President Obama’s approval rating is around 42 percent and yet 49 percent of voters say they’re going to vote for him again.

Because of the 42% who voted in the poll on his approval rating only 25% of the 57% of the ones....zzzzzzzzzzzzzz............

 

[oreo]

"The polls don’t look that great for Romney at this time. A couple of polls have Obama up five points. I don’t understand how President Obama’s approval rating is around 42 percent and yet 49 percent of voters say they’re going to vote for him again."

I suspect that there are people who disapprove of Obama and Romney and won’t vote for anybody in November. Some are disenchanted Democrats and Republicans. Of course, there are the Libertarians, followers of Ron Paul, and Constitution Party supporters who most likely did not vote in 2008 so their non-votes don’t mean much since they’ve already been factored in. Or is it out?

I got an email today from someone who’s going to vote for the Constitution Party candidate. Here’s what he wrote:


“I say no to the ‘lesser of two evils.’ I am voting for the Constitution Party and only the Constitution Party. Calling me an idiot does not intimidate me. Romney/Obama [are] all the same to me. Remember the Republican Party was a third party when they put a man in the White House. Let Obama win. Let Romney win. Either way America loses.”



What has the Constitution Party done since it was established in 1991? No seats in the Senate or House of Representatives. No governorships. No state upper houses. No state lower houses. If a third party is going ot be successful, it would help if it had some successes.Polls can be used to dampen voter enthusiasm. People see a poll showing Obama ahead when the economy is in the toilet and wonder how it’s possible. Why bother voting since the election is over . . . in September!

I wouldn’t be surprised that the poll numbers are being screwed with. There’s just no way to prove it.

A little history might help showing how polls at this point in an election are not necessarily indicators of who’s going to win in November.

Gallup shows that Obama is leading Mitt Romney by 4 points after the DNC Convention. Consider that in the 1980 election Gallup showed that Jimmy Carter was leading Ronald Reagan by 4 points in mid September. In October Carter was up 8 by points. Going into the last two weeks before the election, Gallup published a poll showing Carter up six among likely voters.

Ronald Reagan ended up winning by 9 points and taking 44 states in the electoral count — 489 to 49. Third party candidate John Anderson got 6.6% of the vote and made no impact on the final results.

The most lopsided polling spread after the Democratic National Convention has to be the 1988 election between George H. W. Bush and Michael Dukakis. A Gallup Poll had Dukakis up by 17 percent — 55 to 38 percent. A four-point difference is nearly a tie in statistical analysis of polls. It’s within the margin of error. Breitbart reports that The New York Times stated the following from July 26, 1988:

“This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win.

In the end, the enthusiasm factor will determine who wins. Which party will crawl over broken glass to vote? Let’s hope it’s the Republicans.



Read more: Do the Polls Show that the Election is Over and Obama Will be Reelected?

I would ignore the National polling data right now. At this time--Carter had a 10 point lead over Reagan. What the national polls are doing is over polling democrats to republicans--in one instance 47% democrats compared to 32% republicans just to show the race tied. A recent CNN poll didn't factor in independents who Romney is leading with by 14 points right now. Then they will poll any Joe on the street--then move to registered voters--and then to likely voters--to swing a poll the way they want it to go. Also the manner in which they ask a question can give two different answers. For instance: Do you like Obama--YES--note they didn't ask if the person planned on voting for him--which more than likely would be NO. They do this for a good reason-1. If they showed a complete blow-out of Obama right now--no one would send another dime to his campaign--and even more importantly people would stop looking at the polls and their advertisers would move elsewhere.

Recent CNN poll showing Obama up by 6 points.

CNN manipulated their polling

CNN is grabbing political headlines tonight with the release of its latest poll. It shows Obama surging to a 6-point lead over Romney, 52-46, among likely. Before the start of the Democrat convention, the candidates had been tied in the poll. Since it purportedly confirms a narrative the media is trying to build, i.e. that Obama is starting to pull away with the race, it is getting wide coverage. However, there are a couple of strange things within the poll that cast doubt on its veracity. And, at least one concern warrants a response from CNN.First, this being a media poll, it has an obvious skew towards Democrats. The partisan breakdown is (D/R/I) 50/45/5. It perhaps isn’t surprising that Obama is leading a D+5 poll by 6 points. Throughout the campaign season, Obama’s margin usually is very close to the partisan skew in the sample. It is surprising, though, that Independents make up only 5% of the sample. Tellingly, Romney leads this group by 14 points.

CNN manipulated their polling | Education News

Again they did the same thing in the Carter/Reagan race--showing the race very tight up until 3 days before the election--with Carter often leading Reagan in the national polls. Here is the result of that election.

 

[Greenbeard]

I would ignore the National polling data right now. At this time--Carter had a 10 point lead over Reagan.

Reagan didn't trail throughout the entire campaign. He actually showed some ability to garner the support he would need to win (even if the race fluctuated with time).

Romney never has.

 

[Conservadude]

"The polls don’t look that great for Romney at this time. A couple of polls have Obama up five points. I don’t understand how President Obama’s approval rating is around 42 percent and yet 49 percent of voters say they’re going to vote for him again."

I suspect that there are people who disapprove of Obama and Romney and won’t vote for anybody in November. Some are disenchanted Democrats and Republicans. Of course, there are the Libertarians, followers of Ron Paul, and Constitution Party supporters who most likely did not vote in 2008 so their non-votes don’t mean much since they’ve already been factored in. Or is it out?

I got an email today from someone who’s going to vote for the Constitution Party candidate. Here’s what he wrote:


“I say no to the ‘lesser of two evils.’ I am voting for the Constitution Party and only the Constitution Party. Calling me an idiot does not intimidate me. Romney/Obama [are] all the same to me. Remember the Republican Party was a third party when they put a man in the White House. Let Obama win. Let Romney win. Either way America loses.”



What has the Constitution Party done since it was established in 1991? No seats in the Senate or House of Representatives. No governorships. No state upper houses. No state lower houses. If a third party is going ot be successful, it would help if it had some successes.Polls can be used to dampen voter enthusiasm. People see a poll showing Obama ahead when the economy is in the toilet and wonder how it’s possible. Why bother voting since the election is over . . . in September!

I wouldn’t be surprised that the poll numbers are being screwed with. There’s just no way to prove it.

A little history might help showing how polls at this point in an election are not necessarily indicators of who’s going to win in November.

Gallup shows that Obama is leading Mitt Romney by 4 points after the DNC Convention. Consider that in the 1980 election Gallup showed that Jimmy Carter was leading Ronald Reagan by 4 points in mid September. In October Carter was up 8 by points. Going into the last two weeks before the election, Gallup published a poll showing Carter up six among likely voters.

Ronald Reagan ended up winning by 9 points and taking 44 states in the electoral count — 489 to 49. Third party candidate John Anderson got 6.6% of the vote and made no impact on the final results.

The most lopsided polling spread after the Democratic National Convention has to be the 1988 election between George H. W. Bush and Michael Dukakis. A Gallup Poll had Dukakis up by 17 percent — 55 to 38 percent. A four-point difference is nearly a tie in statistical analysis of polls. It’s within the margin of error. Breitbart reports that The New York Times stated the following from July 26, 1988:

“This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win.

In the end, the enthusiasm factor will determine who wins. Which party will crawl over broken glass to vote? Let’s hope it’s the Republicans.



Read more: Do the Polls Show that the Election is Over and Obama Will be Reelected?

I would ignore the National polling data right now. At this time--Carter had a 10 point lead over Reagan. What the national polls are doing is over polling democrats to republicans--in one instance 47% democrats compared to 32% republicans just to show the race tied. A recent CNN poll didn't factor in independents who Romney is leading with by 14 points right now. Then they will poll any Joe on the street--then move to registered voters--and then to likely voters--to swing a poll the way they want it to go. Also the manner in which they ask a question can give two different answers. For instance: Do you like Obama--YES--note they didn't ask if the person planned on voting for him--which more than likely would be NO. They do this for a good reason-1. If they showed a complete blow-out of Obama right now--no one would send another dime to his campaign--and even more importantly people would stop looking at the polls and their advertisers would move elsewhere.

Recent CNN poll showing Obama up by 6 points.

CNN manipulated their polling

CNN is grabbing political headlines tonight with the release of its latest poll. It shows Obama surging to a 6-point lead over Romney, 52-46, among likely. Before the start of the Democrat convention, the candidates had been tied in the poll. Since it purportedly confirms a narrative the media is trying to build, i.e. that Obama is starting to pull away with the race, it is getting wide coverage. However, there are a couple of strange things within the poll that cast doubt on its veracity. And, at least one concern warrants a response from CNN.First, this being a media poll, it has an obvious skew towards Democrats. The partisan breakdown is (D/R/I) 50/45/5. It perhaps isn’t surprising that Obama is leading a D+5 poll by 6 points. Throughout the campaign season, Obama’s margin usually is very close to the partisan skew in the sample. It is surprising, though, that Independents make up only 5% of the sample. Tellingly, Romney leads this group by 14 points.

CNN manipulated their polling | Education News

Again they did the same thing in the Carter/Reagan race--showing the race very tight up until 3 days before the election--with Carter often leading Reagan in the national polls. Here is the result of that election.

^.. This.

I'm knocking on doors and making calls.. Are you?

 

[oreo]

I would ignore the National polling data right now. At this time--Carter had a 10 point lead over Reagan.

Reagan didn't trail throughout the entire campaign. He actually showed some ability to garner the support he would need to win (even if the race fluctuated with time).

Romney never has.

No if you look at the internal polling data which both campaigns pay attention too--Obama is in big trouble.

1. Independents decide the elections in this country today--and Romney is leading among them by 14 points.
2. Obama is NOT going to get the same amount of hispanics and blacks that voted for him in 2008.
3. Women look to be moving into the Romney column. Apparently they're starting to realize that 12% real unemployment and 16 trillion in red ink are more important that who's going to pay for someone else's birth control contraceptives.
4. It looks like Obama is losing the youth vote.
5. Then you have the enthusiasm gap--there is much more enthusiasm in this country to rid ourselves of Obama--than there is to keep him there. Currently--Obama has a 60+% disapproval rating on the way he has managed the economy and deficit.
Obama Has Problems With Independent Voters - ABC News
New York Times: Obama Losing the Youth Vote to Mitt Romney | Growing Up in a Recession | TheBlaze.com
Gallup: Obama disapproval in the 60s on the economy, budget deficit « Hot Air

THE Internal polling data is showing a landslide victory for Romney. The university of Colorado did an "historic" study on elections and have already called this race for Romney--and they have been right since 1980.
http://www.dailycamera.com/ci_21372873/cu-boulder-study-predicts-win-mitt-romney-general

 

[auditor0007]

"The polls don’t look that great for Romney at this time. A couple of polls have Obama up five points. I don’t understand how President Obama’s approval rating is around 42 percent and yet 49 percent of voters say they’re going to vote for him again."

I suspect that there are people who disapprove of Obama and Romney and won’t vote for anybody in November. Some are disenchanted Democrats and Republicans. Of course, there are the Libertarians, followers of Ron Paul, and Constitution Party supporters who most likely did not vote in 2008 so their non-votes don’t mean much since they’ve already been factored in. Or is it out?

I got an email today from someone who’s going to vote for the Constitution Party candidate. Here’s what he wrote:


“I say no to the ‘lesser of two evils.’ I am voting for the Constitution Party and only the Constitution Party. Calling me an idiot does not intimidate me. Romney/Obama [are] all the same to me. Remember the Republican Party was a third party when they put a man in the White House. Let Obama win. Let Romney win. Either way America loses.”



What has the Constitution Party done since it was established in 1991? No seats in the Senate or House of Representatives. No governorships. No state upper houses. No state lower houses. If a third party is going ot be successful, it would help if it had some successes.Polls can be used to dampen voter enthusiasm. People see a poll showing Obama ahead when the economy is in the toilet and wonder how it’s possible. Why bother voting since the election is over . . . in September!

I wouldn’t be surprised that the poll numbers are being screwed with. There’s just no way to prove it.

A little history might help showing how polls at this point in an election are not necessarily indicators of who’s going to win in November.

Gallup shows that Obama is leading Mitt Romney by 4 points after the DNC Convention. Consider that in the 1980 election Gallup showed that Jimmy Carter was leading Ronald Reagan by 4 points in mid September. In October Carter was up 8 by points. Going into the last two weeks before the election, Gallup published a poll showing Carter up six among likely voters.

Ronald Reagan ended up winning by 9 points and taking 44 states in the electoral count — 489 to 49. Third party candidate John Anderson got 6.6% of the vote and made no impact on the final results.

The most lopsided polling spread after the Democratic National Convention has to be the 1988 election between George H. W. Bush and Michael Dukakis. A Gallup Poll had Dukakis up by 17 percent — 55 to 38 percent. A four-point difference is nearly a tie in statistical analysis of polls. It’s within the margin of error. Breitbart reports that The New York Times stated the following from July 26, 1988:

“This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win.

In the end, the enthusiasm factor will determine who wins. Which party will crawl over broken glass to vote? Let’s hope it’s the Republicans.



Read more: Do the Polls Show that the Election is Over and Obama Will be Reelected?

I didn't even bother reading your long post, but no, the election is not over. It is just better to be Obama right now than Romney as there is much more going in Obama's favor. That doesn't mean he still can't lose.

 

[auditor0007]

"The polls don’t look that great for Romney at this time. A couple of polls have Obama up five points. I don’t understand how President Obama’s approval rating is around 42 percent and yet 49 percent of voters say they’re going to vote for him again."

I suspect that there are people who disapprove of Obama and Romney and won’t vote for anybody in November. Some are disenchanted Democrats and Republicans. Of course, there are the Libertarians, followers of Ron Paul, and Constitution Party supporters who most likely did not vote in 2008 so their non-votes don’t mean much since they’ve already been factored in. Or is it out?

I got an email today from someone who’s going to vote for the Constitution Party candidate. Here’s what he wrote:


“I say no to the ‘lesser of two evils.’ I am voting for the Constitution Party and only the Constitution Party. Calling me an idiot does not intimidate me. Romney/Obama [are] all the same to me. Remember the Republican Party was a third party when they put a man in the White House. Let Obama win. Let Romney win. Either way America loses.”



What has the Constitution Party done since it was established in 1991? No seats in the Senate or House of Representatives. No governorships. No state upper houses. No state lower houses. If a third party is going ot be successful, it would help if it had some successes.Polls can be used to dampen voter enthusiasm. People see a poll showing Obama ahead when the economy is in the toilet and wonder how it’s possible. Why bother voting since the election is over . . . in September!

I wouldn’t be surprised that the poll numbers are being screwed with. There’s just no way to prove it.

A little history might help showing how polls at this point in an election are not necessarily indicators of who’s going to win in November.

Gallup shows that Obama is leading Mitt Romney by 4 points after the DNC Convention. Consider that in the 1980 election Gallup showed that Jimmy Carter was leading Ronald Reagan by 4 points in mid September. In October Carter was up 8 by points. Going into the last two weeks before the election, Gallup published a poll showing Carter up six among likely voters.

Ronald Reagan ended up winning by 9 points and taking 44 states in the electoral count — 489 to 49. Third party candidate John Anderson got 6.6% of the vote and made no impact on the final results.

The most lopsided polling spread after the Democratic National Convention has to be the 1988 election between George H. W. Bush and Michael Dukakis. A Gallup Poll had Dukakis up by 17 percent — 55 to 38 percent. A four-point difference is nearly a tie in statistical analysis of polls. It’s within the margin of error. Breitbart reports that The New York Times stated the following from July 26, 1988:

“This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win.

In the end, the enthusiasm factor will determine who wins. Which party will crawl over broken glass to vote? Let’s hope it’s the Republicans.



Read more: Do the Polls Show that the Election is Over and Obama Will be Reelected?

I would ignore the National polling data right now. At this time--Carter had a 10 point lead over Reagan. What the national polls are doing is over polling democrats to republicans--in one instance 47% democrats compared to 32% republicans just to show the race tied. A recent CNN poll didn't factor in independents who Romney is leading with by 14 points right now. Then they will poll any Joe on the street--then move to registered voters--and then to likely voters--to swing a poll the way they want it to go. Also the manner in which they ask a question can give two different answers. For instance: Do you like Obama--YES--note they didn't ask if the person planned on voting for him--which more than likely would be NO. They do this for a good reason-1. If they showed a complete blow-out of Obama right now--no one would send another dime to his campaign--and even more importantly people would stop looking at the polls and their advertisers would move elsewhere.

Recent CNN poll showing Obama up by 6 points.

CNN manipulated their polling

CNN is grabbing political headlines tonight with the release of its latest poll. It shows Obama surging to a 6-point lead over Romney, 52-46, among likely. Before the start of the Democrat convention, the candidates had been tied in the poll. Since it purportedly confirms a narrative the media is trying to build, i.e. that Obama is starting to pull away with the race, it is getting wide coverage. However, there are a couple of strange things within the poll that cast doubt on its veracity. And, at least one concern warrants a response from CNN.First, this being a media poll, it has an obvious skew towards Democrats. The partisan breakdown is (D/R/I) 50/45/5. It perhaps isn’t surprising that Obama is leading a D+5 poll by 6 points. Throughout the campaign season, Obama’s margin usually is very close to the partisan skew in the sample. It is surprising, though, that Independents make up only 5% of the sample. Tellingly, Romney leads this group by 14 points.

CNN manipulated their polling | Education News

Again they did the same thing in the Carter/Reagan race--showing the race very tight up until 3 days before the election--with Carter often leading Reagan in the national polls. Here is the result of that election.

So you are also ignoring Rasmussen? Okay.

 

[Greenbeard]

Meanwhile, on Planet Earth, Obama has hit 50 this week in Gallup, in CNN, even in Rasmussen. And he's brushing 50% in polls like ABC news. He's demonstrating his upside.

When has Romney even hinted at his? You can wait all you want for the imaginary turning point his camp keeps pointing to (like the 11 point bounce they expected out of their convention; actual bounce? zero--at best).

 

[oreo]

"The polls don’t look that great for Romney at this time. A couple of polls have Obama up five points. I don’t understand how President Obama’s approval rating is around 42 percent and yet 49 percent of voters say they’re going to vote for him again."

I suspect that there are people who disapprove of Obama and Romney and won’t vote for anybody in November. Some are disenchanted Democrats and Republicans. Of course, there are the Libertarians, followers of Ron Paul, and Constitution Party supporters who most likely did not vote in 2008 so their non-votes don’t mean much since they’ve already been factored in. Or is it out?

I got an email today from someone who’s going to vote for the Constitution Party candidate. Here’s what he wrote:


“I say no to the ‘lesser of two evils.’ I am voting for the Constitution Party and only the Constitution Party. Calling me an idiot does not intimidate me. Romney/Obama [are] all the same to me. Remember the Republican Party was a third party when they put a man in the White House. Let Obama win. Let Romney win. Either way America loses.”



What has the Constitution Party done since it was established in 1991? No seats in the Senate or House of Representatives. No governorships. No state upper houses. No state lower houses. If a third party is going ot be successful, it would help if it had some successes.Polls can be used to dampen voter enthusiasm. People see a poll showing Obama ahead when the economy is in the toilet and wonder how it’s possible. Why bother voting since the election is over . . . in September!

I wouldn’t be surprised that the poll numbers are being screwed with. There’s just no way to prove it.

A little history might help showing how polls at this point in an election are not necessarily indicators of who’s going to win in November.

Gallup shows that Obama is leading Mitt Romney by 4 points after the DNC Convention. Consider that in the 1980 election Gallup showed that Jimmy Carter was leading Ronald Reagan by 4 points in mid September. In October Carter was up 8 by points. Going into the last two weeks before the election, Gallup published a poll showing Carter up six among likely voters.

Ronald Reagan ended up winning by 9 points and taking 44 states in the electoral count — 489 to 49. Third party candidate John Anderson got 6.6% of the vote and made no impact on the final results.

The most lopsided polling spread after the Democratic National Convention has to be the 1988 election between George H. W. Bush and Michael Dukakis. A Gallup Poll had Dukakis up by 17 percent — 55 to 38 percent. A four-point difference is nearly a tie in statistical analysis of polls. It’s within the margin of error. Breitbart reports that The New York Times stated the following from July 26, 1988:

“This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win.

In the end, the enthusiasm factor will determine who wins. Which party will crawl over broken glass to vote? Let’s hope it’s the Republicans.



Read more: Do the Polls Show that the Election is Over and Obama Will be Reelected?

I didn't even bother reading your long post, but no, the election is not over. It is just better to be Obama right now than Romney as there is much more going in Obama's favor. That doesn't mean he still can't lose.

There is nothing to be concerned about--the National media polls are being manipulated.

CNN is grabbing political headlines tonight with the release of its latest poll. It shows Obama surging to a 6-point lead over Romney, 52-46, among likely. Before the start of the Democrat convention, the candidates had been tied in the poll. Since it purportedly confirms a narrative the media is trying to build, i.e. that Obama is starting to pull away with the race, it is getting wide coverage. However, there are a couple of strange things within the poll that cast doubt on its veracity. And, at least one concern warrants a response from CNN.

First, this being a media poll, it has an obvious skew towards Democrats. The partisan breakdown is (D/R/I) 50/45/5. It perhaps isn’t surprising that Obama is leading a D+5 poll by 6 points. Throughout the campaign season, Obama’s margin usually is very close to the partisan skew in the sample. It is surprising, though, that Independents make up only 5% of the sample. Tellingly, Romney leads this group by 14 points.

CNN manipulated their polling | Education News

It's the INTERNAL polling data you should be paying attention to right now (because that what the campaigns pay attention too) that I just posted and gave links too. Obama sucks in the internal polling data. And judging from the data--we may see something that resembles Custer's Last Stand for Obama and democrats in November.

 

[NYcarbineer]

"The polls don’t look that great for Romney at this time. A couple of polls have Obama up five points. I don’t understand how President Obama’s approval rating is around 42 percent and yet 49 percent of voters say they’re going to vote for him again."

I suspect that there are people who disapprove of Obama and Romney and won’t vote for anybody in November. Some are disenchanted Democrats and Republicans. Of course, there are the Libertarians, followers of Ron Paul, and Constitution Party supporters who most likely did not vote in 2008 so their non-votes don’t mean much since they’ve already been factored in. Or is it out?

I got an email today from someone who’s going to vote for the Constitution Party candidate. Here’s what he wrote:


“I say no to the ‘lesser of two evils.’ I am voting for the Constitution Party and only the Constitution Party. Calling me an idiot does not intimidate me. Romney/Obama [are] all the same to me. Remember the Republican Party was a third party when they put a man in the White House. Let Obama win. Let Romney win. Either way America loses.”



What has the Constitution Party done since it was established in 1991? No seats in the Senate or House of Representatives. No governorships. No state upper houses. No state lower houses. If a third party is going ot be successful, it would help if it had some successes.Polls can be used to dampen voter enthusiasm. People see a poll showing Obama ahead when the economy is in the toilet and wonder how it’s possible. Why bother voting since the election is over . . . in September!

I wouldn’t be surprised that the poll numbers are being screwed with. There’s just no way to prove it.

A little history might help showing how polls at this point in an election are not necessarily indicators of who’s going to win in November.

Gallup shows that Obama is leading Mitt Romney by 4 points after the DNC Convention. Consider that in the 1980 election Gallup showed that Jimmy Carter was leading Ronald Reagan by 4 points in mid September. In October Carter was up 8 by points. Going into the last two weeks before the election, Gallup published a poll showing Carter up six among likely voters.

Ronald Reagan ended up winning by 9 points and taking 44 states in the electoral count — 489 to 49. Third party candidate John Anderson got 6.6% of the vote and made no impact on the final results.

The most lopsided polling spread after the Democratic National Convention has to be the 1988 election between George H. W. Bush and Michael Dukakis. A Gallup Poll had Dukakis up by 17 percent — 55 to 38 percent. A four-point difference is nearly a tie in statistical analysis of polls. It’s within the margin of error. Breitbart reports that The New York Times stated the following from July 26, 1988:

“This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win.

In the end, the enthusiasm factor will determine who wins. Which party will crawl over broken glass to vote? Let’s hope it’s the Republicans.



Read more: Do the Polls Show that the Election is Over and Obama Will be Reelected?

I would ignore the National polling data right now. At this time--Carter had a 10 point lead over Reagan. What the national polls are doing is over polling democrats to republicans--in one instance 47% democrats compared to 32% republicans just to show the race tied. A recent CNN poll didn't factor in independents who Romney is leading with by 14 points right now. Then they will poll any Joe on the street--then move to registered voters--and then to likely voters--to swing a poll the way they want it to go. Also the manner in which they ask a question can give two different answers. For instance: Do you like Obama--YES--note they didn't ask if the person planned on voting for him--which more than likely would be NO. They do this for a good reason-1. If they showed a complete blow-out of Obama right now--no one would send another dime to his campaign--and even more importantly people would stop looking at the polls and their advertisers would move elsewhere.

Recent CNN poll showing Obama up by 6 points.

CNN manipulated their polling

CNN is grabbing political headlines tonight with the release of its latest poll. It shows Obama surging to a 6-point lead over Romney, 52-46, among likely. Before the start of the Democrat convention, the candidates had been tied in the poll. Since it purportedly confirms a narrative the media is trying to build, i.e. that Obama is starting to pull away with the race, it is getting wide coverage. However, there are a couple of strange things within the poll that cast doubt on its veracity. And, at least one concern warrants a response from CNN.First, this being a media poll, it has an obvious skew towards Democrats. The partisan breakdown is (D/R/I) 50/45/5. It perhaps isn’t surprising that Obama is leading a D+5 poll by 6 points. Throughout the campaign season, Obama’s margin usually is very close to the partisan skew in the sample. It is surprising, though, that Independents make up only 5% of the sample. Tellingly, Romney leads this group by 14 points.

CNN manipulated their polling | Education News

Again they did the same thing in the Carter/Reagan race--showing the race very tight up until 3 days before the election--with Carter often leading Reagan in the national polls. Here is the result of that election.

Carter didn't win Georgia?

 

[blackhawk]

"The polls don’t look that great for Romney at this time. A couple of polls have Obama up five points. I don’t understand how President Obama’s approval rating is around 42 percent and yet 49 percent of voters say they’re going to vote for him again."

I suspect that there are people who disapprove of Obama and Romney and won’t vote for anybody in November. Some are disenchanted Democrats and Republicans. Of course, there are the Libertarians, followers of Ron Paul, and Constitution Party supporters who most likely did not vote in 2008 so their non-votes don’t mean much since they’ve already been factored in. Or is it out?

I got an email today from someone who’s going to vote for the Constitution Party candidate. Here’s what he wrote:


“I say no to the ‘lesser of two evils.’ I am voting for the Constitution Party and only the Constitution Party. Calling me an idiot does not intimidate me. Romney/Obama [are] all the same to me. Remember the Republican Party was a third party when they put a man in the White House. Let Obama win. Let Romney win. Either way America loses.”



What has the Constitution Party done since it was established in 1991? No seats in the Senate or House of Representatives. No governorships. No state upper houses. No state lower houses. If a third party is going ot be successful, it would help if it had some successes.Polls can be used to dampen voter enthusiasm. People see a poll showing Obama ahead when the economy is in the toilet and wonder how it’s possible. Why bother voting since the election is over . . . in September!

I wouldn’t be surprised that the poll numbers are being screwed with. There’s just no way to prove it.

A little history might help showing how polls at this point in an election are not necessarily indicators of who’s going to win in November.

Gallup shows that Obama is leading Mitt Romney by 4 points after the DNC Convention. Consider that in the 1980 election Gallup showed that Jimmy Carter was leading Ronald Reagan by 4 points in mid September. In October Carter was up 8 by points. Going into the last two weeks before the election, Gallup published a poll showing Carter up six among likely voters.

Ronald Reagan ended up winning by 9 points and taking 44 states in the electoral count — 489 to 49. Third party candidate John Anderson got 6.6% of the vote and made no impact on the final results.

The most lopsided polling spread after the Democratic National Convention has to be the 1988 election between George H. W. Bush and Michael Dukakis. A Gallup Poll had Dukakis up by 17 percent — 55 to 38 percent. A four-point difference is nearly a tie in statistical analysis of polls. It’s within the margin of error. Breitbart reports that The New York Times stated the following from July 26, 1988:

“This was among the findings of a national public opinion poll of 948 registered voters conducted late last week for Newsweek magazine by the Gallup Organization. The telephone interviews took place on July 21, which was the last night of the convention, and on the night after that.

Fifty-five percent of the 948 registered voters interviewed in the poll said they preferred to see Mr. Dukakis win the 1988 Presidential election, while 38 percent said they preferred to see Mr. Bush win.

In the end, the enthusiasm factor will determine who wins. Which party will crawl over broken glass to vote? Let’s hope it’s the Republicans.



Read more: Do the Polls Show that the Election is Over and Obama Will be Reelected?

It's a convention bounce and they don't last i suspect in another week or so the polls will tighten up again.

 

[copsnrobbers]

New ABC Polls show, Not so fast!
The debates will define there differences.
hey take a look at Chicago land.............. Socialist marching about. Fuck Them!

 

[Old Rocks]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

 

[blackhawk]

RealClearPolitics - Election 2012 - General Election: Romney vs. Obama

Obama +3.6 I believe it said 3.9 when I checked when I got in from work Today.