Cammmpbell
Senior Member
- Sep 13, 2011
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Mitt Romney’s Defeat and the Republican Brand | Caffeinated Thoughts
The gender gap If you look at the exit polling objectively you can see we have a problem. Its nothing new, but when women made up 53% of voters its going to be a huge problem and it expanded in 2008. Women broke for Obama 55% to 45%. Now what I find interesting is that married women went with Romney 53% to 46%, those are the security moms. Romneys economic message resonated. They made up 31% of the electorate, but Romney was killed among non-married women which made up 23% of voters. They overwhelmingly went with the President 67% to 31%.
The race gap. Mitt Romney beat President Obama among Caucasian by 20 points. They made up 72% of the electorate which is a 3% drop from 2008 (with fewer voters). He still lost. Romney lost Hispanics (which made up 10% of the electorate which is a 2% increase from 2008) 71% to 27%. That is a four percent drop from what McCain had in 2008, and President Bush garnered, I believe, around 40% (I dont remember the exact number. There was a slight shift among Black voters (13% of the electorate). Romney picked up 2% percent than what McCain had in 2008, but it was still 93% to 6%, so nothing to write home about. Romney lost 73% to 26% among Asians (3% of the electorate), and among the others (2% of the electorate) President Obama had a 20 point advantage. Also among Catholics a group that over all saw movement toward Republicans this year, President Obama won this group by two points which is a 4% drop from 2008. Romney won among white Catholics by 19 points. President Obama won among Hispanic Catholics 75% to 21% gaining three points from 2008.
The base didnt turn out. That alone didnt sway the election, but when you consider Mitt Romney garnered about 1.7 million less votes than John McCain did in 2008 thats saying something. Romney needed to improve upon those numbers not receive less. President Obama had slightly more that 8 million less votes than he had in 2008 and he still won. It made for a closer race, but President Obama did a better job turning out his base than Mitt Romney did. The Washington Post exit poll shows that 38% of voters were Democrat while only 32% were Republicans. 29% were independent or third party. Why didnt they turn out? More on that later. Evangelicals represented 27% of the electorate nationally a record high and the same percentage of evangelicals went for Romney as did for President Bush in 2004 79%, but with fewer voters this time around (about 10-11 million) that 27% isnt nearly as impressive. So I cant say with certainty that the evangelical vote showed up like it could have. Then it also begs the question in what states did they turn out where it made a difference?
The youth vote. Mitt Romney made a five point gain among 18-29 year-olds who made up 19% of the electorate. He still lost 60% to 37%. Three percent voted some other way Ron Paul or Gary Johnson anyone?
ROTFL......maybe he needed Sarah Palin instead of Paul Ryan
The gender gap If you look at the exit polling objectively you can see we have a problem. Its nothing new, but when women made up 53% of voters its going to be a huge problem and it expanded in 2008. Women broke for Obama 55% to 45%. Now what I find interesting is that married women went with Romney 53% to 46%, those are the security moms. Romneys economic message resonated. They made up 31% of the electorate, but Romney was killed among non-married women which made up 23% of voters. They overwhelmingly went with the President 67% to 31%.
The race gap. Mitt Romney beat President Obama among Caucasian by 20 points. They made up 72% of the electorate which is a 3% drop from 2008 (with fewer voters). He still lost. Romney lost Hispanics (which made up 10% of the electorate which is a 2% increase from 2008) 71% to 27%. That is a four percent drop from what McCain had in 2008, and President Bush garnered, I believe, around 40% (I dont remember the exact number. There was a slight shift among Black voters (13% of the electorate). Romney picked up 2% percent than what McCain had in 2008, but it was still 93% to 6%, so nothing to write home about. Romney lost 73% to 26% among Asians (3% of the electorate), and among the others (2% of the electorate) President Obama had a 20 point advantage. Also among Catholics a group that over all saw movement toward Republicans this year, President Obama won this group by two points which is a 4% drop from 2008. Romney won among white Catholics by 19 points. President Obama won among Hispanic Catholics 75% to 21% gaining three points from 2008.
The base didnt turn out. That alone didnt sway the election, but when you consider Mitt Romney garnered about 1.7 million less votes than John McCain did in 2008 thats saying something. Romney needed to improve upon those numbers not receive less. President Obama had slightly more that 8 million less votes than he had in 2008 and he still won. It made for a closer race, but President Obama did a better job turning out his base than Mitt Romney did. The Washington Post exit poll shows that 38% of voters were Democrat while only 32% were Republicans. 29% were independent or third party. Why didnt they turn out? More on that later. Evangelicals represented 27% of the electorate nationally a record high and the same percentage of evangelicals went for Romney as did for President Bush in 2004 79%, but with fewer voters this time around (about 10-11 million) that 27% isnt nearly as impressive. So I cant say with certainty that the evangelical vote showed up like it could have. Then it also begs the question in what states did they turn out where it made a difference?
The youth vote. Mitt Romney made a five point gain among 18-29 year-olds who made up 19% of the electorate. He still lost 60% to 37%. Three percent voted some other way Ron Paul or Gary Johnson anyone?
ROTFL......maybe he needed Sarah Palin instead of Paul Ryan
