Debt begets debt

[likeabird03]

...Most of the major economic indicators were pointing downward by early 2008...

No they weren't. Of course there're an infinite number of indicators so it's always easy to pick more of the ones that agree with a particular agenda to prove a point. My point is we accept the economy as it is so we can feed ourselves and we play politics on our own time. That means we put a lot of stock in the GDP and unemployment, both of which were better in early 2008 than in late 2007.

Sure, we can also point to total private wealth (very important) which had fallen in early '08, but that had already been going on for year anyway so NBER's Dec. 07 date was at best arbitrary and capricious, and at worst politically mendacious.

GDP contracted in the first quarter of 2008, a fact I already illustrated, so that's an indicator that was pointing down, and a pretty important and broad indicator at that. Payrolls were contracting by early 2008, another hugely important indicator.

Industrial production was declining starting that quarter -

US Data Wrap-Up: Construction, Import Prices and Production in January « FXTimes – Forex News, Commentaries, Technical Analysis, Education, Live Events, and more!

Housing starts were continuing on their long drawn out decline-

So expat, I think that paints a pretty accurate overall picture. Unless you care to share any monthly data (not-rolling 12 mos averages or y/y averages since we're in a conversation about pinpointing it to a particular month/quarter) that shows otherwise.

 

[OohPooPahDoo]

DEBT BEGETS DEBT.

Obama is not the blame for the growing debt. Bush created the debt and it growth is result of Obama trying to fix it. Bush gave birth to the baby and now the baby is growing and Right Wing Congress is will not let Obama stop the baby from becoming a giant. Someone who is unemployed creates debt and if unemployment continue more debt is created and finally bankrupt and the only fix is a job. Obama slowed down the growth of the baby with the stimulus and bail our of those institutions “too important” to fail. It is not a giant yet but it will be if Right Wing Congress have it’s way. No matter who get the baby in 2012, the only fix is jobs not more tax cut, more government spending and more cut in entitlement programs. Our biggest economy growth was when government was spending, entitlement programs was in place and taxes was at a fair rate.

Bush’s baby continue to say; “feed me” and Right Wing Congress say “at your service.”

Hey lilolady - I still want you to explain to me why you handed a cashier a 5 dollar bill, a dime, and a penny for a $2.89 total.

... and then went online and complained about the cashier as if SHE was the stupid one.

 

[expat_panama]

...GDP contracted in the first quarter of 2008...

Huh.

Just checked the latest from the BEA and you're right, thanks for the heads up. I was looking at their earlier numbers that still had the 1st quarter expanding but evidently quarterly rates got changed with the annual gdp. My bad, I'm good with keeping up to date with new things as well as remembering how things have been, I'm just not as good with keeping up to date with all the new things in the past.

What we have is the BEA saying '08 was expanding, then the NBER people get presidential appointments right after they say '08 contracted, and a year later the BEA says '08 contracted. Some people would make a big stink about that but there's always the possibility that the contraction was genuine but hard to identify. On the one hand the numbers are weak, on the other hand they're the ones we've got, and on the other hand...

Reminds me of Truman on his fruitless search for what he called 'a one-handed economist'.