Death Freeze Grips Europe, Killing 80

[Old Rocks]

Another listing of weather events in 2010 precedes this statement

Dr. Jeff Masters' WunderBlog : 2010 - 2011: Earth's most extreme weather since 1816? : Weather Underground

When was the last time global weather was so extreme?
It is difficult to say whether the weather events of a particular year are more or less extreme globally than other years, since we have no objective global index that measures extremes. However, we do for the U.S.--NOAA's Climate Extremes Index (CEI), which looks at the percentage area of the contiguous U.S. experiencing top 10% or bottom 10% monthly maximum and minimum temperatures, monthly drought, and daily precipitation. The Climate Extremes Index rated 1998 as the most extreme year of the past century in the U.S. That year was also the warmest year since accurate records began in 1895, so it makes sense that the warmest year in Earth's recorded history--2010--was also probably one of the most extreme for both temperature and precipitation. Hot years tend to generate more wet and dry extremes than cold years. This occurs since there is more energy available to fuel the evaporation that drives heavy rains and snows, and to make droughts hotter and drier in places where storms are avoiding. Looking back through the 1800s, which was a very cool period, I can't find any years that had more exceptional global extremes in weather than 2010, until I reach 1816. That was the year of the devastating "Year Without a Summer"--caused by the massive climate-altering 1815 eruption of Indonesia's Mt. Tambora, the largest volcanic eruption since at least 536 A.D. It is quite possible that 2010 was the most extreme weather year globally since 1816.

Where will Earth's climate go from here?
The pace of extreme weather events has remained remarkably high during 2011, giving rise to the question--is the "Global Weirding" of 2010 and 2011 the new normal? Has human-caused climate change destabilized the climate, bringing these extreme, unprecedented weather events? Any one of the extreme weather events of 2010 or 2011 could have occurred naturally sometime during the past 1,000 years. But it is highly improbable that the remarkable extreme weather events of 2010 and 2011 could have all happened in such a short period of time without some powerful climate-altering force at work. The best science we have right now maintains that human-caused emissions of heat-trapping gases like CO2 are the most likely cause of such a climate-altering force.

 

[SFC Ollie]

 

[bripat9643]

That's all anecdotal evidence. It's scientifically invalid.

I already posted a scientific study showing that the incidence of severe hurricanes in Florida has decreased in the last 100 years. That study was scientific. It wasn't hysterical warmist propaganda intended to scare people and stampede them into voting for massive transfers of wealth and government control over the economy.

Weather swings that are wider and wilder, with an overall warming trend.

Only they aren't.

"Only they aren't" So that is what you have? All you have? Yes, you really are that stupid.

The Weird Wild Weather of 2010: Scientific American

The Weird Wild Weather of 2010

As we grapple with 2011's weather fare at home and abroad, let's review some of last year's remarkably severe, record-setting weather events from around the globe.

January 7, 2011
By Bill Chameides

As we grapple with 2011's weather fare at home (see here and here) and abroad (see here and here), let's review some of last year's remarkably severe, record-setting weather events from around the globe.

January and February

Record-breaking snowfall in northern Europe and the United States. Blizzards in Washington, D.C. -- dubbed "Snowmageddon" -- sparked all sorts of global-cooling speculation.

Record high temperatures in Melbourne, Australia. On January 11th temperatures never fell below 93 degrees Fahrenheit, making it the city's warmest night since 1902.

Rio de Janeiro's heat wave. The worst stretch of heat to hit the Brazilian city in 50 years saw temperatures peaking above 104 degrees Fahrenheit.

March and April

Deluges in the northeastern United States. March witnessed record-setting rain in New York City, Boston, and Portland, Maine. While 2010 precipitation levels broke records set in 1953 for all three locales, Providence, Rhode Island set a new all-time record for wettest month and, according to news reports, experienced its worst flooding in 200 years.

Heat waves in the northeastern United States. In early April, record high temperatures plagued several cities in the Northeast. April 7, 2010 became a red-letter day for Boston with the setting of a new high temperature and its new claim to fame as the earliest day of the year with a temperature of 90 degrees Fahrenheit or higher.

A late record-breaking snowstorm in New England. In late April record snowfall blanketed New England's northern reaches, setting new records for Burlington, Vermont.

June and August


Pakistan hit by its worst natural disaster ever. Monsoonal rains flooded large swaths of Asia, including North Korea and China. Starting in late July, Pakistan's flooded Indus River basin put as much as 17 million acres or one-fifth of the nation under water, killing some 2,000 people, displacing tens of millions, and devastating crops and livestock.


Oppressive heat waves across eastern U.S. and Canada. From July 4-7 temperatures soared above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, setting record high temperatures from North Carolina to Quebec, Canada. "On July 5th," according to the National Climatic Data Center, "Montfort Hospital in Ottawa, Canada reported the highest number of hospital visits ever recorded in a single day."

Russia devastated by heat, drought, and fire. Russia's hottest summer on record spawned record heat waves, massive droughts, and widespread wildfires that caused scores of deaths and led to a state of emergency. All in all, Russia's deadly heat wave, with its concurrent drought and fire, is estimated to have caused thousands of deaths, damaged 32 percent of the nation's crops, and caused $15 billion in economic losses.

Record cold freezes parts of South America. Polar air from the Antarctic lingered over the continent causing record-breaking lows in Buenos Aires, Argentina and Lima, Peru. In Bolivia, the record cold snap killed millions of aquatic animals, including fish, alligators, turtles and river dolphins.

Record heat roasts the Middle East and north Africa. Peak temperatures broke records in four countries, most notably in Iraq where the mercury hit 125.6 degrees Fahrenheit in Basra toppling its previous record from 1937.

September and October

Heat broils Los Angelenos. After a relatively cool summer, temperatures in L.A. spiked on September 27, sending the mercury to 113 degrees Fahrenheit and making it the city's hottest day ever.

First extreme dry, then extreme wet in Bangladesh. After experiencing one of its driest monsoon seasons in years, torrential storms battered Bangladesh from October 7th through October 9th, causing floods that displaced hundreds of thousands of Bangladeshis.

Drought hits Brazil. North and west Amazonia experienced one of the region's worst droughts in the past 40 years in October. The Black River, an important tributary to the Amazon River, dropped to its lowest level since record-keeping began in 1902.

November and December


Australia swamped by heavy rains. Intense rainfall beginning on December 20th has doused Queensland's new year with the worst flooding to hit Australia in a decade. Covering an area larger than Texas, the floods have affected roughly 200,000 people and caused thousands to be evacuated. Estimated losses expected to top $AU1 billion, including damages to cotton and sunflower crops.


Holiday blizzard slams U.S. East Coast. The sixth-largest snowfall to hit New York City left thousands stranded, as area travelers saw their holiday plans stymied and snowed-in NYC residents wondered where the plows were. (The missing plows gave birth to a new kind of scandal: plowgate.) Of all the states affected by the two-day storm, the Garden State's near-record snowfall in several cities saw the biggest accumulations.

 

[bripat9643]

It is difficult to say whether the weather events of a particular year are more or less extreme globally than other years, since we have no objective global index that measures extremes.

BINGO!

That's all that needed to be said.

 

[Old Rocks]

US Sets Extreme Weather Records in 2011 | USA | English

US Sets Extreme Weather Records in 2011

Events consistent with long-term global warming trends

 

[Old Rocks]

Bripat9643

That's all anecdotal evidence. It's scientifically invalid.

I already posted a scientific study showing that the incidence of severe hurricanes in Florida has decreased in the last 100 years. That study was scientific. It wasn't hysterical warmist propaganda intended to scare people and stampede them into voting for massive transfers of wealth and government control over the economy.
.................................................................................................................................

Really?

Hurricanes & Climate Change

About the past
There is observational evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures. There are also suggestions of increased intense tropical cyclone activity in some other regions where concerns over data quality are greater. Multi-decadal variability and the quality of the tropical cyclone records prior to routine satellite observations in about 1970 complicate the detection of long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity. There is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones."



About the future
"Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical SSTs. There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in numbers of tropical cyclones. The apparent increase in the proportion of very intense storms since 1970 in some regions is much larger than simulated by current models for that period."


Hurricanes and Climate Change

CCSP Reports:
Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. Final Report of Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3

Atlantic tropical cyclone (hurricane) activity, as measured by both frequency and the Power Dissipation Index (which combines storm intensity, duration, and frequency) has increased. The increases are substantial since about 1970, and are likely substantial since the 1950s and 60s, in association with warming Atlantic sea surface temperatures. There is less confidence in data prior to about 1950.

There have been fluctuations in the number of tropical storms and hurricanes from decade to decade, and data uncertainty is larger in the early part of the record compared to the satellite era beginning in 1965. Even taking these factors into account, it is likely that the annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in the North Atlantic have increased over the past 100 years, a time in which Atlantic sea surface temperatures also increased.

The evidence is less compelling for significant trends beginning in the late 1800s. The existing data for hurricane counts and one adjusted record of tropical storm counts both indicate no significant linear trends beginning from the mid- to late 1800s through 2005. In general, there is increasing uncertainty in the data as one proceeds back in time.

There is no evidence for a long-term increase in North American mainland land-falling hurricanes.
The hurricane Power Dissipation Index in the eastern Pacific, affecting the Mexican west coast and shipping lanes, has decreased since 1980, but rainfall from near-coastal hurricanes has increased since 1949.

It is very likely that the human-induced increase in greenhouse gases has contributed to the increase in sea surface temperatures in the hurricane formation regions. Over the past 50 years there has been a strong statistical connection between tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and Atlantic hurricane activity as measured by the Power Dissipation Index (which combines storm intensity, duration, and frequency). This evidence suggests a human contribution to recent hurricane activity. However, a confident assessment of human influence on hurricanes will require further studies using models and observations, with emphasis on distinguishing natural from human-induced changes in hurricane activity through their influence on factors such as historical sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and atmospheric vertical stability

It is likely that hurricane/typhoon wind speeds and core rainfall rates will increase in response to human-caused warming. Analyses of model simulations suggest that for each 1°C increase in tropical sea surface temperatures, hurricane surface wind speeds will increase by 1 to 8% and core rainfall rates by 6 to 18%.
Frequency changes are currently too uncertain for confident projections.
The spatial distribution of hurricanes/typhoons will likely change.
Storm surge levels are likely to increase due to projected sea level rise, though the degree of projected increase has not been adequately studied.

for the full report

Final Report, CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3: Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Weather swings that are wider and wilder, with an overall warming trend.

Only they aren't.

"Only they aren't" So that is what you have? All you have? Yes, you really are that stupid.

The Weird Wild Weather of 2010: Scientific American

The Weird Wild Weather of 2010

As we grapple with 2011's weather fare at home and abroad, let's review some of last year's remarkably severe, record-setting weather events from around the globe.

January 7, 2011
By Bill Chameides

As we grapple with 2011's weather fare at home (see here and here) and abroad (see here and here), let's review some of last year's remarkably severe, record-setting weather events from around the globe.

January and February

Record-breaking snowfall in northern Europe and the United States. Blizzards in Washington, D.C. -- dubbed "Snowmageddon" -- sparked all sorts of global-cooling speculation.

Record high temperatures in Melbourne, Australia. On January 11th temperatures never fell below 93 degrees Fahrenheit, making it the city's warmest night since 1902.

Rio de Janeiro's heat wave. The worst stretch of heat to hit the Brazilian city in 50 years saw temperatures peaking above 104 degrees Fahrenheit.

March and April

Deluges in the northeastern United States. March witnessed record-setting rain in New York City, Boston, and Portland, Maine. While 2010 precipitation levels broke records set in 1953 for all three locales, Providence, Rhode Island set a new all-time record for wettest month and, according to news reports, experienced its worst flooding in 200 years.

Heat waves in the northeastern United States. In early April, record high temperatures plagued several cities in the Northeast. April 7, 2010 became a red-letter day for Boston with the setting of a new high temperature and its new claim to fame as the earliest day of the year with a temperature of 90 degrees Fahrenheit or higher.

A late record-breaking snowstorm in New England. In late April record snowfall blanketed New England's northern reaches, setting new records for Burlington, Vermont.

June and August


Pakistan hit by its worst natural disaster ever. Monsoonal rains flooded large swaths of Asia, including North Korea and China. Starting in late July, Pakistan's flooded Indus River basin put as much as 17 million acres or one-fifth of the nation under water, killing some 2,000 people, displacing tens of millions, and devastating crops and livestock.


Oppressive heat waves across eastern U.S. and Canada. From July 4-7 temperatures soared above 100 degrees Fahrenheit, setting record high temperatures from North Carolina to Quebec, Canada. "On July 5th," according to the National Climatic Data Center, "Montfort Hospital in Ottawa, Canada reported the highest number of hospital visits ever recorded in a single day."

Russia devastated by heat, drought, and fire. Russia's hottest summer on record spawned record heat waves, massive droughts, and widespread wildfires that caused scores of deaths and led to a state of emergency. All in all, Russia's deadly heat wave, with its concurrent drought and fire, is estimated to have caused thousands of deaths, damaged 32 percent of the nation's crops, and caused $15 billion in economic losses.

Record cold freezes parts of South America. Polar air from the Antarctic lingered over the continent causing record-breaking lows in Buenos Aires, Argentina and Lima, Peru. In Bolivia, the record cold snap killed millions of aquatic animals, including fish, alligators, turtles and river dolphins.

Record heat roasts the Middle East and north Africa. Peak temperatures broke records in four countries, most notably in Iraq where the mercury hit 125.6 degrees Fahrenheit in Basra toppling its previous record from 1937.

September and October

Heat broils Los Angelenos. After a relatively cool summer, temperatures in L.A. spiked on September 27, sending the mercury to 113 degrees Fahrenheit and making it the city's hottest day ever.

First extreme dry, then extreme wet in Bangladesh. After experiencing one of its driest monsoon seasons in years, torrential storms battered Bangladesh from October 7th through October 9th, causing floods that displaced hundreds of thousands of Bangladeshis.

Drought hits Brazil. North and west Amazonia experienced one of the region's worst droughts in the past 40 years in October. The Black River, an important tributary to the Amazon River, dropped to its lowest level since record-keeping began in 1902.

November and December


Australia swamped by heavy rains. Intense rainfall beginning on December 20th has doused Queensland's new year with the worst flooding to hit Australia in a decade. Covering an area larger than Texas, the floods have affected roughly 200,000 people and caused thousands to be evacuated. Estimated losses expected to top $AU1 billion, including damages to cotton and sunflower crops.


Holiday blizzard slams U.S. East Coast. The sixth-largest snowfall to hit New York City left thousands stranded, as area travelers saw their holiday plans stymied and snowed-in NYC residents wondered where the plows were. (The missing plows gave birth to a new kind of scandal: plowgate.) Of all the states affected by the two-day storm, the Garden State's near-record snowfall in several cities saw the biggest accumulations.

 

[Liability]

AGW in song:

"... The Sun so hot,
I froze to death ...."

 

[bripat9643]

Here's the thread showing the severe hurricane frequency is decreasing.

http://www.usmessageboard.com/polit...a-hurricanes-decreased-in-last-600-years.html

Bripat9643

That's all anecdotal evidence. It's scientifically invalid.

I already posted a scientific study showing that the incidence of severe hurricanes in Florida has decreased in the last 100 years. That study was scientific. It wasn't hysterical warmist propaganda intended to scare people and stampede them into voting for massive transfers of wealth and government control over the economy.
.................................................................................................................................

Really?

Hurricanes & Climate Change

About the past
There is observational evidence for an increase of intense tropical cyclone activity in the North Atlantic since about 1970, correlated with increases of tropical sea surface temperatures. There are also suggestions of increased intense tropical cyclone activity in some other regions where concerns over data quality are greater. Multi-decadal variability and the quality of the tropical cyclone records prior to routine satellite observations in about 1970 complicate the detection of long-term trends in tropical cyclone activity. There is no clear trend in the annual numbers of tropical cyclones."



About the future
"Based on a range of models, it is likely that future tropical cyclones (typhoons and hurricanes) will become more intense, with larger peak wind speeds and more heavy precipitation associated with ongoing increases of tropical SSTs. There is less confidence in projections of a global decrease in numbers of tropical cyclones. The apparent increase in the proportion of very intense storms since 1970 in some regions is much larger than simulated by current models for that period."


Hurricanes and Climate Change

CCSP Reports:
Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate. Regions of Focus: North America, Hawaii, Caribbean, and U.S. Pacific Islands. Final Report of Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3

Atlantic tropical cyclone (hurricane) activity, as measured by both frequency and the Power Dissipation Index (which combines storm intensity, duration, and frequency) has increased. The increases are substantial since about 1970, and are likely substantial since the 1950s and 60s, in association with warming Atlantic sea surface temperatures. There is less confidence in data prior to about 1950.

There have been fluctuations in the number of tropical storms and hurricanes from decade to decade, and data uncertainty is larger in the early part of the record compared to the satellite era beginning in 1965. Even taking these factors into account, it is likely that the annual numbers of tropical storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes in the North Atlantic have increased over the past 100 years, a time in which Atlantic sea surface temperatures also increased.

The evidence is less compelling for significant trends beginning in the late 1800s. The existing data for hurricane counts and one adjusted record of tropical storm counts both indicate no significant linear trends beginning from the mid- to late 1800s through 2005. In general, there is increasing uncertainty in the data as one proceeds back in time.

There is no evidence for a long-term increase in North American mainland land-falling hurricanes.
The hurricane Power Dissipation Index in the eastern Pacific, affecting the Mexican west coast and shipping lanes, has decreased since 1980, but rainfall from near-coastal hurricanes has increased since 1949.

It is very likely that the human-induced increase in greenhouse gases has contributed to the increase in sea surface temperatures in the hurricane formation regions. Over the past 50 years there has been a strong statistical connection between tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and Atlantic hurricane activity as measured by the Power Dissipation Index (which combines storm intensity, duration, and frequency). This evidence suggests a human contribution to recent hurricane activity. However, a confident assessment of human influence on hurricanes will require further studies using models and observations, with emphasis on distinguishing natural from human-induced changes in hurricane activity through their influence on factors such as historical sea surface temperatures, wind shear, and atmospheric vertical stability

It is likely that hurricane/typhoon wind speeds and core rainfall rates will increase in response to human-caused warming. Analyses of model simulations suggest that for each 1°C increase in tropical sea surface temperatures, hurricane surface wind speeds will increase by 1 to 8% and core rainfall rates by 6 to 18%.
Frequency changes are currently too uncertain for confident projections.
The spatial distribution of hurricanes/typhoons will likely change.
Storm surge levels are likely to increase due to projected sea level rise, though the degree of projected increase has not been adequately studied.

for the full report

Final Report, CCSP Synthesis and Assessment Product 3.3: Weather and Climate Extremes in a Changing Climate

 

[CrusaderFrank]

Heat, cold and Giant Squirrels....global warming...has to be