Demographics- Obama's Real Best Friend

Discussion in 'Politics' started by JoeB131, Mar 25, 2012.

  1. JoeB131
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    JoeB131 Diamond Member

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    Obama will win in November, not because of much that happens on the campaign, but because of Demographics. Demographics are destiny in politics, really.

    The advent of our current two parties really starts with the election of 1860, when the new Republican Party nominated Abraham Lincoln, and established the demographic model. The GOP was dominant in the cities and the North, the Democrats in the rural areas and the South. As a result, the Republicans won all but four of the elections that occurred between 1860 and 1928. The ones the Democrats won (1884, 1892, 1912 and 1916) they barely won by the skin of their teeth. The 13 the GOP won, they often won decisively, with few exceptions like 1876 and 1888.

    The shift came with the Great Depression, and lots of urban folks re-identifying with the Democrats, who got right with the common man. Between 1932 and 1964, Republicans won only two elections. (1952 and 1956). IN that case, they won with a War Hero who pretty much conceded the Democrats were right on economic issues. They won the other 7 elections, often by lanslides.

    The next shift came in 1968, when the White Middle Class saw their kids all turn into hippies, and shifted to the REpublicans. Once again, Republicans were dominant. They won 5 of the six elections between 1968 and 1988, usually by landslides. The Democrats had lost middle America by becoming the party of easy morals and weak defense. The only one they won was in 1976 (barely) and that was when an unelected incumbant pardoned the last guy who resigned in disgrace.

    The last shift was in 1992. Ross Perot peeled off a large chunk of the middle class and they never really came back to the GOP. Minorities became a larger chunck of the electorate, making the GOP uncompetitive in certain states. In that time period, Democrats outright won three elections (1992, 1996 and 2008), and won the popular vote in a fourth. (2000) The only reason the GOP won the 2004 election was because the courts gave them a mulligan in 2000, there was a war going on (we never change presidents in the middle of a war) and even then, Bush only beat a weak John Kerry by 51-49.

    The GOP has an uphill climb because it really has to change the Demographics. It has to convince working folks that they are not the party of the guy who lays you off, they have to win over minorities. (Keep in mind, McCain won the white vote in 2008, it was minorities that put Obama over the top.)

    Romney is not the guy to do this.
     
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    Last edited: Mar 25, 2012
  2. Mac1958
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    Mac1958 Platinum Member

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    True that.

    The GOP is doing nothing, saying nothing, to attract minorities or the working poor.

    .
     
  3. Seawytch
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    Seawytch Information isnt Advocacy

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    And what Demographic has Romney been winning solidly since the Primary started? Why, those making OVER 100K...he has that demographic locked down.
     
  4. iamwhatiseem
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    iamwhatiseem Gold Member

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  5. Old Rocks
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    Being one of those, in the very bottom, I might add, he really doesn't have those locked down, either. Most of us on the high end of middle class earning know which side our bread is buttered on. And Romney is not on that side.
     
  6. JoeB131
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    JoeB131 Diamond Member

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    I think Romney's problem is a little bigger than that.

    Most of the folks voting for Santorum and Gingrich right now will probably fall in line behind Romney.

    BUt Romney has to win over the folks who voted for Obama last time- or at least some of them.

    The GOP Establishment has insisted up and down the reason Republicans should vote for Romney despite the fact they don't trust him (for good reasons) was that he was "electable" (Despite losing more elections than he's ever won) and he's appealling to Independents (although in these primaries, turnout is actually DOWN from 2008).

    The GOP needs to change the tone, and that they aren't accomplishing by a longshot.
     
  7. Seawytch
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    Hollywood liberal. :tongue:
     
  8. California Girl
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    California Girl BANNED

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    The GOP needs to Santorum and Gingrich to step aside and let Romney focus on Obama.
     
  9. Oldstyle
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    Sorry guys but if you think that Barry has your back if you're in the Middle Class in this country then you're deluding yourself. Who do you think higher prices on gasoline and electricity is going to effect more...the so called 1%'ers or you? Our current President has been candid (until recently anyways) about his belief that $6 a gallon gasoline and higher prices on energy through Cap & Trade legislation is the way to force the US to adopt green energy alternatives to fossil fuels. Do you have any idea what his policies would do to the cost of living in this country if he got what he wanted? Everything would cost more because it all has to be produced using energy and transported using fuel. At the same time Barry's got the Fed printing dollars to pay for his deficits making the money you DO have in your pocket worth less and less.

    You REALLY think Barack Obama is your buddy? I think you're in for a rude awakening if he gets a second term.
     
  10. JoeB131
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    Your premise is that all that needs to happen is for "NotRomney" #5 and #6 need to get out of the way and people will start loving Romney.

    Romney is the problem. People don't like him. Not even Republicans. And if Republicans can't work up any love for this guy, don't expect anyone else to.

    Unfortunately, you all are kind of stuck with him, and it's your own damned fault.
     

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