Democrats and Demographics

Discussion in 'Politics' started by PoliticalChic, Nov 4, 2010.

  1. PoliticalChic
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    PoliticalChic Diamond Member

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    Always interesting to contemplate the future after an innervating victory, such as the House turnovers…
    Consider the sources of liberal votes, the large cities along the coasts.

    1. 1. William O'Rourke of the Chicago Sun-Times: " George W. Bush's America — "Yahoo Nation"— contains not one major city, nor one primary center of creative and intellectual density." And "Al Gore's America is the country's great cities: New York, Boston, Washington, D.C., Chicago, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Philadelphia, Seattle."."if George W. becomes president, he will not have won one center of the thinking America, the teeming centers of creative and intellectual life." Nicholas Strakon: Yahoo Nation strikes back

    But, while liberals like O’Rouke love to point with great pride to the ‘centers of thinking America,’ it should be recognized how many Americans shun these ‘centers of crime and poverty,’ and, as the great Ronald Reagan said, ‘vote with their feet.’

    2. “But major metro areas are casting a declining share of the nation's votes, while fast-growing counties beyond metro-edge cities, with family-size subdivisions and megachurches, are heavily Republican… Democrats have made their greatest gains in the nation's very largest metropolitan areas. At the same time, Republicans have been gaining in rural areas and the fast-growing metropolitan fringe.” Michael Barone, http://www.usnews.com/usnews/issue/001106/6pol.htm

    3. These areas, with “with family-size subdivisions and megachurches,” termed ‘Sprinkler Cities” by David Brooks, are experiencing astounding growth, due to Americans looking to escape high taxes, bad schools, and still-high-priced homes.

    a. “Sprinkler Cities are the fast-growing suburbs mostly in the South and West that are the homes of the new style American Dream, the epicenters of Patio Man fantasies. Douglas County, Colorado, which is the fastest-growing county in America and is located between Denver and Colorado Springs, is a Sprinkler City…. Sprinkler Cities are also generally the most Republican areas of the country. In some of the Sprinkler City congressional districts, Republicans have a 2 or 3 or 4 to 1 registration advantage over Democrats... In fact, the rising prominence of these places heralds a new style of suburb vs. suburb politics, with the explosively growing Republican outer suburbs vying with the slower-growing and increasingly Democratic inner suburbs for control of the center of American political gravity.”
    Patio Man and the Sprawl People | The Weekly Standard

    b. Already, suburbanites make up about half of the country's population (while city people make up 28 percent and rural folk make up the rest), and America gets more suburban every year. According to the census data, the suburbs of America's 100 largest metro areas grew twice as fast as their central cities in the 1990s, and that was a decade in which many cities actually reversed their long population slides…. The majority of Asian Americans, half of Hispanics, and 40 percent of American blacks live in suburbia. Ibid.

    While the election of ’08 saw votes from every geographic and demographic for Barak Obama, and explanations for this multiply daily, the ’10 mid-terms may indicate that this was an aberration, outside of the trends suggested above.

    The next election may tell the growth outside of cities is a hint of dominance for the Republicans, or continuance of a divided polity.
     
  2. LiberalNut
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    LiberalNut Member

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    According to the census data, the suburbs of America's 100 largest metro areas grew twice as fast as their central cities in the 1990s

    Nice, tell me genius, which produces more votes, 3 million growing by 2% or 5 hundred thousand growing by 4%?

    There are less rich and upper middle class white people, relative to the population every day and dishonest games with percentages aren't gonna save you.
     
  3. PoliticalChic
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    PoliticalChic Diamond Member

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    I so much appreciate your self-identification as a liberal, so that it was not necessary for me to point out obnoxious style of your post, i.e. 'genius,' and 'dishonest games with percentages' rather than the kind of civil discourse that proper upbringing encourages.

    Further, I appeciate the opportunity it gives me to remind readers of a fundamental difference between liberals and conservatives:

    "Since Liberals see their view as a higher calling that that of Conservatives, they mistakenly believe that it is entirely appropriate for then to use, not logic, facts, nor accepted debating techniques, but ad hominem attacks on the physical appearance, personal history, or imaginary mental defects. Notice how the Liberal replaces intellect with emotion. This is, no doubt, based on a medieval concept of recognizing witches and demons. In fact, Liberals attempt to deal with opponents in similar fashion: recall Clarence Thomas’ “High Tech Lynching.”

    "...less rich and upper middle class white people,..."
    A definition of rich?
    A link to statistics which indicate same?

    Let's review:
    1. Half of the nation is suburban... more so, if one includes 'rural.'

    2. That half is growing faster than urban populations...largely because of the disastrous liberal policies instituted in the large cities.

    3. Republican genesis is far higher in these areas than Democrat genesis...

    3. You seem unable to contain your disappointment and rage over the drubbing your philosophy took in the House. And you should prepare for more of the same in the Senate in '12.
     
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  4. Dr.Traveler
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    Dr.Traveler Mathematician

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    My money is on this. It's looking like to 2010 election was a bit of a reversal of the trends that had been seen in 2004-2008.

    But I'm taking a lot of Demographics talk with a grain of salt. I knew a lot of left leaning people that took 2006 as a sign of the end of the GOP, and made the argument that 2008 *proved* they were right and that the GOP was heading towards a regional party role. I think the actual results of 2006 and 2010 show that that moderates and independents are looking for results. If you don't provide them, they vote you out and move on.

    I suspect, that we're probably the closest we've ever been to the right mix of circumstances for a third party.
     
  5. PoliticalChic
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    PoliticalChic Diamond Member

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    Here is some interesting evidence that leans toward your proposal: about 35 to 40 percent of those having voted Tuesday support the Tea Party...

    Of course, should this happen, the Democrats would be assured of victory.
     
  6. topspin
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    topspin BANNED

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    The AARP vote won it for the R's.
    Do what you say and it'll be a shoe in for 12, otherwise watch out for the younger voters.
     
  7. Dr.Traveler
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    In this environment, I'm not so sure. I think there's a great deal of voter anger with the DNC and the GOP combined. I'm still not sold on the idea that the Tea Party represents the moderates, but I do think that a real third party option could co-opt the Regean Democrats, the Blue Dogs, the Independents, and some of the Tea Party and end up marginalizing one or both parties in the current environment.

    It just seems like things are rocking back and forth too much for the current two party system to prove stable much longer.
     
  8. PoliticalChic
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    PoliticalChic Diamond Member

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    I don't know why you would think that the Tea Party represents 'moderates'...they have very definite ideas re: taxation, spending, size of government...

    On this topic:

    "It is undisputed that the Tea Party Movement helped drive the renewed Republican ... gains they saw. The exit polls reflect that data.

    ...embrace an earmarks moratorium. Incoming Speaker Boehner, man I love the sound of that, announced the House will definitely have an earmarks moratorium. Mitch McConnell says no way in the Senate.

    Jeb Hensarling as Conference Chair is a great start given his conservative bona fides and economics based background. I am hearing today that MIchelle Bachmann wants that too...

    Dr. Tom Price. Given that healthcare helped elect Republicans, having a doctor in that position ...

    Jack Kingston is the only man on the committee who, as an Appropriations Subcommittee Chairman, delivered a balanced budget, or one in surplus.

    tea party backed members like Jeff Flake, Tom Graves, and others should have seats on the Appropriations Committee...

    Fred Upton is lobbying heavily for the seat and that choice would be absolutely atrocious. Upton is a union lackey...If a man like Upton becomes Chairman, it will be a clear sign that the House GOP is all bluster."
    http://www.redstate.com/erick/2010/11/05/will-the-house-gop-break-apart-the-gop-tea-party-coalition/
     
    Last edited: Nov 5, 2010
  9. Mr. Shaman
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