Obama will win in November, not because of much that happens on the campaign, but because of Demographics. Demographics are destiny in politics, really.
The advent of our current two parties really starts with the election of 1860, when the new Republican Party nominated Abraham Lincoln, and established the demographic model. The GOP was dominant in the cities and the North, the Democrats in the rural areas and the South. As a result, the Republicans won all but four of the elections that occurred between 1860 and 1928. The ones the Democrats won (1884, 1892, 1912 and 1916) they barely won by the skin of their teeth. The 13 the GOP won, they often won decisively, with few exceptions like 1876 and 1888.
The shift came with the Great Depression, and lots of urban folks re-identifying with the Democrats, who got right with the common man. Between 1932 and 1964, Republicans won only two elections. (1952 and 1956). IN that case, they won with a War Hero who pretty much conceded the Democrats were right on economic issues. They won the other 7 elections, often by lanslides.
The next shift came in 1968, when the White Middle Class saw their kids all turn into hippies, and shifted to the REpublicans. Once again, Republicans were dominant. They won 5 of the six elections between 1968 and 1988, usually by landslides. The Democrats had lost middle America by becoming the party of easy morals and weak defense. The only one they won was in 1976 (barely) and that was when an unelected incumbant pardoned the last guy who resigned in disgrace.
The last shift was in 1992. Ross Perot peeled off a large chunk of the middle class and they never really came back to the GOP. Minorities became a larger chunck of the electorate, making the GOP uncompetitive in certain states. In that time period, Democrats outright won three elections (1992, 1996 and 2008), and won the popular vote in a fourth. (2000) The only reason the GOP won the 2004 election was because the courts gave them a mulligan in 2000, there was a war going on (we never change presidents in the middle of a war) and even then, Bush only beat a weak John Kerry by 51-49.
The GOP has an uphill climb because it really has to change the Demographics. It has to convince working folks that they are not the party of the guy who lays you off, they have to win over minorities. (Keep in mind, McCain won the white vote in 2008, it was minorities that put Obama over the top.)
Romney is not the guy to do this.
The advent of our current two parties really starts with the election of 1860, when the new Republican Party nominated Abraham Lincoln, and established the demographic model. The GOP was dominant in the cities and the North, the Democrats in the rural areas and the South. As a result, the Republicans won all but four of the elections that occurred between 1860 and 1928. The ones the Democrats won (1884, 1892, 1912 and 1916) they barely won by the skin of their teeth. The 13 the GOP won, they often won decisively, with few exceptions like 1876 and 1888.
The shift came with the Great Depression, and lots of urban folks re-identifying with the Democrats, who got right with the common man. Between 1932 and 1964, Republicans won only two elections. (1952 and 1956). IN that case, they won with a War Hero who pretty much conceded the Democrats were right on economic issues. They won the other 7 elections, often by lanslides.
The next shift came in 1968, when the White Middle Class saw their kids all turn into hippies, and shifted to the REpublicans. Once again, Republicans were dominant. They won 5 of the six elections between 1968 and 1988, usually by landslides. The Democrats had lost middle America by becoming the party of easy morals and weak defense. The only one they won was in 1976 (barely) and that was when an unelected incumbant pardoned the last guy who resigned in disgrace.
The last shift was in 1992. Ross Perot peeled off a large chunk of the middle class and they never really came back to the GOP. Minorities became a larger chunck of the electorate, making the GOP uncompetitive in certain states. In that time period, Democrats outright won three elections (1992, 1996 and 2008), and won the popular vote in a fourth. (2000) The only reason the GOP won the 2004 election was because the courts gave them a mulligan in 2000, there was a war going on (we never change presidents in the middle of a war) and even then, Bush only beat a weak John Kerry by 51-49.
The GOP has an uphill climb because it really has to change the Demographics. It has to convince working folks that they are not the party of the guy who lays you off, they have to win over minorities. (Keep in mind, McCain won the white vote in 2008, it was minorities that put Obama over the top.)
Romney is not the guy to do this.
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