Deeper and deeper into the greatest depression!

[Neubarth]

The Economic numbers as reported on Yahoo in the past few weeks and days.

RETAIL SALES
SEP 2009 DOWN - 1.5 %

DURABLE ORDERS
AUG 2009 DOWN -2.4%

FACTORY ORDERS
AUG 2009 DOWN –0.8%

NEW HOUSING STARTS (USED TO BE TWO MILLION A MONTH)
SEP 2009 590K
AUG 2009 598K

BUILDING PERMITS (USED TO BE TWO MILLION A MONTH)
SEP 09 573K
AUG 09 579K

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
DOWN 12% IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS.


OMG! A collapsing economy with DEFLATION! That happened in the Great Depression. so I guess this is now THE GREATEST DEPRESSION!!!

 

[Neubarth]

Foreclosures: 'Worst three months of all time'
Despite signs of broader economic recovery, number of foreclosure filings hit a record high in the third quarter - a sign the plague is still spreading.


By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
Last Updated: October 15, 2009: 7:34 AM ET


Foreclosure Crisis


The number of homes receiving foreclosure filings is skyrocketing across the country.




NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Despite concerted government-led and lender-supported efforts to prevent foreclosures, the number of filings hit a record high in the third quarter, according to a report issued Thursday.

"They were the worst three months of all time," said Rick Sharga, spokesman for RealtyTrac, an online marketer of foreclosed homes.

During that time, 937,840 homes received a foreclosure letter -- whether a default notice, auction notice or bank repossession, the RealtyTrac report said. That means one in every 136 U.S. homes were in foreclosure, which is a 5% increase from the second quarter and a 23% jump over the third quarter of 2008.

Nevada continued to be the worst-hit state with one filing for every 23 households. ....

 

[Neubarth]

The horrific foreclosure storm that we are presently in will further tank the economy. The houses when sold are frequently sold at auction and that further depresses house prices, and more people default as they see no sense in paying for a house that is worth ten and twenty percent than the loan. They stop paying and the cycle repeats itself.

Meanwhile commercial property foreclosures are rapidly increasing. thousands of businesses are failing every month and they are not paying their rent for their place of business.

We will see hundreds of banking failures because of the commercial collapse.

 

[The Rabbi]

"We're seeing demand begin to broaden out," Chief Financial Officer Kevin March said in a phone interview, citing stronger demand in the U.S. and Europe and in other such sectors as automotive and industrial.

"It's a good sign that that the economy has found a bottom," March added.

Texas Instruments rises on upbeat results - MarketWatch
I wont say you're wrong. There's still a lot of negatives out there. But it sure doesn't look like last September.

 

[Paulie]

"We're seeing demand begin to broaden out," Chief Financial Officer Kevin March said in a phone interview, citing stronger demand in the U.S. and Europe and in other such sectors as automotive and industrial.

"It's a good sign that that the economy has found a bottom," March added.

Texas Instruments rises on upbeat results - MarketWatch
I wont say you're wrong. There's still a lot of negatives out there. But it sure doesn't look like last September.

Oh man, that's gotta just about take the cake as one of the most brilliant analyses I've seen in this forum yet.

"It sure doesn't look like last September".

Thanks for being here, my man. If nothing else, you're providing me with comic relief.

 

[Procrustes Stretched]

what great depression? gawd, some people not only can't see the forest for the trees...they can't see at all when it comes to reality.

 

[Paulie]

what great depression? gawd, some people not only can't see the forest for the trees...they can't see at all when it comes to reality.

Who the hell are you?

 

[Zander]

The US Stock market has formed a perfect top over the last several weeks, and has hit resistance 6 times at just over 10,000 on the DOW. We have had 4 weeks of "optimistic news" yet the S&P has only gained 59 pts. (from 1039 to 1096). After a 64% increase since March this bear market rally is on its last legs. There is very little upside potential, but we could see some upward movement before the inevitable. Irrational markets can stay irrational for a long time! Once it starts, the downward correction we are headed for should be swift and brutal. I would not be surprised to see a 1000 point drop for the DOW in one day, followed by a steady decline toward the 6000 range.

Take a nice breath and enjoy the false optimism in the air, it will be last time you experience it for the next few years. We are headed for the double dip..... Investor sentiment is at 90% bullish according to trade-futures.com

Regarding the US Dollar: the US Dollar has formed a perfect bottom! It should rise quickly over the next 6 months as the world get rocked by wave 3 of the massive bear market and turns back to the Dollar as a safe haven. Current bull/bear sentiment on the dollar is 98% bearish , the lowest it has ever been. Naturally, if 98% of the experts are bearish I am bullish.

 

[Neubarth]

The US Stock market has formed a perfect top over the last several weeks, and has hit resistance 6 times at just over 10,000 on the DOW. We have had 4 weeks of "optimistic news" yet the S&P has only gained 59 pts. (from 1039 to 1096). After a 64% increase since March this bear market rally is on its last legs. There is very little upside potential, but we could see some upward movement before the inevitable. Irrational markets can stay irrational for a long time! Once it starts, the downward correction we are headed for should be swift and brutal. I would not be surprised to see a 1000 point drop for the DOW in one day, followed by a steady decline toward the 6000 range.

Take a nice breath and enjoy the false optimism in the air, it will be last time you experience it for the next few years. We are headed for the double dip..... Investor sentiment is at 90% bullish according to trade-futures.com

Regarding the US Dollar: the US Dollar has formed a perfect bottom! It should rise quickly over the next 6 months as the world get rocked by wave 3 of the massive bear market and turns back to the Dollar as a safe haven. Current bull/bear sentiment on the dollar is 98% bearish , the lowest it has ever been. Naturally, if 98% of the experts are bearish I am bullish.

A most accurate assessment of everything that you wrote about. I commend you your knowledge of the market.

 

[Neubarth]

what great depression? gawd, some people not only can't see the forest for the trees...they can't see at all when it comes to reality.

Who the hell are you?

Paulie, DevNell is just a flamer. No harm. For some people that is how they make their selves known in life. You might say it is their second of glory in a turned down world.

Now, if he wants to ask questions about the Depression, I am more than happy to talk to him.

 

[Neubarth]

"We're seeing demand begin to broaden out," Chief Financial Officer Kevin March said in a phone interview, citing stronger demand in the U.S. and Europe and in other such sectors as automotive and industrial.

"It's a good sign that that the economy has found a bottom," March added.

Texas Instruments rises on upbeat results - MarketWatch
I wont say you're wrong. There's still a lot of negatives out there. But it sure doesn't look like last September.

Holy man of learning, I have been seeing all the comments about "the economy has found a bottom" since Obama took his oath of office. So far, the data say otherwise. I will believe the data over the comments of any appointed official or any elected politician.

When people are not buying product, the economy sucks.

Shares of the Dallas-based chip giant TXN (TXN 23.62, -0.04, -0.17%) rose a fraction to close at $23.66, a day after TI reported a 4.4% drop in third-quarter profit...

That is what you call insane market euphoria. "We are losing sales and profits, but everything is wonderfull!"

Let me point out that Texas Instruments has lost 60 percent of their earnings, their stock price has the P/E all the way up to three times what it sould be, and the company is drastically cutting Research and Development in order to post earnings. This is one fucked up company, but people are buying the stock. Unbelievable!

Operating Expenses over the last four quarters.
Research Development 369,000 386,000 431,000 507,000
Selling General and Administrative 326,000 305,000 362,000 389,000
Non Recurring 85,000 105,000 254,000

 

[The Rabbi]

The data of course are subject to time lag. CEOs tend to see trends a lot faster.

It could go the way Zander says. But it would take some major event to spook everyone, like JP Morgan (which just announced huge earnings) filing bankruptcy.

Of course Obama has been pushing money on first time home buyers so it has helped the housing market. Now, those loans typically take 18 months to go bad, so there is still plenty f time.

I know that the economy always gives mixed signals in either direction. WHich direction we are in will only become clear in retrospect.

 

[JakeStarkey]

The nitwits of the witless far right keep talking nonsense. It is fun watching the run in circles flapping their hands uselessly. Their time is over.

 

[The Rabbi]

The nitwits of the witless far right keep talking nonsense. It is fun watching the run in circles flapping their hands uselessly. Their time is over.

Yet another excretory tidal wave from Jake, King of the Unsubstantiated Statement.

Don't you ever get tired of making idiotic pronouncements that are without substance?

 

[foggedinn]

Some pretty interesting comments in this thread. I agree with most. There are so many long term unsustainable economic and social trends happening in this country that I find it hard to believe it can go on for too much longer.

Paying for two nine year wars with a credit card isn't helping, regardless of what any may believe about their justification.

 

[Paulie]

But it would take some major event to spook everyone, like JP Morgan (which just announced huge earnings) filing bankruptcy.

JP Morgan filing bankruptcy?

Where the fuck do you come up with this shit?

JP Morgan is probably the second largest shareholder in the Fed, behind Goldman. And are also one of the most well capitalized banking institutions.

That's one of those things that an idiot says to try and make himself look like he knows DICK about ANYTHING. How easy is it to say "If JPM files bankruptcy, it would spook the market"??? Even Captain Obvious would cheap shot you on such a statement.

I'll be a billionaire before Morgan ever filed bankruptcy. There's a REASON they were delegated to the task of acquiring Bear Stearns.

It's amazing to watch the dumb get dumber. It never loses its entertainment value.

 

[Neubarth]

Home values are predicted to drop in 342 out of 381 markets during the next year, according to a new forecast of real estate price. Overall, the national median home price is predicted to drop 11.3% by June 30, 2010, according to Fiserv, a financial information and analysis firm.

 

[Big Black Dog]

The Economic numbers as reported on Yahoo in the past few weeks and days.

RETAIL SALES
SEP 2009 DOWN - 1.5 %

DURABLE ORDERS
AUG 2009 DOWN -2.4%

FACTORY ORDERS
AUG 2009 DOWN –0.8%

NEW HOUSING STARTS (USED TO BE TWO MILLION A MONTH)
SEP 2009 590K
AUG 2009 598K

BUILDING PERMITS (USED TO BE TWO MILLION A MONTH)
SEP 09 573K
AUG 09 579K

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
DOWN 12% IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS.


OMG! A collapsing economy with DEFLATION! That happened in the Great Depression. so I guess this is now THE GREATEST DEPRESSION!!!

Obama is going to save us. Just have two or three more slices of stimulus pie!

 

[Si modo]

The Economic numbers as reported on Yahoo in the past few weeks and days.

RETAIL SALES
SEP 2009 DOWN - 1.5 %

DURABLE ORDERS
AUG 2009 DOWN -2.4%

FACTORY ORDERS
AUG 2009 DOWN –0.8%

NEW HOUSING STARTS (USED TO BE TWO MILLION A MONTH)
SEP 2009 590K
AUG 2009 598K

BUILDING PERMITS (USED TO BE TWO MILLION A MONTH)
SEP 09 573K
AUG 09 579K

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
DOWN 12% IN THE PAST 12 MONTHS.


OMG! A collapsing economy with DEFLATION! That happened in the Great Depression. so I guess this is now THE GREATEST DEPRESSION!!!

Obama is going to save us. Just have two or three more slices of stimulus pie!

[ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JZOxqVl5oP4]YouTube - Barack Obama: Too Much Pie For One Guy[/ame]

 

[The Rabbi]

How much loss was there on 9/11? Seems like its well worth it to avoid more of that.
Anyway, the wars have little to do with it. Domestic spending is the culprit here, along with reduced tax revenues that will likely stay that way since there is little incentive to work more.